The Economy
The Overview
Glass half full. "Record exports and the smallest trade deficit in four years. Healthier consumer spending, including the strongest annual increase in automobile sales since 2007, spurred by a booming stock market and an improving housing sector. And a slow but steady pickup in job creation that has pushed unemployment to its lowest level since 2008. The confluence of all these forces in recent weeks has prompted economists to sharply revise their expectations for growth in late 2013 and early 2014, and prompted hopes that a more sustained economic expansion has finally arrived." Nelson D. Schwartz at the New York Times.
Better than Bush. "Now that we have 12 months of job data, we can ask a different question: how did 2013 shape up? In all, the U.S. economy added 2.186 million jobs last year, while the private sector created 2.213 million. Looking back over the last couple of decades, that means when it comes to the overall economy, 2013 was the best year for jobs in the United States since 2005 and the second best year since 1999. That’s right: last year, the economy created more jobs than seven of the eight years Bush/Cheney was in office. This is not to say 2013 was a banner year for jobs; it’s more the result of the job landscape struggling badly during the Bush/Cheney era." Steve Benen at Maddowblog.
The unemployment rate is improving - for the wrong reasons. "The headline unemployment rate number fell 0.3 points to 6.7% This is the lowest unemployment rate since October 2008, one month after Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy. The number of adults reported as unemployed fell 490,000, also reaching a low not seen since October 2008. Unfortunately, less than a third of the decline can be traced to an increase in the number of adults who say they are employed. The other two-thirds was due to a drop in the size of the labor force … Over the past 12 months the U.S. labor force has shrunk almost 550,000 and the labor force participation rate has dropped 0.8 percentage points." Gary Burtless at Brookings.
Three theories explaining the decline of the labor force. Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.
On the lack of economic consensus in Congress. "The contention over unemployment insurance and the minimum wage reflects the larger problem in American politics. Rather than discussing what we need to do to secure our future, we are spending most of our energy re-litigating the past. A substantial part of the conservative movement is now determined to blow up the national consensus that has prevailed since the Progressive and New Deal eras. The consensus envisions a capitalist economy tempered by government intervention to reduce inequities and soften the cruelties that the normal workings of the market can sometimes inflict." E.J. Dionne Jr. at the Washington Post.
Federal Reserve
Breaking another glass ceiling, with a difficult task ahead. "The Senate confirmed Janet L. Yellen as the chairwoman of the Federal Reserve on Monday, marking the first time that a woman will lead the country’s central bank in its 100-year history. As a Fed official, Ms. Yellen, 67, has been an influential proponent of the Fed’s extraordinary measures to revive the economy, even though interest rates are already close to zero. But as chairwoman, Ms. Yellen will face the arduous task of overseeing the gradual unwinding of those measures, despite an uncomfortably high unemployment rate of 7 percent and subdued inflation." Annie Lowrey at the New York Times.
Housing
The most successful housing program that you've never heard of. "Of all of the various government housing programs run by various federal agencies -- Federal Housing Administration, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Housing and Urban Development and, of course, Fannie Mae -- HARP is the most effective and efficient one out there. Odds are you have never even heard of the Home Affordable Refinance Program. And that is a shame, because it is doing what it was designed to do: Help qualified homeowners refinance underwater homes and avoid foreclosure." Barry Ritholtz at Bloomberg.
SNAP
The health consequences of SNAP cuts. "Doctors have a message for congressional lawmakers inching toward a compromise farm bill that would cut food stamps by nine billion dollars: It’s a terrible idea. “If you’re interested in saving health care costs, the dumbest thing you can do is cut nutrition,” Dr. Deborah Frank of Boston Medical Center explained … Doctors and researchers say that additional cuts on the horizon could increase the incidence of medical problems stemming in part from food insecurity, particularly diabetes and its related conditions." Sy Mukherjee at Think Progress.
5 facts about SNAP. Fred Dews at Brookings.
Unemployment Benefits
The fight to extend unemployment benefits continues. "Negotiations over the extension of unemployment benefits for the long-term jobless suffered a major setback in the Senate … as competing plans to pay the costs of the extension began to emerge ... Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid ... scheduled a showdown vote on the new proposal for next Monday. Democrats need at least five GOP senators to cross the aisle and support the plan, but they appear to lack the support of several of the key six Republicans who previously supported advancing the bill and have now said they are very likely to vote against the new proposal." Paul Kane at the Washington Post.
Dems are skeptical of horse-trading for the extension - for good reason. "Republicans are throwing a wrench into the debate over unemployment benefits by insisting that spending cuts offset any extension of federal aid for the long-term jobless … For Democrats, setting a precedent that federal long-term unemployment benefits must be paid for opens up a can of trouble. It means that the benefits are no longer driven by economic and employment conditions but by the condition of the federal budget. Generally, tight-employment economies translate to tight budgets, which means it becomes infinitely harder for lawmakers to approve additional benefits." Fawn Johnson at the National Journal.
Reid's take-it-or-leave-it approach may harm Senate passage. "Mr. Reid's move, though intended as a compromise, didn't put the legislation on a clear road to passage. Republicans who might join in backing the bill said they were enraged that Mr. Reid was pushing it through the Senate without allowing them to offer amendments of their own during floor debate … Even before Republicans could engage on the substance of the bill, they were angered when Mr. Reid blocked any further amendments—a strategy that leaders of both political parties have used, but which has drawn increasing fire from Republicans during Mr. Reid's tenure as Senate leader." Janet Hook at the Wall Street Journal.
And the House is about as useless as usual. "President Barack Obama’s desire to renew emergency jobless benefits is running into a familiar avalanche of indifference: the House. House Republicans are showing little appetite, urgency and interest in extending the program, and are hinting that they are content to let the issue disappear if the Senate fails to pass its own legislation." Jake Sherman at Politico.
War on Poverty
Here's where we stand, thanks to the GOP. "What hasn’t changed is the ... Republican economic agenda in either the long run or the short run ... The near-term agenda remains completely unaltered. Republicans remain unified in their desire to cut food stamps and end emergency unemployment benefits unless offset by other cuts to domestic spending. Nearly all support ongoing state-based campaigns to deny Medicaid coverage to uninsured people too poor to qualify for tax credits to buy private insurance. The awkwardness of the current moment is that Republicans have yet to agree on any kind of alternative policy framework for anti-poverty policy." Jonathan Chait at New York Magazine.
The War on Poverty worked, and the GOP is wrong. "The Great Society brought federal billions to schools, made college possible for millions of kids from modest means, educated innumerable doctors, and so much more … The political problem is that Americans don’t know about or focus on these successes. They just know that we tried, and poverty still exists. Thus has the 'war' frame ended up being extremely handy for conservatives, who will always be able to point to the existence of poor people and therefore to make the claim that the whole thing has been a failure." Michael Tomasky at the Daily Beast.
Anti-poverty programs have been quite successful during the recession. "Yet poverty still exists. The official measure stands at 15 percent … This benchmark really gets to the question of the effectiveness of anti-poverty policies — absent those policies, the 2012 rate would be 29 percent, meaning that the value of food stamps, unemployment benefits, the earned-income tax credit, housing subsidies and more lifted 13 percent of the population — 40 million people — out of poverty that year … The American safety net is actively helping millions of economically disadvantaged families, and we should protect and improve it." Jared Bernstein at Economix.
We can't fully overcome poverty until we overcome inequality. "And if progress against poverty has ... been disappointingly slow — which it has — blame rests not with the poor but with a changing labor market, one that no longer offers good wages to ordinary workers … The bottom third of the American work force has seen little or no rise in inflation-adjusted wages since the early 1970s ... This wage stagnation, not social decay, is the reason poverty has proved so hard to eradicate … The problem of poverty has become part of the broader problem of rising income inequality, of an economy in which all the fruits of growth seem to go to a small elite, leaving everyone else behind." Paul Krugman at the New York Times.
Miscellaneous
This can't be good. "Even dollar stores are getting too expensive for low-income shoppers. Family Dollar Stores Inc. ... said Thursday that it has to lower prices and ditch a strategy of using promotions to woo customers … The tactical shift led Family Dollar to cut its profit outlook for the year and highlights the continuing pressure on lower-income shoppers, who continue to suffer from tepid job growth, higher payroll taxes and the loss of government assistance programs like food stamps." Paul Ziobro at the Wall Street Journal.
The Target hacking scandal gets worse. "Target has updated its estimate of the number of customers affected by a massive data breach last month, saying that the personal information of as many as 70 million people was compromised as a result of the hack. The type of information breached now includes names, phone numbers and postal and e-mail addresses, according to a Target blog post. The new figure is separate from the 40-million-person breach Target announced last month. Not everyone who was affected by the previously-reported breach may be affected by this new revelation, though there is likely to be overlap between the two groups." Brian Fung at the Switch.
Chris Christie
The story thus far. "A contrite New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie apologized Thursday for a scandal that threatens his political future, announcing that he had fired a senior aide and banished his top campaign adviser for their roles in days of traffic jams orchestrated to punish a small-city Democratic mayor. Christie ... insisted he had no involvement in shutting down a pair of access lanes to the heavily trafficked George Washington Bridge over four days in early September. The Republican governor said he was 'blindsided' by this week’s release of e-mails and text messages detailing his office’s role in the plot to create severe gridlock in Fort Lee, N.J." Robert Costa and Philip Rucker at the Washington Post.
The end of Christie 2016? "His scandals would make him vulnerable in a general-election matchup … Why would they circle around a candidate teeming with corruption scandals, when they could instead nominate a more conservative alternative with a more attractive personal image? … Christie faces enormous, interrelated vulnerabilities … Christie's post-Sandy personal embrace of Obama … issue deviations on Obamacare and guns, and his potentially large number of scandals look like separate problems. To a Republican voter, they are many aspects of the same thing: a man who can't be trusted." Jonathan Chait at New York Magazine.
The governor's political assets are becoming weaker. "His longer-term political problem is likely to be from his own party, where the scandal is giving a legion of under-the-radar Christie skeptics room to criticize the governor … The other factor that fueled the Christie boomlet ... was a perception that he's the most electable Republican presidential candidate … His broad campaign coalition, winning over Hispanics and women, was viewed as a model for successful national candidates to emulate. If Christie's sky-high popularity begins to fray, he loses the very assets that propelled him into the national conversation." Josh Kraushaar at the National Journal.
10 things you should know about Bridge-Gate. Aaron Blake at the Fix.
The traffic study excuse is about as incoherent as it gets. "Traffic studies, which forecast the effect of new developments or changes in roadway configurations on the flow of vehicles, can sometimes be political documents. Usually, the consultants who prepare the studies are paid by the people building the project for which they're required, so they have every incentive to show the project won't have any noticeable impact. In this case, however, the traffic study should never have been a viable excuse -- anybody who knows anything about them would realize that a traffic study could never turn a bridge into a parking lot, because traffic studies rarely involve actually doing anything to traffic." Lydia DePillis at Wonkblog.
Maybe it wasn't about the gubernatorial election - toward an alternate theory of the Christie scandal. Steve Benen at Maddowblog.
Politics
Abortion
GOP anti-abortion tactic is super useless, according to the data. Shocker. "Forced ultrasound laws have become a popular tactic at the state level ... Abortion opponents claim this step is necessary because, if women have the opportunity to see an image of their fetus, they’ll suddenly change their mind about ending a pregnancy. But the actual scientific evidence ... doesn’t back up that claim. According to a new study published in the journal Obstetrics & Gynecology ... the vast majority of women who seek out abortion services have already made up their mind. Looking an images of an ultrasound doesn’t sway them." Tara Culp-Ressler at Think Progress.
Congress
Don't blame polarization for gridlock. "Pronouncements about the 'polarized' electorate as the cause of stalemate seem too simplistic … 'Polarization doesn’t mean the public is evenly divided in its support for both parties’ positions. On many important issues, including raising the minimum wage, extending unemployment benefits, raising taxes on upper income Americans as part of a deficit reduction deal, and increasing spending on education and infrastructure, substantial majorities of voters, including large numbers of Republicans, support the Democratic agenda. The gridlock in Congress is largely the result of polarization that is asymmetric.'" Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.
Well, this is a new milestone. And not a good one. "For the first time in history, more than half the members of the House and Senate are now millionaires, according to a new analysis of financial disclosure reports filed last year. The median net worth for lawmakers in the House and Senate was $1,008,767 — up 4.4 percent, according to the analysis, conducted by the nonprofit Center for Responsive Politics, which examines the influence of money on politics in Washington. Over all, at least 268 of the 534 current members of Congress had an average net worth of $1 million or more in 2012." Eric Lipton at the New York Times.
DOD
Helicopter truck. I repeat, helicopter truck. "It's a lot easier to 'leave no man behind' when the rescue crew is robotic. Advanced Tactics, an El Segundo-based firm, plans to test a remotely operated, transforming, flying, driving evacuation vehicle early this year. It's not quite a drone, but it's not really a truck or a helicopter either. It's called the Black Night Transformer ... The transformation is relatively subtle—eight rotors, four on each side, will spring out for takeoff, fold in for driving through tighter streets, and tilt forward in the air for faster flight." Kelsey D. Atherton at Popular Science.
Navy drones sound pretty cool. "The Navy has been seeking … a way to do underwater what the Air Force has been doing in the sky: prowl stealthily for long periods of time, and gather the kind of data that could turn the tide in war. The Navy’s goal is to send an underwater drone, which it calls a 'glider,' on a roller-coaster-like path for up to five years. A fleet of them could swarm an enemy coastline, helping the Navy hunt down minefields and target enemy submarines. Unlike their airborne cousins, Navy gliders are not powered by aviation fuel. Instead, they draw energy from the ocean’s thermocline, a pair of layers of warm water near the surface and chillier water below." Mark Thompson at Time.
Um… This is concerning. "Two missileers from the 341st Missile Wing at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Mont., have been implicated in a narcotics investigation ... The incident is the latest in a string of embarrassments for the Air Force’s nuclear missile force ... The former commander of 20th Air Force in charge of the nation’s nuclear missiles … was removed from command after a series of drunken incidents ... RAND Corp. last fall released the findings of an Air Force-commissioned study that found deep morale issues in the nuclear missile force, including burnout and a court-martial rate among the missile force in 2011 and 2012 that was more than twice as high as the overall Air Force rate." Andrew Tilghman and Brian Everstine at the Air Force Times.
Elections
The lie that is the 'independent.' "You won’t see a large number of successful independent candidates next November, nor will many Democratic or Republican candidates distance themselves from their own party … Despite the apparent rise in independent identification, Americans are actually becoming more rather than less partisan in their behavior. Yes, even 'independents.' … When pressed, the vast majority of Americans who initially identify themselves as political independents acknowledge that they lean toward one party or the other. Almost three-fourths of independents surveyed by Gallup during 2013 indicated that they leaned toward one of the two major parties." Alan Abramowitz at Politico.
A growing number of liberals. "Liberal identification edged up to its highest level since Gallup began regularly measuring ideology ... in 1992 … Americans' perceptions of their political views -- if not the views themselves -- are undergoing unmistakable change ... Now, the plurality of Democrats consider themselves to be politically liberal, whereas a decade ago, Democrats were most likely to say they were moderate. That could be because Democrats are now more comfortable calling themselves 'liberal' ... even if their ... views on issues are similar. But it could also reflect an evolution in their views to favor more traditionally liberal issue positions." Jeffrey M. Jones at Gallup.
Americans may not love their own political parties, but they hate the other side. "Political scientist Alan Abramowitz … finds that although voters do not identify with their own political party more strongly than they did in the late 1970s, the intensity of their preference for their own party has surged during that period. The reason is clear: Disapproval of the opposing party has risen sharply. In 1978, almost 30% of the electorate felt as warm about the opposing party as about their own. By 2012, fewer than 15% felt that way, while the percentage of voters expressing extreme antipathy to the opposing party tripled." William Galston at the Wall Street Journal.
Embracing Obamacare. "The rollout of Obamacare in Kentucky may represent the most interesting experiment in the politics of health care in the country right now. Dem governor Steve Beshear is perhaps the most outspoken defender of the Affordable Care Act in the south. This, in a deep red state where the reform known as 'Obamacare' is deeply unpopular; where the leading foe of the President’s agenda is on the ballot this year; and where the need for reform is urgent … Beshear offered fellow Dems ... some startling advice: Stand up for Obamacare because it’s the right thing to do. What’s more, Beshear insists, Republicans are wrong: the health law will be a political positive for Dems next fall." Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.
Battle lines are being drawn in Hawaii. "The biggest test of this cycle comes in Hawaii, where Sen. Brian Schatz (D) is fighting to keep the seat Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) appointed him to over the dying wishes of Sen. Daniel Inouye (D). The revered senator’s deathbed request was that Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D) take his place … Now, Hanabusa is giving up her safe seat to mount a campaign against Schatz, and she has the enthusiastic blessing of Inouye’s family and his widow, Irene Hirano Inouye … Whoever prevails though, Republicans have no chance of winning in the heavily Democratic Hawaii." Jessica Taylor at the Hill.
Foreign Policy
The Iran deal moves forward. "Iran and a group of six world powers moved closer on Friday to carrying out the nuclear agreement reached in November, with the Iranian side saying all outstanding issues have been resolved. The agreement, which still requires final approval by all the governments, would temporarily halt some of Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for billions of dollars in sanctions relief." Rick Gladstone at the New York Times.
US deploys military advisers to Somalia to fight Al-Shabab. "The U.S. military secretly deployed a small number of trainers and advisers to Somalia in October, the first time regular troops have been stationed in the war-ravaged country since 1993, when two helicopters were shot down and 18 Americans killed in the 'Black Hawk Down' disaster. A cell of U.S. military personnel has been in the Somali capital of Mogadishu to advise and coordinate operations with African troops fighting to wrest control of the country from the al-Shabab militia, an Islamist group whose leaders have professed loyalty to al-Qaeda, according to three U.S. military officials." Craig Whitlock at the Washington Post.
Health
Obamacare will now cover breast cancer prevention drugs. "Certain medications that are intended to prevent breast cancer will be fully covered under Obamacare, in new guidance set to be issued by the Department of Health and Human Services Thursday morning. Women at increased risk of breast cancer can receive so-called chemoprevention drugs, including tamoxifen and raloxifene, without a co-pay or other out-of-pocket expense." Amanda Terkel at the Huffington Post.
LGBT Rights
Hey, House GOP - can we not do this? Because this is unbelievably stupid. "A good chunk of the House Republican caucus has come up with an idea: DOMA, the sequel. Rep. Randy Weber (R-Texas) and 27 other Republicans have proposed legislation that would prevent the federal government from recognizing same-sex marriages for couples who live in states that do not permit these unions." Steve Benen at Maddowblog.
Federal government to recognize Utah marriages while the legal battles continue. "The federal government will recognize the marriages of same-sex couples who married in Utah in recent week … Approximately 1,360 same-sex couples married between Dec. 20, 2013 — when U.S. District Court Judge Robert J. Shelby found the state’s ban on same-sex couples’ marriages to be unconstitutional — and this Monday, when the Supreme Court put new marriages of same-sex couples on hold pending the state’s appeal of Shelby’s ruling." Chris Geldner at Buzzfeed.
SCOTUSwatch
Everything you need to know about National Labor Relations Board v. Noel Canning. Lyle Denniston at SCOTUSblog.
The impact of appointment powers. "At issue is the scope of the president’s power under the Constitution’s 'Recess Appointments Clause,' through which the president can make temporary executive and judicial appointments during Senate recesses, without Senate confirmation … The loss of this important tool would profoundly alter the balance of power between the president and the Senate … A future Senate majority hostile to the president could dramatically impede the confirmation process for nominated executive officials and judges … As has been true throughout history, the Recess Appointments Clause thus plays an important role as a backstop to ensure functioning government." Alicia Bannon and David Earley at the Brennan Center for Justice.
Conservative hypocrisy at its finest. "Two authors of the Speaker’s brief … are certainly familiar with the recess appointments issue. After all, they argued the complete opposite in 2004, when they submitted a brief supporting the validity of President George W. Bush’s recess appointment of William Pryor ... Conservatives have not only switched their position, they have come out in force in an attempt to stymie President Obama’s ability to do his job … This hypocrisy and flip-flopping is all the more strange because ... it’s been conservatives … who have been pushing for a broad reading of powers granted to the President. That seems to have gone out the window with President Obama." Elizabeth B. Wydra at the Constitutional Accountability Center.
Space
Everything you need to know about the International Space Station - and the decision to extend its lifespan. Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.
The States
West Virginia
International
Global
Human trafficking isn't just for sex anymore. "If most people think human trafficking is all about sexual exploitation, the mistake is understandable … As an International Labor Organization study found in 2012, more than three-quarters of trafficking victims in the global private economy are exploited for labor ... Much of this is tied to … the grim world of illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing. Vessels engaged in illegal, unregulated fishing not only steal precious food resources off the coasts of poor countries, engage in drug smuggling and damage marine ecosystems — they also prey on human beings, trapping workers on boats as slaves." Mark P. Lagon at the Washington Post.
Global child marriage. "International conventions prohibit child marriage and define eighteen as the age of adulthood. These laws are based on the argument that children and adolescents are not mature enough to make choices about marriage, and that marrying too young can lead to lasting emotional, physical, and psychological harm. Moreover, development experts say child marriage stunts girls' educational opportunities and income-earning prospects, and perpetuates poverty … Child marriage transcends regional and cultural boundaries. Across developing countries, an estimated one in three girls is married before turning eighteen, and one in nine before fifteen." The Council on Foreign Relations.
Global obesity is mostly occurring in poor countries, not wealthy ones. "A new report from the Britain-based Overseas Development Group on changing global diets finds that there are now more than twice as many overweight or obese people living in the developing world as in wealthy countries. Overall, the number of affected people in developing countries 'more than tripled from around 250 million people in 1980 to 904 million in 2008. By contrast, the number of people who were overweight or obese in high-income countries increased 1.7 times over the same period.'" Joshua Keating at Slate.
Africa
Not all failing states imply genocide. And that difference is important. "When France decided to send soldiers to the Central African Republic … it did the right thing for the wrong reason … The country doesn’t face genocide; it is experiencing state collapse and limited intercommunal killings after a military takeover by a coalition of undisciplined militiamen … There haven’t been large-scale and systematic massacres, and the killings are driven by the contingencies of fear, not a deeply nurtured intent to destroy another ethnic group … Most important, if the label 'genocide' is readily applied to any situation of ethnic strife and governmental breakdown, it will lose its ... special moral force." Alex de Waal at the New York Times.
The leaders of the CAR resign. "Central African Republic's interim leaders caved in to international pressure and resigned on Friday after failing to halt inter-religious violence, prompting street celebrations but also questions over who would step in to take charge. The resignations of President Michel Djotodia and Prime Minister Nicolas Tiangaye came at a two-day summit of the Economic Community of Central African States (CEEAC) in neighboring Chad … Thousands of people have been killed and a million displaced since abuses by Djotodia's mainly Muslim rebels, known as Seleka, prompted the creation of Christian self-defense militia after he seized power in March." Madjiasra Nako and Paul-Marin Ngoupana at Reuters.
And the EU is considering intervention. "Draft plans for a European Union military mission in the Central African Republic envisage the deployment of hundreds of ground troops to buttress African and French forces struggling to prevent a bloodbath there, according to diplomats briefed on the proposal … While EU member states backed a similar mission to Mali last year in just a couple months, some EU diplomats have been more skeptical about the goals of this mission, suggesting it could take longer to reach consensus—if one is reached at all." Laurence Norman at the Wall Street Journal.
The death toll in South Sudan is increasing. "As fighting continued to rage across South Sudan on Thursday, a new estimate raised the death toll in the conflict significantly … The International Crisis Group said Thursday that the number of dead from the conflict was close to 10,000 people, a major increase from earlier estimates by the United Nations." Nicholas Kulish at the New York Times.
Critical time for West African lions. "Back in 2005, before the survey began, West African lions were believed to live in 21 different protected areas. But now a paper about the survey, published today in PLoS One, confirms that lions actually exist in just four of those sites. Worse still, the researchers estimate that the total population for West African lions is only about 400 animals, including fewer than 250 mature individuals of breeding age." John R. Platt at Scientific American.
Asia
Thailand is a political powder keg. "Thailand is no stranger to political turmoil but the current unrest looks set to be a protracted and especially bitter affair, raising the very real possibility of civil war. The stage seems set for a showdown between anti-government forces, backed by powerful vested interests, and a flawed but democratically elected government that enjoys mass support, especially in its rural heartlands. The conflict is being waged between rival factions of the elite, but also on class, ethnic and regional fronts. Predicting the future in Thai politics is futile, but more mass protests and bloodshed on the streets seem inevitable." Mark Fenn at the Diplomat.
Middle East
Syria just became much more dangerous. "Since early January 3, members of three militant fronts -- the largely nationalist Syrian Revolutionaries Front; the moderately Islamist Jaish al-Mujahideen; and the Salafist Islamic Front (IF) -- have engaged in sustained clashes with the extremist Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) … Hostilities have affected at least 40 separate municipalities … While ISIS appears to have been incurring strategic withdrawals ... its chief spokesman announced … that all individuals and groups linked to the Western-backed Syrian National Coalition (SNC) and the Syrian Military Council (SMC) were now legitimate targets, effectively amounting to a declaration of war." Charles Lister at Foreign Policy.
The Bahrain national dialogue is off the rails once again. "Bahrain's government has officially suspended national reconciliation talks, which had already been boycotted by the main opposition group. The Sunni-led government said it made the decision because of the refusal of groups from the country's Shia majority to attend the talks. The talks were intended to resolve tensions after the government repression of mass protests in 2011." Bill Law at BBC.
Polisci
On polarization and partisan warfare. "Party polarization and partisan warfare … Real analytic leverage can be brought to our understanding of how the current Senate operates and how it is evaluated if these dimensions are pulled apart … Texas ... reinforces the distinction ... Of the 279 votes that senators took in 2013, Ted Cruz and John Cornyn disagreed less than 9 percent of the time ... In terms of ideology, they are both very conservative ... The difference between my senators is that when John Cornyn shows up for a meeting with fellow senators, he brings a pad of paper and pencil and tries to figure out how to solve problems. Ted Cruz, on the other hand, brings a battle plan." Sean Theriault at the Monkey Cage.
Science
In favor of uploading yourself to a supercomputer. George Dvorsky at i09.
The BMI isn't a great scientific tool. "Recent findings have cast doubt on the BMI’s value. For example, although the BMI is associated with fat mass in obese people, there is little or no association with that of normal or underweight individuals. At any given BMI score, fat mass varies widely, and other variables, such as gender or age, further distort findings ... Although the BMI is an unscientific way to characterize a person’s nutritional status, it is ... used as a measure of total body fat mass in medical practice and epidemiological studies … because it is easy to calculate and document." Manfred J. Muller at Project Syndicate.
Miscellaneous
The U.S. population, as measured in Canadas. Wonkblog.
Only in Texas. "Moreau and the driver quickly grabbed can after can of the beer—Coor's Banquet, in case you were wondering—and dumped them onto the tire, which eventually exploded. But the beer extinguished the fire before it could spread to the rest of the truck." Taylor Berman at Gawker.
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