Boston and Terrorism
What makes lone wolf terrorists so dangerous? "What makes lone wolves so dangerous is their ability to think outside the box. Since they operate by themselves, there is no group pressure or decision-making process that might stifle creativity. ... This freedom has resulted in some of the most imaginative terrorist attacks in history. ... Lone wolves also have little or no constraints on their level of violence. Because they are not part of a group, lone wolves are not concerned with alienating supporters ... nor are they concerned with a potential government and law-enforcement crackdown following an attack." Jeffrey Simon in Foreign Policy.
The New York Post is an embarrassment to journalism - their errors in the Boston story and other unrelated retractions. "In all fairness, the paper has gotten some things right in its coverage. ... The New York Post correctly reported that the Boston Marathon takes place in Boston, Massachusetts. 'Boston' is spelled correctly. The current governor of the state is Deval Patrick. Participants in the Boston Marathon are, in American English, colloquially referred to as 'runners.' Massachusetts General Hospital is a medical facility." Elias Groll at Foreign Policy.
Texas
The fertilizer explosion in Texas. "The blast was so powerful that the United States Geological Survey registered it as a 2.1-magnitude earthquake. It reduced an apartment complex to a charred skeleton, leveled homes in a five-block radius and burned with such intensity that railroad tracks were fused. It killed up to 15 people and injured up to 180." Manny Fernandez and John Schwartz in the New York Times.
Explosions at fertilizer plants - and other facts about the fertilizer industry. "Based on data from the Guardian, there have been at least 16 unintended explosions of ammonium nitrate since 1921 that have led to casualties. Six of those have occurred in the United States. ... Early reports suggest there was as much as 270 tons of ammonium nitrate present at the facility in West, Texas." Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.
The US Chemical Safety Board has management problems. "Three years after Tesoro and Deepwater Horizon, both inquiries remain open—exemplars of a chemical board under attack for what critics call its sluggish investigative pace and short attention span. A former board member calls the agency 'grossly mismanaged.' ... Thirteen board investigations—one more than five years old—are incomplete." Jim Morris and Chris Hamby at the Center for Public Integrity.
Politics
Congress
The Senate, in two graphs. "The Senate has always disproportionately represented small states, but the bias hasn’t always been extreme." Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog.
This week in foreign policy fights: John McCain vs Rand Paul. "Tensions within the Republican Party on foreign policy reemerged on Thursday with Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) taking a broad shot at the vision of Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and his allies. ... McCain took several not so subtle swipes at Paul’s recent attempts to take on the GOP’s foreign policy orthodoxy and singled out the anti-drone filibuster Paul led in March as an example of Republicans yielding to political pressure to back something easy rather than asking tough questions about foreign policy." Hayes Brown at Think Progress.
This week in foreign policy fights: John McCain vs Rand Paul. "Tensions within the Republican Party on foreign policy reemerged on Thursday with Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) taking a broad shot at the vision of Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and his allies. ... McCain took several not so subtle swipes at Paul’s recent attempts to take on the GOP’s foreign policy orthodoxy and singled out the anti-drone filibuster Paul led in March as an example of Republicans yielding to political pressure to back something easy rather than asking tough questions about foreign policy." Hayes Brown at Think Progress.
Cybersecurity
CISPA fights are coming. "The House of Representatives passed a controversial cybersecurity bill ... moving toward a possible confrontation with the Senate and White House. The bill makes it easier for companies to share information with other companies and the government about cyber attacks. Critics ... argued that the bill made it too easy for companies and the government to gain access to private data, absolved companies of too much legal liability, and failed to ensure that civilian rather than military agencies would facilitate the sharing of information." Chris O'Brien in the LA Times.
Elections
Surveying the Republican field for 2016. "Republicans might want to consider a Midwestern candidate in 2016 because if current demographic trends continue, the Midwest could be the must-win area for Republican presidential candidates. It’s whiter than the nation as a whole. This matters because Republicans may not be able to do much better than their current 20% of the votes of non-white voters ... and non-whites will probably make up about 30% of the presidential electorate next time. Therefore, the GOP nominee will need to squeeze even more votes out of the nation’s white presidential electorate..." Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley at Sabato's Crystal Ball.
How can we identify vulnerable incumbents in the House? Follow the cash trail. "The Federal Election Commission continues to process campaign finance reports covering activity through March, but one pattern is already clear: which House members are most vulnerable in the eyes of their colleagues. ... The list ... is a good indication of where members of the House leadership in both parties are focusing their efforts to boost fund-raising totals." Derek Willis at FiveThirtyEight.
It's tough being Mark Sanford. "National Republicans ... backed away from Mark Sanford, the former South Carolina governor who is now running for Congress, after court documents alleged that he trespassed at his ex-wife’s house. The National Republican Congressional Committee said it would not provide any money for Mr. Sanford’s comeback bid, as his campaign tried to stanch the fallout from his latest personal scandal." Robbie Brown at the Caucus.
Guns
Op-ed of the year. Usually, there would be a quotation here. Gabrielle Giffords' op-ed is too damn amazing to quote. So, read the whole thing. Seriously. I'd hope you read everything, but at least read this. Gabrielle Giffords in the New York Times.
The blame game. "Obviously, the vote wasn't entirely along partisan lines, and four red-state Democrats who broke ranks and sided with the minority deserve the scrutiny they've received. But let's at least try to be objective about what happened. There was a Republican filibuster, which the vast majority of Republicans supported. Four Democrats broke ranks, but even if they had stuck with their party, the proposal would have come up short -- because of the scope of Republican opposition." Steve Benen at Maddowblog.
In defense of anti-fatalism. "Some of my own colleagues were arguing it was a big waste of time and effort. ... This kind of rationalization and detachment is terribly destructive. It validates obstructionism ... It demoralizes supporters ... It muddies the historical record and exaggerates the legend of the gun lobby ... And it undercuts broader public support." Alec Macgillis in the New Republic.
A turning point on the power of the NRA? "The NRA will never, ever be stronger in Washington than it was yesterday. Historians will see this recent debate ... as the time when the gun-control lobby grew and coalesced. The gun issue, since the 1970s a blunt instrument used mainly to bully rural-state Democrats, is going to start turning into the opposite: pressure on blue- and purple-state Republicans to vote at least for modest measures. ... More rounds are coming, and the balance of power is going to change." Michael Tomasky in the Daily Beast.
Focus on the long game. "It really does come down to whether those who really care about it can sustain their effort over time, build support, and be ready with consensus legislation when the time comes. That wasn’t the case this time, as we found out this week. But as brutal as today was those who care about gun violence, the overall process can still be a step forward — if people keep working at it." Jonathan Bernstein in the Washington Post.
The gun lobby might be in trouble in 2016. "The vote suggested that, after years in which gun-control has been sublimated as a political issue, support for expanding background checks and possibly further steps has again become a political norm in almost all of the blue-leaning states that underpin the recent Democratic advantage in the race for the White House." Ronald Brownstein in the National Journal.
Can another tragedy make a difference after Newtown? "The inability of what happened in Newtown to move the gun debate in Congress forward in any meaningful way — the biggest 'victory' for gun control advocates was that the bill got the requisite votes to be debated and amended on the Senate floor — suggests that there are no external events or tragedies that will fundamentally alter the political calculus of members of Congress when it comes to gun laws." Chris Cillizza at the Fix.
The background check amendment failed because the Senate is not a democracy. "The supporters' majority was even bigger than it seems. ... Senators voting for the bill represented about 194 million people ... That’s getting close to a two-thirds majority in favor of the measure. In a legislative body that didn’t give sparsely populated rural states the same representation as densely populated urban ones—and in which a minority of representatives lacked the power to block debate indefinitely—those kinds of numbers would be more than enough to pass something like the background check proposal." Jonathan Cohn and Eric Kingsbury in the New Republic.
The claim that Newtown families are props is so ridiculously offensive. "All of this aside, the “props” line is actually an insult to the families, posing as a defense of them. It implies that the families, in lobbying on these issues, are not thinking for themselves. In reality, the families want to stand with the President at events for a fairly obvious reason: Obama is fighting for the same things they want." Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.
The limits of the public's power. "'If you ever wanted a textbook example of intensity trumping preference, this is it,” ... 'You could have 100 percent of those polled saying they wanted universal background checks and it would still be defeated. You can’t translate poll results into public policy.' ... Those voices could not overcome the power of the National Rifle Association, the rest of the gun lobby or the procedural obstacles that are common in the Senate." Dan Balz in the Washington Post.
The public also has, frankly, some dumb stances on guns. "In another sign of the difficulties that the gun control movement faces politically, a new poll shows that a majority of Americans accept one of the central premises of the gun rights movement: Lost amid the debate is the fact that for the first time a majority of Americans say having a gun in the household makes it a safer place to be..." Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.
New Kansas nullification law - it would be scary if it wasn't so stupid. "Under the new state law, federal measures that violate the Second Amendment will be ignored in Kansas. They'll also be ignored in ... every other state. You see, laws that are deemed unconstitutional are 'null, void and unenforceable' everywhere in the U.S. That's kind of how our legal system works -- if Congress passes a law, and it's found to be in violation of the Constitution, the law goes away." Steve Benen at Maddowblog.
Health
Want to cut health costs? Show doctors a price tag. "In November 2009, the Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore did something that hospitals rarely ever do. The hospital began showing doctors the prices of the medical procedures they ordered. ... When doctors saw this information, they ordered 9.1 percent fewer tests for their patients. That, a new paper in the Journal of the American Medical Association finds, saved the hospital just about $400,000. 'Our study offers evidence that presenting providers with associated test fees as they order is a simple and unobtrusive way to alter behavior,'" Sarah Kliff at Wonkblog.
The US is failing on children's health. "The United States has done it again — and not in a good way. According to a Unicef report issued last week — 'Child Well-Being in Rich Countries' — the United States once again ranked among the worst wealthy countries for children, coming in 26th place of 29 countries included. Only Lithuania, Latvia and Romania placed lower, and those were among the poorest countries assessed in the study." Charles Blow in the New York Times.
Immigration
An immigration deal won't help Republicans with Latinos. "First, there's the simple fact that Latinos lean further to the left than most Americans. ... Seventy-five percent of Hispanics say they support bigger government with more services, and 30 percent describe themselves as 'liberal,' compared to 21 percent of the general population. They're highly supportive of Obamacare, and broadly in favor of gay rights. ... You should also add the Democratic Party's long relationship with Hispanics. ... Republicans can lead on immigration reform ... It will take more than that, however, to reclaim lost ground." Jamelle Bouie in the Daily Beast.
International
Asia
Will the State Department sanction China and Russia for human trafficking? "In last year's Trafficking in Persons (TIP) report, both China and Russia were on what's known as the Tier 2 Watch List, which is the second-worst rating a country can receive. ... Countries cannot stay on the Tier 2 Watch List forever, and this year the State Department must either promote Russia and China to Tier 2 status or demote those countries to Tier 3, the lowest classification, which is shared by the likes of Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Sudan, and Zimbabwe. Tier 3 status opens those countries to sanctions from the U.S. government." Josh Rogin at the Cable.
Middle East
Britain, France claim Syria used chemical weapons. "Britain and France have informed the United Nations there is credible evidence that Syria has fired chemical weapons more than once in the past several months, according to senior U.N.-based diplomats and officials briefed on the accounts." Colum Lynch at Turtle Bay.
Musharraf has been caught. "On Thursday morning, he fled from the Islamabad High Court, which had denied his plea for bail after a lower court ordered his arrest in a treason case against him, and retreated to his villa in the Islamabad suburb of Chak Shahzad, hoping to avoid criminal prosecution. And on Friday, he was arrested by Islamabad police." Arif Rafiq in Foreign Policy.
Kings of cowardice: Gulf regimes aren't laughing with comedians. "Egyptian comedian Bassem Youssef rocketed to global celebrity last month after being charged for insulting President Mohamed Morsy. ... Arab leaders have never been known for their sense of humor, but this is ridiculous. In troubled Bahrain, the cabinet this week backed strict new laws punishing defamation of the monarchy and its symbols. Qatar sentenced poet Mohammed al-Ajami to life in prison late last year for "insulting the emir," ... Saudi Arabia imprisoned leading human rights activists ... for their alleged insults to the leadership." Marc Lynch in Foreign Policy.
South America
Economics
Are the largest American businesses beyond economies of scale? "Overall, estimated cost functions suggest the limits of scale may have been reached for some very large firms. Merger studies support this. The “winner’s curse” describes the phenomenon of mergers destroying value for the shareholders of an acquiring firm. Research ... provides one explanation: close to two-thirds of managers overestimate the economies of scale a merger will deliver, often overegging the benefits by more than 25%. Size can even drive costs up, if firms get too big to manage efficiently." The Economist.
When growth is low, austerity hurts. It hurts a lot. "In the kind of weak economy that gives you a high multiplier, budget cuts and tax increases hurt growth in the short run. What’s worse, they might even add to the debt burden. ... And because the economy is shrinking by more than the debt burden is growing, the debt-to-GDP ratio would actually go up. Even if you think that high debt-to-GDP ratios cause slower growth, the answer may not be short-term austerity." Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog.
If carbon markets can't work in Europe, can they work anywhere? "The ETS—and carbon trading more generally—is not doing well, and its problems are taking some of the green shine off of Europe. Since its launch the ETS has struggled, with the price of carbon falling as the 2008 recession and overly generous carbon allowances undercut the market." Bryan Walsh in Time.
Science
Plasma is cool. Controlling it is even cooler. "Researchers at the University of Missouri have devised a method of creating and launching rings of plasma through open air. Depending on your point of view, this could have significant repercussions for the energy generation and storage industry… or, more realistically, this could be exactly what the nascent plasma weapons industry needs to finally get plasma rifles and shields onto the market." Sebastian Anthony at ExtremeTech.
Miscellaneous
What essays affected international relations? "Narrowing the focus to international relations and U.S. foreign policy, I started to think if one could point to essays that really did affect the contours of world politics. The effect couldn't just be because of who the author was ... but rather the content of the ideas. Here's my somewhat obvious short list." Daniel Drezner at Foreign Policy.
Sorority girls gone wild. "A tipster forwarded us the following expletive and CAPS-ridden email tirade, sent to the entire sorority chapter by one of its executive board members, that will go down in history as one of the most passionate denunciations of F***ING AWKWARD AND BORING-ness ever committed to words." Caity Weaver at Gawker.
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