Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Tuesday: 7/23/13


Health


The Affordable Care Act



The GOP's Obamacare problem.  "As the law comes online ... untold numbers of uninsured Americans will ... receive benefits through Medicaid, or ... enter the exchanges, receive subsidies, and purchase health insurance. In short order, the Affordable Care Act will have created a constituency for itself — the millions of voters who receive benefits ... It will yield countless politicians ... who will want to capitalize on this constituency by working to implement it as best as possible ... It’s Republicans who are caught in a bind. Soon, they’ll either have to accommodate the law in order to satisfy their constituents, or continue their quest for repeal, and in the process, further harm their political standing." Jamelle Bouie at the Plum Line.

The big question - will the GOP do anything to help the law get implemented?  "Here’s a question to keep an eye on when the Obamacare exchanges go live later this year: How many Republican lawmakers will take the most basic of steps ... and help their constituents benefit from — or even understand — the law? I’m not talking about whether Republicans will continue arguing against Obamacare or calling for its repeal. Those are actual policy positions ... I’m talking about whether Republican lawmakers will do the absolute minimum when it comes to making the law work for their own constituents — whether they will offer basic assistance navigating the law as it goes into effect."  Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.

Seven ways that the GOP have already attempted to sabotage the ACA.  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

The Medicaid expansion, or lack thereof.  "Of course, not all state officials are trying to make the law work. Some are doing their best to fight it—most obviously, by making sure their state Medicaid programs don’t expand to cover all poor people (rather than certain classes of them). The instant, most devastating impact of this decision is to deny health insurance coverage to some of the neediest people in the country. A new Kaiser Family Foundation report, prepared by researchers at the Urban Institute, calculates that as many as 6.4 million Americans will miss out on coverage because their states won’t expand Medicaid."  Jonathan Cohn at the New Republic.

We haven't seen the end of the 'killing Obamacare' House votes.  Not even close.  "Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) vowed Sunday to hold more House votes to thwart ObamaCare, a major priority for the GOP as the law is implemented. 'You're going to see a lot more,' Boehner told CBS's 'Face the Nation.' 'You're going to see bipartisan votes coming out of the House to derail this thing. The House has voted nearly 40 times to defund, dismantle or repeal the healthcare law, prompting frustration from Democrats who say the votes are aimed at sabotage."  Elise Viebeck at the Hill.   

Obamacare is losing the support of 'moderate Dems.' "The landmark health-reform law ... has never been very popular and always highly partisan, but a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds that a group of once loyal Democrats has been steadily turning against Obamacare: Democrats who are ideologically moderate or conservative. Just after the law was passed ... 74 percent of moderate and conservative Democrats supported the federal law making changes to the health-care system. But just 46 percent express support in the new poll, down 11 points in the past year. Liberal Democrats, by contrast, have continued to support the law at very high levels."  Scott Clement at the Fix.






Politics


Abortion


North Dakota's absurdly restrictive anti-abortion law has been blocked.  "A federal judge in North Dakota on Monday temporarily blocked the state’s law banning abortions as early as six weeks after fertilization, calling the legislation 'clearly unconstitutional.' The preliminary injunction from U.S. District Judge Daniel L. Hovland means that the nation’s most restrictive abortion law, which would bar abortions as soon as a fetal heartbeat is detectable, will not take effect Aug. 1 as planned. The ruling also suggests that, even as states across the country enact measures limiting abortion access, some of the laws may never take effect because of stiff legal challenges."  Juliet Eilperin at the Washington Post.


California





DOD


Six reasons why the military sexual assault problem is worse than you think.  Samuel Dinkle at Think Progress.


The Economy


Economists are more confident in the recovery.  "A new survey released Monday showed that economists are becoming more confident about the nation’s recovery but still expect only gradual improvement. More than 70 percent of those surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, an industry group, forecast that the economy will grow more than 2 percent over the next year. In January, only half of respondents were that optimistic."  Ylan Mui at the Washington Post.

President Obama and 'middle out' economics.  "Mr. Obama plans to elaborate on the middle-out theory in a series of speeches intended to move the national conversation ... But the middle-out idea is also an intellectual counteroffensive against the supply-side economics that has dominated conservative thinking for decades ... The grand idea behind the rhetorical flourish ... is that the hollowing out of the American middle class ... has slowed growth and created a more fragile economy ... A thriving middle class is not just a worthy goal in itself, but a path to a stronger economy."  Annie Lowrey at the New York Times.

On economic inequality - geography matters.  "Geography appears to play a major role in making ... areas where it is most difficult for lower-income households to rise into the middle class and beyond, according to a new study that other researchers are calling the most detailed portrait yet of income mobility in the United States ... Climbing the income ladder occurs less often in the Southeast and industrial Midwest ... By contrast, some of the highest rates occur in the Northeast, Great Plains and West."  David Leonhardt + Interactive Charts at the New York Times.




Elections


Obama's is losing working-class whites, but that doesn't give the GOP a winning coalition.  "Despite Obama’s monumental collapse among white working-class voters ... the GOP won’t sweep the ... voters who ... disapprove of his performance. More than half of them are self-identified Democrats—and it’s tough to imagine that most won’t return to the next Democratic nominee ... Democrats would still win ... on the strength of their resilient 'new coalition' of minorities and well-educated whites. Additional gains among white working class voters will ... be part of the next winning GOP coalition. But it’s hard to win with narrow gains ... among a single demographic group."  Nate Cohn at the New Republic.

Virginia gubernatorial race - advantage: Dems.  "The clown show of 2013 was supposed to be the swing-state Virginia gubernatorial election. Republican Ken Cuccinelli (Cuch) holds deeply conservative views, including his belief that 'homosexual acts' are wrong, while Democrat Terry McAuliffe (T-Mac) is seen as unlikable ... The question that has marked this campaign is whether it would be Cuch's extreme policy positions, which, many would argue, the GOP suffers from nationally, or T-Mac's personality deficiencies that would ultimately be too much for Virginia voters to bear. In my view, issues will trump personality, and that favors the Democrat."  Harry Enten at the Guardian.

Voter ID is wrong, but it's not an electoral game changer.  "These data leave no question about whether voter ID laws have a disparate impact on non-white voters. In that sense, Democratic fears and Republican hopes are confirmed. But the North Carolina data also suggests that voter ID laws are unlikely to flip the outcome of a national election, even if it does have an objectionable, disparate impact on non-white and Democratic-leaning voters ... It's not the apocalypse, even if it is an affront to voting rights."  Nate Cohn at the New Republic.

Bad news for Cheney.  "After announcing ... that she would be mounting a primary challenge against incumbent senator Mike Enzi ... early polls suggest Liz Cheney may have been overly optimistic about her odds of winning ... Only 33 percent of Wyoming voters have a favorable opinion of Cheney. Furthermore, the 46th vice president’s daughter trails both Senator Enzi and Representative Cynthia Lummis ... in a primary matchup. Even if Cheney were to defeat Enzi, she would face more trouble in the general election ... In the country’s third most conservative state, Cheney ought to be stunned and alarmed that a Democrat holds a viable chance of defeating her in a general election."  Allison Brito at the National Memo.




EPA


Surprise, surprise.  Except it's not a surprise.  Just bad priorities  "House Republicans on Monday unveiled plans to slash the Environmental Protection Agency’s budget by 34 percent in 2014 and block federal rules to limit carbon emissions from power plants ... The proposed $2.8 billion cut is twice as deep as the 17 percent reduction proposed last year by the House GOP and reflects a decision to cut domestic programs below sequestration levels in the coming year while adding money for the military ... In total, the bill cuts $5.5 billion, or 19 percent, from agencies under its purview. The EPA is cut deeper in order to reduce the effects on other budgets, such as that of the National Park Service."  Erik Wasson and Ben Geman at the Hill.


Filibuster Fights


The next test for whether Reid's 'nuclear option' threat actually changed anything. "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will file cloture on the controversial nomination of B. Todd Jones as the director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, told CQ Roll Call on Tuesday. The anticipated move by the Nevada Democrat — who hinted at it during a press conference earlier in the day — will immediately test the agreement reached between Democrats and Republicans last week to avoid a contentious change to the Senate’s rules governing executive branch nominations."  John Gramlich at CQ Roll Call.


Fiscal Fights


I can't make this any simpler - some GOP representatives are political extremists.  "If Obama wants to lift the debt ceiling for the rest of his term ...  all he has to do is … cut and privatize Medicare ... Republicans have generously offered the choice of letting Obama accept a package of deep cuts to Medicaid and food stamps in return for a shorter debt-ceiling extension. Of course, if he chooses that route, he’ll have to come back again later and offer up further concessions. The list is utterly deranged ... In the actual world, the economy is recovering and the deficit ... is falling like a rock. Yet messianic Republican suicide threats in the face of an imagined debt crisis have not subsided at all."  Jonathan Chait at New York Magazine.

Three things to remember for the next round of fiscal fights.  Jonathan Bernstein at the Washington Post.

Obamacare and the government shutdown.  "ObamaCare is at the center of a rapidly escalating fight that threatens to shut the government down this fall. Senate Republicans, including two members of the leadership, are coalescing around a proposal to block any government funding resolution that includes money for the implementation of the 2010 Affordable Care Act. But such a move is a nonstarter for President Obama and congressional Democrats ... In the House, 64 Republicans have signed onto a letter pressing Boehner not to bring any legislation funding ObamaCare to the floor."  Alexander Bolton at the Hill.

Sequestration and public defenders.  "The public defender system hasn't just been stripped bare by sequestration, its bones have been chiseled away as well. There has been a 9 percent reduction in the roughly $1 billion budget for federal public defender's offices, while federal defenders in more than 20 states are planning to close offices. Careers have been ended and cases have been delayed ... and yet ... money is not actually being saved. When federal public defenders aren’t able to take a case ... the job falls to private court-appointed attorneys ... Those lawyers are paid from the same pool of money as federal public defenders, but they cost much more and, according to some studies, are less effective."  Sam Stein and Ryan Reilly at the Huffington Post.

The budget strategy adopted by the House GOP is coming apart at the seams. "Like an army that’s outrun its supply line, the Republican budget strategy in Congress shows almost daily signs of coming apart. The central premise, as sold by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, was that Washington could wipe out deficits in 10 years and protect defense spending, all while embracing the lower appropriations caps dictated by sequestration. Four months later, it’s proving to be a bridge too far."  David Rogers at Politico.


Foreign Policy


The new plan for Egyptian aid.  "U.S. law bars aid to countries where there has been a military coup, but many U.S. officials want to preserve ties to Egypt's army and do not want to risk ... further upheaval ... The Senate plan would divide the aid into four blocks. It would send one-fourth ... immediately, but the next tranche would be conditioned on State Department certification that the Cairo government is supporting an 'inclusive' political process and releasing political prisoners. The rest of the aid would depend on a democratic election being held and a new government taking steps to protect the rights of women and religious minorities."  Patricia Zengerle at Reuters.

US tells Rwanda to stop supporting the M23 rebels.  "The United States on Tuesday called on Rwanda to end support for M23 rebels in neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo, saying there was evidence Rwandan military officials were involved. 'We call upon Rwanda to immediately end any support for the M23 (and) withdraw military personnel from eastern DRC,' ... the concerns followed a 'credible body of evidence' in a recent report by Human Rights Watch that said M23 rebels in Congo were to blame for executions, rapes and forcible recruitment of men and boys while receiving support from Rwanda."  Reuters.


GOP


The House GOP August recess plan.  Seriously - this exists.  "When House Republicans retreat to their districts for the August recess, they will each be armed with a detailed guide — an exceptionally detailed guide — on how to assure their already convinced constituents that Washington is broken."  Matt Fuller at Roll Call.


Guns


The growth of Mayors Against Illegal Guns.  "In its eighth year of existence, Mayors Against Illegal Guns (MAIG) has hit new heights of prominence, emerging after December’s Newtown shooting as the country’s leading gun control group ... MAIG is a self-proclaimed nemesis of the National Rifle Association ... That role has made the group more controversial, and bigger, than ever before ... At least a few of the ... mayors that make up MAIG have decided to leave the group due to political differences. But the organization is gaining new mayors far faster than losing existing ones ... MAIG now claims more than 1,000 mayors, up from 650 a year ago. It has gained about 300 since Newtown."  Dan Friedman at the New York Daily News.


Immigration


The House, the Gang of Seven, and the immigration compromise.  "The bipartisan 'gang of seven' group of House members negotiating over immigration is closing in on a plan that would include a path to citizenship, but would impose new triggers on citizenship — and new conditions on the initial legal status the undocumented would enjoy — that would put the bill significantly to the right of the Senate effort. The details on the emerging plan ... are important, because the tougher conditions it will impose could give some House Republicans a way to embrace comprehensive reform ... At the same time, it could conceivably be acceptable to some Dems and immigration advocates, too."  Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.

Maybe supporting immigration reform isn't an electoral death trap.  "There's really only one instance of a sitting Republican politician whose position on immigration was the primary factor in losing his seat ... It's well-financed groups like the Club for Growth that have proved a far greater danger to Republican incumbents than grassroots anger over immigration ... Members of Congress who weathered the last immigration fight, in 2006-07, have vivid memories of the outpouring of anger it unleashed on the right. But there's ample evidence immigration has receded as an issue for GOP voters since that time, and that the noise made by 'amnesty' opponents may not match their numbers."  Molly Ball at the Atlantic.

Divided public, divided GOP.  "Majorities of Americans support the two main pillars of immigration reform — increasing border security and a path to citizenship ... But partisan, racial and ethnic divisions damp overall public support for a comprehensive reform package ... The findings also underscore how the legislative battle ahead presents House Republicans with the prospect of satisfying the party’s base at a cost of diminishing the party’s prospects of winning future national elections."  Jon Cohen and Dan Balz at the Washington Post.

Making the GOP Latino-friendly is so much harder than it sounds.  "A recent survey from Latino Decisions tested a number of abrasive Republican comments about Latinos and immigration reform by House Republicans ... and found that two-thirds of Latino respondents figured that 'many' (as opposed to 'only a few') Republicans in Congress felt that way ... So it’s a truly Sisyphian task to 'rebrand' the Republican Party as Latino-friendly, particularly if House Republicans cannot bite the bullet and allow a majority of House members pass Latino-friendly legislation."  Ed Kilgore at the Washington Monthly.

And the KIDS Act doesn't seem to be the solution.  "Last week, House GOP leaders embraced something called the 'KIDS Act,' which is basically the renamed Republican version of the DREAM Act ... Speaker John Boehner ... and Majority Leader Eric Cantor ... may kill comprehensive immigration reform, but they're hoping this lesser bill softens the political impact. There are ... several problems. For one thing, Boehner and Cantor have already voted against a nearly identical measure, reinforcing doubts about their sincerity. For another, their bill would let children who were brought into the U.S. illegally stay, but still call for the deportation of those kids' parents."  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.


LGBT Rights


The next big same-sex marriage constitutional question.  "Looking at Ohio’s bans on recognizing same-sex couples’ out-of-state marriages ... Black — an Obama appointee to the bench — concluded, 'The purpose served by treating same-sex married couples differently than opposite-sex married couples is the same improper purpose that failed in Windsor and in Romer: ‘to impose inequality’ and to make gay citizens unequal under the law.'"  Chris Geidner at Buzzfeed.


New York





NSA


Some FISA court reforms that I would be pretty down with.  James Carr at the New York Times.

Snowden's Moscow lawyer: Snowden is planning to stay in Russia.  I suppose that's one way to avoid being tried and convicted of espionage.  "The Moscow lawyer of NSA whistleblower/leaker Edward Snowden tells Russia Today that the 30-year-old is planning to spend the foreseeable future in Russia."  Michael Kelley at Business Insider.


Virginia


The McDonnell scandal is not done.  "The scandal surrounding Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R), which has intensified in recent weeks and threatens to push him from office, took an unexpected turn today when the governor apologized for causing "embarrassment" and announced he has repaid the loans he and his wife received from Star Scientific CEO Jonnie R. Williams Sr. ... Of course, if McDonnell expects this to resolve the matter, he's going to be disappointed. After all, the scandal goes well beyond the loans, and included, among other things the extravagant shopping spree, the engraved Rolex watch, the lake house vacation, and the use of a Ferrari. There's also all the steps, of course, the governor took on Williams' behalf. In other words, the scandal is far from over."  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.



Voting Rights


SCOTUS decisions have consequences: North Carolina edition.  "This week, the North Carolina legislature will ... pass a strict new voter ID law that could disenfranchise 318,000 registered voters ... The bill has since been amended ... to include a slew of ... voter suppression measures. They include cutting a week of early voting, ending same-day registration during the early voting period and making it easier for vigilante poll-watchers to challenge eligible voters ... Until the Shelby County v. Holder decision ... this bill would have been reviewable ... by the ... Justice Department, and might not have even included some of the more egregious restrictions."  Ed Kilgore at the Washington Monthly.

No, North Carolina has never had a voter fraud problem.  It still doesn't.  "If we listen to the rhetoric from the state legislature, Republican policymakers say they're worried about voter fraud. Let's pause, then, to note (a) since 2000, there are exactly two individual incidents involving voter impersonation in North Carolina, out of several million votes cast; and (b) many of these new voting restrictions have literally nothing to do with the possibility of fraud. Let's make this plain: GOP officials in North Carolina believe the best way to ensure they keep power is to prevent more eligible voters from participating in their own democracy."  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

This seems like a decent idea. "Six House Democrats have proposed legislation that would require all states to seek permission from the federal government before reapportioning their districts, except when reapportionment happens right after a decennial census ... According to a description of the bill, it would require states with new redistricting plans prior to a new census to 'obtain a declaratory judgment or pre clearance in the manner provided under section 5 of the Voting Rights Act. That section allows preclearance through an Executive Branch process or a judicial panel under the U.S. district court in Washington, DC."  Pete Kasperowicz at the Hill.






International


Global


The age of digital diplomacy? Try the age of digital silence.  "Few if any national leaders tweet using their own thumbs. Only a third of the roughly 227 top ministers or heads of government that Burson-Marsteller profiled can say they represent themselves on social media. Of those, only 14 tweet on any kind of regular basis. If digital diplomacy were really taking off, we might expect it to help maintain relationships among world governments, or at least serve as a cheap way to engage in posturing amid international negotiations."  Brian Fung at Wonkblog.


Africa


Seven things to know about South Sudan's governance crisis.  Akshaya Kumar at the Enough Project.


Asia


Progress in Myanmar. "Myanmar's government is releasing another 73 political prisoners and more could be freed in coming months to honor a commitment made by the president during a recent trip to Europe, a member of a government body looking into the process said on Tuesday. President Thein Sein, a former general now heading a quasi-civilian government, has pushed through a series of political and economic reforms since a military government stepped aside in 2011."  Aung Hla Tun at Reuters.

Another win for Abe.  "As expected, Japan’s ruling coalition won a majority in Sunday’s Upper House election, earning majority control of both houses of parliament for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The standoff between Upper and Lower Houses that began in 2007—what became known as the 'twisted Diet'—is over."  Sheila Smith at the Council on Foreign Relations.

And another problem with Fukushima.  "Fukushima nuclear plant operator Tepco on Monday admitted for the first time that radioactive groundwater is flowing into the sea, fueling fears that marine life is being poisoned ... Earlier this month, Tokyo Electric Power Co. said groundwater samples taken at the battered plant showed that levels of cesium-134 had shot up more than 110 times in a few days. Although unable to explain the increased readings, Tepco had nevertheless maintained the toxic groundwater was likely being contained, largely by concrete foundations and steel sheets. 'But now we believe that contaminated water has flowed out to the sea,' a Tepco spokesman said Monday."  Japan Times.

Indonesia is the new upcoming hacking powerhouse.  "Internet hackers have found a new home from which to spread online mayhem ... According to a new report from cloud computing provider Akamai, Indonesia became a hotbed of hacking activity during the first quarter of 2013, rocketing to second place behind China among the most prevalent sources of Internet attacks. In the final three months of 2012, Indonesia played host to a mere .7 percent of all Internet hacking activity, but during the following three months that figure ballooned to 21 percent ... Indonesia's sudden rise in the tables is indicative of how diffuse networks of hackers around the globe can exploit weaknesses in the web."  Elias Groll at Foreign Policy


Europe


The EU adds Hezbollah's military wing to the list of terrorist organizations.  "The military wing of Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese Shiite group, was blacklisted by European Union ministers as a terrorist organization on Monday in a policy shift that reflected their concern about Hezbollah’s suspected involvement in Europe-based bombings and its growing role in the Syria war. The blacklisting designation was welcomed by the United States and Israel, which have long regarded Hezbollah as a terrorist organization."  James Kanter and Jodi Rudoren at the New York Times.

Being the royal baby of Britain isn't what it used to be.  "Face it, Royal Baby – the last 100-odd years have not been kind to the British monarchy. You guys have gone from pretty powerless to totally powerless, and the realm over which you can exercise your total lack of power has shrunk too. And the Queen gets to live on less than her predecessors did. If the next 50-odd years stay that course, be prepared to take the helm of a much-diminished royal family after a life spent being scrutinized by the British media, and without the opportunity to have a normal career or a normal, small wedding, or, really, a normal anything. Your fate is sealed. The coping begins now."  Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog.

The royal baby and the retweet network, in graphic form.  Joshua Tucker at the Monkey Cage.




Middle East


Syria is still a humanitarian crisis zone.  "Relief officials warned ... of a brewing humanitarian crisis in southern Syria as rising violence reportedly continued to strand thousands of would-be refugees along the border with Jordan. According to rebel officials and local residents, an intensified government bombing campaign is obstructing roads and paths in the region, where 10,000 displaced people are said to have spent the past week in border towns and villages waiting to cross into Jordan."  Taylor Luck at the Washington Post.

Pakistan's security threat isn't terrorism - it's water.  "In a report released ... by the Asian Development Bank ... Pakistan was pinpointed as 'one of the most water-stressed countries in the world' ... According to the ADB, Pakistan’s storage capacity, the amount of water it has on reserve in case of an emergency, is limited to a 30-day supply — far below the recommended 1,000 days for countries with similar climates ... The last several years have seen the country plagued by chronic energy scarcities ... Deficiencies of another precious natural resource, such as water, have the potential to intensify the already unstable situation in the country."  Aziz Nayani at Grist.

Jailbreak!  "Hundreds of extremists were feared to be on the run in Iraq ... after al-Qaeda’s affiliate ... launched a major assault on the infamous Abu Ghraib prison ... In Washington, U.S. officials closely monitoring the jailbreak said the number of escapees was thought to be 500 to 600, including a significant number of al-Qaeda operatives. Members of the Iraqi parliament who said they had been briefed by security officials asserted that the escapees included some top 'emirs,' or leaders, of the al-Qaeda in Iraq franchise, many of whom had been captured by U.S. troops."  Jabbar Yaseen and Liz Sly at the Washington Post.


North America


Confirmation that Keystone's opponents generally know what they're talking about.  "A new report ... finds that enforcement of environmental infractions by companies in the Alberta oil sands are 17 times lower than similar infractions reported to the United State’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ... The findings are shocking and come at a very inconvenient time for government and industry supporters of the Keystone XL pipeline project ... Of the more than 4,000 infractions reported, less than 1 percent ... received an enforcement action ... Compare this the EPA, who has an enforcement rate of 16 percent for similar infractions by companies under the Clean Water Act."  Kevin Grandia at Grist.


South America


Prices in Brazil are really high.  "Shoppers ... need to brace themselves when buying a Samsung Galaxy S4 phone: the same model that costs $615 in the United States is nearly double that in Brazil. An even bigger shock awaits parents needing a crib: the cheapest one ... costs over $440, more than six times the price of a similarly made item ... in the United States. For Brazilians seething with resentment over wasteful spending ... the high prices they must pay for just about everything ... only fuel their ire ... Economists say much of the blame for the stunningly high prices can be placed on a dysfunctional tax system that prioritizes consumption taxes, which are relatively easy to collect, over income taxes." Simon Romero at the New York Times.



Economics


Awesome game theory experiment - need I say more?  "Prisoners aren’t necessarily as calculating, self-interested, and un-trusting as you might expect, and as behavioural economists have argued for years, as mathematically interesting as Nash equilibrium might be, they don’t line up with real behaviour all that well."  Max Nisen at Business Insider.



Science


Cosmic insignificance.  "This is nothing short of stunning: Two spacecraft on nearly opposite sides of the solar system both took pictures of the Earth at nearly the same time, showing our entire planet as not much more than a smeared flash of slightly overexposed light ... Every human being who ever lived, in all of history, is contained in those images. The farthest any human being has ever traveled ... is contained in those images. The farthest ... just beyond our own Moon ... is just a few pixels in these pictures. The Earth itself is a mere pixel here. Even in the zoomed Cassini picture, the Earth is barely larger than a single pixel in size."  Phil Plait + Images at Slate.

Exoplanets are cool.  But most of them have awful weather. "Of the more than 900 exoplanets—planets outside our solar system—discovered to date, none, not a single one, appears to be a nice place to visit or live. If anything, descriptions of most of these far-flung bodies sound like a walking tour of hell. There’s the planet where glass falls from the sky, or the one where temperatures spike so quickly that they generate supersonic megastorm. These weather reports are educated guesses, of course, culled from measurements of the apparent mass, infrared output, chemical makeup, and position of each exoplanet."  Erik Sofge at Mental Floss.



Miscellaneous


The world's oldest words. "In research published by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Mark Pagel, Quentin D. Atkinson, Andreea S. Calude, and Andrew Meade attempt to identify words shared between Eurasia's major language families -- implying that they may be relics of an older common tongue ... Using a database of hypothesized ancestor words, the authors looked for words related by sound within the language groups ...  They found '188 word-meanings for which one or more proto-words had been reconstructued for at least three language families'."  Joshua Keating at War of Ideas.

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Tuesday: 7/16/13


Filibuster Fights


The executive nominees that caused the Senate fight.  Ed O'Keefe at the Fix.

10 filibuster facts that help explain how we got to this point.  Ezra Klein and Evan Soltas at Wonkblog.

The Senate didn't go nuclear today.  But the effect is practically the same.  "The Senate didn’t actually go nuclear today. But the majority took out a nuke, put it on the table, and made clear they can detonate it whenever they feel like ... Reid will change the rules if he believes it necessary. But so too will McConnell ... The result is that the minority’s ability to filibuster executive-branch nominees was weakened ... If the minority uses it too often, or chooses a nominee the majority really wants to confirm, the privilege of filibustering nominees — and that’s what it is now, a privilege granted by the majority — will be taken away. No majority is going to take that nuke off the table."  Ezra Klein at Wonkblog.

And it's an almost complete victory for the Democrats. "We seem to have a tentative deal ... (1) Cordray gets cloture, ending that nullification battle (2) The other 'regular' nominees (EPA, Labor) get cloture (3) The NLRB nominees are withdrawn, and replaced; the new nominees get cloture in time to be in place by the time they're needed for NLRB to function (4) No specific promises or commitments for the future; Reid retains the possibility of going nuclear later in the Congress if nomination obstruction continues. If that's what's happening, it's very close to a total victory for Reid and the Democrats."  Jonathan Bernstein at A Plain Blog About Politics.

Richard Cordray was confirmed as the head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.  "After two years of being caught in the middle of Washington’s partisan warfare, Richard Cordray has been confirmed to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau ... Cordray was first picked for the job in July 2011, but his nomination has been caught up in the broader battle over the 2010 Dodd-Frank law ... On Tuesday, the Senate voted 66 to 34 to confirm Cordray ... The CFPB was created to police products such as credit cards and mortgages in response to complaints that consumers were being fleeced by lenders in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis."  Kate Davidson and MJ Lee at Politico.

And President Obama has already selected the two replacement nominees for the National Labor Relations Board. "President Barack Obama will nominate Nancy Schiffer and Kent Hirozawa to the National Labor Relations Board ... As part of the deal to avoid the so-called nuclear option, Republicans agreed not to block the replacement nominees for Richard Griffin and Sharon Block ... In return for removing Obama’s recess appointees to the board, Democrats won agreement to have a functioning NLRB through 2014, including a nominee for a slot opening on the board next year."  Burgess Everett and John Bresnahan at Politico.

Despite these victories for Obama and the Democrats, GOP obstruction still reigns in the Senate. "At the end of the day, the 60-vote Senate is still the norm. The minority retains the ability to obstruct with no credible nuclear threat when it comes to most matters ... Democrats proved this week they have the leverage to make sure a president’s nominees to executive positions can be confirmed with a 51-vote majority. But ... pro-reform Democrats and progressives privately conceded that they lack the votes to scale back the minority’s veto power over judicial nominations or bills."  Sahil Kapur at Talking Points Memo.

Filibuster myths, debunked.  "With the Senate showdown on executive branch appointments—and eventually filibuster rules—moving towards the moment of truth, it’s a good time to revisit some of the myths surrounding one of the hallowed chamber’s most perplexing procedures. Here are three: 1. Filibusters ≠ Cloture Votes ... 2. Deals on Filibusters Are Not Pointless ... 3. No, the End of Filibusters Is Not a Given."  Jonathan Bernstein at the American Prospect.










Politics


Abortion


The impact of Texas's new abortion restrictions, in two maps.  Tara Culp-Ressler at Think Progress. 

Pro choice victory in North Dakota court.  "A 2011 North Dakota law that outlaws one of two drugs used in nonsurgical abortions violates the state and U.S. constitutions, a state judge ruled Monday ... East Central Judge Wickham Corwin said he'd rule in favor of the state's sole abortion clinic, calling the 2011 state law 'simply wrongheaded.' ... 'No compelling state interest justifies this infringement ...' Corwin wrote in his 58-page ruling. He already had granted an injunction preventing the law from taking effect."  James MacPherson at the Associated Press.


DOD


The Congressional fights over sexual assault and the chain of command are just getting started. "Sens. Rand Paul and Ted Cruz have joined an upstart effort to remove the chain of command from military sexual assault cases ... The tea party favorites give the bill’s lead sponsor, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, critical conservative cover as she battles the Pentagon and hawks in both parties on her proposal to create a new prosecution system for major military crimes."  Darren Samuelsohn at Politico.


Drones


Standing with Rand, once again.  "Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said Tuesday afternoon he will put a hold on James Comey’s nomination as FBI director until the agency answers questions about the use of drones for domestic surveillance ... Paul also alluded to holding another marathon filibuster, a potential replay of his 13-hour talking filibuster in March, though he didn’t confirm if he planned to do so."  Hadas Gold at Politico.


The Economy


You may have heard about the ridiculous McDonalds budget chart - problem is, it's not that ridiculous.  "So the figures for heating and health insurance in the original Visa/McDonald’s sample budget are hard to defend. But overall, it offers a reasonable picture of how a typical person in the lower half of the income spectrum spends his money. And the reality is that these low-income Americans have to make the kind of hard choices that critics are deriding as ridiculous. They have to make do with a used car, live in a modest apartment with a roommate, get by with basic cable and a low-end cellular plan, and travel and go out to eat infrequently."  Timothy Lee at Wonkblog.


Elections


Democrats probably can't win the House, but the Republicans might just throw their majority away.  "Democrats can do everything right during this 2014 election cycle, but they still don’t have much of a chance of capturing a majority due to the congressional district boundaries and recent voting patterns in ... rural and small-town-dominated districts. However, if Republicans engage in enough self-destructive behavior ... voters might just reach a breaking point. Some in the Republican Party seem intent on seeing how far they can go in alienating as many female, young, minority, and self-described moderate voting blocs as possible, despite frequent warnings ... to avoid that."  Charlie Cook at the National Journal.

Things are looking up for McAuliffe in Virginia.  "For now, McAuliffe is merely unlikable, while Cuccinelli’s cultural views, Jackson’s extremism, and McDonnell’s ethical problems raise the real possibility of widespread revulsion toward the Republican ticket. McAuliffe will have the resources to exploit the GOP’s weakness. The former Clinton fundraiser has a big financial edge, with 6 million on-hand compared to Cuccinelli’s 2.7 million. In a polarized state like Virginia, the race will probably stay close. But as the campaign gets under way and the ads turn negative, it's easy to envision McAuliffe solidifying a modest lead. At this point, you’d rather be McAuliffe."  Nate Cohn at the New Republic.

Meet Greg Abbott, the man who is almost guaranteed to be Texas's next governor.  "A week after Perry withdrew his name from the race, it’s already more or less obvious who his successor will be: Greg Abbott, Texas’s longest-serving Attorney General—he first won the post in 2002—who is so clearly his party and Perry’s handpicked favorite that even his Republican opponent has taken to calling him 'the anointed one.'"  Nora Caplan-Bricker at the New Republic.

The battle of Wyoming.  "Liz Cheney, the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, will run against Wyoming’s senior U.S. senator in next year’s Republican primary ... Her announcement is a political challenge unlike anything Wyoming has seen for years, maybe decades. Republicans in the state rarely challenge incumbents of their own party in national office ... Enzi immediately won the endorsement of colleagues in the Senate, including the National Republican Senatorial Committee. The race promises to be hard-fought. Enzi has had few serious ... challengers ... since he was first elected to the Senate in 1996 ... He handily won re-election in 2008 with more than 75 percent of the vote."  The Associated Press.

Fundraising in 2013: Winners and losers.  Aaron Blake at the Fix.




FBI





Financial Reform


I really don't get what the banks are complaining about.  "Today Goldman Sachs reported net earnings of $1.93 billion in the second quarter. Back on Friday, J.P. Morgan said its earnings soared 31 percent to $6.5 billion and Wells Fargo reported a 19 percent increase in earnings. And good for them. The only thing worse than giant banks posting giant profits is giant banks posting giant losses and provoking a system-wide panic. But this tells you a lot about how seriously you should take the past year and a half's worth of nonstop whining about overweening Dodd-Frank regulations—i.e., not seriously at all."  Matthew Yglesias at Slate.


Fiscal Fights


Get ready for another debt ceiling showdown. "Debt ceiling drama is back ... At this point, some Senate Republicans appear to be in a deal-making mood ... But House Republican leaders have been telling their members for months that the debt ceiling is where they should pick their fight with the White House ... Leadership positions in both chambers are clear. Senate Democrats say the borrowing cap needs to be lifted without any corresponding spending cuts ... House Speaker John Boehner is already saying he needs 'significant cuts in spending' to lift the debt ceiling ... From there on out, the positions quickly unravel."  Jake Sherman and Burgess Everett at Politico.

Conservatives hate spending, country suffers.  Same old, same old.  "Thanks to the Federal Reserve’s zero interest rates and quantitative easing policies, borrowing costs are near generational lows. The costs of funding the repair and renovation of America’s decaying infrastructure are as cheap as they have been since World War II. But the era of cheap credit may be nearing its end. And thanks to a dysfunctional Washington, D.C., we are on the verge of missing a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.  Barry Ritholtz at the Washington Post.


Foreign Policy


Five strategic dilemmas that govern US policy in the Middle East.  Colin Kahl at Defense One.


GOP


Can the GOP ever break its new normal?  "The best way to understand the contemporary conservative movement is as a coalition with an unusually large number of people who either don’t agree with the CV on how to win elections, don’t care about short-term political implications, or don’t care about anything other than expressing their opinion ... Mix in another significant number of people with ... interest in reactionary politics, and you have a movement that’s not going to turn from its current trajectory with any great speed."  Ed Kilgore at the Washington Monthly.

The elites and the politicians: An Arkansas case study.  "A lot of smart money is already assuming Cotton will take out Sen. Mark Pryor next year ... Cotton is spending the bulk of his time ... voicing his opposition to the Senate’s immigration bill ... So this raises a question: if Republican 'elites' indeed consider passing immigration reform ... a matter of survival for their party, why is Tom Cotton almost universally the apple of their eyes? I mean, he’s not just opposing the Senate bill ... he’s ... trying to block any conceivable course of action that could lead to ... a 'path to citizenship.' Much of what the CW holds about 'Republican elites' needs to be ... taken with a shaker of salt."  Ed Kilgore at the Washington Monthly.

The crazy party - climate science edition.  "Given the prevailing winds, anytime a Republican is willing to break with climate deniers and acknowledge global warming, it's a refreshing change of pace. But there's something unique about this piece in particular ... 'Eric Bradenson' isn't the writer's real name; it's a pseudonym. In fact, the author needed to use a nom de plume, he said, 'to protect his boss and himself.' Got that? In 2013, with the threats posed by the climate crisis intensifying, a Republican staffer on Capitol Hill is only willing to acknowledge reality if he can do so pseudonymously."  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.


Guns


Nearly half of all of the privately owned guns in the world are owned by Americans.  "In 1994, the United States was home to about 200 million privately owned guns. Today, that number has ballooned to between 270 million and 300 million. That's almost half of all privately owned guns worldwide, according to a new essay from the Brookings Institution."  Matt Berman at the National Journal.

Court victories for gun safety advocates.  "While the Travyon Martin verdict may have created a media feeding frenzy around Florida’s years-old “Stand Your Ground” law, federal courts across the country have handed down three significant decisions this month that have buoyed gun control proponents ... None of these decisions individually represent huge setbacks for opponents of gun control. But, with George Zimmerman’s acquittal and the failure of Congress to pass the Manchin-Toomey background check legislation, they do serve to rebut the prevailing narrative that gun control advocates in the United States are doomed to fail."  Ben Jacobs at the Daily Beast.


Health


Good news.  "The one-year delay in ObamaCare's employer mandate won't have much effect on the law's costs or the number of people it covers, according to a new study from the Urban Institute. The study found that the one-year delay will not result in significantly more people seeking subsidized private coverage through newly created insurance exchanges — a possibility that received immediate attention once the administration announced that it was delaying the employer mandate. In fact, according to the Urban Institute, slightly fewer people would use the exchanges if the Affordable Care Act were implemented without the employer mandate."  Sam Baker at the Hill.

The View vaccine scandal should be a bigger deal.  "Vaccines don’t cause autism. Vaccines ... prevent disease. Vaccines have wiped out a score of formerly deadly childhood diseases. Vaccine skepticism has helped to bring some of those diseases back from near extinction. Children have actually died as a result. Vaccine skepticism isn’t just some 'alternative viewpoint' ... The result has been the recurrence and spread of preventable diseases. It’s incredibly irresponsible for a broadcast television network to think Jenny McCarthy should be on television ... McCarthy is not expressing a disagreeable political position, she is spreading misinformation that has actual, tangible health risks."  Alex Pareene at Salon.


Immigration


Between a rock and a hard place. "Majorities of Americans support the two main pillars of immigration reform — increasing border security and a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. But partisan, racial and ethnic divisions damp overall public support for a comprehensive reform package, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll ... The findings also underscore how the legislative battle ahead presents House Republicans with the prospect of satisfying the party’s base at a cost of diminishing the party’s prospects of winning future national elections."  Jon Cohen and  Dan Balz at the Washington Post.

Hispanic media knows who to blame if reform goes down in flames.  "'Like it or not, the Hispanic media perceives that approving or rejecting immigration reform is in the hands of John Boehner...' That’s from Jorge Ramos, the ... anchor for Univision who has been described as the 'Walter Cronkite of Hispanic media,' ... Ramos left little doubt that Boehner and fellow House Republicans will get absolutely crucified by the Hispanic media if Republicans fail to support comprehensive reform ... By the way, there’s no dismissing Ramos’s criticism of Boehner as partisanship. He was a relentless critic of Obama during his first term for breaking ... the vow to pursue immigration reform." Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.




IRS


The author of the IRS audit is back to testify in Congress again - this is just one of the questions that he needs to answer. "Russell George, the Treasury Department inspector general who wrote the audit on IRS targeting of conservatives ... is returning to testify on Capitol Hill ... at the request of Democrats ... George will face a raft of difficult questions about a number of new revelations ... George asked his top investigator to conduct a review ... the investigator concluded the emails revealed 'no indication that pulling these selected applications was politically motivated,' a fact the investigator termed 'very important.' This was not included in George’s initial audit, Dems noted."  Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.


NSA


Snowden: Naive or liar?  "When Snowden leaked a trove of documents to the German newspaper Der Spiegel, the reporters noted something worrying: 'SPIEGEL has decided not to publish details it has seen about secret operations that could endanger the lives of NSA workers. Nor is it publishing the related internal code words' ... Snowden claims he’s not provided damaging information, while Der Spiegel says he most certainly had but they’re trying to release only what they think probably won’t be damaging. So either Snowden is either lying about the nature of the data he stole or he is dangerously naïve, since a newspaper clearly aghast at those documents nevertheless chose not to publish some."  Joshua Foust.


SCOTUSwatch


California is sending its prison problem back to the Supreme Court.  "Kennedy is in a position to decide ... whether California's overcrowded prisons must release more than 9,000 inmates by the end of this year ... Two years ago Kennedy spoke for a 5-4 majority in upholding one of the largest prison release orders in U.S. history, affirming ... the conditions amounted to cruel and unusual punishment ... But Kennedy also said that 'if significant progress is made toward remedying the ... constitutional violations,' that could 'demonstrate that further population reductions are not necessary.' ... Gov. Jerry Brown is now asking ... the high court to block a pending order ... releasing 9,600 more inmates."  David Savage at the LA Times.


Trayvon Martin


Say what you will - 'beyond a reasonable doubt' is a difficult threshold to overcome.  Full stop.  "The verdict in the George Zimmerman-Trayvon Martin case can be understood in many ways, but it reflects, at least in part, the immense power of the reasonable-doubt standard. That standard ensures that juries will have to return a verdict of not guilty even if they really believe that the defendant is guilty ... Reasonable doubt is far more difficult to meet than other legal standards, including 'preponderance of the evidence' ... 'clear and convincing evidence' ... and 'substantial evidence' ... A good defense lawyer is often able to obtain an acquittal even if most jurors ... agree with the prosecution’s account."  Cass Sunstein at Bloomberg.

Stand your ground laws are dangerous.  Really, really dangerous.  "Two recent studies find the opposite. Far from deterring homicide, SYG laws increase its incidence. Moreover, the laws have no appreciable deterrent effect on violent crime. Analyzing data from the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting system, Cheng and Hoekstra find that SYG laws lead to roughly an 8% increase in reported murders and non-negligent manslaughters. McClellan and Terkin find a similar effect on firearm homicides and firearm accidents using monthly data from the CDC ... Rather than increase the costs of violence, SYG laws decrease them by expanding the range of legal defenses available to an attacker."  Anton Strezhnev at the Causal Loop.

Guns matter.  "It is simply far less likely that a Zimmerman equivalent in a state with stricter standards on concealed-carry ... would have been armed ... The differences in state gun laws really do matter at the margins, especially in the realm of concealed carry ... This has implications for those who don’t like the thought of thousands of armed George Zimmermans roaming the land ... We’ve ended up with concealed carry now permitted in all 50 states. By all means, fulminate against racist gunmen or jurors or pundits. But then tune in with your state legislature, too."  Alec Macgillis at the New Republic.

On race and riots.  "Some folks ... have argued that the expectation of riots after the Martin/Zimmerman verdict is racist. No, it is just basic social science ... The basic idea is that when groups are sent signals that the justice system does not work, that the state is a combatant rather than an adjudicator of disputes, then domestic society starts to look a lot like international relations with arms races ... and strange alliances ... It is not racist to think that members of an ethnic group that has repeatedly faced unequal justice ... might engage in some violence in response to a disappointing verdict."  Stephen Saideman at Saideman's Semi-Spew.

Race and the police intersect in some damaging ways - but things are improving, gradually. "One in four black males between the ages of 18 and 34 say they have been treated unfairly by police within the last month. This underscores the complaints of some who are protesting the Zimmerman verdict by arguing that the case and its outcome reflect a pervasive set of discriminatory practices in U.S. law enforcement. The self-reported incidence of such complaints by blacks of all ages is, on the other hand, lower now than it has been in recent years, suggesting some positive change in this ongoing component of U.S. race relations."  Frank Newport at Gallup.





International


Global


The demographic future of the Earth, in nine charts.  Max Fisher at the Washington Post.

Ramadan and the Arctic.  "With the start of Ramadan, Muslims ... began fasting from sunrise to sunset in observance of one of the religions' primary holidays. But what happens in places where the sun never sets because the country is too far north? ... Faced with the impossibility of adhering to the sunrise/sunset rule ... Muslims must find alternative ways of determining when to fast. 'We have a fatwa,' or clerical decree ... 'We can correspond the fast to the closest Islamic country, or we can fast with Mecca.'"  Marya Hannun at the Atlantic.


Africa


Fighting in the Congo, even though the UN is staying out of it.  "Fierce fighting raged for a second day ... between Democratic Republic of Congo's army and M23 rebels near the eastern city of Goma, underlining the challenge facing a U.N. Intervention Brigade tasked with bringing peace ... The rebels alarmed the international community in November by seizing Goma, a city of 1 million people on the shore of Lake Kivu, prompting the speedy deployment of the U.N. brigade. The 3,000-strong force drawn from South Africa, Tanzania and Malawi has a tough mandate to crush armed groups and end decades of unrest in eastern Congo, but it has yet to enter combat."  Kenny Katombe at Reuters.

The dark cloud in the Arab Spring's point of democratic light.  "While Egypt's revolution devolves into chaos, Tunisia's democratic transition, which until now has been the most promising of any in the Arab world, is also in jeopardy. A bill being pushed by Islamists and their allies in National Constituent Assembly called the 'law for the protection of the revolution' seems in reality designed to protect the ruling Islamist party, Nahda, from having to face real competition in the next elections."  Joshua Muravchik at the LA Times.


Asia


UN arbitration begins on the China-Phillippines South China Sea dispute.  "A United Nations tribunal has been convened in the Netherlands to look into a complaint filed by the Philippines questioning the legality of China’s massive territorial claim in the resource-rich South China Sea ... The progress in the Philippines’s legal challenge against China comes amid increasing animosity between the two Asian neighbors due to their long-standing territorial conflict ... Recently, the conflict was reignited with tense confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels in two disputed shoals – Scarborough and Ayungin – off Manila’s western coasts."  Michaella del Callar at GMA News.


Central America


Panama seized a North Korean vessel carrying missile equipment.  "Panama's president says his country has seized a North Korean-flagged ship carrying 'undeclared military cargo'. President Ricardo Martinelli said the ship, stopped in the Panama Canal as it sailed from Cuba, contained suspected 'sophisticated missile equipment' ... Under United Nations sanctions, North Korea is banned from weapons exports and the import of all but small arms."  BBC.

Caught with their hands in the missile cookie jar.  "Defence consultancy IHS Jane’s has identified the equipment shown in the images so far released as an RSN-75 ‘Fan Song’ fire control radar for the SA-2 family of surface-to-air missiles."  Tom Phillips and Harriet Alexander at the Telegraph.


Europe


Spain's latest corruption scandal.  "Confronted by an intensifying corruption scandal, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of Spain insisted on Monday that he would not yield to 'blackmail' and resign, even as his former party treasurer reportedly acknowledged before a judge that he had made payments for years to Mr. Rajoy and other center-right politicians from a secret party slush fund."  Raphael Minder at the New York Times.


Middle East


Egypt's interim government takes shape and the Islamists are not pleased. "Interim head of state Adli Mansour, the burly judge leading the army-backed administration, swore in 33 mainly liberal and technocratic ministers ... on Tuesday. He did not include a single minister representing either of Egypt's main Islamist groups that have won five straight elections since 2011 ... Mursi's Muslim Brotherhood movement insists he be returned to power before it joins the political process. The Brotherhood rejected the interim government led by Mansour and Prime Minister Hazem el-Beblawi, a veteran liberal economist."  Ulf Laessing and Maggie Fick at Reuters.

There are a ton of terrible Egypt analogies floating around.  You should ignore them all.  "After the January 25 uprising, uninformed observers asked 'Is Turkey the ‘model’ for Egypt?' or 'Will Egypt follow Indonesia’s path?' ... The military’s July 3rd intervention has provided another opportunity to play the Egypt analogy game ... There is no way of knowing for sure what will happen in Egypt. And while comparing and contrasting cases are critical to understanding political phenomena, it is equally important to guard against facile analogy building because someone, somewhere wondered aloud if Egypt is Algeria. It’s not; it is Egypt."  Steven Cook at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Britain to send Syrian rebels protective gear to deal with chemical weapons.  "Britain is to give Syrian rebels equipment to protect themselves against chemical and biological weapons as "a matter of special urgency", saying it would allow them to potentially survive a sarin gas attack. In a written statement to parliament on Tuesday, Foreign Secretary William Hague said Britain would deliver 5,000 escape hoods, nerve-agent pre-treatment tablets and chemical weapons detector paper to the Syrian National Coalition on or after August 3 ... Britain has repeatedly said it believes forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad have made limited use of chemical weapons, something the Syrian government denies."  Reuters.

US intelligence confirms the third Israeli strike inside Syria.  "The U.S. intelligence community has determined that Israeli jets bombed a Hezbollah weapons depot containing advanced Russian weaponry inside Syria earlier this month ... The DIA used U.S. satellite imagery and other kinds of technical intelligence to determine that Israeli jets firing precision-guided munitions destroyed a Russian shipment of Yakhont anti-ship missiles, according to a U.S. official who had seen the intelligence."  Josh Rogin and Eli Lake at the Daily Beast.



Polisci


Land wars in Asia.  "The poorest, least developed, and least governed ... regions in the world are the most prone to violent conflict right? Perhaps not. 'Asia has by far the highest number of conflicts, and the longest running conflicts,' according to according to a new study of subnational conflict on the continent from the Asia Foundation. The authors ... identified 26 subnational conflicts, ranging from Kashmir to Aceh to southern Thailand, affecting 50 percent of the countries in South and Southeast Asia between 1992 and 2012 ... So what does distinguish conflict-prone areas? The main factors seem to be geographic ... 'Subnational conflicts are primarily found in remote, border regions of the country that are home to ethnic minority populations with a history of autonomous self-governance.'"  Joshua Keating at War of Ideas



Science


AI's are now as smart as four-year-olds.  Get ready.  "Artificial and natural knowledge researchers at the University of Illinois at Chicago have IQ-tested one of the best available artificial intelligence systems to see how intelligent it really is. Turns out it's about as smart as the average 4-year-old."  Science Daily.

Neptune has a new moon.  "The Hubble Space Telescope‘s keen eye has revealed a previously undetected moon orbiting Neptune. The July 1, 2013 discovery , 24 years after Voyager 2 swung by the icy-blue giant, expands the known retinue of circling moons to 14. Known only by its temporary designation —S/20044 N1—the tiny celestial piece of real estate measures no more than 12 miles (19 kilometers) across and appears to have escaped detection until now because of its extreme faintness and far flung orbit beyond the planet’s ring fragment system known as arcs."  Andrew Fakezas at National Geographic.

The science of pepper spray.  Patrick Di Justo at the New Yorker.



Miscellaneous


The stories that seem too wacky to be true.  "A 61-year-old U.S. Navy veteran from Florida woke up in a California hospital in February speaking only Swedish, with no recollection of his past life ... He'd arrived in California from Hong Kong just four days earlier, with ... four forms of identification, all of which listed him as Michael Boatwright from Dade County, Florida. Yet, when the man woke up, he insisted, in Swedish, that his name was Johan Ek ... Doctors eventually diagnosed Boatwright with Transient Global Amnesia ... a disorder characterized by 'sudden and unplanned travel,' memory loss, and the possible adoption of a new identity ... The disorder can last for several months."  Taylor Berman at Gawker.