Wednesday: 4/17/13

Boston and Terrorism

All of Boston's wounded have survived, so far.  "The Boston Marathon bombing injured more than 170 people, many sustaining critical wounds that required amputations. That makes it all the more remarkable that ... all have survived.  It’s remarkable, and the product of years of preparation. In the years after the September 2011 terrorist attacks, hospitals have invested significant resources in preparing for trauma situations like this one.."  Sarah Kliff at Wonkblog.

CNN jumped the gun, again.  "CNN reported that a suspect had been arrested in Boston. But then they had to report that they were wrong. There has been no arrest. ... You get something like this wrong, everybody who pays attention to news remembers. Now CNN will live with the memory of this and its horribly wrong call on the Supreme Court health-care decision." Michael Tomasky in the Daily Beast.

Smoke color is a very important clue, but that doesn't mean tracking the bomber will be easy.  "A key clue is already in plain sight ... the color of the smoke.  The color provides important insights into the type of explosive used in the blasts ... Analyzing the color of the smoke can provide information about the explosive that powered the bombs, which in turn provides clues about its sophistication — and, possibly, that of the people who made it. ... None of that resolves the harder question of identifying the bombmakers."  Spencer Ackerman at the Danger Room.

The bombs appear to be similar to 'lone wolf' devices.  "The devices used in the Boston Marathon attack Monday are typical of the 'lone wolf:' the solo terrorist who builds a bomb on his own by following a widely available formula."  Tim Lister and Paul Cruickshank at CNN.

From Guantánamo to Boston, why Americans have a dangerous tendency to overreact to terrorism.  "When we're faced with evil on the scale of 9/11 or the Boston bombing, what we want to know most of all is, 'Who did this and why?' On the heels of these intellectual questions comes a more primal desire: revenge. We want to inflict the worst possible damage on those who would do us harm. The thinking ... goes something like this: 'You hurt me. Now I'm going to hurt you even more.'" Bruce Weinstein in Foreign Policy.

Politics

Abortion

Despite what you've heard from conservatives, the solution to unsafe abortion clinics is not eroding access.  "The Gosnell case will be used by opponents of reproductive freedom to advocate for more arbitrary regulations ... women kept going to Gosnell's clinic 'because they felt they had no alternative.' That alternative is clinics where even poor women can obtain safe first-trimester abortions in a timely manner, without having to navigate a blizzard of regulatory impediments with the sole purpose of inhibiting access to abortion." Scott Lemieux in the American Prospect.

Back to the courts, we go.  "Supporters of abortion rights on Tuesday filed a challenge to the new Arkansas law banning most abortions at the 12th week of pregnancy, calling it a 'violation of over 40 years of settled United States Supreme Court precedent' ... most legal experts, including some prominent lawyers in the antiabortion movement, predicted that federal courts would quickly declare the laws in Arkansas ... unconstitutional." Erik Eckholm in the New York Times.

Drones

Why Obama should take drones away from the CIA.  "Doing this has three significant benefits for U.S. foreign policy.  First, it would increase the transparency of targeted killings, including what methods are used to prevent civilian harm. ... Second, it would focus the finite resources and bandwidth of the CIA on its primary responsibilities of intelligence collection, analysis, and early warning. ... Third, it would provide clear and unified congressional oversight."  Micah Zenko in Foreign Policy.

Elections

Anthony Weiner, NYC mayor?  "He's already in position to make the runoff as it stands ... his favorables are going in the right direction ... the frontrunner is stalled ... That doesn't mean he will win. ... But do I think Anthony Weiner can win this thing? Absolutely, he could." Harry Enten in the Guardian.

Nate Silver thinks it's less likely.  "The Marist poll contains poor news for Mr. Weiner ... Most of his second-place standing comes from his name recognition. And because many New Yorkers will not consider voting for him, he will need to convert an unusually high percentage of those who still might."  Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.

GOP

Remind me how that women's outreach thing is going, again?  "GOP officials have received lectures from pollsters, explaining, for example, that they should consider rape a 'four-letter word.'
Presumably the pollsters didn't think it was necessary to remind Republican lawmakers not to use refer to women as 'vaginas.'  Indeed, it seems incidents like these keep happening." Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

It's hard being Paul Ryan these days.  "Much of what Ryan does in the House will be done with an eye towards maintaining credibility with conservatives, so he can run for president in 2016. ... Ryan 'can’t sign onto any agreement that angers the tea party, anti-tax activist Grover Norquist or pro-business groups like the Club for Growth.'  And so Democrats will continue pounding Ryan, demanding that he enter into budget negotiations, in the full knowledge that appearing to be willing to compromise with Dems would damage Ryan with the GOP base, which opposes compromise with Dems at any cost." Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.

Guns

The nine gun amendments that the Senate will vote on this week.  Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.

Internet gun sales need to be regulated.  Duh.  "With no requirements for background checks on most private transactions, a Times examination found, Armslist and similar sites function as unregulated bazaars, where the essential anonymity of the Internet allows unlicensed sellers to advertise scores of weapons and people legally barred from gun ownership to buy them." Michael Luo, Mike McIntire, and Griff Palmer in the New York Times.

The background checks proposal went down in flames.  "The Senate delivered a devastating blow to President Obama’s agenda to regulate guns Wednesday by defeating a bipartisan proposal to expand background checks.  It failed by a vote of 54 to 46, with five Democrats voting against it. Only four Republicans supported it." Alexander Bolton in the Hill.

President Obama's response.  "President Obama lashed out Wednesday at gun-rights groups and senators who voted against a compromise background check amendment that was defeated in the Senate. 'This was a pretty shameful day for Washington,' Obama said ... Obama accused gun-rights groups of lying about legislation which, he noted, polls show 90 percent of Americans supported. ... A visibly angry Obama also attacked the process by which the amendment was rejected, noting that a majority of senators voted for it."  Aaron Blake in the Washington Post.

Assault weapons ban? Yeah right... "Just under 20 years ago, the Congress passed an 'Assault Weapons' ban, and it passed the Senate by an overwhelming 95-4 margin ... Today, a similar ban failed to pass the Senate ... The Senate rejected implementing an assault weapons ban Wednesday on an 40-60 vote."  Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.

Is there a silver lining to the background check filibuster?  "If it does fail, we could be looking at a pretty good issue for the Democrats in 2014. It could be the first election where more people go to the polls motivated by the gun issue who are for restrictions. McConnell may win this vote, but he and his pal LaPierre are inadvertently building a movement--on the other side." Michael Tomasky in the Daily Beast.

That silver lining will have to overcome an enormous intensity gap.  "Gun owners are far more politically engaged than are those in households without guns ... While majorities of the public support things like expanded background checks, banning or limiting high capacity magazines and reinstituting the assault weapons ban, they — by and large — don’t feel passionately about any of it. Those opposed to such measures are smaller in numbers but extremely passionate." Peyton Craighill and Chris Cilizza in the Washington Post.

Death panels, redux.  "There is no federal registry. The legislation explicitly prohibits a federal registry. ... But Cruz and his allies are convinced one will organically evolve to prevent private gun sales ... In other words, Congress has to kill one idea, because there's a paranoid fantasy about the possibility of a different idea coming up at some point in the future.  If this sounds familiar, it's what unhinged critics of the Affordable Care Act said about 'death panels.'"  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

The filibuster is the problem.  "Ask a group of progressives how we got to this point, and one will talk about the unholy power of the NRA, another will complain about Obama’s alleged lack of 'leadership,' and a third will find some way to blame the media. But look at the numbers, folks: if not for the insane, completely novel 60-vote requirement in the Senate, Manchin-Toomey would indeed be on the brink of certain passage, or more likely, the Senate would be seriously considering much tougher measures." Ed Kilgore in Washington Monthly.

Guns and the future of filibuster reform.  "With the Manchin-Toomey bill, it may matter quite a bit whether Democratic Party actors wind up blaming the NRA or the Senate rules. Not who they should blame — that’s a different question — but who they do blame.  Those who care about Senate reform should be working hard to place the blame for the gun bill squarely on Senate rules."  Jonathan Bernstein in the Washington Post.

What the background check filibuster says about the American political system.  "Everything was in place for success. This one simple idea -- close the gun-show loophole and apply background checks to online sales -- had all of the pieces lined up in its favor. The White House invested considerable energy ... the American mainstream strongly endorsed it; the memory of national tragedy still weighed heavily on everyone's minds; and the only meaningful organization lobbying against it has become a national laughingstock.  'If our democracy is working the way it's supposed to,' the bipartisan compromise should have passed while barely breaking a sweat."  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

SCOTUSwatch

Disappointing verdict in Genesis Healthcare Corp. et al. v. Symczyk, but Justice Kagan's dissent is rather awesome.  "That thrice-asserted view is wrong, wrong, and wrong again ... When a plaintiff rejects such an offer ... her interest in the lawsuit remains just what it was be­fore. ... Symczyk possessed an unsatis­fied claim, which the court could redress by awarding her damages. As long as that remained true, Symczyk’s claim was not moot, and the District Court could not send her away empty-handed. So a friendly suggestion to the Third Circuit: Rethink your mootness-by-unaccepted-offer theo­ry. And a note to all other courts of appeals: Don’t try this at home."  Kevin Drum at Mother Jones.

Warrants are needed to draw blood in drunk driving cases.  "The fact that alcohol dissipates from the bloodstream over time does not by itself give the police the right to draw blood without a warrant in drunken-driving investigations, the Supreme Court ruled on Wednesday."  Adam Liptak in the New York Times.

Headdesk.  "What started out as a case about whether corporations could be held accountable in U.S. courts for human rights violations abroad now turned into a case about whether anyone can be held accountable. And on Wednesday, a five-justice majority of the U.S. Supreme Court held that the answer is, mostly, no."  Nicole Flatow at Think Progress.

International

Oceania

New Zealand legalizes same-sex marriage. "New Zealand has become the 13th nation to legalize same-sex marriage ... and the first in the Asia-Pacific region to legalize same-sex marriage. Lawmakers voted 77 to 44 in favor of the gay-marriage bill on its third and final reading." Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.

Economics

Inequality

Inequality along the New York subway system.  Interactive graphic from the New Yorker.

Reinhart-Rogoff

Reinhart-Rogoff is important, and downplaying that is just plain stupidity.  "Probably someone, somewhere is overstating it ... but the impact of this study is very large. It was the intellectual basis for the Bowles-Simpson report.  It was cited frequently by centrist editorials, news stories (which often read like editorials), Thomas Friedman, Joe Scarborough, and pretty much everybody in Congress.  If you want to make the case that the Reinhart-Rogoff whoopsie is no big deal, implying that nobody paid much attention to it is not the way to go."  Jonathan Chait in New York Magazine. 

Science

How fish learned to walk - coelacanths may give us the answer.  "In the hope of reconstructing a pivotal step in evolution — the colonization of land by fish that learned to walk and breathe air — researchers have decoded the genome of the coelacanth, a prehistoric-looking fish whose form closely resembles those seen in the fossils of 400 million years ago."  Nicholas Wade in the New York Times.

New cosmic explosion discovered.  "Scientists working at the University of Warwick have identified an undocumented type of gamma-ray burst, the product of massive stars destroyed in a way previously unknown to astronomers.  ... As a supergiant star goes supernova, it shoots out directed beams of concentrated gamma-rays across vast distances. A typical burst can release as much energy in a few seconds as the sun does its entire 10-billion-year lifespan. ... it’s quite possible that the Ordovician extinction, which happened about 450 million years ago, was caused by a gamma-ray burst."  George Dvorsky at io9.

Self-driving cars should be here in a decade or so.  "The consensus among auto industry technologists, gathered in Detroit this week for Society of Automobile Engineers World Congress, is that by the middle of this decade, cars that can largely pilot themselves through traffic jams will be offered for sale. By 2020, cars capable of taking over most of the work of high speed driving could debut, and by 2025, fully autonomous vehicles might hit the streets in meaningful numbers."  Joseph White in the Wall Street Journal.

War of the worlds.  "An international astronomical organisation has sparked planetary conflict after criticising a privately run effort to name exoplanets."  Jacob Aron at New Scientist.

Miscellaneous

Could the U.S. be the world's most populous country in 2100?  "The United States, currently the world's third-most populous country behind China and India, could have the largest population in the world by 2100, according to new projections by Joseph Chamie, the former director of the United Nations Population Division.  There's one hitch: If the United States is to rise to first place and not fall to fourth (after being surpassed by Nigeria in 2050), it will need an eightfold increase in annual immigration."  Elizabeth Ralph in Foreign Policy.

Stop whining about air travel - flying is safer, cheaper, and better than ever.  "First the basics. A modern commercial jet moves upward of a 200 people through the air at hundreds of miles per hour ... What’s more, the price per mile flown has fallen immensely over the past 30 years. ... Air travel is fantastically safe. Over the past five years, there's been exactly one fatal crash of a U.S. airplane ... Alternatively, think about what an incredible hassle driving would be if we tried to make it as safe as air travel. You’d need stiff penalties for minor everyday errors, and traffic would have to slow down to a point of near-uselessness."  Matthew Yglesias in Slate.

The debate: Should you cook pizza at home?  Matthew Yglesias says 'no.'  A rebuttal from  J. Kenji Lopez-Alt. 

From burgers to Bud Light, America's favorite brands are now owned by foreigners.  "The new story is the rise of emerging market multinationals. As they grow, they are becoming more acquisitive. And they are not just buying well-known Western brands; they are creating some powerful ones of their own."  Afshin Molavi in Foreign Policy.

Predator drone nominated for Nobel Peace Prize.  "The General Atomics MQ-1 Predator unmanned drone was nominated Monday for the 2013 Nobel Peace Prize for its unrelenting pursuit of peace and tranquility in under-governed spaces around the globe ... 'The prize is awarded annually to recipients who have displayed an abiding commitment to ridding the world of conflict,' ... 'The Predator has shown an unwavering dedication to seeking out and eliminating sources of badness everywhere, but particularly in fragile states where its impact is felt more intimately.'"  Ross Magee at Duffel Blog.