Thursday: 6/20/13

The Economy

The Aftermath of the Recession

The rating agencies and their role in the financial crisis.  "The nation's two top ratings companies, Moody's and S&P, have for many years been shameless tools for the banks, willing to give just about anything a high rating in exchange for cash ... The financial crisis happened because AAA ratings stopped being something that had to be earned and turned into something that could be paid for ... 2008 was to the American economy what 9/11 was to national security ... If you can imagine a post-9/11 scenario where there were no metal detectors at airports and people could walk on carrying chain saws and meat cleavers, you get a rough idea of what was done to reform the ratings process."  Matt Taibbi at Rolling Stone.

So much for fixing the mortgage system.  "The federal government took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ... in 2008, and here’s what Congress has done since then ... Nothing. To make matters worse, the mortgage agencies have ... become astoundingly profitable, weakening political enthusiasm for reform even further. If the status quo continues, the consequences aren’t pretty ... The federal government ... would take a huge hit if the housing market were to collapse ... People who can’t qualify under the government’s lending parameters have a hard time finding private financing. Finally an effectively nationalized system is a terrible environment for innovation."  Lydia DePillis at Wonkblog.

Casinos

Domestic Violence

You can be fired for being a victim of domestic violence in all but six states.  "Just six, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, New York, Oregon, and Rhode Island, have laws on the books that bar employment discrimination against victims of domestic abuse or sexual assault ... State Senators in California introduced a non-discrimination bill in February, which has been referred to committee ... The Bureau of Labor Statistics has found that only about 15 percent of employers have a workplace policy that specifically addresses domestic violence ... The loss of a job thanks to abuse can end up cutting off a lifeline ... Three-quarters of women report staying with their abuser ... because of economic reasons." Bryce Covert at Think Progress.

Exports

They might be about to take a hit.  "After Fed chairman Ben Bernanke’s press conference on Wednesday, the dollar started climbing against major developed nation currencies as well – rising nearly a percent against the euro and the British pound, and around 1.5 percent against the Japanese yen. The dollar index, measuring its value against six other major currencies, rose 1 percent Wednesday and was up another 0.5 percent Thursday. If that global trend continues, it makes U.S. products – from soybeans to trucks and airplanes – more expensive overseas."  Howard Schneider at the Washington Post.

Internships

The moral problem of unpaid internships.  "Last week, a federal judge ... ruled that three unpaid internships for Fox Searchlight Pictures were in violation of the Fair Labor Standards Act ... Unfortunately, Pauley’s decision didn’t address the biggest moral objection to unpaid internships: they’re starkly inegalitarian. Wealthier kids are in a much better position to work free of charge than non-wealthy kids, especially when you take into account the burden of college debt. Giving the rich more opportunities for career advancement than the poor isn’t against the law ... But rigging career success to favor rich kids does violate most people’s innate sense of fairness."  Timothy Noah at MSNBC.

Tax Policy

Our tax system targets workers. "Imagine a society with two tax systems. One taxes the wealth people have accumulated. The other taxes the labor people perform. This society seems to be getting along well enough, raising enough tax revenue to finance the public goods and services that voters ... want to see supported. Now imagine that lawmakers have decided to cut the tax rates on wealth and raise them on labor. At the same time, the amount of wealth subject to the lower tax rates is rising as income from labor is shrinking. That society ... is asking for trouble. In real life, would any society choose to take such an unsustainable course? One already has — the United States since 1980."  Bob Lord and Sam Pizzigati at the LA Times.

Miscellaneous

People are mean to their unattractive co-workers.  "A study led by an associate management professor at Michigan State University sought to answer the Question of Our Time: are people mean to the less attractive? The study is simple. Very simple. 114 workers at one workplace ... were surveyed to find how often they felt picked on or victimized by their coworkers. Those 114 workers were photographed. Then a group of unrelated people, who had never met the workers before, ranked their attractiveness. As it turned out, the results of Hot or Not: Science-ish Edition confirmed that those workers deemed less attractive also rated their treatment at the hands of their coworkers most harshly."  Dan Nosowitz at Popular Science.

Politics

DOD

How the military is getting equipment out of Afghanistan.  Or, not out of Afghanistan.  "The U.S. military has decided that it will scrap some $7 billion in military equipment rather than incurring the costs and logistical nightmares associated with bringing it home from Afghanistan ... Military planners have determined that they will not ship back ... about 20 percent of what the U.S. military has in Afghanistan — because it is no longer needed or would be too costly to ship back home ... Much of it will continue to be shredded, cut and crushed to be sold for pennies per pound on the Afghan scrap market."  Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.

Education

Concerns about teacher performance are intertwined with race.  "A new study published by the journal American Politics Research looked at the way state legislators respond to measures of teacher quality and student achievement. The results were depressing, to say the least. The research seemed to point to legislators being highly responsive to declines in white student achievement, but they were hardly responsive at all in declines in African-American student achievement."  Kay Steiger.

Elections

A new era of polarization.  "We as a country continue to self-sort into ideological islands ... 'In 1976, only about a quarter of America’s voters lived in a county a presidential candidate won by a landslide margin. By 2004, it was nearly half.' And ... seismic demographic and cultural shifts threaten to make our tribalism permanent ... These new realities have changed the conversation about the role and size of government ... the line between individual liberty and the collective good ... the meaning of personal ... and societal responsibility ... We’re now at a point where people may not worry as much about all of America as about their slice of America ... We may be becoming a nation divided against itself."  Charles Blow at the New York Times.

Governors display the same trend.  "On taxes, gun control, abortion and a host of other issues, Democratic-controlled states are moving in entirely different directions from their Republican-led neighbors. What is unusual is that governors are often the ones leading the way. Traditionally, governors have been among the least partisan figures in big-league American politics, concentrating less on ideology than the managerial tasks of paving roads and funding schools. Today, whether fueled by their own presidential ambitions or pressured by interest groups that figure they can get more action in states than from a gridlocked Congress, governors have become more polarizing figures."  Alan Greenblatt at NPR.

Previewing 2014: gubernatorial edition.  "If you’re looking for a major difference between the last midterm election in 2010 and the one coming up in 2014, we’ve got one for you: gubernatorial incumbency — the lack of it in ’10 and the abundance of it in ’14 ... Approximately 30 of the 36 incumbents will be on the November ballot — the largest number in over a half-century ... Why does this matter? Because since 1960, about four of every five incumbent governors who made a general election ballot have in fact been reelected."  Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley at Sabato's Crystal Ball.

The 2016 invisible primary has started.  "Several ... probable contenders are already making overt moves to court activists in key states and build organizations that can transition easily to a presidential campaign. Their maneuvers are less than subtle: Sen. Rand Paul ... has already traveled to Iowa; he'll be back for a state-party fundraiser in July. Sen. Ted Cruz ... has already visited South Carolina; he'll attend the July fundraiser in Iowa with Paul. Sen. Marco Rubio ... first went to Iowa way back in November 2012 ... All three, along with other potential contenders including ... Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Sen. Rick Santorum ... have been invited to an August forum in Ames, Iowa."  Reid Wilson at the National Journal.

Energy and the Environment

Obama's climate priorities.  "President Obama will outline his plan to address climate change in 'the weeks ahead,' an effort that will focus on at least three broad areas in which the administration’s rule-making powers can have significant impact, the White House’s top adviser on energy and the environment said Wednesday ... Zichal, deputy assistant to the president for energy and climate change, ... outlined three areas that are likely to be the focus of the administration’s attention: reducing carbon emissions from power plants, improving the energy efficiency of appliances and expanding the development of clean energy on public lands."  Lenny Bernstein at the Washington Post.

Farm Bill

The House farm bill is a piece of garbage.  Seriously.  "Take a minute if you will to savor the gory details of the farm bill the U.S. House of Representatives is passing this year. It sharply cuts the SNAP program that gives money to poor people so they can buy food but preserves ample funds to subsidize American farmers. There's not a ton to be said about this, but suffice it to say that farmers have higher incomes than the average American while SNAP recipients have lower incomes than the average American. So basically instead of having the federal government redistribute income to the poor, the House farm bill will redistribute tax dollars to the wealthy. It's outrageous."  Matthew Yglesias at Slate.

Luckily, it got voted down.  Here's what was in it.  Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.

What happens if the House can't pass a farm bill?  "In theory, the country would eventually revert to the agricultural rules written back in 1949, when the last permanent farm bill was enacted (subsequent bills have all been temporary). That 1949 act was crafted for a very different United States, with smaller crop production and higher consumer prices. So, for instance, dairy prices would skyrocket once outdated price supports came back into effect. Not everything would revert, though: Other programs, such as food stamps and crop insurance, would continue indefinitely without changes, since those are permanent programs."  Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.

Spending hypocrisy.  "Unfortunately, even though congressional Republicans are looking to cut domestic spending, most of them regard agriculture subsidies as an especially meritorious program, not an especially awful one. Some of them want to cut it deeply or even do away with it, but not enough. And the main dynamic that prevents reform, and the reason the farm bill ultimately went down on the House floor today, is that the conservatives who do want to cut agriculture subsidies will only do it if they can also kick the living crap out of the poor."  Jonathan Chait at New York Magazine.

FBI

The FBI uses surveillance drones.  "The head of the Federal Bureau of Investigation acknowledged Wednesday that his agency uses drones to conduct surveillance in the United States, but said it does so rarely. Asked about drones at a Senate hearing, FBI director Robert Muellersaid the agency uses them 'in a very, very minimal way, very seldom.' Federal agencies have been using drones for years to monitor the northern and southern borders of the U.S., and those drones have occasionally been deployed to help domestic law-enforcement agencies like the FBI."  Devlin Barrett at the Wall Street Journal.

Fiscal Fights

Just because the deficit is decreasing doesn't mean big business will stop clamoring for entitlement cuts.  "If you thought that recent good news about the federal budget deficit would calm elite clamoring for cuts to Social Security and Medicare, the US Chamber of Commerce has other news for you. Today Bruce Josten, their executive VP for government affairs, delivered a speech and launched a new initiative around the urgent need to cut these programs."  Matthew Yglesias at Slate.

Guess what's taking a hit from the sequester?  "Due to a shortfall in funding, the Pentagon has been forced to forgo its usual investigations to update security clearances for contractors who work on some of the most highly classified projects in the country. As a result of sequestration, the Pentagon is implementing across-the-board, untargeted cuts of approximately $41 billion in 2013. One of the programs hit by these blunt reductions is theDefense Security Service (DSS), the section of the Defense Department (DOD) tasked with issuing security clearances to the thousands of civilian staffers and contractors who work within the Pentagon."  Hayes Brown at Think Progress.

The case for a cigarette tax, in one graphic.  Ezra Klein at Wonkblog.

GOP

What rebranding?  "What have Republicans shown the nation lately? There was a ... big fight over an anti-abortion bill that can't pass. In the states, we see a focus on culture-war issues, including state-mandated, medically-unnecessary ultrasounds. On Capitol Hill, most Republican lawmakers are running around talking about 'amnesty' and 'illegals,' ... On the horizon, many in the GOP are already planning another debt-ceiling crisis ... Party leaders hoped to apply some lessons from 2012 and move the party forward, but half-way through 2013, it's clear Republicans are moving backwards."  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

Congress is endangering the rebrand.  "If the House GOP wants to block immigration reform ... the GOP rebrand is in trouble ... There’s the well-known problem with Hispanics ... But the failure of immigration reform bodes poorly for the GOP’s 'rebrand,' even beyond the direct consequences with Hispanic voters. It suggests that Republicans are more interested in preventing the passage of legislation than improving the party's chances in national elections ... Obstruction is hurting the GOP rebrand ... The GOP’s stubborn resistance to ... background checks has added a new, losing wedge issue to the 2016 election. Now ... immigration reform threatens an opportunity to get rid of another losing issue."  Nate Cohn at the New Republic.

Don't expect any changes.  "It's as if they didn't learn a thing from the 2012 elections. Republicans are on the same suicide mission ... trying to block immigration reform ... roll back the clock on abortion rights ... and stop gay marriage ... Why can't Republicans learn? ... The real answer is the Republican base is far more entrenched, institutionally, than was the old Democratic base. And its power is concentrated in certain states -- most of the old Confederacy plus Arizona, Alaska, Indiana, and Wisconsin -- which together exert more of a choke-hold on the Republican national party machinery than the old Democrats, spread widely but thinly over many states, exerted on the Democratic Party."  Robert Reich at the Huffington Post.

The farm bill debacle shows Boehner needs Pelosi.  "This is useful ... as a reminder of the degree to which the House GOP leadership needs Democrats to get things done, given its inability to count on the support of House conservatives ... 'This underscores that Boehner cannot pass bills on his own,' ... 'He can’t do anything with only Republicans. The real power center in the House is not Boehner. It’s not Cantor. It’s not Ryan. It’s not McCarthy. It’s the extreme right. This shows the real dilemma ahead for a Speaker who is very weak and very conscious of his weakness within the party.'"  Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.

Guns

Sen. Joe Manchin vs the NRA.  "If you want to get a sense of whether the Manchin-Toomey expansion of background checks has any chance of passing the Senate ... keep an eye on the one-man war Senator Joe Manchin has launched against the NRA. The NRA had aired an ad targeting Manchin over his advocacy on behalf of expanded background checks, apparently to show that he’d pay a price for his apostasy in the deep red state of West Virginia. Manchin’s response? To hit back hard — and go straight for the NRA’s throat. If it works, Manchin could end up proving that an NRA onslaught can be survived and ... defeated, which could put some backbone in other red state Democrats going forward."  Greg Sargent + Video at the Plum Line.

Health

Good news: Obamacare premiums are lower than expected, thanks to the exchanges.  "The monthly cost of health insurance under President Obama's healthcare law is consistently coming in lower than expected. Premiums for a middle-of-the-road policy have come in below earlier estimates in all nine states that have released their initial rate information. A new analysis from Avalere Health says the lower-than-expected prices show that the central piece of the healthcare law — new insurance exchanges in each state — is working as intended."  Sam Baker at the Hill.

Bad news: A lot of people don't know about the exchanges.  "Few uninsured people have heard more than a little about ObamaCare's new health insurance marketplaces, highlighting the task facing the Obama administration ... According to a new poll, only about one in 10 uninsured people have heard 'some' or 'a lot' about the exchanges, which will begin signing up participants in October. Another third say they've heard 'only a little' about the new opportunity for healthcare coverage. Half say they've heard nothing at all ... The health insurance marketplaces are the centerpiece of the Affordable Care Act, and their success is vital to the law's mission of providing coverage to the uninsured."  Elise Viebeck at the Hill.

Idaho

This is disgusting.  "On Saturday, the Idaho Republican State Central Committee passed a resolution recommending that legislators make unenforceable ordinances that expand Idaho's existing anti-discrimination policy to protect sexual orientation."  Sven Berg at the Idaho Statesman.

Read more here: http://www.idahostatesman.com/2013/06/19/2622228/idaho-gop-seeks-to-halt-cities.html#storylink=cpy

Immigration

The ball is in the court of the House GOP.  "In the House at the moment, tomorrow is always another day. What will matter is not how many Republican votes he gets but whether a majority of his caucus quietly decides that passing immigration reform is better for the party than blocking it is. Many in such a majority might actually vote against a bill they privately want to see enacted. By doing so, they could satisfy their base voters back home while getting the immigration issue off the political agenda and ending the GOP’s cold war with Latino voters."  EJ Dionne at the Washington Post.

Strong, broad public support for immigration reform.  "A majority of Americans would vote for each of six different policy changes that Congress is considering as part of a comprehensive immigration reform bill. Support ranges from a high of 87% for a multifaceted pathway to citizenship that includes a long waiting period, taxes and a penalty, background checks, and learning English, to a low of 53% for a law that would vary the number of immigrants the U.S. lets into the country, depending on economic conditions ... Five of the six immigration policy measures receive majority support from Democrats, independents, and Republicans."  Frank Newport and Joy Wilke at Gallup.

Maine

Nominations

Call for Obama to appoint permanent IGs. "Some of the government's largest cabinet agencies, including the departments of Defense, State, Interior and Homeland Security, haven't had permanent inspectors general in place for one to five years, raising concerns ... that the Obama administration isn't sufficiently policing itself ... Some large departments haven't had permanent watchdogs in place for years ... While the departments ... have acting officials or deputies in place, some people say that a permanent leader would likely be more effective ... Sen. Tom Coburn ... and 15 other senators wrote to President Barack Obama ... to urge him to nominate people to fill the vacancies."  Jared Favole at the Wall Street Journal.

North Carolina

Bad policy.  "North Carolina's governor, hoping to resume executions in his state, on Wednesday signed the repeal of a law that has allowed death row inmates to seek a reduced sentence if they could prove racial bias affected their punishment. The Racial Justice Act, the only law of its kind in the United States, had led to four inmates getting their sentences changed to life in prison without parole after taking effect in 2009. Supporters said the historic measure addressed the state's long record of racial injustice in its capital punishment system."  Colleen Jenkins at Reuters.

President Obama

Partisanship prevents large shifts in Obama's approval rating.  "Here’s the truth about President Obama’s job approval numbers: They don’t move around all that much ... New numbers ... are remarkably unchanged ... despite the fact that the past five and a half months have seen the failure of the White House’s attempt to change gun laws, the IRS scandal, evidence of an improving economy, the NSA revelations and plenty of other 'major' news events ... And, there’s a very simple explanation ... It’s partisanship ... At least 80 percent of Republicans disapprove ... At least 80 percent of Democrats approve ... Independents are almost evenly split ... That’s true regardless of any external events."  Chris Cillizza at the Fix.

Prisons

The economics of the death penalty.  "A death penalty trial costs the state ... millions of dollars more than a non-capital trial ... It costs more to execute a criminal in the United States than to lock him up in prison for life ... Death row inmates must be held in expensive maximum security prisons ... and that the methods of execution, such as lethal injection, have been challenged in court as inhumane. But the main reason is that court cases seeking the death penalty cost more than an ordinary trial: they take more time, require the jury be more carefully vetted, necessitate more expert witnesses, and invite more appeals ... The financial costs of the death penalty are enormous."  Alex Mayyasi at Priceonomics.

SCOTUSwatch

Another ruling to help big business.  "In ... American Express v. Italian Colors Restaurant, the Supreme Court ... issued yet another decision making it easier for big corporations to ... screw over consumers and small businesses. Thursday's 5-3 decision affirmed the right of big corporations to use mandatory arbitration clauses in contracts to force small businesses to challenge monopolistic practices in private arbitration rather than ... class actions ... Justice Antonin Scalia ... boils down to this ... If a big company breaks the law and screws you, but you signed a contract with an arbitration clause giving away your right to sue or bring class action, you don't have a case, even if federal law says you do."  Stephanie Mencimer at Mother Jones.

The States

The new liberal federalism. "Historically, federalism has often meant conservative states asserting their sovereignty in the face of the federal government—most damningly, in the bad old days of Jim Crow. But that traditional understanding of state power no longer matches the country’s political reality. Think of the states advancing causes like gay marriage (12 and counting) or the legalization of marijuana (18, including those allowing medical marijuana) ... Racial and other minorities—the groups that progressives worry about most—are actually thriving at the state and local levels."  Emily Bazelon at the Atlantic.

Wisconsin

International

Global

MERS is bad.  And it's spreading.  "A mysterious new respiratory virus that originated in the Middle East ... appears more deadly than SARS ... More than 60 cases of ... MERS, including 38 deaths, have been recorded by the World Health Organization in the past year, mostly in Saudi Arabia ... Cases have continued to trickle in, and there appears to be an ongoing outbreak in Saudi Arabia. MERS cases have also been reported in Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Tunisia ... MERS appears far more lethal. Compared to SARS' 8 percent death rate, the fatality rate for MERS in the Saudi outbreak was about 65 percent."  Maria Cheng at the Associated Press.

Asia

6 reasons that Kim Jong Un is in trouble.  Sokeel Park at the Atlantic.

Europe

The first female Czech prime minister?  "The ruling Czech Civic Democrats have proposed lower house speaker Miroslava Nemcova as the next prime minister following the resignation of Petr Necas in a corruption scandal, the party said on Wednesday. The popular Nemcova, 60, would be the Central European country's first woman prime minister, but the center-right party needs the consent of coalition partners and President Milos Zeman to have her lead the cabinet."  Jan Lopatka and Jason Hovet at Reuters.

Middle East

Assad is facing currency problems.  "Even as President Bashar al-Assad of Syria is proclaiming battlefield momentum ... he appears to be facing a new threat: a rapidly weakening currency ... The Syrian pound, fell about 30 percent in value against the dollar over the weekend ... Money traders and economists said the plunge might have been accelerated by the apparent unwillingness — or inability — of Syria’s Central Bank to halt it by buying pounds with dollars or euros, suggesting the government’s supply of foreign exchange reserves is running low."  Rick Gladstone at the New York Times.

Don't hold your breath on Iranian reform.  "The upside is that Hasan Rowhani won on Friday's election because Iranian voters were intent on showing their leaders that they prefer as their president a man who suggests even the most minute revisions reigning order ... But the fact remains that, even if Rowhani wanted to implement even more far-reaching changes, Iran's current power structure gives the president minimal space to do so. Iranian voters may have signaled their desire for reform by voting for Rowhani, but that doesn't mean they're any likelier to get it."  Christian Caryl at the Democracy Lab.

Taliban power sharing?  "The Taliban have expressed their readiness to share power in Afghanistan a day after the hard-line Islamic group opened a political office in Qatar."  Radio Free Europe.

Not if they're only talking to themselves.  "A fresh effort to end Afghanistan's 12-year-old war was in limbo on Thursday after a diplomatic spat about the Taliban's new Qatar office delayed preliminary discussions between the United States and the Islamist insurgents. A meeting between U.S. officials and representatives of the Taliban had been set for Thursday in Qatar but Afghan government anger at the fanfare surrounding the opening of a Taliban office in the Gulf state threw preparations into confusion."  Amena Bakr at Reuters.

Conclusions from the Arab Spring - it's better to be a monarch.  "Despite the pining for democracy by the Muslim masses, it's comparatively safe to be a king or sultan. Royal families have survived better in this age of upheaval than secular autocrats, despite the latter's pretension to revolutionary traditions. No Arab royal family has been toppled, and most have made deft adjustments in the face of public unrest. Compare that with military dictators and security service thugs who have either been killed, driven into exile or who are fighting quite bloodily for their survival."  Robert Kaplan at Stratfor.

North America

Canada is the latest country to institute a mask ban.  "The list of oppressive countries legislating the wearing of masks keeps growing: the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and now ... Canada. Yes, Canada ... The new law, which takes effect immediately, makes it illegal to wear a mask in Canada 'during a riot or unlawful assembly.' ... Those caught wearing masks during riots could spend up to six months in jail, not including additional charges for rioting; masked miscreants caught 'inciting' a riot face a potential 10-year sentence. CBC reports that 'exceptions can be made if someone can prove they have a 'lawful excuse' for covering their face such as religious or medical reasons.'"  J. Dana Stuster at Foreign Policy.

Science

The science of why people don't believe science.  "An array of new discoveries in psychology and neuroscience has further demonstrated how our preexisting beliefs, far more than any new facts, can skew our thoughts and even color what we consider our most dispassionate and logical conclusions. This tendency toward so-called 'motivated reasoning' helps explain why we find groups so polarized over matters where the evidence is so unequivocal: climate change, vaccines, 'death panels,' the birthplace and religion of the president ... and much else. It would seem that expecting people to be convinced by the facts flies in the face of, you know, the facts."  Chris Mooney at Medium.

Miscellaneous

Google admits that brainteasers aren't useful for making hiring decisions.  "Google has admitted that the headscratching questions it once used to quiz job applicants (How many piano tuners are there in the entire world? Why are manhole covers round?) were utterly useless as a predictor of who will be a good employee. 'We found that brainteasers are a complete waste of time,' Laszlo Bock, senior vice president of people operations at Google, told the New York Times. 'They don’t predict anything. They serve primarily to make the interviewer feel smart.'"  Adam Pasick at Quartz.

Wednesday: 6/19/13

Politics

Abortion

Ohio is the next ultrasound state.  "Ohio Republicans would like to get in on state-mandated, medically unnecessary ultrasound craze. A new bill sponsored by Republican state Representative Ron Hood -- and co-sponsored by more than half the majority Republican caucus -- would require women seeking an abortion to get an ultrasound as a condition of exercising that constitutionally protected right."  Laura Conaway at Maddowblog.

Democrats

Despite decline, Democrats are still beating the Republicans in the court of public opinion.  "Americans still rate the Republican Party less favorably than the Democratic Party, 39% vs. 46%. But both parties' ratings are down from November 2012. The Democrats' rating dropped more, from 51% just after President Barack Obama won re-election. Americans' ratings of the Democratic Party are now more on par with readings earlier in 2012, while their ratings of the GOP are the lowest since May 2010."  Andrew Dugan at Gallup.  

The Economy

In favor of a $15 minimum wage. "Perhaps the most powerful and elegant antidote is ... a spike in the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour. True, that sounds like a lot ... Yet consider this: If the minimum wage had simply tracked U.S. productivity gains since 1968, it would be $21.72 an hour -- three times what it is now ... Raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour would inject about $450 billion into the economy each year. That would give more purchasing power to millions of ... Americans, and would stimulate buying, production and hiring ... That’s 81 million people ... 64 percent of the workforce, and their families who would be more able to buy cars, clothing and food from our nation’s businesses."  Nick Hanauer at Bloomberg.

The benefits and drawbacks of the Texas economic model.  "Perry’s ad pitches business owners on a low-tax environment free of 'overregulation.' That’s certainly true. If you want the freedom to buy gigantic non-diet sodas in a single cup, a notorious regulation Perry’s ad prominently mocks, you don’t want to live in New York. Of course, Texas’s lax regulatory environment has other features, like exploding fertilizer plants located next to schools, the appeal of which will greatly vary depending on your desire to open an unsafe fertilizer plant versus your desire to not die in a fertilizer explosion."  Jonathan Chait at New York Magazine.

Bailouts ... for casinos?  "Earlier this week, Delaware’s casinos got a surprise windfall ... Gov. Jack Markell (D) proposed that $8 million of the state’s budget surplus be distributed amongst its three struggling establishments, to forestall the layoffs that at least one of them had threatened. That would seem to defeat the purpose of casinos: Generating revenue for states. The problem is, for the past decade ... gamblers aren’t keeping up ... There’s ... diminishing overall utility to state governments as markets near their saturation points. But ... Delaware, which derives eight percent of its budget from gambling revenue, feels it can’t afford to let neighboring states drink its proverbial milkshake entirely."  Lydia DePillis at Wonkblog.

The Fed is terrible at predicting the future - in graphs.  Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog.

Bank of America, the housing crisis, and new evidence of wrongdoing. "Bank of America’s mortgage servicing unit systematically lied to homeowners, fraudulently denied loan modifications, and paid their staff bonuses for deliberately pushing people into foreclosure: Yes, these allegations were suspected by any homeowner who ever had to deal with the bank to try to get a loan modification – but now they come from six former employees and one contractor, whose sworn statements were added last week to a civil lawsuit filed in federal court in Massachusetts."  David Dayen at Salon.

Elections

Independents are generally not who they claim to be.  "The three myths [about independents] are: 1) Independents are the largest partisan group. 2) Independents are actually independent. 3) Change in the opinions of independents is always consequential ... Our political behavior ... demonstrates considerably partisan behavior -- most of us, most of the time, do in fact for party, not candidate."  Jonathan Bernstein at A Plain Blog About Politics.

Energy and the Environment

The newest effort to quantify the social cost of carbon.  "The Obama administration is making a second attempt to systematically account for the dollar damage from greenhouse gas pollution ... The new effort is an update to an estimate for the ... 'Social Cost of Carbon,' a range of costs ... that carbon dioxide emissions are thought to impose on future generations. When the government totes up costs and benefits for ... proposed regulations, the Social Cost of Carbon is plugged into the calculation ... The new price, used for the first time last month in establishing a standard for energy efficiency in new microwave ovens, is 50 percent to 100 percent higher per ton than the one developed in 2010."  Matthew Wald at the New York Times.

Farm Bill

FBI

Foreign Policy

A thematic guide to Obama's Berlin speech.  Elias Groll at Foreign Policy.

Human trafficking leads to State Department sanctions on China, Russia.  "The State Department on Wednesday declared China and Russia among the worst offending countries on human trafficking, a designation that will lead to sanctions against both countries. With the release of the State Department’s 2013 report on Trafficking in Persons ... the State Department officially downgraded China, Russia, and Uzbekistan to the lowest possible rating ... along with Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Sudan, and Zimbabwe ... The new designations require the State Department to prepare a package of sanctions for China and Russia."  Josh Rogin at the Daily Beast.

GOP

The clown car drives on. "They’ve waxed philosophic about 'legitimate rape,' reflected on the economic role of 'wetbacks' and denounced the actions of 'brazen, self-described illegal aliens.' They’ve lamented that 'mom got in the workplace' and called out the United States attorney general for casting 'aspersions on my asparagus.' Call them the clueless caucus of the Republican Party. As ... the GOP strains to implement a post-2012 course correction, the party has found itself stymied over and over by ... a tiny rump of ham-fisted pols with a knack for stumbling onto cable news ... Another Republican lawmaker was blunter ... 'These are the same people who try to drive a wagon with a square wheel.'"  Alexander Burns and Jake Sherman at Politico.

Guns

Now, I'm no NRA fan - but this sort of thing is ridiculous.  "A teenage boy in West Virginia finds himself facing criminal charges that include jail time ... because he wore a t-shirt supportive of the National Rifle Association to school ... It was the image of a gun printed on Jared’s t-shirt that ... ended with Jared suspended, arrested and facing two charges, obstruction and disturbing the education process ... Turning this into a criminal case strikes me as incredibly over the top ... The-shirt that Marcum was wearing didn’t actually violate the school’s dress code ... Getting the police involved ... seems like both an abuse of that authority and an over-reaction. "  Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.

Health

The ACA exchanges are falling behind schedule.  "Government officials have missed several deadlines in setting up new health-insurance exchanges for small businesses and consumers—a key part of the federal health overhaul—and there is a risk they won't be ready to open on time in October, Congress's watchdog arm said. The Government Accountability Office said federal and state health officials still have major work to complete, offering its most cautious comments to date about the Obama administration's ability to bring the centerpiece of its signature law to fruition."  Louise Radnofsky and Sarah Needleman at the Wall Street Journal.

Democrats like health reform better when it's called 'Obamacare.'  Everyone else, not so much.  "Support for the health law among Democrats jumps dramatically when labeled 'Obamacare,' vs. the plain old 'health reform law' ... Favorability of the law jumps from 35 percent to 42 percent when the term 'Obamacare' is used. That’s almost entirely due to the enthusiastic reception it gets from Democrats ... Independents in the poll reacted about the same to both descriptors ... Among Republicans, 76 percent responded unfavorably to 'the health reform law.' That number jumped to 86 percent when 'Obamacare' was used."  Sandhya Somashekar at Wonkblog.

Hey, vaccine skeptics, take a hike.  "The prevalence of dangerous strains of the human papillomavirus — the most common sexually transmitted infection in the United States and a principal cause of cervical cancer — has dropped by half among teenage girls ... a striking measure of success for a vaccine against the virus ... There are about 12,000 cases of cervical cancer and 4,000 deaths ... in the United States. At current vaccination rates, the vaccine would prevent 45,000 cases of cervical cancer and 14,000 deaths among girls now age 13 and younger ... according to C.D.C. estimates. Increasing the rate to 80 percent could prevent an additional 53,000 cancers and nearly 17,000 deaths."  Sabrina Tavernise + Video at the New York Times.

Immigration

The short and long term collide for House GOP.  "One of our two major parties ... is on the cusp of having to weigh what is good for its congressional wing in the short term versus what is good for its aspirations to reclaim the presidency over the long term ... The vast majority of individual GOP House members ... know that voting for immigration reform with said path [to citizenship] is risky for them politically ... And thus we have it: something that would obviously be good for their party in the long run, supporting reform so that they can start the process of appealing to Latino voters, is dangerous in the short run."  Michael Tomasky at the Daily Beast.

The CBO kills the economic case against reform.  "According to the Congressional Budget Office, the Senate immigration bill grows the economy, cuts deficits, raises wages ... makes the American workforce more productive, and adds more than 10 million workers to an aging economy ... Few critics of immigration reform really base their opposition on concerns about the ... economy. Their real concern ... is cultural and sociological. But that’s dangerous political ground ... That’s the real damage the CBO did to the anti-immigration caucus. It took the bloodless language of the budget away from them. It left them only with their real concerns — the ones they’d prefer not to emphasize."  Ezra Klein and Evan Soltas at Wonkblog.

Boehner seems to be adhering to the Hastert Rule.  Maybe  "The fate of the sprawling immigration reform proposal winding its way through Congress may now be in the hands of some of the most conservative members of the Republican Party. House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) said Tuesday that he will not advance any bill that did not have the support of a majority of the House GOP ... Despite his closed-door comments, Boehner didn’t rule out relying on Democrats to pass a final version of immigration legislation that could be negotiated between the House and the Senate in the coming weeks."  Ed O'Keefe at the Washington Post.

An attempt to explain Boehner's 'leadership' on immigration.  "His policy and political instincts are generally quite sound ... The Speaker didn't want to hold 38 floor votes to repeal the Affordable Care Act, didn't want to ... hold the debt-ceiling hostage, didn't want to reject President Obama's 'Grand Bargain' offer, and doesn't want to kill immigration reform. But whatever the merits of Boehner's instincts, he's simply too weak to follow them. The Speaker isn't a right-wing ideologue ... But now that he leads a radicalized caucus, Boehner seems to have determined that the only way to keep power ... is to allow himself to be pushed around."  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

The Gang of Eight bill would be DOA in the House.  "Most House Republicans don’t care. They view the Senate ... with intense distrust ... Recently, they were forced to pass the Senate’s fiscal cliff deal, which raised taxes on the rich. Gerrymandering means the political realities of 2012 haven’t caught up with House members. The Senate is operating in a different political environment ... Conversations throughout the House Republican Conference ... lay bare a reality diametrically different from the conventional wisdom that’s led people to believe that the Senate bill could pass muster in the House."  Jake Sherman and Seung Min Kim at Politico.

IRS

Finally, a constructive response to the IRS 'scandal.' "Rep. Chris Van Hollen ... said Tuesday that he and two campaign finance watchdog groups would sue the IRS, challenging regulations that allow nonprofit groups to be involved in politics if they're 'primarily' devoted to a social welfare purpose ... that he said was at odds with the law, which requires certain groups to 'exclusively' engage in social welfare to earn nonprofit status. The IRS regulation permitting groups 'primarily' engaged in social welfare allows the organizations to participate in an undefined amount of political activity."  Paul Blumenthal at the Huffington Post.

LGBT Rights

Lisa Murkowski becomes the third Republican Senator to endorse same-sex marriage.  "Following in the footsteps of Ohio’s Mark Portman and Illinois Mark Kirk, Lisa Murkowski has become the third Republican Senator to endorse same-sex marriage ... Murkowski had previously said her views on same-sex marriage were 'evolving,' using the language President Barack Obama had once used to describe his own views before endorsing marriage rights. She had been one of the few Republicans to support the repeal of 'Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.'"  Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.

But don't expect a whole wave of GOP support.  "This morning, Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski became the latest Republican to endorse same-sex marriage. Murkowski’s shift aligns with that of the country as a whole. But it does not align with that of the GOP as a whole ... Social conservatives are a large and important element of the GOP coalition. A handful of Republican lawmakers can safely endorse same-sex marriage. But there’s no space — at all — for a broad shift. Republicans need fierce support from social conservatives, and in the short term, that means broad opposition to marriage equality."  Jamelle Bouie at the Plum Line.

New study finds significant same-sex bias in housing markets.  "A new study released Tuesday by the Department of Housing and Urban Development found that same-sex couples were treated less favorably than heterosexual couples in the online rental housing market ... The department studied 50 metropolitan markets from June to October 2011 and concluded that same-sex couples were 'significantly less likely than heterosexual couples to get favorable responses to e-mail inquiries about electronically advertised rental housing.' More specifically, 'heterosexual couples were favored over gay male couples in 15.9% of tests and over lesbian couples in 15.6% of tests.'"  Clare Kim at MSNBC.

NSA

The NSA programs are not the Orwellian state you're looking for.  "The information leaked by Snowden should cause alarm as should the loose legal oversight governing the NSA’s massive data-mining campaign. Nevertheless, the invocations of Orwell are not unlike ... the Tea Party’s frequent panting that Obama is indistinguishable from Fidel Castro. A few points of similarity ... do not establish the literary analogy. The rule here is simple: If you are invoking 1984 in a country in which 1984 is available for purchase and can be freely deployed as a rhetorical device, you likely don’t understand the point of 1984."  Michael Moynihan at Newsweek.

President Obama

The country is more satisfied with the president than the direction of the US.  "President Barack Obama's job approval rating thus far in 2013 has averaged 24 percentage points higher than Americans' satisfaction with the direction in which the country is going. This gap is typical for the Obama presidency, but represents a much greater presidential job approval premium than most other presidents since Ronald Reagan have enjoyed ... Since the start of his presidency in 2009, Obama's average job approval rating has been running 26 points higher than Americans' average level of satisfaction with the nation, and has ranged from 22 to 30 points higher each year."  Lydia Saad at Gallup.

Prisons

Good news. "The U.S. incarceration rate for youths has actually dropped 32 percent over the past decade, according to a new report ... from the National Juvenile Justice Network and Texas Public Policy Foundation. And there’s good reason to think the numbers can keep falling. Some of the drop has been driven by the general decline in crime and arrests across the country ... Importantly, another chunk of the drop is due to the fact that nine states ... have been experimenting with new policies to keep kids who commit minor offenses out of jail. These nine states have all seen an even bigger drop in their youth confinement rates since 2000."  Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.

War on Drugs

International

Global

Internet censorship isn't just for dictators anymore. "It's no longer entirely accurate or useful to associate internet censorships solely with authoritarian regimes ... Censorship functions identically when America redirects access ... to domain names about Cuban culture or hip hop music and when Vietnam redirects ones about political minorities. While one can distinguish between the legitimacy of the actions of these two states, both countries plainly censor the Internet ... We're entering a period where the debate is not so much about whether the Internet can or should be censored, but when censorship is appropriate and who will have authority to do it."  Joshua Keating at War of Ideas.

Europe

Families of those killed in Iraq can sue the UK, Supreme Court rules.  "Families of soldiers killed in Iraq can pursue damages against the government, the Supreme Court has ruled. Legal action was brought by relatives of three men killed by roadside bombs while in Snatch Land Rovers and another killed while in a Challenger tank. The judges ruled the families could make damages claims under human rights legislation and sue for negligence."  BBC.

Middle East

Syrian rebels have 'heavy weapons' at Aleppo.  "Rebel sources said Russian-made 'Konkurs' anti-tank missiles had been supplied by America’s key Gulf ally, Saudi Arabia. They have already been used to destructive effect and may have held up a promised regime assault on Aleppo. A handful of the missiles were already in use and in high demand after opposition forces looted them from captured regime bases. More have now arrived, confirming reports that the White House has lifted an unofficial embargo on its Gulf allies sending heavy weapons to the rebels."  Richard Spencer and Kafra Hamra at the Telegraph.

Syrian spillover.  "Violent sectarian spillover from the Syrian conflict reached across southern Lebanon on Tuesday, with armed clashes by rival groups of Sunni and Shiite militia members in the Mediterranean port of Sidon that left at least two people dead and forced the Lebanese Army to seal off the area ... The Sidon tensions underscored the fragility of Lebanon’s patchwork of sects, which has further weakened because of the conflict in Syria, raising the risk of destabilizing the country and the broader Middle East."  Hania Mourtada and Rick Gladstone at the New York Times.

Record numbers of refugees as a result of the Syrian conflict.  "The Syrian civil war contributed to pushing the numbers of refugees and those displaced by conflict within their own nation to an 18-year high of 45.2 million worldwide by the end of 2012, the U.N. refugee agency said Wednesday. Those are the highest numbers since 1994, when people fled genocide in Rwanda and bloodshed in former Yugoslavia."  John Heilprin at the Associated Press.

Turkey arrests dozens in a new crackdown.  "The Turkish authorities arrested dozens of people in several cities early on Tuesday as part of a determined and intensifying effort to stamp out weeks of antigovernment protests ... Turkey’s Interior Ministry said more than 70 people had been detained in the sweeps in Istanbul and Ankara on Tuesday. The semiofficial state news agency said those detained were alleged to be 'members of terror organizations who destroyed public property, incited the public and attacked the police.'"  Kareem Fahim and Sebnem Arsu at the New York Times.

North America

Morris is the best new politician in the world.  And he's a cat.  "It started as a joke between friends, but Morris the cat's bid to become mayor of the Mexican city of Xalapa, the capital of the state of Veracruz, has now turned into a social media phenomenon with a serious message about political disenchantment ... The Facebook page for the Candigato (gato means cat in Spanish) now has more than 130,000 "likes" – far more than those accrued by any of the candidates registered to stand in the Xalapa election, and more too than those of Veracruz's current governor. Mexico will hold local elections in around half of the country on 7 July."  Jo Tuckman at the Guardian.

South America

Extradition.  "The Chilean Supreme Court has approved the extradition of a former Argentine judge accused of human rights abuses during the 1976-1983 military rule. Otilio Romano has been accused in Argentina of complicity in forced disappearances, torture and illegal raids while serving as a state prosecutor in the city of Mendoza. He fled to Chile when the allegations emerged two years ago."  BBC.

Brazil deploys police to control riots.  "Brazil's government says it will deploy a national security force to five major cities after a wave of protests which has seen almost a quarter of a million people demand better public services. The national force will be sent to Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, Fortaleza and the capital, Brasilia. All of the cities are hosting games in Fifa's Confederations Cup. The announcement comes after riot police and protesters clashed in fresh protests on Tuesday in Sao Paulo."  BBC.

Economics

Sometimes, government intervention really is more effective than 'free markets.'  "Many people on the political right believe that free markets are the solution to most any problem ... ​Free, unregulated markets are not always the answer, however. It’s true that competitive markets have desirable properties, but very special conditions must be present for competitive markets to emerge. When these conditions are not met, as is often the case in the real world, free markets can perform very poorly. In these cases ... government intervention that eliminates troublesome 'market freedoms' can often be used to move these markets closer to the competitive ideal."  Mark Thoma at the Fiscal Times.

Science

This is neat.  "3D printing can now be used to print lithium-ion microbatteries the size of a grain of sand. The printed microbatteries could supply electricity to tiny devices in fields from medicine to communications, including many that have lingered on lab benches for lack of a battery small enough to fit the device, yet provide enough stored energy to power them."  Dan Ferber + Video at the Wyss Institute.

Miscellaneous

Flopping, basketball, and game theory.  "No one likes flopping, but it is not going away anytime soon ... The logic is as you might think–players flop to dupe officials into mistakenly calling fouls. There is a surprising result, however. When flopping optimally, 'good' officiating becomes impossible–referees are completely helpless in deciding whether to call a foul. Worse for the integrity of the game, a flopper’s actions force referees to occasionally ignore legitimate fouls."  William Spaniel.

The Captain Crunch scandal.  "A new scandal is consuming the U.S. Navy and one of the world’s most venerated captains:Cap’n Crunch. The legendary cereal icon’s status as a captain has come under fire after eagle-eyed writers noticed that Cap’n Crunch only wears the bars of a Navy commander, not those of a captain. In the U.S. Navy, captains wear four bars on their uniforms, while commanders — one rank below captain – have three bars."  Dion Nessenbaum at the Wall Street Journal.

Tuesday: 6/18/13

Immigration

The Overview

Why both parties want immigration reform.  "While politics is zero-sum competition, policy isn’t ... The Democratic Party’s long-term prospects matter less to Obama than burnishing his legacy and resolving a knotty problem in American life ... Now, if a bill passes, the credit will surely be shared, and Democrats will probably get the bigger half, since their guy is the one who gets to sign the bill ... It’s conceivable that a successful bill could strengthen ... the Democrats’ standing in the Latino community. But Republicans have to do something to rehabilitate their standing with Latino voters, or they’re sunk. And ... comprehensive immigration reform is the straightest shot Republicans have."  Jonathan Chait at New York Magazine.

A guide to immigration reform and federal benefits.  Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog.

Immigration reform smacks into fights from the healthcare battles of 2009. "The Congressional Hispanic Caucus was emphatic that illegal immigrants should be included when the landmark health care bill was being negotiated in 2009. But the White House and Democratic leaders said it was not the right time and health care would be taken care of when immigration was overhauled. Now ... Hispanic lawmakers are again being told that now is not the time. Barring a dramatic change of course, neither the bipartisan Senate bill nor a bipartisan House measure that’s now being crafted would help millions of uninsured, illegal immigrants get health insurance."  Dena Bunis at Roll Call.

The fiscal benefits.  "The CBO’s score of the Gang of Eight immigration reform bill is out and it’s very positive. While the bill increases spending by $262 billion over 10 years, it increases revenue by $459 billion, for a deficit reduction of $197 billion in total. Additionally, it projects $690 billion in deficit reduction in the second decade of implementation, from 2024 to 2033."  Ezra Klein at Wonkblog.

The House

It all rides on Boehner.  "Which is why, ultimately, the question that really matters is WWJBD? What will John Boehner do? ... The question then is whether Boehner is open to bringing that legislation to the House floor even if a majority of House Republicans don’t want to vote for it. Anonymous sources tell the Washington Examiner that Boehner would never do such a thing, but the speaker himself has been more equivocal in public, and the truth is he probably doesn’t know what he will or won’t do this far in advance — it’ll depend on how the politics look, and how his members feel, in the endgame. But that’s the question that most in the Senate and in the House think really matters."  Evan Soltas at Wonkblog.

On immigration and the Hastert rule.  Ezra Klein at Wonkblog.

Conservatives in the House are scared that Boehner won't take their side. "Rep. Dana Rohrabacher ... warned Speaker John Boehner ... would face a conference revolt that could threaten his Speakership if he allows a House vote on the immigration bill presently being debated in the Senate. Conservatives have been pressuring Boehner to adhere to the unwritten 'Hastert Rule' ... that says no bill should come to the House floor unless it has the backing of a majority of a chamber's majority party. Rohrabacher said if Boehner moves forward with a vote on immigration reform without a Republican majority, it would be a 'betrayal' of his party."  Jonathan Easley at the Hill.

So the leadership has to get the members on their side.  "Republicans on and off the Hill say Boehner ... Eric Cantor, and ... Kevin McCarthy all want to do something on immigration ... So House leaders have been meeting privately with members, making the case that inaction on immigration will be more costly than doing something. Weeks into the debate, it remains a hard sell among reform opponents, particularly members who do not want to offer citizenship ... It’s a hard argument to win."  Chris Frates at the National Journal.

Which means House Republicans have to be able to vote against the bill, while still wanting it to pass.  "The truth is that it’s fairly hard to see any majority for action on immigration in the House except for a mostly-Democrats bill similar to what the Senate is doing ... If something is going to pass, it will have to be over the votes of most House Republicans — but that it will only happen if some of them want a bill as long as they don’t have to vote for it."  Jonathan Bernstein at the Washington Post.

The Senate

Dems in the Senate still can't agree on how many votes they need.  "The 70-vote strategy has splintered Senate Democratic leaders, with Durbin and Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) seeking to focus on securing 60 votes — enough to defeat a GOP filibuster — and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), a leader of the Gang of Eight, pushing for a vote tally north of 70. Durbin and Reid fear the bill will be yanked too far to the right to run up the vote total. But Schumer — as well as other Gang members like Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) – want overwhelming passage in the Senate to enact more pressure on the GOP-led House on immigration reform."  Seung Min Kim + Video at Politico.

Rubio's incentive to sabotage the bill.  "If Rubio does want to run for president ... with the intensely nativist GOP caucus-goers of Iowa, it’s hard to imagine that signing-ceremony moment with Barack Obama serving as anything other than his political death warrant ... John McCain himself might have never survived his championship of immigration reform when he ran for president in 2008 had the 2007 bill actually been signed into law by George W. Bush. Substituting “Obama” for “Bush” in the equation makes the peril involved immensely larger, and thus makes Rubio a likely subversive in the final stages of the current legislation."  Ed Kilgore at the Washington Monthly.

Elections

2014

Usually open House seats end in close races.  Maybe not in 2014.  "Open seats are supposed to be opportunities. Without longtime incumbents on the ballot, these districts should be easier to takeover. But six months into the 2014 cycle, that just isn’t the case on the House side. So far, there are 10 districts slated to be open seats because the member is running for higher office or retiring in 2014. Either President Barack Obama or Mitt Romney won all of them with at least 55 percent last year."  Nathan Gonzales at the Rothenberg Political Report.

Senate math looks good for Republicans in 2014.  But they still have problems to overcome.  "All of these mathematical opportunities for Republicans are just theoretical unless the GOP recruits and nominates good candidates, a problem that plagued the party the 2010 and 2012 cycles, and begins to cut into its lack of support among minority, younger, female, and moderate voters. In 2010, a great Republican year, the GOP lost five of the seven Senate seats The Cook Political Report rated as Toss-Ups ... and also lost eight of the 10 Toss-Ups in 2012—providing a sobering counterpoint to the argument of extensive Democratic exposure."  Charlie Cook at the National Journal.

2014 - Alaska

Alaska Lt. Governor to challenge Sen. Begich.  "The Republican Lt. Governor of Alaska has thrown his hat into the ring and will challenge Senator Mark Begich in 2014 ... Treadwell begins the race as perhaps the favorite to face Begich in the general election, though he is expected to face primary opposition ... The question will be how he’ll fare against a Tea Party favorite like Miller, who managed to beat incumbent Lisa Murkowski in the GOP Primary in 2010 before ultimately losing to her write-in bid in the General Election. Assuming Miller actually does run, this will be an interesting primary race to watch."  Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.

2014 - Florida

Current Republican Gov. Rick Scott trailing former Republican-turned-Democrat Gov. Charlie Crist in Florida polling.  "Of the Republican elected Governor in the GOP wave election of 2010, Florida’s Rick Scott has been among the most vulnerable thanks in no small part to a number of unpopular decisions on his part and the prospect that former Governor Charlie Crist will end up running against him in 2014. According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Scott’s numbers have improved somewhat but he continues to trail his predecessor by double digits."  Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.

2016

The NSA revelations are creating divisions in the Democratic party and new complications for presidential contenders.  "Revelations about the Obama administration’s expansive domestic surveillance programs have opened a chasm between Democratic elected officials and their progressive base — one that could be tricky for the party’s future presidential hopefuls to bridge. Have Democratic voters become more accepting of surveillance tactics after blasting them during the Bush administration? Or could this become the 2016 version of the 2008 Democratic Party brawl over who voted for the Iraq War? ... It is too soon to say."  Maggie Haberman at Politico.

Rubio is putting himself in a good position.  "Rubio's push on immigration reform is going to get him some insider credit ... Most donors like Rubio's new role. He's also bound to win plaudits from the GOP establishment in the Senate ... Overall, this is definitely the correct move for a person who might otherwise be seen as too 'outsidery' ... Immigration reform has the additional advantage of being seen as a moderating force ... At the same time, Rubio can point to other issues where he is an outsider conservative, such as the debt ceiling. Rubio is proving, perhaps, that he knows how to balance the wings of his party correctly."  Harry Enten at the Guardian.

Rick 'Oops' Perry is back.  "His latest decisions—including a string of more than two dozen vetoes—seems to only further confirm what most Texas insiders have been saying for months: Perry is paving the way for a second act and a second bid for the White House. And he’s not moving toward the center. The series of votoes has placed him clearly on the right and in a position to play to a national audience."  Abby Rapoport at the American Prospect.

Miscellaneous

Colorado's recall elections are part of a broader trend of partisanship.  "Several state legislators in Colorado are currently facing the threat of a recall election. This is happening not because of any alleged criminal or immoral activity on their parts ... Rather, it’s because they voted for several gun control restrictions earlier this year, and that made gun rights activists mad ... If you’re thinking that recall elections have become more commonplace lately, you’re entirely right ... The recall ... is one of those rarely-used political tools that suddenly becomes commonplace during a period of intense partisanship."  Seth Masket at Pacific Standard Magazine.

SCOTUSwatch

Affirmative Action

Why America still needs affirmative action.  "In a merit-based system, family ties shouldn’t matter ... But ... Americans tend to follow the earnings paths of their parents ... For folks who start out in the cellar of U.S. society, even climbing up to the parlor level is quite a feat, and one that, these days, often demands a college education. That is why the Texas case is so important ... Schools in poor areas tend to be worse than their counterparts in rich areas, and that, in general, their students get lower test scores. Here was a way to address that reality, while, at the same time, rewarding merit, ambition, and hard work."  John Cassidy at the New Yorker.

Big Pharma

Good news on pharmaceuticals.  "Pharmaceutical companies that pay rivals to keep less-expensive generic versions of best-selling drugs off the market can expect greater federal scrutiny after a Supreme Court ruling on Monday. In a 5-to-3 vote, the justices effectively said that the Federal Trade Commission can sue pharmaceutical companies for potential antitrust violations, a decision that is likely to increase the number of generic drugs in the marketplace and benefit consumers."  Edward Wyatt at the New York Times.

Fifth Amendment

A bad decision on the Fifth Amendment.  "The court ruled that a suspect’s failure to answer a police officer’s questions before an arrest may be used against the suspect at trial ... Justice Stephen G. Breyer, joined by Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan, said allowing 'a prosecutor to comment on a defendant’s constitutionally protected silence would put that defendant in an impossible predicament.' Mr. Salinas’s choice, Justice Breyer wrote, was 'between incrimination through speech and incrimination through silence.'"  Adam Liptak at the New York Times.

Same Sex Marriage

Fears of a same-sex marriage backlash are overblown.  "Fears that a pro-marriage equality ruling at the Supreme Court in the next two weeks might provoke a public backlash against LGBT Americans are unfounded, according to a new analysis by a group of political scientists ... These results held among both evangelicals and Americans who were 'dissatisfied' with the direction of the country, two of the groups most likely to backlash against a court ruling ... Historical experience backs up the scholars’ finding. Support for marriage equality in Massachusetts and Iowa did not drop off and, according to most polling, continued to increase after each state’s court ruled in favor of equality."  Zack Beauchamp at Think Progress.

Voting Rights

States may not have 'proof of citizenship' requirements for voting.  "States may not require additional proof of citizenship on federal forms designed to streamline voter-registration procedures, the Supreme Court ruled Monday. The court rejected a requirement passed by Arizona voters in 2004 that potential voters supply proof of eligibility beyond an applicant’s oath on the federal form that he or she is a citizen."  Robert Barnes at the Washington Post.

Miscellaneous

Inside the mind of Clarence Thomas. "Justice Clarence Thomas followed his ... originalism in Alleyne v. U.S. ... in holding that a fact that increases a defendant’s mandatory minimum sentence must be found true by the jury, not by the judge alone. Just a few minutes earlier, however ... Thomas had provided the deciding vote in Salinas v. Texas, arguing that a defendant’s exercising the right to remain silent can be used by the prosecutor to argue to the jury that silence is evidence of guilt. From a policy perspective, these two opinions ... make no sense. The only way to reconcile them is to enter the mind of Justice Thomas, in which the court’s job is to bring us back to the nation’s founding." Noah Feldman at Bloomberg.

Headdesk. "Monday marked the first time ever that Bush v. Gore was cited by a Supreme Court justice in an opinion since the controversial 2000 decision ... Justice Clarence Thomas cited the case in his dissent in Arizona v. Inter Tribal Council, a case involving a voting law in Arizona ... Some scholars have argued that the lack of Supreme Court citation of the major case is evidence that it was based on shoddy legal reasoning. Blackman, who calls Bush v. Gore an "unprecedent," quoted a famous line from the 2000 majority opinion saying the jurisprudence was "limited to the present circumstances, for the problem of equal protection in election processes generally presents many complexities."  Sahil Kapur at Talking Points Memo.

Politics

Abortion

Stunts to please the base pass as lawmaking.  "House Republicans will spend the day approving the most restrictive anti-abortion bill considered in Congress in the last decade, even though they have many reasons not to. The bill won't be signed into law; it's unconstitutional; and it badly undermines the GOP's flailing "rebranding" campaign, while further alienating women voters. So why bother? Because ... 'Republican leaders acknowledge that its purpose is to satisfy vocal elements of their base." And apparently, that's all that matters -- the base is a beast that must be fed, even if it's a pointless vanity exercise, and even if it undermines the party's interests.'"  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

DOD

Pentagon says women in all combat units by 2016.  "The Pentagon unveiled plans Tuesday for fully integrating women into front-line and special combat roles, including elite forces such as Army Rangers and Navy SEALs ... Women are permitted to serve in some hazardous jobs and did so in Iraq and Afghanistan where a number were killed. But it wasn't until January that then-Defense Secretary Leon Panetta formally lifted the official ban on women in combat. Top leadership embraced the overall concept and goal of completing the change by January 2016."  CNN.

Drones

The states take on drones. "Domestic drone privacy bills have been introduced in a majority of state legislatures this year. On Friday, Gov. Rick Perry’s signature made Texas at least the sixth state to regulate drone use. Illinois will become the seventh if Gov. Pat Quinn signs the bill that’s now on his desk ... Bills in Florida, Montana, Tennessee and Virginia, as well as the pending Illinois bill, focus on drone surveillance by law enforcement. Most bills prohibit images gathered with drones from being used in court, and some prohibit ... public agencies from using drones altogether. In contrast, Idaho and Texas have passed bills that regulate drone surveillance by public and private parties."  Timothy Lee at Wonkblog.

The status of the drone bills in the states.  Allie Bohm at the ACLU.

The Economy

The negative impacts of welfare reform.  "Welfare reform is pretty popular. A Rasmussen poll last July found that 83 percent of American adults favor the work requirement placed on welfare by the 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act, commonly known as the welfare reform law ... But it’s not that simple. Indeed, the health consequences of the change, a new study suggests, are potentially quite large, and quite negative ... Welfare reform increases mortality among recipients, reducing life expectancy by about nine months."  Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog.

Unpaid internships and economic fairness.  "This sort of intrusion in the marketplace is precisely what government should do to regulate commerce ... An unregulated market that permits employers to take work for free ... has a dramatic, and unfair, effect. There are three actors ... employers (who want low labor costs), interns (who will work for free), and workers who need money ... Employers and interns have joined forces ... to the economic disadvantage of workers ... Paid entry-level work is scarcer, and some workers lose out. The ones who can't afford to work for free lose out on the training and networking that unpaid interns enjoy. Judge Pauley said that isn't fair and it isn't legal."  Cullen Seltzer at Slate.

The economy and education.  "Things are looking grim for young Americans starting work. According to a new report on the state of US education from the Council on Foreign Relations, Americans going into the labor force today are less educated than those retiring from it. This phenomenon is unique among developed countries. For 55- to 64-year-olds, the US has the highest percentage of high-school graduates and the third-highest percentage of college graduates; in people aged 25 to 34, the country is 10th and 13th respectively."  Lauren Alix Brown at Quartz.

Farm Bill

FBI

Interesting trend.  "'The F.B.I. takes very seriously any shooting incidents involving our agents, and as such we have an effective, time-tested process for addressing them internally,' a bureau spokesman said. But if such internal investigations are time-tested, their outcomes are also predictable: from 1993 to early 2011, F.B.I. agents fatally shot about 70 'subjects' and wounded about 80 others — and every one of those episodes was deemed justified ... The last two years have followed the same pattern: an F.B.I. spokesman said that since 2011, there had been no findings of improper intentional shootings."  Charlie Savage and Michael Schmidt at the New York Times.

Filibuster Fights

Empty threats.  "Harry Reid has been threatening to change the Senate rules on nominations, so that a minority ... can’t prevent a president from filling vacancies in the judiciary or his own administration ... If Reid does that, whenever McConnell gets the majority, he’ll change the rules to allow a straight majority rule on everything ... McConnell is trying to scare Democrats into preserving an arrangement that ... gives his party more power ... There’s zero evidence that Senate Democrats ... have the internal party discipline to deploy those kinds of hardball tactics. They’re being asked to preserve minority powers that are used against them but that they’ll never use. It’s a really easy choice."  Jonathan Chait at New York Magazine.

Foreign Policy

US/Taliban/Afghanistan peace talks.  "The U.S. will have its first formal meeting with the Taliban in more than a year over the next couple of days in Doha, which will be followed by a Taliban meeting with the Afghan High Peace Council, the White House announced Tuesday. The news of the coming U.S.-Taliban meetings followed an announcement by Afghan President Hamid Karzai that the peace process will be led by the Afghan government—and will move to Afghanistan following an undetermined number of initial rounds of talks to be held in Doha, the capital of the Gulf island nation of Qatar, near Saudi Arabia, where the Taliban has a representative office."  Josh Rogin at the Daily Beast.

Senator Corker blocks aid to Afghanistan.  "Until the Obama administration explains the rationale behind the payments, the Afghan government will have to go without $75 million in American aid. Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, the ranking Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee, announced Monday that he was putting a hold on the aid until the White House offered 'sufficient assurances' that the bags of cash being delivered to Mr. Karzai by the C.I.A. were not fueling the corruption that pervades the Afghan government."  Matthew Rosenberg at the New York Times.

Rouhani's election doesn't guarantee US-Iran nuclear talks.  "After the surprise victory this weekend of Hassan Rowhani—the most moderate candidate given permission to run—the administration says it’s eager to return to negotiations with Iran. But that doesn’t mean the Obama administration is ready to ease pressure on the Iranian regime, let alone cut a deal with it ... Obama said the elections showed 'the Iranian people want to move in a different direction,' but he said that sanctions 'will not be lifted in the absence of significant steps' demonstrating 'that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapon.'"  Carla Anne Robbins at Bloomberg.

GOP

A party facing demographic doom.  "The lesson for the Republican Party is sobering: A political coalition being stretched is at risk of being shattered. For the GOP — beating against heavy demographic and generational tides — the attempt to modernize is unavoidable. In the next few elections, the ebb might be overcome with just the right presidential candidate, in just the right political circumstance. But in the long run, Republicans are borne away from power. There won’t be enough white and gray voters to win national elections."  Michael Gerson at the Washington Post.

Bobby Jindal: The Republican Party's problem.  "Jindal has gone from diagnosing what’s wrong with the Republican Party to personifying it. The GOP’s problem ... it insults its own intelligence. It’s come up with a theory of liberal governance that has obviated the need for a theory of conservative governance ... Jindal is proposing a variant of that exact same mistake ... Jindal’s come up with a ridiculous caricature of liberalism and is assuming its failures will win the country back for conservatism ... That’s how the GOP becomes the stupid party: Republican Party elites like Jindal convince Republican Party activists of things that aren’t true."  Ezra Klein at Wonkblog.

Guns

The ATF Director fight continues.  "The No. 2 Democrat in the Senate is readying legislation aimed at pressuring the gun lobby to endorse the confirmation of a permanent Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) director. The bill being crafted by Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin ... would allow for the ATF’s functions to be shifted to another agency, such as the FBI, effectively bypassing the need for the Senate to confirm a director of the embattled bureau ... President Obama’s nominee to fill the position ... acting Director B. Todd Jones, is currently making his way through confirmation proceedings ... but has come up against stiff Republican opposition." Jordy Yager at the Hill.

Health

Ezra Klein and Avik Roy discuss the Affordable Care Act.  Wonkblog.

IRS

Can we be done with this yet?  "Democrats on the House Oversight Committee have just released a full transcript of testimony from a key witness in the investigation of IRS targeting of conservatives — and it appears to confirm that the initial targeting did originate with a low-level employee in the Cincinnati office. It also shows a key witness and IRS screening manager – a self described conservative Republican — denying any communication with the White House or senior IRS officials about the targeting."  Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.

NASA

Half of NASA's 8 new astronauts are women.  "NASA named eight new astronaut candidates today from a pool of more than 6,000 applicants - the second-largest applicant pool in NASA history. Four of those eight astronauts are women -- the highest percentage ever selected by NASA."  Lee Roop at All Alabama.

NSA

Despite Snowden's personal politics, espionage isn't going away.  "One of the strange and discomforting things about the current Snowden sensation ... is the specter of a younger generation that finds any espionage intrinsically illegitimate and immoral. Here we have the fusing of techno-utopianism and an Assange-like belief that any state secrecy is unacceptable: in all, a strange brew of naivete and nihilism. The historical truth, of course, is that states have been performing espionage as long as there have been anything like states ... States have regarded espionage ... as core state business for millennia ... Espionage is not going away anytime soon."  John Schindler at the XX Committee.

Let's get something straight - there's a big difference between Obama and Bush.  "s far as we know right now, the Obama administration has complied with the law. The Bush administration ignored the law. I know that some of you are going to call this Obama apologetics, but you know what? I don't care, and you're placing your own smug certainty about the alleged indistinguishable evil of systems above the facts. You should acknowledge that this is an actual factual difference, and an important one."  Michael Tomasky at the Daily Beast.

NSA pushback continues.  "The National Security Agency surveillance programs made public this month have helped foil more than 50 terrorist plots since Sept. 11, including one to blow up the New York Stock Exchange, top intelligence officials told Congress on Tuesday."  Eric McClam at NBC.

President Obama

The dip in Obama's approval should reverse itself soon. "The president’s approval rating has dipped, probably because of the NSA surveillance revelations or the accumulated effect of supposed or actual scandals ... The question is whether the recent drop presages a long-term decline in the president’s credibility, or if the president’s approval ratings should be expected to recover. Without additional bad news, a recovery seems likelier ... Without additional revelations, what’s going to keep the NSA controversy alive? My hunch: nothing, just like the controversies that preceded it."  Nate Cohn at the New Republic.

International

Global

The WHO goes after junk food.  "The World Health Organization (WHO) on Tuesday sharply criticized the food industry’s decision to market its unhealthy products to children, saying that strategy has been 'disastrously effective' at fueling the global obesity epidemic. The United Nations health agency called for tighter regulation in this area to prevent corporations from advertising fatty, salty, and calorie-heavy foods to kids."  Tara Culp-Ressler at Think Progress.

Asia

Alternative narratives on Chinese urbanization.  "The narrative about forced migration — with its charged language about 'top down' approaches ... its reference to the 'disastrous Maoist campaign to industrialize overnight' — has an obvious emotional appeal for a popular audience that is comfortable with narratives about good guys and bad guys. The alternative narrative — one about governments all over the world that are trying to cope with the billions of people who want to move to urban opportunity — better captures the deepest and most important undercurrent in the global economy the we and our children will face."  Paul Romer at the Urbanization Project.

Europe

Russia - keeping it classy.  Not.  "Russia's State Duma has approved a bill ... that would ban the adoption of children by foreign same-sex couples ... The amendments ban adoption of Russian orphans by foreign same-sex couples and single foreign nationals from countries where same-sex marriages are legalized ... President Vladimir Putin publicly stated two weeks ago that he would sign the law banning Russian children's adoption by foreign same-sex couples if approved by the parliament."  Radio Free Europe.

Middle East

Afghanistan takes over security from the US, NATO.  "U.S.-led troops handed complete control of security to Afghanistan authorities Tuesday – an act of faith in country’s fledgling police and army in the face of near-constant insurgent attacks. The formal transfer of responsibility is major milestone in the process of withdrawal from the country, 12 years after NATO-led mission ISAF began its mission to end Taliban rule."  Akbar Shinwari and Sohel Uddin + Video at NBC.

South America

Protests in Brazil.  "Bringing to mind the ongoing protests in Turkey, what began last week as an improvised demonstration against a small hike in bus and subway fares flared into an outright revolt, sweeping a dozen Brazilian cities and throwing a harsh light on the shortcomings of a nation anxious to claim the stage in world affairs. Triggering the revolt was an innocuous-seeming fare increase of about nine cents for public transportation in São Paulo. But the outrage touched a nerve in this sprawling metropolis of 18 million, where 7 million people depend on a precarious network of buses and subways, and where commuting to and from work can be a four-hour ordeal."  Mac Margolis at the Daily Beast.

Science

Why it is possible to walk on lava.  "The biggest thing most people don’t realize is just how viscous lava is. It isn’t like water, where if you step into a pool, you sink to the bottom because the water lacks any strength to hold you up. Lava does have strength and ... even when red hot, does offer a lot of resistance ... If that flow has a decent crust ... and is moving fairly slow ... and if you move quickly, your weight isn’t going to be enough to cause you to sink into the flow."  Erik Klemetti + Video at Wired.

Buildings might be made of artificial bone in the near future.  "Move over nanotubes, there's a new futuristic building material in town and its origins may surprise you. Developed by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), human bone is the inspiration behind the latest high-tech composite, which can be made in just a few hours using a 3D printer. The new material — which is lauded for its durability, low density and environmentally sustainable constituents — gets its strength from its bone-like structure."  Elizabeth Palermo at Tech News Daily.

Miscellaneous

Weather was correlated with the expulsion of Jews from cities in medieval Europe. "Inclement weather in Europe made the expulsion of Jewish communities more likely during the Middle Ages ... When looking at 785 city-level expulsions of Jews from 933 European cities between 1100 and 1800, ... 'one standard deviation decrease in average growing season temperature in the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries was associated with a one to two percentage point increase in the likelihood that a Jewish community would be expelled.' Of course, the issue isn't the weather so much as agricultural productivity levels and their impact on the regional economy -- for which Jews tended to get blamed."  Joshua Keating at War of Ideas.

Jack Lew's new signature.  Not as cool as the original.  Zachary Goldfarb at Wonkblog.