Tuesday: 4/23/13

Boston and Terrorism

Boston

Boston bombing suspect cites U.S. wars as motivation.  "The 19-year-old suspect in the Boston Marathon bombings has told interrogators that the American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan motivated him and his brother to carry out the attack, according to U.S. officials familiar with the interviews."  Scott Wilson, Greg Miller, and Sari Horwitz in the Washington Post.

Jon Stewart, on CNN and Boston coverage.  "While other networks used a studio anchor to keep Boston bombing coverage from going adrift, CNN instead went with a sandlot football approach."  Video.

Terrorism

Hapless, disorganized, and irrational: What the Boston bombers had in common with most would-be terrorists.  "Amazingly, the Boston perpetrators apparently thought they could somehow get away with their deed even though they chose to set their bombs off at the most-photographed spot on the planet at the time. ... They do not seem to have had anything that could be considered a coherent plan of escape ... no reliable means of transport and no money ... And while the scope of the tragedy in Boston should not be minimized, it should also be noted that, if the terrorists’ aim was to kill a large number of people, their bombs failed miserably."  John Mueller and Mark Stewart at Slate.

I suspect that Sen. McCain may not understand how Miranda rights work in cases of terrorism, or - for that matter - how they work, period.  "Sen. John McCain ...claimed ... the Obama administration, by making the decision to read Boston bombing suspect Dzhokhar Tsarnaev his Miranda rights, threw away any chance to interrogate him and glean information about potential future plots ... A federal judge read the bombing suspect his rights on Monday, but that doesn’t mean the Obama administration gave up the right to ask Tsarnaev questions." Ben Armbruster at ThinkProgress.

Politics

Baucus

Sen. Max Baucus to join the 'retiring in 2014' club.  "Senator Max Baucus will be the latest Senator to announce his retirement from the Senate at the end of the current term: ... Baucus joins colleagues Tim Johnson of South Dakota, Tom Harkin of Iowa, Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia, Carl Levin of Michigan and Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey in exiting the 2014 race. His Montana seat is likely to be one of the toughest on that list for Democrats to defend."  Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.

Democrats are slightly favored to keep the Senate seat.  "Bottom line: If Schweitzer runs, the race probably leans Democratic for now. If he doesn’t, it’s probably a tossup, with an edge to Republicans."  Sean Trende at RealClearPolitics.

Baucus leaves behind a mixed legacy.  "Baucus will have left a mixed legacy. Yes, he helped build one of the most expansive pieces of domestic legislation since the Great Society, but in his caution—characteristic of red state Democrats—he helped empower the forces that want to dismantle it."  Jamelle Bouie at the Plum Line.

Ron Wyden ascending.  "Sen. Max Baucus’s (D-Mont.) announcement that he’ll retire in 2014 clears the way for Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) to become chairman of the powerful Senate Finance Committee. If Baucus annoyed Democrats for being too cautious, Wyden will annoy them by being too ambitious — and too ceaselessly interested in brokering big, bipartisan deals."  Ezra Klein at Wonkblog.

Campaign Finance Reform

A new bipartisan campaign finance bill might be on the way.  "Sens. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) are poised to unveil legislation to reform the country’s much-maligned campaign finance rules. ... Under their plan, groups involved in political activity – whether directly through a campaign or via outside advocacy – would be required to disclose their donors in real time. ... The bill draws on state laws already enacted in Oregon and Alaska. It would be applicable to all federal candidates and “every billionaire hoping to influence an election,” they said."  Ben Goad in the Hill.

Economic inequality meets politics.  "At any point in our history, the disproportionate policy influence of the wealthy has been a serious problem for our democracy. But in today’s America, two factors intensify this threat: the increased concentration of economic resources, and the increased access those resources have to the political system.  There’s yet another piece to this puzzle, however ...What are the political preferences of the wealth and how do they differ from those of the rest of us?"  Jared Bernstein at On the Economy.

Climate Change

Environment vs economics, Louisiana edition.  "Climate change presents Louisiana with an existential crisis—and its lawmakers with a wrenching political problem. The Pelican State is at the nexus of two profoundly conflicting forces: fossil fuels and global warming. Oil is the economic lifeblood of the economy in this state ... thousands of jobs at refineries, ports, construction firms, and other industries that together account for up to 20 percent of Louisiana’s jobs.  That’s why many of its lawmakers don’t even acknowledge the science of climate change, and why even those who do are opposed to tough regulations on fossil-fuel pollution."  Coral Davenport in the National Journal.

Disaster Aid

Hypocrisy on the Hill.  "Officials are still coming to terms with the scope of the disaster in West, Texas, where a fertilizer plant exploded last week, leaving at least 14 dead. And while investigators still search for clues as to what caused the disaster, Texan lawmakers in Washington are looking for disaster aid to bolster the devastated community.  Had these same officials not opposed post-Sandy relief, their position might not seem so jarring. ... I will, of course, look forward to Cruz and Flores explaining why federal emergency aid in New Jersey and New York was unwarranted, while federal emergency aid in West, Texas, is fair."  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

The Economy

The big winner of the recession is the shadow economy.  "Based on historical patterns, current retail sales are actually what you’d expect if the unemployment rate were around five or six per cent ... The difference ... probably reflects workers migrating into the shadow economy.  This 'underground economy' could include anything from illicit activities — selling drugs, say — to off-the-books jobs in things like construction."  Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.

Robot recruiters to the rescue.  "Software that crunches piles of information can spot things that may not be apparent to the naked eye. In the case of hiring American workers who toil by the hour, number-crunching has uncovered some surprising correlations."  The Economist.

Education

Jindal backs teaching creationism.  "Asked about the role of creationism in public-school science classes, Jindal argued, "I've got no problem if ... a local school board, says we want to teach our kids about creationism.  As a matter of proper education, this is ridiculous. Classrooms are hardly the appropriate setting to expose kids to lessons known to be wrong."  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

Elections

Guns may not be a huge booster for Dems in 2014.  "Democrats are not in much of a position to capitalize on the vote from the standpoint of individual seats in Congress in 2014. To the extent that the issue plays favorably for Democrats in 2014, it is likely to be for symbolic reasons — because they are able to persuade voters that it reflects a Republican Party that is outside the mainstream."  Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.

Too early to know whether Democrats will fall prey to second-term jinx.  "Historically, we have seen unfortunate political patterns appear during second presidential terms. The party occupying the Oval Office has suffered significant House and/or Senate losses in five of the last six second-term, midterm elections. Since World War II, the party holding the White House for two consecutive terms has also lost it in five out of the six subsequent elections."  Charlie Cook in the National Journal.

The Massachusetts Senate race is back on.  "More quietly, politics is resurfacing in the Bay State as the candidates vying for Secretary of State John Kerry’s vacated Senate seat return to the campaign trail in earnest with just one week to go until the April 30 special election primaries.  A new poll shows that the front-runner when the race began, Democratic Rep. Ed Markey, remains in the driver’s seat for his party’s nomination and is the clear favorite to win the general election on June 25."  Scott Conroy at RealClearPolitics. 

No, immigration reform was never going to deliver a Latino 'bonanza' for the Democrats.  "The truth of the matter is that passing immigration reform won't be a votes 'bonanza' for the Democratic party because of potentially or newly enfranchised undocumented immigrants. That doesn't mean passing immigration reform will help the Republican party among Latinos; the GOP should probably still be worrying about its Latino voter appeal. But it's not facing a landslide from a new citizen electorate."  Harry Enten in the Guardian.

Fiscal Fights

The deficit is coming down.  "John Makin, ... argues that 'American fiscal austerity has been moderate and probably . . . has proceeded far enough for now.' A budget deficit that was more than 10 percent of GDP in 2009 is on track to be about half that this year. 'The federal budget deficit is shrinking rapidly,' writes Jan Hatzius, the chief economist of Goldman Sachs ... “There is still a great deal of room for the economic recovery to reduce the deficit for cyclical reasons.”  In other words, if policymakers can just not blow it and keep the recovery on track, that alone will do a good bit of the heavy lifting of deficit reduction."  Neil Irwin at Wonkblog.

GOP

Is the GOP post-policy?  "At some point a new custom evolved to save H.R. 1 through H.R. 5, and then through H.R. 10, for important party agenda bills.  Which leads to the embarrassing fact that no one seems to have noticed about this year’s House Republicans. Over 100 days into the current Congress, their agenda is … almost completely empty.  In fact, of the 10 reserved slots, there’s only one bill filed. That’s H.R. 3, a bill to force the building of the Keystone XL pipeline."  Jonathan Bernstein at Salon.

House accuses Clinton of lying about Benghazi.  Can't we just govern the country without manufacturing fake scandals?  "The chairmen of five House committees today in an interim report to Speaker John Boehner, R-Oh, accused former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton of lying to Congress about reducing security in Benghazi, Libya, before last September's attacks, vowing to continue reviewing what it described as a 'cover up' over the nature of the attacks and hold administration officials accountable."  Kevin Baron at the E-Ring.

Guns

Guns and terrorism, the double standard.  "Imagine what our laws would be like if the nation were losing 30,000 lives each year to Islamist terrorism. Do you think for one minute that a young man named, say, Abdullah or Hussein — or Tsarnaev — would be able to go to a gun show and buy a semiautomatic AR-15 knockoff with a 30-round clip, no questions asked? Would the NRA still argue, as it essentially does now, that those thousands of lives are the price we must pay for the Second Amendment?  When we say 'never again' about terrorism, we really mean it. When we say those words about gun violence, obviously we really don’t."  Eugene Robinson in the Washington Post.

Modern Republicans are radicals.  Do we still need more proof?  "There have been certain moments during the last few years that have been widely acknowledged as a sign of the radicalization of the Republican Party. Among them: The debt ceiling fights; the absolute refusal of Republicans to accept any tax hikes on the wealthy until the fiscal cliff showdown forced them to; Jim DeMint’s declaration that defeating Obamacare was crucial because it would be Obama’s 'Waterloo'; and Mitch McConnell’s claim that the GOP’s single overriding goal should be to render Obama a one-term president. The defeat of Toomey-Manchin should be added to that list."  Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.

When gun conspiracies go wild.  "In retribution against a Missouri agency’s record-keeping of concealed carry gun permits, the state Senate voted Monday to eliminate all funding for the Department of Revenue’s driver’s license bureau and slashed funding for several other agencies. If the measure became law, it would halt the issuance of driver’s licenses in the state, and would hobble the core functioning of several other agencies that senators believe played a role in collecting gun permit information."  Nicole Flatow at ThinkProgress.

LGBT Rights

Are workplace rights the next Congressional battleground?  "Senator Jeff Merkley, one of the lead sponsors of the Employment Non-Discrimination Act, says he intends to introduce ENDA ... along with several other Republican and Democratic co-sponsors. ENDA would federally prohibit discrimination in hiring on the basis of sexual orientation or gender identity ... Senator Tom Harkin, who chairs the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee, has vowed to move the bill forward this year. Most observers expect that it will eventually come to the floor for a vote. 'We’re ready to roll,' Merkley said."  Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.

The Nevada Senate voted to repeal their constitutional amendment on same-sex marriage.  "The Nevada Senate became the first legislative chamber in the country to vote to overturn a state constitutional amendment banning same-sex couples from marrying."  Chris Geidner at Buzzfeed.

SCOTUSwatch

Water wars.  "On Tuesday in Tarrant Regional Water District v. Herrmann, the Court will consider whether thirsty residents in the Dallas-Fort Worth area of Texas can tap into water resources located in Oklahoma in order to slake their growing need for water."  Thomas Merrill at SCOTUSblog.

International

Asia

New reports of ethnic cleansing in Myanmar.  "The Human Rights Watch ... documents the clash between two ethnic groups in Myanmar’s Arakan State. The majority ethnic Arakanese population, ... sought to remove the disenfranchised Rohingya group living within the Arakan state from their communities. The Arakanese are majority Buddhist, while the Rohingya are Muslim.  Further, the report accuses the Myanmar government and local authorities of not only complicity with efforts to forcibly evict the Rohingya from their homes, but also overt support for the campaign."  Hayes Brown at ThinkProgress.

Europe

France approves same-sex marriage.  "With a definitive vote by the lower house of Parliament, France on Tuesday became the world’s 14th nation, and the third in just two weeks, to approve marriage rights for same-sex couples.  The legislation is expected to be approved by the Constitutional Council and signed into law by President François Hollande in time to allow the country’s first same-sex weddings this summer."  Scott Sayare in the New York Times.

Middle East

Israel says Syria has used chemical weapons.  "Israel declared Tuesday that it had found evidence that the Syrian government repeatedly used chemical weapons last month ...  In making the declaration — which went somewhat beyond recent suspicions expressed by Britain and France — Israeli officials argued that President Assad had repeatedly crossed what President Obama said last summer would be a 'red line.' But Obama administration officials pushed back, saying they would not leap into the conflict on what they viewed as inconclusive evidence."  David Sanger and Jodi Rudoren in the New York Times.

What does Assad's arsenal look like?  "The United States' Intelligence Community's 2013 Worldwide Threat Assessment released last month states that Syria has a "highly active chemical weapons program" maintaining a stockpile of sarin, VX, and the longtime staple of chemical warfare, mustard gas. These weapons can be delivered a number of ways, via cluster bombs dropped from jets and helicopters to chemical warheads placed atop Scud ballistic missiles. They can even be fired via shorter-range artillery guns or missiles systems, like the Soviet-made BM-27 Uragan."  John Reed at Killer Apps.

Catching up on the Iranian presidential elections.  "On 14 June, Iran will hold one of the most critical presidential elections in the history of the Islamic Republic.  On 23 May the Guardian Council, all 12 members of which have been either directly or indirectly appointed by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will announce which candidates have been permitted to run in this year's poll."  Rana Rahimpour at BBC.

After U.S. troops leave Afghanistan, drones will still be patrolling.  "Armed drones, operated by the U.S., will remain over Afghanistan after 2014. ... 'You’ll have that hybrid ISR [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] as I call it, that armed ISR, remotely piloted aircraft capability all the way through ’14,' Polumbo said, 'and then once [the follow-on Operation] Resolute Support mission and operations is fully understood and agreed upon by our coalition partners and our leadership, you will likely see it into 2015 to provide force protection.'"  Spencer Ackerman at the Danger Room.

Economics

We tried austerity.  Can we move on yet?  "The case for austerity is coming apart for another and more important reason: The results are in, and they're terrible, especially where central banks have failed to offset the fiscal cuts with monetary easing."  Evan Soltas at Bloomberg.

Science

The end of sleep?  "Since stimulants have failed to offer a biological substitute for sleep, the new watchword of sleep innovators is ‘efficiency’, which means in effect reducing the number of hours of sleep needed for full functionality."  Jessa Gamble in Aeon Magazine.

Miscellaneous

Financial markets are jittery.  Very jittery.  "The stock market briefly plummeted Tuesday afternoon after a bogus tweet sent Wall Street into a temporary tailspin, a sign of the fragile state of market psychology and the susceptibility of even the multi-trillion dollar financial markets to bad information. The official Twitter account of the Associated Press was hacked, the AP reported, and the hacker tweeted out 'Breaking: Two Explosions in the White House and Barack Obama is injured.'"  Neil Irwin at Wonkblog.

CNN - I know you're already a subpar news network, but don't do this.  Don't do this.  "Earlier this month, news broke that CNN was looking to relaunch Crossfire, the famous debate show that pitted two pundits -- one liberal, one conservative -- against one another on the political issues of the day.  Sources now tell POLITICO that the network is in discussions with former Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich and former Obama deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter about roles on the show."  Dylan Byers at Politico.

How the builders of the Giza pyramid were fed.  "Based on animal bone findings, nutritional data, and other discoveries at this workers' town site, the archaeologists estimate that more than 4,000 pounds of meat — from cattle, sheep and goats — were slaughtered every day, on average, to feed the pyramid builders."  Owen Jarus at LiveScience.

Tigers, oh my.  "A central Kansas woman likely won't remember her first circus for the clowns or performances — it'll be the tiger in the bathroom.  The big cat had escaped briefly after its turn in the ring Saturday at the Isis Shrine Circus in Salina. Staff members blocked off the concourses at the Bicentennial Center as the tiger wandered into the bathroom."  Chris Oberholtz at KCTV.

Monday: 4/22/13

Boston and Terrorism

Boston

Good news - all bombing patients expected to survive.  "In a glimmer of good news after last week’s tragedy, all of the more than 180 people injured in the Boston Marathon blasts who made it to a hospital alive now seem likely to survive."  Marilynn Marchione at Talking Points Memo.

Dzhokhar Tsarnaev to be tried in federal court.  "Federal prosecutors sent a quick, clear message in the prosecution of Dzhokhar Tsarnaev Monday morning in filing a complaint in federal court listing only two specific charges, both carrying the possibility of the death penalty, according to legal observers.  The charges, use of a weapon of mass destruction of property resulting in death and malicious destruction of property resulting in death, center strictly on the Boston Marathon bombings and bypass for now the other crimes linked to him."  Milton Valencia in the Boston Globe.

The transcript of Tsarnaev's bedside hearing.  The New York Times.

Yes, the Boston Marathon bombing included a 'weapon of mass destruction'.  "Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, the surviving suspect in the Boston Marathon bombing, was charged today with using a weapon of mass destruction. It’s yet another circumstance where the legal and colloquial definitions of 'weapon of mass destruction' are at odds."  Spencer Ackerman at the Danger Room.

What’s the difference between McVeigh and Tsarnaev?  "What’s the difference? ... Mr. Tsarnaev is a Muslim, and the United States has since the 9/11 terrorist attacks constructed a separate and profoundly unequal system of detention and punishment that essentially applies only to Muslims.  Mr. Graham and others who are demanding that prosecutors treat Mr. Tsarnaev differently from Mr. McVeigh are not even trying very hard to disguise the fact that they’re drawing distinctions based on religion and ethnicity."  Andrew Rosenthal at Taking Note.

Reminder: The alleged Boston bombers were here legally.  "Both of the Tsarnaev brothers, who stand accused of perpetrating last Monday’s marathon bombing, were in the United States legally. Dzhokhar, who is currently in police custody after a lengthy manhunt, is a naturalized citizen, while Tamerlan, who died in a shootout with police, had a green card and was applying for citizenship."  Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog.

In defense of 'politicizing' tragedies.  "The key point, however, is that responding to events — any event — by urging and taking political action is, for citizens of the United States, extremely patriotic. So, by all means, follow etiquette and prudence in hesitating to respond to this Patriots’ Day bombing and the subsequent manhunt — but then, by all means, bring the politics."  Jonathan Bernstein in the Washington Post.

Fast and wrong: The incentives for speed-induced misinformation in Boston bombings coverage.  "The near-infinite size of the news hole that media outlets are now expected to try to fill online, on cable, and in social media, even when little new or accurate information is available, exacerbates the challenge and creates perverse incentives. With weak reputational and commercial penalties for inaccuracy—CNN’s audience reportedly tripled from the slow-news period of the week before—reporters rushed to fill the void with whatever information was available, however dubious."  Brendan Nyhan in the Columbia Journalism Review.

They may have pulled off the Boston bombing, but it doesn't appear that the Tsarnaevs were the world's smartest terrorists.  "About five hours after federal investigators published photos of the the two suspects taken at the Boston Marathon, police say, they killed a Massachusetts Institute of Technology police officer Thursday night and carjacked a Mercedes SUV nearby.  Cambridge Police told The Times that the Mercedes driver escaped when the brothers went inside a Shell gas station on Memorial Drive in Cambridge to buy snacks.  The unidentified driver fled to another gas station to call police."  Matt Pearce in the LA Times.

But seriously, incompetence all around.  "Many of the Tsarnaevs' actions last week seem baffling in retrospect. Here are some of the most confounding things they did."  Tim Murphy at Mother Jones.

Terrorism

America the skittish.  "It's the larger response to the tragedy that worries me. Although politicians ... offered up the usual defiant statements about America's toughness and resilience in the face of terror, the overall reaction to the attacks was anything but. Public officials shut down the entire city of Boston ... It showed that a 19 year-old amateur could paralyze an entire American metropolis. ... This is not the attitude that tamed the West, stopped the Third Reich, or won the Cold War." Stephen Walt in Foreign Policy.

Politics

Agencies

Keystone fights, back again.  "The Environmental Protection Agency again is raising objections to the proposed Keystone XL pipeline that would carry oil from western Canada to the Texas Gulf Coast. Despite more than four years of study, the State Department's analysis of the project's environmental impact is 'insufficient,' the EPA said Monday."  The Associated Press.

Koch brothers and co. are attempting to increase the risk of industrial accidents in the wake of the West, Texas explosion.  "Last Wednesday's explosion at a West, Texas, fertilizer plant, which left at least 15 people dead and more than 100 injured, was made possible by an ultra-lax state and federal oversight climate that make inspections of such facilities all but a rubber-stamp process—when they even happen. If the chemical lobby and its allies in Congress get their way, a regulatory process dismissed by environmental activists and labor unions as extremely weak would be watered down even more."  Tim Murphy in Mother Jones.

Crime

Lead abatement, alcohol taxes and 10 other ways to reduce the crime rate without annoying the NRA.  Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog.

Smart on crime.  "The United States leads the developed world in both homicide and incarceration, and both of those evils land most heavily on poor African Americans. ... We can and should do better. But 'doing better' doesn’t mean simply focusing on social services and systemic reforms and ignoring the need for punishment. It means using punishment intelligently, which means using it as sparingly as possible but also as much as necessary. As Machiavelli warned his fellow opponents of tyranny, a reluctance to punish comes naturally with good-heartedness, but those unable to overcome that reluctance are as unfit to rule as those who have no such reluctance to begin with."  Mark Kleiman in Democracy.

The Economy

Bad policy, bad outcomes.  "The key question is whether workers who have been unemployed for a long time eventually come to be seen as unemployable ... Potential employers assume that something must be wrong with people who can’t find a job, even if the real reason is simply the terrible economy. And there is ... growing evidence that the tainting of the long-term unemployed is happening as we speak. ... Let’s be clear: this is a policy decision. The main reason our economic recovery has been so weak is that ... we’ve been doing exactly what basic macroeconomics says you shouldn’t do — cutting government spending in the face of a depressed economy."  Paul Krugman in the New York Times.

The Civil War is still affecting the economy, over 150 years later.  "The former border between the Union and the Confederation is still relevant to-day: The defunct border represents a trade barrier that lowers trade between US states by on average 7 to 20 percent. In a million placebo estimations, we find supportive evidence that the magnitude of this border effect is unique."  Joshua Keating in Foreign Policy.

Elections

Gun control 2016: A winning wedge issue for the Democrats.  "The good news for gun control advocates is that the myth could break in 2016. It’s easy to envision the next Democratic presidential candidate campaigning on gun control—and winning. ... Democratic presidential candidates are less reliant on rural, conservative gun owners than at any time in the history of the party. Democrats win with big margins in cities and suburbs, where support for gun control is an asset, not a hindrance. ... To win, Republicans need to reclaim the socially moderate suburbs around Denver, Washington, and Philadelphia, where gun control is a real asset to Democratic candidates."  Nate Cohn in the New Republic.

Fiscal Fights

The sequester's still around, and things aren't getting better.  "After months of nervous anticipation, federal workers begin the first major round of furloughs this week, even as much uncertainty remains at some agencies about how much time, if any, employees will lose from their jobs because of mandated spending cuts."  Steve Vogel in the Washington Post.

Air traffic controllers are one of the early casualties.  "Flights were delayed by up to two hours across the country on Monday, the first weekday that the nation’s air traffic control system operated with 10 percent fewer controllers. Pilots, gate agents and others were quick to blame furloughs caused by mandatory across-the-board budget cuts..."  Matthew Wald and Jad Mouawad in the New York Times.

Newsflash: Cutting spending requires cutting spending.  "Now, it’s true that if you ask Republicans whether they support this cut or that cut ... they’ll claim that, no, they only want to do away with waste, fraud, abuse, and foreign aid. But that’s not what their budgets say. It’s not what their rhetoric says, either. ... The real story here is simple: if you want massive spending cuts, that means massive cuts to government programs that people like. And one political party has been advocating those cuts, and even risking default of the government in order to get them. No matter what Republicans say now about the effects of those cuts."  Jonathan Bernstein at the Plum Line.

Can Congress actually pass a new tax into law?  "It has been labeled a tax grab and a bureaucratic nightmare by conservative anti-tax activists, an infringement on states’ rights and a federal encroachment on the almost-sacred ground of Internet commerce.  Yet legislation to help states force online retailers to collect sales taxes easily cleared its first procedural hurdle on Monday evening, and even its fiercest opponents are looking to the House of Representatives for a last stand. The Senate voted 74-20 to take up the legislation for debate and amendment." Jonathan Weisman in the New York Times.

Everything you need to know about the Senate's online sales tax bill.  Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.

And Congress needs to figure out what to do to work requirements when there aren't enough jobs to go around.  "'Where are the jobs?' Speaker John Boehner likes to ask. But do his fellow House Republicans really want to kick the unemployed off food stamps if they can’t find the jobs either? That’s the question behind a simmering farm bill battle over reimposing work requirements on millions of able-bodied adults enrolled in the nutrition program. Most have no reported earnings, and without added job training or workfare slots, the change could spell real hardship in today’s economy."  David Rogers in Politico.

GOP

The conservative paranoid mind - connecting gun control, immigration, and Boston.  "The common thread through all of this is the conservative need to instill and maintain a level of fear in the populace. They need to make gun owners fear that Dianne Feinstein and her SWAT team are going to come knocking on their doors ... They need to whip up fear of immigrants, because unless we do, it’s going to be nothing but terrorists coming through those portals ... And with regard to terrorism, they need people to live in fear of the next attack, because fear ... makes people more likely to endorse tough-guy, law-and-order, Constitution-shredding actions undertaken on their behalf."  Michael Tomasky at the Daily Beast. 

George W. Bush revisionism - new Bush same as the old Bush.  "There are some cold hard facts that cannot be erased. George W. Bush helmed a war of choice that proved, in the end, to impose powerful constraints ... for American foreign policy. He pursued his foreign policy aims in such a way as to dramatically lower U.S. standing abroad. He was at the helm when all of the pressures that triggered the 2008 financial crisis were building up and did next to nothing to stop them. ... At worst, he was the most disastrous foreign policy president of the post-1945 era."  Daniel Drezner at Foreign Policy.

Guns

The way forward on guns.  "The next steps are up to the supporters of gun sanity. They can keep organizing to build on the unprecedented effort that went into this fight — or they can give up. They can challenge the senators who voted 'no,' or they can leave them believing that the 'safe' vote is always with the NRA. They can bolster senators who cast particularly courageous “yes” votes — among them, Mary Landrieu and Kay Hagan — or they can leave them hanging.  The story of reform in America is that it often takes defeats to inspire a movement to build up the strength required for victory."  EJ Dionne in the Washington Post.

Why do gun rights advocates have more political firepower?  Social networks.  "Instead of viewing gun owners and advocates simply as individuals ... we should take account of their position in social networks that facilitate collective action in favor of gun rights ... Gun owners’ social activities facilitate organizing. They are embedded in social networks of people with similar views and ... they may learn about political efforts that at least some of them are predisposed to support. ... By contrast, gun control supporters have no shared social activities, no common identity ... Under these conditions, it is not surprising to find far more effective mobilization of sentiment on the gun rights side."  David Karol at the Monkey Cage.

Health

The public health paradox: Why people don't get flu shots.  "The problem is that when public health works, it is invisible. It's an insidious, persistent public relations issue that plagues public health. Nobody sees when a chain of disease transmission is broken, or when contaminated food is prevented from reaching the market, or when toxic pollutants don't enter the environment. That's the point: the goal of public health is prevention, not reaction.  What's left for the general public ... is the worst sort of confirmation bias. People who did not receive the vaccine and did not get sick feel validated. Those who did receive the vaccine and didn't get sick wonder if they really needed it all."  Caitlin Rivers.

International

Global

Global governance needs improvement.  "So how's the world doing? Well, let's just hope the professor is offering some extra credit assignments before the end of the semester: Climate change: D Global finance: B Nuclear nonproliferation: C Armed conflict: C+ Public health: C Terrorism: B ... All the same, that's a cumulative GPA of 2.22. I'm not sure the world can afford to skate by on a gentleman's C."  Joshua Keating at Foreign Policy.

Europe

Serbia and Kosovo should be happy.  "In the wake of their agreement to normalize relations, Serbia and Kosovo have received what they were seeking: progress in their respective bids for European Union membership. ... The European Commission has recommended opening EU membership talks with Serbia, following Friday's landmark deal to normalise Serbia-Kosovo ties."  David Bosco at the Multilateralist."

  

Economics

Reinhart-Rogoff and confirmation bias.  "To see their enormous influence on the European debate, it is worth quoting an extract from a speech by Olli Rehn, the European Commission’s economic chief, ... “Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have coined the ‘90 per cent rule’,” he said. “That is, countries with public debt exceeding 90 per cent of annual economic output grow more slowly. ... Policy makers, such as Mr Rehn, are always on the lookout for economic theories that seem plausible and accord with their deep beliefs."  Wolfgang Munchau in the Financial Times.

Beware the carbon bubble.  "Investors in carbon-intensive business could see $6 trillion wasted as policies limiting global warming stop them from exploiting their coal, oil and gas reserves, according to a report.  The top 200 oil, gas and mining companies spent $674 billion last year finding and developing fossil fuel resources, according to research by the Carbon Tracker Initiative and a climate-change research unit at the London School of Economics. If this rate continues for the next decade some $6 trillion risks being wasted on 'unburnable' or stranded assets."  Sally Blakewell at Bloomberg.

How economics doesn't work, courtesy of Taco Bell.  "Taco Bell's Doritos Locos tacos have been a big hit product, but assertions that they're responsible for the creation of 15,000 new jobs are a textbook illustration of the difficulty in making macro-inferences from micro-phenemona: Presumably some large fraction of those sales either displaced sales at other fast food establishments or else displaced nonfood purchases. ... The impact of any particular firm's successes on overall levels of employment and output is totally ambiguous."  Matthew Yglesias at Slate.

Military

I wonder how this could go badly...  "An April 2013 report by the Defense Science Board says that arcane safety procedures are actually making some aspects of the way the Air Force handles its nuclear weapons more dangerous. ... The Air Force recently barred units from using the hoists due to their failure to meet technical safety specifications. The result? 'An awkward process entailing the use of a forkliftt to move the weapon into the truck and the manhandling of the 200-pound tail section,' ... a procedure 'that by any informed judgment, impose[s] far greater safety risk than that presented by the deficiency in the bolt length.'"  John Reed at Killer Apps.

In awesome tech watch, a tank that can swim?  "The Pentagon’s blue-sky researchers have awarded $1 million to a team of designers who they believe have built an innovative drivetrain for a Marine swimming tank. The first Darpa FANG challenge has a winner."  Spencer Ackerman at the Danger Room.

Science

Score another point for modeling.  "Mathematical prediction models are better than doctors at predicting the outcomes and responses of lung cancer patients to treatment, according to new research presented ... at the 2nd Forum of the European Society for Radiotherapy and Oncology." Science Daily.

Miscellaneous

Game of Thrones theme, on a bell tower.  Video.

Combat juggling.  “Combat or gladiator is a game played by jugglers. In its most typical form, a number of players juggle three clubs each, attempting to interfere with other players’ juggling, with the winner being the last to remain juggling three clubs — not necessarily those they started with.”  Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.

If you needed another reason to hate the modeling industry.  "Modeling scouts ... were gathering—in the plural, so more than one person thought this was okay—outside of Sweden’s largest eating disorder clinic. They were there to recruit anorexic girls to their agencies, because where else would you search for perilously skinny young women who are unlikely to put on weight? Anna-Maria af Sandeberg, chief doctor ... told the Metro newspaper, 'People have stood outside our clinic and tried to pick up our girls because they know they are very thin.' 'It sends the wrong signals,' she added."  Katy Waldman at Slate.

Weekend: 4/20/13-4/21/13

Boston and Terrorism

Boston

The absolute must-read on the Boston bombings.  David Montgomery, Sari Horwitz, and Marc Fisher in the Washington Post.

Terrorism

Why are we, as a nation, so concerned about terrorism and not about gun violence?  A case of misplaced priorities.  "For those of you keeping score at home – locking down an American city: a proper reaction to the threat from one terrorist. A background check to prevent criminals or those with mental illness from purchasing guns: a dastardly attack on civil liberties. All of this would be almost darkly comic if not for the fact that more Americans will die needlessly as a result. Already, more than 30,000 Americans die in gun violence every year (compared to the 17 who died last year in terrorist attacks)." Michael Cohen in the Guardian.

Americans who distrust Muslims are likelier to back the war on terror.  No surprise there.  "Surveys suggest that many Americans do not distinguish between the vast majority of peaceful Muslims and the very small number of Muslims who commit violent acts ... even though many political leaders have made precisely this distinction. ... These stereotypes are consequential. Even after accounting for other factors, people with negative stereotypes of Muslims on the peaceful-violent and trustworthy-untrustworthy dimensions were more likely to support various aspects of the War on Terror."  John Sides at Wonkblog.

Small majority approved of Miranda Rights for terror suspects.  "The capture of Dzhokhar A. Tsarnaev, 19, a suspect in the Boston Marathon bombings, has revived a debate over how terrorism cases are handled in the United States, including whether suspected terrorists should be read their Miranda rights, which include the right to an attorney and the right to remain silent, and how quickly.  ... Surveys conducted when this debate was last in the news, in 2010, found that a small majority of Americans favored informing suspected terrorists of their Miranda rights." Micah Cohen at FiveThirtyEight.

Senators McCain and Graham want President Obama to hold Dzhokar Tsarnaev in military detention.  That's a very bad idea.  "First and most important, Tsarnaev may not be an enemy combatant. ... Second ... there’s the small matter of Tsarnaev’s citizenship. Tsarnaev is reportedly a naturalized American citizen, and the government’s appetite for the detention of American citizens under the laws of war has waned—and rightly so. ... Third ... he was certainly captured in the United States, and the military detention of domestic captures is problematic ... Fourth, even if all of these legal and policy problems could be overcome ... military detention offers no clear advantages in this case and has several big disadvantages."  Benjamin Wittes at Lawfare.

We need to be less concerned with the 'next attack.'  "It’s no way to live. I read this week about a bombing in a restaurant in Israel some years ago. The restaurant was open for business the next day. What we need is precisely that kind of I’m-not-changing-a-thing resilience. The less space terrorism occupies in our brains, the better off we’ll be."  Michael Tomasky at the Daily Beast.

But the government and the media probably will lock in a cycle of escalating panic.  "It’s the authorities and the media that tend to go a little crazy, and their actions reinforce each other. In the knowledge that virtually every television network, news organization, and news Web site in the country is providing rolling (and often unreliable) coverage ... It’s much easier to play it safe and lock down an entire city. But the result, as Yaakov noted, is that 'a single terrorist can disrupt so many lives and possibly more important—the American way of life.'"  John Cassidy in the New Yorker.

Social media went out of control.  "This watershed moment for social media quickly spiraled out of control. Legions of Web sleuths cast suspicion on at least four innocent people, spread innumerable bad tips and heightened the sense of panic and paranoia. 'This is one of the most alarming social media events of our time,' said Siva Vaidhyanathan, a media studies professor at the University of Virginia. 'We're really good at uploading images and unleashing amateurs, but we're not good with the social norms that would protect the innocent.'"  Ken Bensinger and Andrea Chang in the Los Angeles Times.  

Politics

Elections

How fragile is the new Democratic majority?  "So what do a governor’s race in Rhode Island, President Obama’s proposed Social Security and Medicare cuts, a bankruptcy in Stockton, Calif., the fiscal cliff, and the funding mechanism for the Affordable Care Act have in common? This isn’t some quirky setup for a joke only a wonk could love. The common thread here is that they all involve cross-currents in the Democratic Party that pose existential threats to their coalition." Sean Trende at RealClearPolitics.

Guns

What Manchin-Toomey means for Senate Democrats.  "When you combine the fact that Democratic presidential nominees are winning fewer states with the fact that there is more straight ticket-voting, the Democrats have a major problem on their hands. It's simply going to get harder here on in to win a Senate majority, let alone a super-majority of 60 seats, which a party really needs to overcome the growing use of the filibuster. ... The Democrats who are in 'red' states recognize this fact and you saw it this week in the gun ownership background checks amendment vote."  Harry Enten in the Guardian.

Bill Daley goes after Senator Heidi Heitkamp.  "Polling has shown that nine in 10 Americans and eight in 10 gun owners support a law to require every buyer to go through a background check on every gun sale. In North Dakota, the support was even higher: 94 percent. Yet in explaining her vote, Heitkamp had the gall to say that she “heard overwhelmingly from the people of North Dakota” and had to listen to them and vote no. It seems more likely that sheheard from the gun lobby and chose to listen to it instead."  Bill Daley in the Washington Post.

Shame on Senator Jeff Flake.  "One of the U.S. senators who voted against gun control legislation Wednesday lied to a heartbroken mother whose son was killed in the Aurora, Colo., movie massacre, she says.  Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake sent Caren Teves a handwritten note last week saying he was 'truly sorry' for the loss of her son and that 'strengthening background checks is something we agree on.' Then, just days later, he helped kill a bill that would do just that."  Tina Moore in the New York Daily News.

The Media

Please, don't let this deal go through... "Three years ago, Charles and David Koch ... laid out a three-pronged, 10-year strategy to shift the country toward a smaller government with less regulation and taxes.  ... The third one was: media. ... Now, Koch Industries, the sprawling private company of which Charles G. Koch serves as chairman and chief executive, is exploring a bid to buy the Tribune Company’s eight regional newspapers, including The Los Angeles Times, The Chicago Tribune, The Baltimore Sun, The Orlando Sentinel and The Hartford Courant."  Amy Chozick in the New York Times.

International

Asia

Earthquake in China kills 186.  "Saturday's earthquake in Sichuan province killed at least 186 people, injured more than 11,000 and left nearly two dozen missing, mostly in the rural communities around Ya'an city, along the same seismic fault where a devastating quake to the north killed more than 90,000 people in Sichuan and neighboring areas five years ago in one of China's worst natural disasters."  Gillian Wong at the Associated Press.

Europe

The rise of Neo-Nazis in Greece - and why that's scary.  "As recently as Greece's October 2009 parliamentary election, Golden Dawn garnered just 0.29 percent of votes. ... Polls now show the party holding 10 to 12 percent of voter support. ... Nowhere else in Europe are neo-Nazis and right-wing extremists profiting as greatly from the financial crisis as in Athens.  The party and its followers ... have taken to roaming the streets on foot or on motorcycles, attacking foreigners and leftists and beating them to the point that they require hospitalization. ... Many victims of this violence no longer even go to the police, who are rumored to sympathize with the extremists."  Manfred Ertel in Der Spiegel.

Middle East

Allegations of Syria using chemical weapons continue to fly.  "Britain and France have written separately to Secretary General Ban Ki-moon of the United Nations that there is credible information suggesting Syria’s government has used chemical weapons in the civil war on multiple occasions since last December ... Israeli officials have also said they believe there is evidence that Syrian forces have used the weapons, which the government of President Bashar al-Assad is known to have stockpiled."  Rick Gladstone and Eric Schmitt in the New York Times.

Economics

How can we get back to full employment?  Simple.  Public sector job creation.  (AKA - AT: Free market hacks).  "Here, I want to introduce a different solution ...  It’s direct public job creation. That is, if the private sector can’t be counted upon to generate the needed job opportunities to absorb our labor supply, then there is a role for government to correct this important market shortcoming. ... Even if we didn’t have the structural changes in 'labor-saving technology' ... that I suspect are afoot, we would need to move in the direction of more publicly supported employment."  Jared Bernstein at On the Economy.

Science

The oldest star in the Universe is older than the Universe.  Except, it isn't.  Video

Checking in on the pitch drop experiment.  "Pitch at room temperature is actually fluid!  In 1927 Professor Parnell heated a sample of pitch and poured it into a glass funnel with a sealed stem. Three years were allowed for the pitch to settle, and in 1930 the sealed stem was cut. From that date on the pitch has slowly dripped out of the funnel - so slowly that now, 80 years later, the ninth drop is only just forming."  University of Queensland, Australia.

The precursor to human language?  "Sounds made by a little-known monkey living in Ethiopia’s mountain grasslands may hint at the origins of human speech. Unlike most other primates, which communicate in strings of short, relatively flat-toned syllables, geladas possess uncannily human-like vocal tempos and undulations. ... 'The ability to produce complex sounds might have come first.'  Earlier research on lip-smacking in macaque monkeys ... noted an intriguing correspondence to the universal rhythms of human language."  Brandom Keim at Wired.

Miscellaneous 

The flaws of massive open online courses.  "MOOCs seem like a really cool idea, but pose some problems when politicians and administrators consider them as a panacea for solving some of the real challenges we face in higher education--spiraling tuition."  Steve Saideman.

Stonehenge is thousands of years older than previously thought.  "Excavation near Stonehenge found evidence of a settlement dating back to 7,500 BC, revealing the site was occupied some 5,000 years earlier than previously thought. ... Indeed, carbon dating of the material revealed the existence of a semi-permanent settlement which was occupied from 7,500 to 4,700 BC. The dating showed that people were present during every millennium in between." Rossella Lorenzi in Discovery News.

The ideal subway seating arrangement.  "Researchers from the Transportation Research Board (TRB) recommend designing a subway car with vertical poles in the middle to maximize that premium near-the-door space for short-trip passengers, and transverse seating at the ends of the cars for long-distance riders. There would also be some seats along the walls near the doors separated by poles and partitions." Keith Barry at Wired.

Massachusetts Guardsman legally changes name to ‘Boston Strong.’  "Private First Class John 'Sully' Sullivan surprised family and fellow Guardsmen alike yesterday, when he reported that he had legally changed his name to 'Boston Strong,' after learning of the Twitter hashtag Bay Staters have been using to help bounce back from the April 15 bombings at the Boston Marathon." The Duffel Blog.

Friday: 4/19/13

Boston, Terrorism, and Chechnya

Boston

The lives of the brothers.  "The two Chechen brothers accused in the Boston Marathon bombing set about building American lives after coming to the U.S. about a decade ago.  Tamerlan Tsarnaev, 26 years old, became a successful Golden Gloves boxer. His younger brother, Dzhokhar, 19, was a nursing student and became an American citizen just last year, on Sept. 11.  But a close examination of the Tsarnaev family's life in the U.S. shows a hopeful immigrant trajectory veering off course."  Alan Cullison, Paul Sonne, and Jennifer Levitz in the Wall Street Journal.

Terrorism

Constitution?  What Constitution?  "This is pretty breathtaking. Graham ... is suggesting that an American citizen, captured on American soil, should be deprived of basic constitutional rights. Keep in mind that Graham isn't just an angry citizen; he's not even just a U.S. senator. He is also a trained lawyer, a colonel in Air Force Reserve, and a member of the Judge Advocate General's Corps, the legal arm of the Air Force."  David Graham in the Atlantic.

The modern manhunt: FBI, the 'hive mind,' and the Boston bombers.  "When the smoke literally cleared on Monday, investigators had a huge problem and nearly no leads. ... So they took a big leap: They copped to how little they knew, and embraced the wisdom of The Crowd.  Hiding in plain sight was an ocean of data, from torrents of photography to cell-tower information to locals’ memories, waiting to be exploited. Police, FBI, and the other investigators opted to let spectator surveillance supplement and augment their own. ... All that represented a modern twist on the age-old law enforcement maxim that the public’s eyes and ears are crucial investigative assets." Spencer Ackerman at the Danger Room.

Was lockdown the correct response to the terror threat?  "Public officials in Boston erred by locking down the City and most surrounding suburbs for an entire day ...  The economic cost has been enormous (by one estimate about $1 billion), and it sets a worrisome precedent if a 19 year old fugitive can paralyze an entire metropolitan region. ...  This response also belies our insistence that we're tough and we won't be intimidated. On the contrary: we look skittish and scared. ... I worry that potential copycats will be inspired rather than deterred by the combination of media frenzy and governmental overreaction."  Stephen Walt in Foreign Policy.

Chechnya

9 questions about Chechnya and Dagestan you were too embarrassed to ask.  Max Fisher in the Washington Post.

Reminder: Not all Muslims in the post-Soviet region are radical islamists or Chechen nationalists.  "Russian Muslims practice various forms of Islam ... religious belief and practice is not always correlated with anti-Moscow political mobilization ... Muslims in Russia have largely opposed radical Islamic movements during the past 15 years and most likely will continue to do so."  Joshua Tucker at the Monkey Cage.

Reminder #2: Chechnya is not the Czech Republic.  "The mix-up has now even elicited a response from the Czech ambassador to the United States, Petr Gandalovic, who seemed rather offended and posted the following statement on the embassy's website: 'As more information on the origin of the alleged perpetrators is coming to light, I am concerned to note in the social media a most unfortunate misunderstanding in this respect. The Czech Republic and Chechnya are two very different entities - the Czech Republic is a Central European country; Chechnya is a part of the Russian Federation.'"  Marya Hannun at Foreign Policy.

Politics

Abortion

More stupidity, courtesy of Kansas.  "What makes the Kansas measure especially interesting are provisions from state government that instruct medical professionals as to what they must tell women seeking legal abortions. ... The law 'requires doctors to provide controversial information to patients either seeking or inquiring about an abortion of a link between the procedure and breast cancer.'  Science tells us there is no link between abortion and breast cancer, which would appear to raise a series of problems."  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

Congress

Welcome to the desert of the gridlock.  Please keep all progress outside of the Congress at all times.  "This level of partisan polarization, veering from ideological differences into tribalism, has not been seen in more than a century. The U.S. system has always moved slowly, but in times past major advances were achieved with some level of cooperation or restraint, if not consensus, between the parties. No more."  Thomas Mann and Norm Ornstein at Brookings.    

The Filibuster

How to tell if it is a duck - if it quacks like a duck: Manchin-Toomey and beyond.  "It is wrong to say that insisting on 60 is threatening a filibuster. The demand is the filibuster, under the conditions -- which hold now, and have held for decades -- that the way a filibuster is conducted is by notifying people of the demand for 60."  Jonathan Bernstein.

Fiscal Fights

Sequester set to cause airport delays.  "But with no fix in sight, the Transportation Department is preparing to cut $1 billion from its budget by the end of September, including $635 million from the F.A.A. ...  Reduced staffing, either in the control towers or at radar rooms distant from the airports, will cut the ability to land airplanes, and in some cases ... may require closing some runways."  Matthew Wald in the New York Times.

Guns

Two gun measures actually passed the Senate. The Senate should be embarrassed. "The last whimpers of the gun control debate in the Senate played out in anticlimactic fashion ... All that remained of a broad package of measures representing the most serious changes to the nation’s gun laws in 20 years were two amendments: one that would address mental health care, and another that would penalize states that divulge information about gun owners except under very specific circumstances like a criminal investigation." Jeremy Peters in the New York Times.

Dems will continue to push on the issue.  "None of this is to say that we’re likely to see gun legislation pass anytime soon. Rather, the point is that one of the hidden lessons in the Toomey-Manchin defeat ... is that Democrats have broad incentives to keep pushing this issue, thanks to shifting national demographics and changing priorities within the Democratic Party. ... The shift in Democratic Party politics triggered by Newtown — in which Dems now prioritize gun control ... will continue despite the defeat this week. That’s why Obama vowed to keep pushing on the issue, and that’s why you’re very likely to see Democrats continue to do just that."  Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.

Health

Almost 26 million people will be eligible for health tax credits under the Affordable Care Act. "As experts focus on the cost of requiring everybody to have health coverage next year, a new study highlights the broad reach of federal subsidies to help people pay for it. Nearly 26 million Americans will be eligible for tax credits under the Affordable Care Act to partly offset the cost of insurance in online state marketplaces..." Jay Hancock at Kaiser Health News.

Immigration

Will the guns debacle brighten the prospects for immigration reform? "In the strange political calculus that is Washington, the death of gun-control legislation in the Senate this week could boost the prospects of the next big contentious issue on the docket: immigration reform."  Paul Kane in the Washington Post.

Does Boston mean no immigration reform?  Conservatives are already going there.  They should go away.  "The simple fact is that the situation in Boston has little to do with the 'immigration system.' Both suspects were legal immigrants who came over as children—tougher background checks or more security wouldn’t have prevented the tragedy on Monday, or last evening’s shootout.  Indeed, short of constant surveillance and identity checks—in other words, a police state—it’s hard to think of anything that could have prevented it."  Jamelle Bouie in the American Prospect.

LGBT Rights

Social conservatives will prevent Republican endorsement of same-sex marriage for the foreseeable future.  "Republicans — who may privately favor marriage equality — aren’t going to announce their support anytime soon. Social conservatives are still an important group within the Republican Party. They provide donors and volunteers, and are a key constituency in GOP nomination contests at all levels." Jamelle Bouie at the Plum Line.

Pre-K

Universal preschool - path to the middle class.  "High-quality preschool appears to propel better outcomes by enhancing non-cognitive skills such as persistence, self-control and emotion regulation — skills that depend on early brain development and social experiences and contribute to long-term academic outcomes and career success."  Arne Duncan in the Washington Post.

International

Asia

China has deployed the DF-21D opposite Taiwan.  "The Chinese military has deployed its new anti-ship ballistic missile along its southern coast facing Taiwan, the Pentagon’s top military intelligence officer said today.  The missile, designated the DF-21D, is one of a 'growing number of conventionally armed' new weapons China is deploying to the region, adding to more than 1,200 short-range missiles opposite the island democracy."  Tony Capaccio at Bloomberg.

Middle East

US finalizing an arms deal with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.  "The Defense Department is expected to finalize a $10 billion arms deal with Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates next week that will provide missiles, warplanes and troop transports to help them counter any future threat from Iran."  Thom Shanker in the New York Times.

The end of Palestinian democracy?  "With Fayyad's departure, Abbas seems to have overcome any institutional restraints on his power: He heads both the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and Fatah, the dominant faction within it, and is also now four years past the end of his term as president of the PA, with no new elections in sight. After a two-decade experiment in Palestinian democracy ... it's now hard to deny that Abbas looks an awful lot like the autocratic Arafat."  Jonathan Schanzer in Foreign Policy.

South America

Winners and losers in Venezuela's presidential election.  "Nicolas Maduro's victory may be only skin-deep, and there is an upside to Henrique Capriles' loss."  Charles Shapiro in the LA Times.

Science

New Earth-like, possibly habitable planets - courtesy of the Kepler project.  "NASA's Kepler mission has discovered a trio of distant planets ... orbiting in the so-called Goldilocks Zone of their parent stars – the 'just-right' range at which liquid water, and life, can exist on a planet's surface.  NASA's Kepler mission has been hunting for worlds beyond our solar system for a little over four years now ... In that time, it's spotted literally thousands of planetary candidates. Today, three distant worlds –dubbed Kepler-62f, Kepler-62e, and Kepler-69c –have achieved planetary confirmation, while joining an elite cadre of so-called habitable planets."  io9.

Miscellaneous 

The Boy Scouts are set to end the ban on gay members.  But keep the ban on gay adult leaders.  "The Boy Scouts of America on Friday proposed lifting a ban on gay scouts but maintaining a prohibition on gay adults from leading troops, a compromise that attempts to end a fight that has split the century-old American institution into bitter factions."  Atossa Abrahamian at Reuters.

Is locavorism good policy?  "The locavores seem to have missed other important lessons of Economics 101—namely, the benefits of specialization and comparative advantage. By letting people specialize in those things that they are relatively good at making and then trading with others, we all become richer and better off than if we all tried to be self-sufficient. It’s no coincidence that the cultivation of crops such as corn, wheat, potatoes, and grapes is clustered in certain parts of the country best suited to them." Henry Miller and Jayson Lusk at the Hoover Institution.

Thursday: 4/18/13

Boston and Terrorism

What makes lone wolf terrorists so dangerous?  "What makes lone wolves so dangerous is their ability to think outside the box. Since they operate by themselves, there is no group pressure or decision-making process that might stifle creativity. ... This freedom has resulted in some of the most imaginative terrorist attacks in history. ... Lone wolves also have little or no constraints on their level of violence. Because they are not part of a group, lone wolves are not concerned with alienating supporters ... nor are they concerned with a potential government and law-enforcement crackdown following an attack." Jeffrey Simon in Foreign Policy.

The New York Post is an embarrassment to journalism - their errors in the Boston story and other unrelated retractions.  "In all fairness, the paper has gotten some things right in its coverage. ... The New York Post correctly reported that the Boston Marathon takes place in Boston, Massachusetts. 'Boston' is spelled correctly.  The current governor of the state is Deval Patrick.  Participants in the Boston Marathon are, in American English, colloquially referred to as 'runners.'  Massachusetts General Hospital is a medical facility."  Elias Groll at Foreign Policy.

Texas

The fertilizer explosion in Texas.  "The blast was so powerful that the United States Geological Survey registered it as a 2.1-magnitude earthquake. It reduced an apartment complex to a charred skeleton, leveled homes in a five-block radius and burned with such intensity that railroad tracks were fused. It killed up to 15 people and injured up to 180."  Manny Fernandez and John Schwartz in the New York Times.

Explosions at fertilizer plants - and other facts about the fertilizer industry.  "Based on data from the Guardian, there have been at least 16 unintended explosions of ammonium nitrate since 1921 that have led to casualties. Six of those have occurred in the United States. ... Early reports suggest there was as much as 270 tons of ammonium nitrate present at the facility in West, Texas."  Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.  

The US Chemical Safety Board has management problems.  "Three years after Tesoro and Deepwater Horizon, both inquiries remain open—exemplars of a chemical board under attack for what critics call its sluggish investigative pace and short attention span. A former board member calls the agency 'grossly mismanaged.' ... Thirteen board investigations—one more than five years old—are incomplete."  Jim Morris and Chris Hamby at the Center for Public Integrity.

Politics

Congress

The Senate, in two graphs.  "The Senate has always disproportionately represented small states, but the bias hasn’t always been extreme."  Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog.

This week in foreign policy fights: John McCain vs Rand Paul.  "Tensions within the Republican Party on foreign policy reemerged on Thursday with Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) taking a broad shot at the vision of Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and his allies. ... McCain took several not so subtle swipes at Paul’s recent attempts to take on the GOP’s foreign policy orthodoxy and singled out the anti-drone filibuster Paul led in March as an example of Republicans yielding to political pressure to back something easy rather than asking tough questions about foreign policy."  Hayes Brown at Think Progress.

Cybersecurity

CISPA fights are coming.  "The House of Representatives passed a controversial cybersecurity bill ... moving toward a possible confrontation with the Senate and White House.  The bill makes it easier for companies to share information with other companies and the government about cyber attacks. Critics ... argued that the bill made it too easy for companies and the government to gain access to private data, absolved companies of too much legal liability, and failed to ensure that civilian rather than military agencies would facilitate the sharing of information."  Chris O'Brien in the LA Times.

Elections

Long-term trends, not racism, cost Obama millions of votes.  "Even after correcting for an inflated Western baseline, some portion of the remaining votes lost due to racism must be attributed to long-term trends in Appalachia. Exactly how many votes Obama might have lost due to racism in Appalachia is harder to say. To the extent that Obama’s decline went above and beyond the longer term Democratic in Appalachia, racism could be part of the cause—although that’s tough to pinpoint, since Gore suffered just as much as Obama."  Nate Cohn in the New Republic.

Surveying the Republican field for 2016.  "Republicans might want to consider a Midwestern candidate in 2016 because if current demographic trends continue, the Midwest could be the must-win area for Republican presidential candidates. It’s whiter than the nation as a whole. This matters because Republicans may not be able to do much better than their current 20% of the votes of non-white voters ... and non-whites will probably make up about 30% of the presidential electorate next time. Therefore, the GOP nominee will need to squeeze even more votes out of the nation’s white presidential electorate..."  Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley at Sabato's Crystal Ball.   

How can we identify vulnerable incumbents in the House?  Follow the cash trail.  "The Federal Election Commission continues to process campaign finance reports covering activity through March, but one pattern is already clear: which House members are most vulnerable in the eyes of their colleagues.  ... The list ... is a good indication of where members of the House leadership in both parties are focusing their efforts to boost fund-raising totals."  Derek Willis at FiveThirtyEight.

It's tough being Mark Sanford.  "National Republicans ... backed away from Mark Sanford, the former South Carolina governor who is now running for Congress, after court documents alleged that he trespassed at his ex-wife’s house.  The National Republican Congressional Committee said it would not provide any money for Mr. Sanford’s comeback bid, as his campaign tried to stanch the fallout from his latest personal scandal." Robbie Brown at the Caucus.

Guns

Op-ed of the year. Usually, there would be a quotation here. Gabrielle Giffords' op-ed is too damn amazing to quote. So, read the whole thing. Seriously. I'd hope you read everything, but at least read this. Gabrielle Giffords in the New York Times.

The blame game.  "Obviously, the vote wasn't entirely along partisan lines, and four red-state Democrats who broke ranks and sided with the minority deserve the scrutiny they've received.  But let's at least try to be objective about what happened. There was a Republican filibuster, which the vast majority of Republicans supported. Four Democrats broke ranks, but even if they had stuck with their party, the proposal would have come up short -- because of the scope of Republican opposition."  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

In defense of anti-fatalism.  "Some of my own colleagues were arguing it was a big waste of time and effort. ... This kind of rationalization and detachment is terribly destructive. It validates obstructionism ... It demoralizes supporters ... It muddies the historical record and exaggerates the legend of the gun lobby ... And it undercuts broader public support." Alec Macgillis in the New Republic.

A turning point on the power of the NRA?  "The NRA will never, ever be stronger in Washington than it was yesterday.  Historians will see this recent debate ... as the time when the gun-control lobby grew and coalesced. The gun issue, since the 1970s a blunt instrument used mainly to bully rural-state Democrats, is going to start turning into the opposite: pressure on blue- and purple-state Republicans to vote at least for modest measures. ... More rounds are coming, and the balance of power is going to change."  Michael Tomasky in the Daily Beast.
 
Focus on the long game.  "It really does come down to whether those who really care about it can sustain their effort over time, build support, and be ready with consensus legislation when the time comes. That wasn’t the case this time, as we found out this week. But as brutal as today was those who care about gun violence, the overall process can still be a step forward — if people keep working at it." Jonathan Bernstein in the Washington Post.

The gun lobby might be in trouble in 2016.  "The vote suggested that, after years in which gun-control has been sublimated as a political issue, support for expanding background checks and possibly further steps has again become a political norm in almost all of the blue-leaning states that underpin the recent Democratic advantage in the race for the White House."  Ronald Brownstein in the National Journal.

Can another tragedy make a difference after Newtown?  "The inability of what happened in Newtown to move the gun debate in Congress forward in any meaningful way — the biggest 'victory' for gun control advocates was that the bill got the requisite votes to be debated and amended on the Senate floor — suggests that there are no external events or tragedies that will fundamentally alter the political calculus of members of Congress when it comes to gun laws." Chris Cillizza at the Fix.

The background check amendment failed because the Senate is not a democracy.  "The supporters' majority was even bigger than it seems. ... Senators voting for the bill represented about 194 million people ... That’s getting close to a two-thirds majority in favor of the measure.  In a legislative body that didn’t give sparsely populated rural states the same representation as densely populated urban ones—and in which a minority of representatives lacked the power to block debate indefinitely—those kinds of numbers would be more than enough to pass something like the background check proposal."  Jonathan Cohn and Eric Kingsbury in the New Republic.

The claim that Newtown families are props is so ridiculously offensive.  "All of this aside, the “props” line is actually an insult to the families, posing as a defense of them. It implies that the families, in lobbying on these issues, are not thinking for themselves. In reality, the families want to stand with the President at events for a fairly obvious reason: Obama is fighting for the same things they want."  Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.

The limits of the public's power.  "'If you ever wanted a textbook example of intensity trumping preference, this is it,” ... 'You could have 100 percent of those polled saying they wanted universal background checks and it would still be defeated. You can’t translate poll results into public policy.' ... Those voices could not overcome the power of the National Rifle Association, the rest of the gun lobby or the procedural obstacles that are common in the Senate."  Dan Balz in the Washington Post.

The public also has, frankly, some dumb stances on guns.  "In another sign of the difficulties that the gun control movement faces politically, a new poll shows that a majority of Americans accept one of the central premises of the gun rights movement: Lost amid the debate is the fact that for the first time a majority of Americans say having a gun in the household makes it a safer place to be..."  Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.

New Kansas nullification law - it would be scary if it wasn't so stupid.  "Under the new state law, federal measures that violate the Second Amendment will be ignored in Kansas.  They'll also be ignored in ... every other state. You see, laws that are deemed unconstitutional are 'null, void and unenforceable' everywhere in the U.S. That's kind of how our legal system works -- if Congress passes a law, and it's found to be in violation of the Constitution, the law goes away." Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

Health

Want to cut health costs? Show doctors a price tag.  "In November 2009, the Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore did something that hospitals rarely ever do. The hospital began showing doctors the prices of the medical procedures they ordered. ... When doctors saw this information, they ordered 9.1 percent fewer tests for their patients. That, a new paper in the Journal of the American Medical Association finds, saved the hospital just about $400,000.  'Our study offers evidence that presenting providers with associated test fees as they order is a simple and unobtrusive way to alter behavior,'"  Sarah Kliff at Wonkblog.

The US is failing on children's health.  "The United States has done it again — and not in a good way.  According to a Unicef report issued last week — 'Child Well-Being in Rich Countries' — the United States once again ranked among the worst wealthy countries for children, coming in 26th place of 29 countries included. Only Lithuania, Latvia and Romania placed lower, and those were among the poorest countries assessed in the study."  Charles Blow in the New York Times.  

Immigration

An immigration deal won't help Republicans with Latinos.  "First, there's the simple fact that Latinos lean further to the left than most Americans. ... Seventy-five percent of Hispanics say they support bigger government with more services, and 30 percent describe themselves as 'liberal,' compared to 21 percent of the general population. They're highly supportive of Obamacare, and broadly in favor of gay rights. ... You should also add the Democratic Party's long relationship with Hispanics. ... Republicans can lead on immigration reform ... It will take more than that, however, to reclaim lost ground."  Jamelle Bouie in the Daily Beast.

International

Asia

Chinese authorities suspect human-to-human transmission of H7N9 avian flu.  "The Chinese National Health and Family Planning Commission said on Thursday it could not rule out human-to-human transmission in the case of a Shanghai family ... Some of the H7N9 patients have had no contact with poultry, making human-to-human transmission a real possibility, the World Health Organization said on Wednesday."  Adam Pasick at Quartz.


Will the State Department sanction China and Russia for human trafficking?  "In last year's Trafficking in Persons (TIP) report, both China and Russia were on what's known as the Tier 2 Watch List, which is the second-worst rating a country can receive. ... Countries cannot stay on the Tier 2 Watch List forever, and this year the State Department must either promote Russia and China to Tier 2 status or demote those countries to Tier 3, the lowest classification, which is shared by the likes of Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Sudan, and Zimbabwe. Tier 3 status opens those countries to sanctions from the U.S. government."  Josh Rogin at the Cable.

Middle East

Britain, France claim Syria used chemical weapons. "Britain and France have informed the United Nations there is credible evidence that Syria has fired chemical weapons more than once in the past several months, according to senior U.N.-based diplomats and officials briefed on the accounts." Colum Lynch at Turtle Bay.

Musharraf has been caught.  "On Thursday morning, he fled from the Islamabad High Court, which had denied his plea for bail after a lower court ordered his arrest in a treason case against him, and retreated to his villa in the Islamabad suburb of Chak Shahzad, hoping to avoid criminal prosecution. And on Friday, he was arrested by Islamabad police."  Arif Rafiq in Foreign Policy.

Kings of cowardice: Gulf regimes aren't laughing with comedians.  "Egyptian comedian Bassem Youssef rocketed to global celebrity last month after being charged for insulting President Mohamed Morsy. ... Arab leaders have never been known for their sense of humor, but this is ridiculous. In troubled Bahrain, the cabinet this week backed strict new laws punishing defamation of the monarchy and its symbols. Qatar sentenced poet Mohammed al-Ajami to life in prison late last year for "insulting the emir," ... Saudi Arabia imprisoned leading human rights activists ... for their alleged insults to the leadership."  Marc Lynch in Foreign Policy.

South America

The U.S. might not recognize the new Venezuelan government.  "The prospects for a thawing of relations between the United States and Venezuela with the election of a new President aren’t looking so good at the moment ... U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called for a recount of Venezuelan President-elect Nicolas Maduro’s narrow win, but Maduro told Kerry to mind his business. ... Kerry also told the House panel he had not yet determined if Washington would recognize Maduro’s victory as legitimate." Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.

Economics

Are the largest American businesses beyond economies of scale?  "Overall, estimated cost functions suggest the limits of scale may have been reached for some very large firms.  Merger studies support this. The “winner’s curse” describes the phenomenon of mergers destroying value for the shareholders of an acquiring firm. Research ... provides one explanation: close to two-thirds of managers overestimate the economies of scale a merger will deliver, often overegging the benefits by more than 25%. Size can even drive costs up, if firms get too big to manage efficiently."  The Economist.

When growth is low, austerity hurts.  It hurts a lot.  "In the kind of weak economy that gives you a high multiplier, budget cuts and tax increases hurt growth in the short run. What’s worse, they might even add to the debt burden. ... And because the economy is shrinking by more than the debt burden is growing, the debt-to-GDP ratio would actually go up. Even if you think that high debt-to-GDP ratios cause slower growth, the answer may not be short-term austerity." Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog.

If carbon markets can't work in Europe, can they work anywhere?  "The ETS—and carbon trading more generally—is not doing well, and its problems are taking some of the green shine off of Europe. Since its launch the ETS has struggled, with the price of carbon falling as the 2008 recession and overly generous carbon allowances undercut the market."  Bryan Walsh in Time.

Science

Plasma is cool.  Controlling it is even cooler.  "Researchers at the University of Missouri have devised a method of creating and launching rings of plasma through open air. Depending on your point of view, this could have significant repercussions for the energy generation and storage industry… or, more realistically, this could be exactly what the nascent plasma weapons industry needs to finally get plasma rifles and shields onto the market."  Sebastian Anthony at ExtremeTech.

Miscellaneous

What essays affected international relations?  "Narrowing the focus to international relations and U.S. foreign policy, I started to think if one could point to essays that really did affect the contours of world politics. The effect couldn't just be because of who the author was ... but rather the content of the ideas. Here's my somewhat obvious short list." Daniel Drezner at Foreign Policy.

Sorority girls gone wild.  "A tipster forwarded us the following expletive and CAPS-ridden email tirade, sent to the entire sorority chapter by one of its executive board members, that will go down in history as one of the most passionate denunciations of F***ING AWKWARD AND BORING-ness ever committed to words."  Caity Weaver at Gawker.