Boston and Terrorism
Boston
Good news - all bombing patients expected to survive. "In a glimmer of good news after last week’s tragedy, all of the more than 180 people injured in the Boston Marathon blasts who made it to a hospital alive now seem likely to survive." Marilynn Marchione at Talking Points Memo.
Dzhokhar Tsarnaev to be tried in federal court. "Federal prosecutors sent a quick, clear message in the prosecution of Dzhokhar Tsarnaev Monday morning in filing a complaint in federal court listing only two specific charges, both carrying the possibility of the death penalty, according to legal observers. The charges, use of a weapon of mass destruction of property resulting in death and malicious destruction of property resulting in death, center strictly on the Boston Marathon bombings and bypass for now the other crimes linked to him." Milton Valencia in the Boston Globe.
The transcript of Tsarnaev's bedside hearing. The New York Times.
Yes, the Boston Marathon bombing included a 'weapon of mass destruction'. "Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, the surviving suspect in the Boston Marathon bombing, was charged today with using a weapon of mass destruction. It’s yet another circumstance where the legal and colloquial definitions of 'weapon of mass destruction' are at odds." Spencer Ackerman at the Danger Room.
What’s the difference between McVeigh and Tsarnaev? "What’s the difference? ... Mr. Tsarnaev is a Muslim, and the United States has since the 9/11 terrorist attacks constructed a separate and profoundly unequal system of detention and punishment that essentially applies only to Muslims. Mr. Graham and others who are demanding that prosecutors treat Mr. Tsarnaev differently from Mr. McVeigh are not even trying very hard to disguise the fact that they’re drawing distinctions based on religion and ethnicity." Andrew Rosenthal at Taking Note.
Reminder: The alleged Boston bombers were here legally. "Both of the Tsarnaev brothers, who stand accused of perpetrating last Monday’s marathon bombing, were in the United States legally. Dzhokhar, who is currently in police custody after a lengthy manhunt, is a naturalized citizen, while Tamerlan, who died in a shootout with police, had a green card and was applying for citizenship." Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog.
In defense of 'politicizing' tragedies. "The key point, however, is that responding to events — any event — by urging and taking political action is, for citizens of the United States, extremely patriotic. So, by all means, follow etiquette and prudence in hesitating to respond to this Patriots’ Day bombing and the subsequent manhunt — but then, by all means, bring the politics." Jonathan Bernstein in the Washington Post.
Fast and wrong: The incentives for speed-induced misinformation in Boston bombings coverage. "The near-infinite size of the news hole that media outlets are now expected to try to fill online, on cable, and in social media, even when little new or accurate information is available, exacerbates the challenge and creates perverse incentives. With weak reputational and commercial penalties for inaccuracy—CNN’s audience reportedly tripled from the slow-news period of the week before—reporters rushed to fill the void with whatever information was available, however dubious." Brendan Nyhan in the Columbia Journalism Review.
They may have pulled off the Boston bombing, but it doesn't appear that the Tsarnaevs were the world's smartest terrorists. "About five hours after federal investigators published photos of the the two suspects taken at the Boston Marathon, police say, they killed a Massachusetts Institute of Technology police officer Thursday night and carjacked a Mercedes SUV nearby. Cambridge Police told The Times that the Mercedes driver escaped when the brothers went inside a Shell gas station on Memorial Drive in Cambridge to buy snacks. The unidentified driver fled to another gas station to call police." Matt Pearce in the LA Times.
Fast and wrong: The incentives for speed-induced misinformation in Boston bombings coverage. "The near-infinite size of the news hole that media outlets are now expected to try to fill online, on cable, and in social media, even when little new or accurate information is available, exacerbates the challenge and creates perverse incentives. With weak reputational and commercial penalties for inaccuracy—CNN’s audience reportedly tripled from the slow-news period of the week before—reporters rushed to fill the void with whatever information was available, however dubious." Brendan Nyhan in the Columbia Journalism Review.
They may have pulled off the Boston bombing, but it doesn't appear that the Tsarnaevs were the world's smartest terrorists. "About five hours after federal investigators published photos of the the two suspects taken at the Boston Marathon, police say, they killed a Massachusetts Institute of Technology police officer Thursday night and carjacked a Mercedes SUV nearby. Cambridge Police told The Times that the Mercedes driver escaped when the brothers went inside a Shell gas station on Memorial Drive in Cambridge to buy snacks. The unidentified driver fled to another gas station to call police." Matt Pearce in the LA Times.
But seriously, incompetence all around. "Many of the Tsarnaevs' actions last week seem baffling in retrospect. Here are some of the most confounding things they did." Tim Murphy at Mother Jones.
Terrorism
America the skittish. "It's the larger response to the tragedy that worries me. Although politicians ... offered up the usual defiant statements about America's toughness and resilience in the face of terror, the overall reaction to the attacks was anything but. Public officials shut down the entire city of Boston ... It showed that a 19 year-old amateur could paralyze an entire American metropolis. ... This is not the attitude that tamed the West, stopped the Third Reich, or won the Cold War." Stephen Walt in Foreign Policy.
Politics
Agencies
Keystone fights, back again. "The Environmental Protection Agency again is raising objections to the proposed Keystone XL pipeline that would carry oil from western Canada to the Texas Gulf Coast. Despite more than four years of study, the State Department's analysis of the project's environmental impact is 'insufficient,' the EPA said Monday." The Associated Press.
Koch brothers and co. are attempting to increase the risk of industrial accidents in the wake of the West, Texas explosion. "Last Wednesday's explosion at a West, Texas, fertilizer plant, which left at least 15 people dead and more than 100 injured, was made possible by an ultra-lax state and federal oversight climate that make inspections of such facilities all but a rubber-stamp process—when they even happen. If the chemical lobby and its allies in Congress get their way, a regulatory process dismissed by environmental activists and labor unions as extremely weak would be watered down even more." Tim Murphy in Mother Jones.
Crime
Smart on crime. "The United States leads the developed world in both homicide and incarceration, and both of those evils land most heavily on poor African Americans. ... We can and should do better. But 'doing better' doesn’t mean simply focusing on social services and systemic reforms and ignoring the need for punishment. It means using punishment intelligently, which means using it as sparingly as possible but also as much as necessary. As Machiavelli warned his fellow opponents of tyranny, a reluctance to punish comes naturally with good-heartedness, but those unable to overcome that reluctance are as unfit to rule as those who have no such reluctance to begin with." Mark Kleiman in Democracy.
The Economy
Bad policy, bad outcomes. "The key question is whether workers who have been unemployed for a long time eventually come to be seen as unemployable ... Potential employers assume that something must be wrong with people who can’t find a job, even if the real reason is simply the terrible economy. And there is ... growing evidence that the tainting of the long-term unemployed is happening as we speak. ... Let’s be clear: this is a policy decision. The main reason our economic recovery has been so weak is that ... we’ve been doing exactly what basic macroeconomics says you shouldn’t do — cutting government spending in the face of a depressed economy." Paul Krugman in the New York Times.
The Civil War is still affecting the economy, over 150 years later. "The former border between the Union and the Confederation is still relevant to-day: The defunct border represents a trade barrier that lowers trade between US states by on average 7 to 20 percent. In a million placebo estimations, we find supportive evidence that the magnitude of this border effect is unique." Joshua Keating in Foreign Policy.
Elections
Gun control 2016: A winning wedge issue for the Democrats. "The good news for gun control advocates is that the myth could break in 2016. It’s easy to envision the next Democratic presidential candidate campaigning on gun control—and winning. ... Democratic presidential candidates are less reliant on rural, conservative gun owners than at any time in the history of the party. Democrats win with big margins in cities and suburbs, where support for gun control is an asset, not a hindrance. ... To win, Republicans need to reclaim the socially moderate suburbs around Denver, Washington, and Philadelphia, where gun control is a real asset to Democratic candidates." Nate Cohn in the New Republic.
Fiscal Fights
The sequester's still around, and things aren't getting better. "After months of nervous anticipation, federal workers begin the first major round of furloughs this week, even as much uncertainty remains at some agencies about how much time, if any, employees will lose from their jobs because of mandated spending cuts." Steve Vogel in the Washington Post.
Air traffic controllers are one of the early casualties. "Flights were delayed by up to two hours across the country on Monday, the first weekday that the nation’s air traffic control system operated with 10 percent fewer controllers. Pilots, gate agents and others were quick to blame furloughs caused by mandatory across-the-board budget cuts..." Matthew Wald and Jad Mouawad in the New York Times.
Newsflash: Cutting spending requires cutting spending. "Now, it’s true that if you ask Republicans whether they support this cut or that cut ... they’ll claim that, no, they only want to do away with waste, fraud, abuse, and foreign aid. But that’s not what their budgets say. It’s not what their rhetoric says, either. ... The real story here is simple: if you want massive spending cuts, that means massive cuts to government programs that people like. And one political party has been advocating those cuts, and even risking default of the government in order to get them. No matter what Republicans say now about the effects of those cuts." Jonathan Bernstein at the Plum Line.
Air traffic controllers are one of the early casualties. "Flights were delayed by up to two hours across the country on Monday, the first weekday that the nation’s air traffic control system operated with 10 percent fewer controllers. Pilots, gate agents and others were quick to blame furloughs caused by mandatory across-the-board budget cuts..." Matthew Wald and Jad Mouawad in the New York Times.
Newsflash: Cutting spending requires cutting spending. "Now, it’s true that if you ask Republicans whether they support this cut or that cut ... they’ll claim that, no, they only want to do away with waste, fraud, abuse, and foreign aid. But that’s not what their budgets say. It’s not what their rhetoric says, either. ... The real story here is simple: if you want massive spending cuts, that means massive cuts to government programs that people like. And one political party has been advocating those cuts, and even risking default of the government in order to get them. No matter what Republicans say now about the effects of those cuts." Jonathan Bernstein at the Plum Line.
Can Congress actually pass a new tax into law? "It has been labeled a tax grab and a bureaucratic nightmare by conservative anti-tax activists, an infringement on states’ rights and a federal encroachment on the almost-sacred ground of Internet commerce. Yet legislation to help states force online retailers to collect sales taxes easily cleared its first procedural hurdle on Monday evening, and even its fiercest opponents are looking to the House of Representatives for a last stand. The Senate voted 74-20 to take up the legislation for debate and amendment." Jonathan Weisman in the New York Times.
Everything you need to know about the Senate's online sales tax bill. Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.
Everything you need to know about the Senate's online sales tax bill. Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.
And Congress needs to figure out what to do to work requirements when there aren't enough jobs to go around. "'Where are the jobs?' Speaker John Boehner likes to ask. But do his fellow House Republicans really want to kick the unemployed off food stamps if they can’t find the jobs either? That’s the question behind a simmering farm bill battle over reimposing work requirements on millions of able-bodied adults enrolled in the nutrition program. Most have no reported earnings, and without added job training or workfare slots, the change could spell real hardship in today’s economy." David Rogers in Politico.
GOP
The conservative paranoid mind - connecting gun control, immigration, and Boston. "The common thread through all of this is the conservative need to instill and maintain a level of fear in the populace. They need to make gun owners fear that Dianne Feinstein and her SWAT team are going to come knocking on their doors ... They need to whip up fear of immigrants, because unless we do, it’s going to be nothing but terrorists coming through those portals ... And with regard to terrorism, they need people to live in fear of the next attack, because fear ... makes people more likely to endorse tough-guy, law-and-order, Constitution-shredding actions undertaken on their behalf." Michael Tomasky at the Daily Beast.
George W. Bush revisionism - new Bush same as the old Bush. "There are some cold hard facts that cannot be erased. George W. Bush helmed a war of choice that proved, in the end, to impose powerful constraints ... for American foreign policy. He pursued his foreign policy aims in such a way as to dramatically lower U.S. standing abroad. He was at the helm when all of the pressures that triggered the 2008 financial crisis were building up and did next to nothing to stop them. ... At worst, he was the most disastrous foreign policy president of the post-1945 era." Daniel Drezner at Foreign Policy.
Guns
The way forward on guns. "The next steps are up to the supporters of gun sanity. They can keep organizing to build on the unprecedented effort that went into this fight — or they can give up. They can challenge the senators who voted 'no,' or they can leave them believing that the 'safe' vote is always with the NRA. They can bolster senators who cast particularly courageous “yes” votes — among them, Mary Landrieu and Kay Hagan — or they can leave them hanging. The story of reform in America is that it often takes defeats to inspire a movement to build up the strength required for victory." EJ Dionne in the Washington Post.
Why do gun rights advocates have more political firepower? Social networks. "Instead of viewing gun owners and advocates simply as individuals ... we should take account of their position in social networks that facilitate collective action in favor of gun rights ... Gun owners’ social activities facilitate organizing. They are embedded in social networks of people with similar views and ... they may learn about political efforts that at least some of them are predisposed to support. ... By contrast, gun control supporters have no shared social activities, no common identity ... Under these conditions, it is not surprising to find far more effective mobilization of sentiment on the gun rights side." David Karol at the Monkey Cage.
The public health paradox: Why people don't get flu shots. "The problem is that when public health works, it is invisible. It's an insidious, persistent public relations issue that plagues public health. Nobody sees when a chain of disease transmission is broken, or when contaminated food is prevented from reaching the market, or when toxic pollutants don't enter the environment. That's the point: the goal of public health is prevention, not reaction. What's left for the general public ... is the worst sort of confirmation bias. People who did not receive the vaccine and did not get sick feel validated. Those who did receive the vaccine and didn't get sick wonder if they really needed it all." Caitlin Rivers.
Health
The public health paradox: Why people don't get flu shots. "The problem is that when public health works, it is invisible. It's an insidious, persistent public relations issue that plagues public health. Nobody sees when a chain of disease transmission is broken, or when contaminated food is prevented from reaching the market, or when toxic pollutants don't enter the environment. That's the point: the goal of public health is prevention, not reaction. What's left for the general public ... is the worst sort of confirmation bias. People who did not receive the vaccine and did not get sick feel validated. Those who did receive the vaccine and didn't get sick wonder if they really needed it all." Caitlin Rivers.
International
Global
Global governance needs improvement. "So how's the world doing? Well, let's just hope the professor is offering some extra credit assignments before the end of the semester: Climate change: D Global finance: B Nuclear nonproliferation: C Armed conflict: C+ Public health: C Terrorism: B ... All the same, that's a cumulative GPA of 2.22. I'm not sure the world can afford to skate by on a gentleman's C." Joshua Keating at Foreign Policy.
Europe
Serbia and Kosovo should be happy. "In the wake of their agreement to normalize relations, Serbia and Kosovo have received what they were seeking: progress in their respective bids for European Union membership. ... The European Commission has recommended opening EU membership talks with Serbia, following Friday's landmark deal to normalise Serbia-Kosovo ties." David Bosco at the Multilateralist."
Economics
Reinhart-Rogoff and confirmation bias. "To see their enormous influence on the European debate, it is worth quoting an extract from a speech by Olli Rehn, the European Commission’s economic chief, ... “Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have coined the ‘90 per cent rule’,” he said. “That is, countries with public debt exceeding 90 per cent of annual economic output grow more slowly. ... Policy makers, such as Mr Rehn, are always on the lookout for economic theories that seem plausible and accord with their deep beliefs." Wolfgang Munchau in the Financial Times.
Beware the carbon bubble. "Investors in carbon-intensive business could see $6 trillion wasted as policies limiting global warming stop them from exploiting their coal, oil and gas reserves, according to a report. The top 200 oil, gas and mining companies spent $674 billion last year finding and developing fossil fuel resources, according to research by the Carbon Tracker Initiative and a climate-change research unit at the London School of Economics. If this rate continues for the next decade some $6 trillion risks being wasted on 'unburnable' or stranded assets." Sally Blakewell at Bloomberg.
How economics doesn't work, courtesy of Taco Bell. "Taco Bell's Doritos Locos tacos have been a big hit product, but assertions that they're responsible for the creation of 15,000 new jobs are a textbook illustration of the difficulty in making macro-inferences from micro-phenemona: Presumably some large fraction of those sales either displaced sales at other fast food establishments or else displaced nonfood purchases. ... The impact of any particular firm's successes on overall levels of employment and output is totally ambiguous." Matthew Yglesias at Slate.
Military
I wonder how this could go badly... "An April 2013 report by the Defense Science Board says that arcane safety procedures are actually making some aspects of the way the Air Force handles its nuclear weapons more dangerous. ... The Air Force recently barred units from using the hoists due to their failure to meet technical safety specifications. The result? 'An awkward process entailing the use of a forkliftt to move the weapon into the truck and the manhandling of the 200-pound tail section,' ... a procedure 'that by any informed judgment, impose[s] far greater safety risk than that presented by the deficiency in the bolt length.'" John Reed at Killer Apps.
In awesome tech watch, a tank that can swim? "The Pentagon’s blue-sky researchers have awarded $1 million to a team of designers who they believe have built an innovative drivetrain for a Marine swimming tank. The first Darpa FANG challenge has a winner." Spencer Ackerman at the Danger Room.
Science
Score another point for modeling. "Mathematical prediction models are better than doctors at predicting the outcomes and responses of lung cancer patients to treatment, according to new research presented ... at the 2nd Forum of the European Society for Radiotherapy and Oncology." Science Daily.
Miscellaneous
Game of Thrones theme, on a bell tower. Video.
Combat juggling. “Combat or gladiator is a game played by jugglers. In its most typical form, a number of players juggle three clubs each, attempting to interfere with other players’ juggling, with the winner being the last to remain juggling three clubs — not necessarily those they started with.” Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.
If you needed another reason to hate the modeling industry. "Modeling scouts ... were gathering—in the plural, so more than one person thought this was okay—outside of Sweden’s largest eating disorder clinic. They were there to recruit anorexic girls to their agencies, because where else would you search for perilously skinny young women who are unlikely to put on weight? Anna-Maria af Sandeberg, chief doctor ... told the Metro newspaper, 'People have stood outside our clinic and tried to pick up our girls because they know they are very thin.' 'It sends the wrong signals,' she added." Katy Waldman at Slate.
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