Boston and Terrorism
6 false things you heard about the Boston bombing. "One thing we do know: Many of the initial reports on media outlets on Monday and early Tuesday have proven to be false. That's inevitable during a breaking news event—and in this case, even some law enforcement officials did more to confuse than to clarify. But one day later, here's a look at some early storylines that have fizzled upon further scrutiny." Dana Liebelson and Tim Murphy at Mother Jones.
The Saudi national is not a suspect, or a person of interest. "The Saudi national injured during the bomb attacks at the Boston Marathon Monday has been cleared and is no longer even a person of interest, intelligence officials told lawmakers Tuesday." Josh Rogin at the Cable.
Keep calm and carry on. "Terrorism, even the terrorism of radical Islamists and right-wing extremists and lone actors all put together, is not an 'existential threat' against our nation. Even the events of 9/11, as horrific as they were, didn't do existential damage to our nation. Our society is more robust than it might seem from watching the news. We need to start acting that way." Bruce Schneier in the Atlantic.
A tale of two tragedies. "The emphasis on vulnerability and the 'continuing need for heightened defenses' represents one side of an existential schism running through U.S. politics, with the dividing line separating mostly, but not always, liberals from conservatives. Many Americans accept the U.S.'s 30,000 gun deaths a year as a sad but inevitable price for all-but-unfettered individual rights to gun possession. A terrorist bombing, on the other hand, signals a need for "... the routine compromise of liberty..." Francis Wilkinson at Bloomberg News.
Eight facts about terrorism in the United States. Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.
Is terrorism the correct term to use when discussing Boston? "Terrorism is not just violence aimed at civilians. Terrorism is violence aimed at civilians with a political objective — most often, designed to cause a spectacle. The Boston Marathon attack brought violence against civilians: three are dead and over 150 injured, several critically. ... We don’t yet know whether it carried a political objective, and that’s the crucial criterion." Spencer Ackerman at the Danger Room.
Politicizing tragedy: Benghazi to Boston. "You’d hope there would be a decent interval here, but no: some conservatives are already beginning to revive their cries of Benghazi! Benghazi! in reaction to the president’s initial public handling of the Boston bombings." Ed Kilgore in the Washington Monthly.
Politics
Abortion
New abortion restrictions are in the pipeline in several states. "States seem to be going further this year. The focus now appears to be on restricting access to abortion after — or, in some cases, during — the first trimester of pregnancy. Already this year ... Arkansas's law bans abortion after 12 weeks of pregnancy, and North Dakota's ban is set at 20 weeks. Lawmakers in 14 states have introduces measures to ban abortion at some point before the fetus is viable ... including four states that have pursued restrictions similar to those passed in Arkansas and North Dakota." Sam Baker in the Hill.
The GOP
Former Bush officials are wrong - the UN isn't coming to take American guns away. "Two top Bush-era officials have joined forces ... falsely warning citizens of the strict gun laws the Obama administration will put into place via ceding to the authority of the United Nations." Hayes Brown at Think Progress.
McConnell vs Mother Jones: The McConnell tape isn't Watergate (or Nazi Germany) and may not be illegal. "Dean sums it up this way: "It appears that a conversation that was overheard and recorded in a public hallway of the building where McConnell has his reelection headquarters is not covered by the federal statute." David Corn at Mother Jones.
Guns
It's all up to the red-state Dems. "The current situation really appears to be that the fate of the proposal rests in the hands of red state Dems. It would be one thing if it were earning enough GOP support to pass without most of them ... But right now, the only Republicans supporting the bill are Toomey, John McCain, Susan Collins, and Mark Kirk. The only two Republicans who still appear gettable are Dean Heller and Kelly Ayotte. Even with a total of six Republicans, you’d still need virtually all the red state Dems to break the GOP filibuster." Greg Sargent in the Washington Post.
The GOP is fleeing from Manchin-Toomey. "From a group of 16 GOP senators gun control advocates have considered possible allies, at least nine have now said they oppose the background check compromise and one said he is leaning against it." Alan Fram at Talking Points Memo.
Senate math on background checks. "The decisions by Republican Sens. Jeff Flake (Ariz.) and Richard Burr (N.C.) to oppose the deal cut by Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) on background checks makes the path to 60 votes for the amendment very, very difficult." Chris Cilizza in the Washington Post.
Healthcare
When surgery goes wrong, hospitals profit. "A surgical complication increases a procedure’s average contribution margin by 330 percent for the privately insured and 190 percent for Medicare patients, according to a study published this week in the Journal of the American Medical Association." Sarah Kliff at Wonkblog.
Mo Congress, Mo Problems
Evidence based government may be a fairytale. "In 1988, Congress funded an effort to help young children from disadvantaged families do better in school. A few years later, the federal government tested the program, called Even Start, to see whether it was working. Researchers found no proof that it was, so President George W. Bush proposed scrapping it. The case of Even Start stands out because it is so rare. At a time when the federal budget is increasingly squeezed ... the government does very, very little to find out which programs produce the best results for the money spent on them." Jim Tankersley and Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog.
SCOTUSwatch
Torture
International
Asia
The economics of a new Korean war. "Taken together, these effects might subtract, say, half a percentage point from world GDP, or about $350 billion. Given this enormous cost, doesn't it make sense to avoid conflict? Not necessarily. ... If the cost of war is always a fixed share of the economy [and] If the global economy is expanding ... then postponing war makes it more costly. In other words, 0.5 percent of the global economy next year will be worth more to us in today's money than 0.5 percent of the global economy this year." Daniel Altman in Foreign Policy.
Economics
The Deficit
Growing the economy is a form of deficit reduction. Why can't we try that? "President Obama made an important point when he released his budget last week when he asserted that '…nothing shrinks deficits faster than a growing economy.'" Jared Bernstein.
Reinhart-Rogoff
The methodological flaws of Reinhart-Rogoff. "In a new paper, "Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff," Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash, and Robert Pollin of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst successfully replicate the results. ... three main issues stand out. ... First, Reinhart and Rogoff selectively exclude years of high debt and average growth. Second, they use a debatable method to weight the countries. Third, there also appears to be a coding error that excludes high-debt and average-growth countries. ... Without them you don't get their controversial result." Mike Konczal at the Roosevelt Institute.
Why is Reinhart-Rogoff important? "Don't know if you know the names Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff. A few years ago they wrote a book arguing that countries with a debt to GDP ratio above 90 percent experienced slow growth in recovering from a crisis. Lots of impressive data. ... R & R were really saying that stimulus spending and so forth retarded growth. As such they were constantly cited by both Republicans and centrist deficit hawks. Their influence in the last three years has been pretty enormous." Michael Tomasky in the Daily Beast.
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