Thursday, January 16, 2014

Weekend + Monday: 1/11/14 - 1/13/14


The Economy


The Overview


The new normal is pretty depressing.  "Yes, we avoided a Great Depression II, but only to emerge into a Great Malaise, with barely increasing incomes for a large proportion of citizens ... We can expect more of the same in 2014. In the United States, median incomes have continued their seemingly relentless decline … The likely contraction from the next round of austerity – which already cost 1-2 percentage points of GDP growth in 2013 – means that growth will remain anemic, barely strong enough to generate jobs for new entrants into the labor force."  Joseph E. Stiglitz at Project Syndicate.

The intersection of poverty and inequality, with charts.  "Overall economic growth was pretty much all you needed to predict the poverty rate from the late 1950s to the mid-’60s. After that, however … you would have concluded that poverty ended at some point in the mid-1980s, which … um … didn’t happen … It wasn’t just slowing G.D.P. growth that led to the disconnect. It was also ... growing inequality … The mechanics are simple. If less of the economy’s market-generated growth ... ends up in the lower reaches of the income scale, either there will be more poverty for any given level of G.D.P. growth, or there will have to be a lot more transfers to offset inequality’s poverty-inducing impact."  Jared Bernstein at Economix.

Gender and the labor market, in four charts.  "The younger you look the more you see men's disemployment as a theme. For younger workers we really are slouching toward gender equity—we're just doing it more by men becoming worse off than by women becoming better off."  Matthew Yglesias at Slate.

All December job gains went to women.  "American employers added 74,000 jobs in December on net. All of that employment increase was a result of new jobs filled by women. Women gained, on net, 75,000 jobs in December; men lost, on net, 1,000 jobs. This was the first time since December 2007 that a month’s job gains were captured entirely by women. Women represented more than half (56 percent) of the net gain in the 12 months … Women also suffered far fewer job losses during the recession, partly because men are more likely to work in industries very sensitive to the business cycle (like construction or manufacturing, as opposed to health care and government)."  Catherine Rampell at Economix.


Banking


The too-big-to-fail moral hazard of banking.  "The largest financial institutions ... appear to suffer from severe and persistent governance and control problems … Reports of billions of dollars in fines to settle ... violations of laws and regulations by the largest financial institutions come with alarming frequency. These cases show a pervasive pattern of loose oversight … How is all this possible? The answer lies ... in ineffective regulation and in the perverse incentives for banks to become ever larger ... If investors believe that policymakers will not allow 'systemic' institutions to fail ... the institutions can borrow under attractive terms that do not fully reflect the risks they take."  Anat R. Admati at the New York Times.


The CFPB


The story of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.  Lydia DePillis at Wonkblog.


The Minimum Wage


The minimum wage lifts many boats.  "U.S. policymakers continue to engage in an active debate over the minimum wage … The argument that only a small share of workers is actually paid the minimum wage misses a key point: many of those who would be impacted by a raise in the minimum wage are actually low-wage workers making slightly above the minimum wage … Considering that near-minimum wage workers would also be affected, we find that an increase could raise the wages of up to 35 million workers—roughly one-third of the American workforce."  Benjamin H. Harris and Melissa S. Kearney at Brookings.


War on Poverty


Marco Rubio's backwards poverty policy.  "Sen. Rubio ... proposed to turn the federal safety net programs over to the states in the form of 'revenue neutral' block grants … It’s rehashed Ryan, if not Reagan … What it really means is the safety net will be unable to expand in recessions … Under these arrangements, states will be unable to tap the Feds for unemployment benefits, nutritional assistance, and all the other functions that must expand to meet need when the market fails. This would be a huge step backwards, essentially enshrining poverty-inducing austerity in place of literally decades of policy advancements to meet demand contractions with temporary spending expansions."  Jared Bernstein at On the Economy.

















Miscellaneous


A new turn in internships.  "A slew of unpaid interns have filed suit against their former employers, including high-profile companies such as Fox Searchlight Pictures, Hearst Magazines, Gawker Media, NBCUniversal, Sony, and Conde Nast, claiming they were, in fact, employees under federal labor laws and demanding back pay ... In June came a federal district judge’s decision that got everyone’s attention: He ruled in favor of two interns who had worked on the set of the Fox Searchlight film Black Swan. That decision has set employers here and nationwide scrambling to reevaluate the legality of their own internships."  Melissa Schorr at the Boston Globe.



Chris Christie


The Overview


The growing scandals could derail Christie's political ambitions.  "There are now two ongoing investigations into alleged abuses of power, each of which is potentially fatal. Even if neither produces further damaging allegations, they both have already yielded enough public information to be used against him. Beyond that, there is a long list of potential scandals dating back to before his governorship … The high number of scandals surrounding Christie, and the pattern ... suggests that at least some of the allegations against him are true … The deeper problem is simply that Christie appears to be genuinely corrupt on a scale that is rare for a modern top-tier presidential candidate."  Jonathan Chait at New York Magazine.

Public opinion of Christie is relatively unchanged, for now.  "The public paid far more attention to last week’s cold snap than to the controversy swirling around New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. There also has been little short-term change in opinions about Christie: 60% say their opinion of Christie has not changed in recent days, while 16% now view him less favorably and 6% more favorably … The survey finds that majorities of Republicans (69%), Democrats (55%) and independents (60%) say that their opinion of Christie has not changed lately. Among Republicans, about as many say their opinion has become more favorable (9%) as less favorable (10%)."  Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.

Christie is famous for punishing his enemies - and rewarding his friends.  "It doesn’t take much ... to realize that his claim that he 'isn’t a bully' is a lie. Bridegate isn’t really about bullying though. It is about a far more disturbing aspect of Christie’s career. Dating back to his time as the U.S. Attorney for New Jersey, Christie has been willing to utilize his public office to reward allies and punish enemies. While Bridgegate has focused attention on his capacity for punishing his enemies, his no-bid contracts allegedly doled out to friends as U.S. Attorney illustrate Christie’s seeming willingness to use public office to reward his friends. These are two sides of the same coin."  Sam Kleiner at the Daily Beast.







George Washington Bridge


A U.S. attorney has opened an investigation over the bridge lane closings.  "U.S. Attorney Paul Fishman has opened a probe into the lane closures, his spokeswoman said. 'The Port Authority Office of Inspector General has referred the matter to us, and our office is reviewing it to determine whether a federal law was implicated,' Rebekah Carmichael said in a statement."  Victoria Cavaliere at the Huffington Post.

Why did Christie take so long to respond?  "This is the problem Christie hasn’t solved yet. At his epic news conference Thursday, he focused again and again on how loyal staff members had 'lied' to him and how he felt personally victimized. What he never explained was why he did not press his staff earlier for paper trails so he could know for certain that all his vociferous denials were true. He didn’t deal with this flagrant foul until he had no choice. Saying he had faith in his folks is not enough. Christie still has to tell us why he did not treat the possibility of such a misuse of power with any urgency."  E.J. Dionne Jr. at the Washington Post.

10 unanswered questions on Bridge-Gate.  Maggie Haberman at Politico.







Hurricane Sandy


He's also in trouble over some Sandy advertisements.  "New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie faced questions over the use of Superstorm Sandy relief funds. CNN has learned that federal officials are investigating whether Christie improperly used some of that money to produce tourism ads that starred him and his family … As bad as the bridge scandal is for Christie, any finding that he improperly spent Sandy aid would tarnish the signature achievement that has helped elevate his legacy and made him a serious potential challenger for the White House."  Chris Frates at CNN.



Elections


The Overview


Elections translator: Independent usually means a partisan masquerading as a neutral voter.  "Let's start with a simple reality of independent voters: Most of them have partisan orientations. While many Americans like to describe themselves as independent voters -- especially at a time when neither major party is particularly popular -- when push comes to shove, independents largely remain loyal to one side or the other. A 2012 Washington Post-Kaiser Family Foundation poll showed that more than six in 10 (63 percent) independents behaved as 'disguised' Democrats or Republicans; a quarter were 'detached,' and only 13 percent fit the mold of true 'deliberators.'"  Sean Sullivan at the Fix.


2014 - Arkansas


Arkansas Senator Mark Pryor can win - if he can escape from the Obama label.  "Sen. Mark Pryor, who shares the best-known political name in Arkansas aside from Clinton, is testing how far a Democrat can go in a state where President Barack Obama is deeply unpopular and Republicans are on a winning streak. Republicans are banking on first-term Rep. Tom Cotton to continue that streak, tying Pryor to Obama and 'Obamacare' every chance they get … Obama "has been toxic for Arkansas Democrats," … For Pryor to win, she said, 'he's got to convince people he's a Pryor even more than he's a Democrat.' Cotton wants to prevent that."  Charles Babington at the Associated Press.


2014 - Florida 


Florida's bellwether election is anything but. "It’s been framed as the clearest barometer of the public’s mood heading into this year’s midterms: a special election battle for a 50-50 congressional district in the famously 50-50 state of Florida. But upon closer inspection, the race for Florida’s 13th Congressional District … is not quite the bellwether it’s being portrayed as. More than a dozen operatives and officials from both parties ... were almost unanimous that Democrat Alex Sink, her party’s 2010 nominee for Florida governor, has emerged as the unambiguous favorite in the race."  Alex Isenstadt at Politico.



2014 - Georgia


Can Michelle Nunn win in Georgia's Senate race?  "If there’s a formula for winning as a Democrat in Georgia, Michelle Nunn thinks she’s found it: Don’t sound like a liberal, hold your Republican friends close, and never leave a loose end hanging … For Democrats, she represents the strongest opportunity to capture a Senate seat that Republicans have held for the last decade. The most recent poll has her tied or leading all of her potential opponents. Much is riding on her candidacy: If Nunn can ... turn Georgia purple, Senate Democrats are much more likely to hold onto their slim majority in a tough election year."  Suzy Khimm at MSNBC.


2014 - Virginia 


Senator Warner is in a pretty good position.  "Former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie is set to announce that he will challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) in 2014 … But does Gillespie actually stand a chance? That's up for debate … As swing state senators go, Warner is very popular … As members of Congress these days go, those are sterling numbers -- almost unheard-of. Gillespie needs at least one of these two things, and probably both, to happen: 1) He needs the environment to be strongly behind Republicans … and/or 2) He needs Warner to stumble -- badly."  Aaron Blake at the Fix


2016


 The top 10 GOP candidates for 2016 - Christie is still the frontrunner, for now.  Chris Cillizza at the Fix.

Your guide to anti-Hillary themes.  "The chasm between the real Hillary Clinton and the unseemly caricature portrayed during two decades of personal attacks is all too familiar … Distinct from legitimate policy criticisms, these attacks have served ... to undermine one of the most accomplished women of our lifetime. As 2016 speculation grows, the public commentary about Hillary Clinton is following predictable patterns. Several pervasive anti-Hillary themes have been dusted off for yet another political cycle … designed to dehumanize and demean her. Many of the themes are rooted in the sexism and misogyny that permeate our culture."  Peter Daou.



Politics


Congress


Remembering the accomplishments of Congressman George Miller.  "George Miller of California, one of the most senior House Democrats, announced today that he’s retiring at the end of this term. Miller is one of the last of the 'Watergate babies,' the historic class elected in 1974 … Miller’s career is a good reminder that individual members matter, even in the current strong-party era. He’s been a legislative leader on several issues, perhaps most notably the No Child Left Behind education reform signed into law by President George W. Bush. Miller was also one of several veteran Watergate babies who were key players on the Affordable Care Act."  Jonathan Bernstein at Bloomberg.

On the coming decline of Congressional staff.  "Behind every member of Congress is a small cadre of staffers, without whom lawmakers' jobs would be impossible. They craft legislation, are experts in arcane policy, maintain hectic schedules, and help ensure that constituents get served by the government they pay for. But cuts to office budgets—down 20 percent over the past three years alone—and changes to employee health care, along with near-constant threats of furloughs and shutdowns, have eroded morale on Capitol Hill, and more senior staffers are looking toward the exits than in the past, according to a new survey released Monday by the Congressional Management Foundation."  Alex Seitz-Wald at the National Journal.

Anti-lobbying reforms haven't been that effective.  "A National Journal investigation has found that despite efforts to clip the wings of congressional travel planned and paid for by special interests, lawmakers are again taking flight. Indeed, the reality is that lobbyists ... can still escort members on trips all around the world. More than six years ago, reformers pledged that tightened travel rules would end an era of globe-trotting tied to special interests ... It hasn't worked. Take it from Abramoff. 'I just think they reshuffled the deck,' he said, having emerged from prison as a self-styled reformer. 'But it's the same deck. They're still playing the game.'"  Shane Goldmacher at the National Journal.


Criminal Justice


Our justice system is pretty messed up.  "It seems clear that the ... criminal justice system in the United States is far from colorblind. The evidence suggests that the criminal justice system applies in a radically unbalanced way, placing disproportionate attention on our fellow black citizens … Starting in the 1970s, the United States has witnessed a drastic increase in the rate of black imprisonment, both absolutely and relative to whites … You can of course still think … that the United States prison laws are fairly applied and colorblind. But if you do, you almost certainly must accept that black Americans are among the most dangerous groups in the multithousand year history of human civilization."  Jason Stanley and Vesla Weaver at the New York Times.

This is specifically true when it comes to drug policy.  "If you’re white, you can do drugs with relative impunity … Black and Latino Americans will continue to get locked up while others are getting high … There were 8 million marijuana arrests in the United States from 2001 to 2010. These arrests were anything but colorblind: Eighty-eight percent were for possession, a crime for which black Americans are almost four times more likely to be arrested than whites … African Americans represented 14 percent of drug users ... yet accounted for 34 percent of all drug arrests and 53 percent of those sent to prison for a drug offense."  Stacey Patton and David J. Leonard at the Washington Post.  

Still, moves towards marijuana decriminalization are heading in the right direction - Vermont edition.  "Starting Monday, Vermonters will not be arrested for possessing less than an ounce of marijuana. The decriminalization law … will remove criminal penalties on small amounts of cannabis and replace them with civil fines …Vermont legalized medical marijuana in 2004, and now joins 14 other states that have adopted decriminalization laws for non-medical cannabis … An ACLU report released last month found that African Americans in Vermont were 4.4 times more likely be arrested on marijuana charges than whites, according to 2010 records."  Nick Wing at the Huffington Post.


DOD


The Navy's new aircraft carrier isn't looking so hot.  "The US Navy’s newest aircraft carrier, a multibillion-dollar behemoth that is the first in a next generation of carriers, is beset with a number of performance problems, even failing tests of its ability to launch and recover combat jets ... The early tests are raising worries that the USS Gerald R. Ford, … may not meet the Navy’s goal of significantly increasing the number of warplanes it can quickly launch — and could even be less effective than older vessels … with a price tag estimated at more than $12 billion. At least four crucial components, which are still being installed on the ship, are at risk because of their poor or unknown reliability."  Bryan Bender at the Boston Globe.


Energy and the Environment


US emissions increased in 2013.  "The party's now officially ending, at least for those worried about global warming. In an early estimate, the U.S. Energy Information Administration says that U.S. carbon-dioxide emissions from energy sources increased 2 percent in 2013: What happened? The big story here, as usual, involves coal and natural gas. Namely, U.S. electric utilities burned a bit more coal and a bit less natural gas in 2013. And, since coal emits more carbon when burned for electricity, that increased emissions."  Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.

Obama selects key adviser on environmental issues.  "The Obama administration is getting ready to give a lot more juice to a key executive environmental office in a year officials say will be marked by the White House acting on its own when Congress won’t. The administration, led by newly installed senior adviser John Podesta, is expected to boost the profile of the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) … The backstage reshuffling hints at a streamlined process for bold new regulatory moves aimed at curbing greenhouse gases and standing up the alternative energy industry. Activists say CEQ could also bring a new focus to the conservation side of environmentalism."  Evan McMorris-Santoro at Buzzfeed.


The Federal Reserve


QE was a good idea - and it worked.  "As Mr. Bernanke prepares to depart at the end of January and the Fed has initiated the exit-strategy countdown with the start of tapering, it is time to take stock of the QE Era—and time for the critics to admit they were wrong. There is a valid debate to be had about how much longer the Fed's loose monetary policy should continue and about the risks that might be entailed. But looking back at the period since 2010, it is clear that the Fed was right to try to help improve the country's financial health, avoiding deflation, and the critics were wrong that QE would cause inflation and harm the economy."  Austan Goolsbee at the Wall Street Journal.

How Obama will shape the Federal Reserve for years to come.  "President Obama ... took another significant step toward making his mark on the powerful Federal Reserve, announcing he will tap Stanley Fischer ... to serve as the Fed’s vice chairman … The president also announced he would nominate Lael Brainard … to serve as a Fed governor. He also is nominating Jerome Powell, a current Fed governor … for a second term … Given the Senate’s recent decision to lower the vote threshold for non-Supreme Court nominations, all the candidates are likely to join the Fed over the coming months. As a result, Obama will have fully shaped the Fed in the final three years of his presidency."  Zachary A. Goldfarb at the Washington Post.  

On Stanley Fischer, the new nominee for Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve.  Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog.


Fiscal Fights


The winners and losers of the budget.  Ed O'Keefe at the Fix.


Florida


Florida's online unemployment benefits system is glitchy.  "The botched rollout of Florida’s online system for unemployment claims may have kept jobless Floridians from receiving $20 million in benefits in October and November, according to an informal analysis by a workers’ rights group. State officials question whether the drop in benefits would have been that drastic. But three months after the introduction of a system that required applicants to sign up online for unemployment benefits, Florida officials are still scrambling to get it working effectively amid political jousting over what went wrong."  Lizette Alvarez at the New York Times.


Foreign Policy


A new phase in the Iran nuclear deal.  "Iran and a group of six world powers completed a deal on Sunday that will temporarily freeze much of Tehran’s nuclear program starting next Monday, Jan. 20, in exchange for limited relief from Western economic sanctions … The interim agreement is, in effect, an elaborate pause button that provides a basis for pursuing a larger accord. It adds at least several weeks to the time Iran would need to acquire enough enriched uranium for a bomb if it decided to pursue a military option, but it can be reversed if either side changes its mind."  Michael R. Gordon and Eric Schmitt at the New York Times.

Our Egypt policy seems pretty ineffectual.  "Hagel and Sissi have spoken often … each with a similar set of messages to Sissi: Try to be less repressive and more inclusive … It is difficult to think of another case where U.S. policy is so completely divorced from realities on the ground. There is little to suggest that Hagel’s exhortations have had even a minimal effect ... Since the coup, there have been four mass killings, including the worst massacre in decades; some 10,000 people have been arrested or detained; and opposition protests have been banned. The crackdown has extended to secular activists as well, with three leading revolutionaries sentenced to three years in prison."  Shadi Hamid at Politico.

Or perhaps just business as usual.  "Congress is preparing to allow the Obama administration to give more than $1 billion dollars to the Egyptian government and military, despite the fact the generals perpetrated a coup last summer and are suppressing opposition ahead of a nation-wide constitutional referendum … On the aid front, the administration is adhering to the old status quo and wants to make sure the funds can go through uninterrupted ... 'The administration seems to be turning a blind eye towards a lot of things that are going on in Egypt and that is part of how we got to where we are now.'"  Josh Rogin at the Daily Beast.

US considers placing sanctions on South Sudan.  "The United States is weighing targeted sanctions against South Sudan due to the failure of leaders ... to take steps to end a crisis that has brought the country to the brink of civil war … The U.S. government was unlikely to consider steps intended to economically harm impoverished South Sudan but would likely focus on any measures on those individuals or groups it sees as blocking efforts at brokering peace or committing atrocities. Traditionally U.S. sanctions against individuals or groups involve a ban on travel to the United States and freezing of their assets in U.S. banks."  Louis Charbonneau and Warren Strobel at Reuters.

Food aid policy is pathetic.  "Currently, the vast majority of food for U.S. government relief and development programs is purchased in the United States and then shipped thousands of miles overseas, often at great cost. Such a system is great for the bottom line of large shippers … but not for people in need or for taxpayers. Just how inefficient is the U.S. system...? More than half of every dollar spent on U.S. food programs currently goes to shipping and transportation costs, rather than to lifesaving food, which means that a great deal of that money is ending up in coffers of companies."  John Norris at Foreign Policy.


GOP


The party at war with the poor.  "Republicans are doing all they can to hurt the poor … Most Republican-controlled states are … refusing to implement ... the expansion of Medicaid, thereby denying health coverage to almost five million low-income Americans … Bear in mind that every budget the G.O.P. has offered since it took over the House in 2010 involves savage cuts in Medicaid, food stamps and other antipoverty programs … The point is that a party committed to small government and low taxes on the rich is, more or less necessarily, a party committed to hurting, not helping, the poor."  Paul Krugman at the New York Times.


Guns


Surprise, surprise.  "Reasoning that more guns mean greater safety, Kansas lawmakers voted last year to require cities and counties to make public buildings accessible to people legally carrying concealed weapons. But … the Legislature provided an exemption: Guns can be banned as long as local governments pay for protections … The new law has forced some local leaders to weigh policy conviction against fiscal pragmatism in a choice that critics say was flawed from the start: Open vulnerable locations to concealed side arms or stretch meager budgets to cover the extra security measures."  Steven Yaccino at the New York Times.


Health


Over 2 million Americans have enrolled for healthcare, thanks to the ACA.  "We had a pretty good sense of ACA enrollment numbers shortly before New Year’s, but the Obama administration fleshed out the details in a new report ... The topline looks pretty good for the law’s proponents, though the data is not without caveats. Nearly 2.2 million people have selected plans from the state and federal marketplaces by Dec. 28, 2013."  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

We need more young people to enroll in ACA exchanges.  "Twenty-four percent of those purchasing coverage are young adults, the coveted age group between 18 and 34 -- the exact group the White House thinks it really, really needs to enroll to make the health-care law work. This is below the White House's target. The Obama administration has previously said that if 7 million people enrolled in coverage as expected, 2.7 million of them -- or about 40 percent -- would have to be young adults. That's an important target to hit because more young adults in the exchanges would mean a more healthy population, whose premiums could help subsidize the health care of older and sicker enrollees."  Sarah Kliff at Wonkblog.

Finally, someone gets fired for the mess formally referred to as the ACA online marketplace launch.  "The Obama administration has decided to jettison from HealthCare.gov the IT contractor, CGI Federal, that has been mainly responsible for building the defect-ridden online health insurance marketplace and has been immersed in the work of repairing it. Federal health officials are preparing to sign early next week a 12-month contract worth roughly $90 million with a different company, Accenture, after concluding that CGI has not been effective enough in fixing the intricate computer system underpinning the federal Web site."  Juliet Eilperin and Amy Goldstein at the Washington Post.

The ACA's Spanish language site is also a mess.  Obama, you have more holes to plug.  "HealthCare.gov's October 1st launch was a disaster ... The site's Spanish-language version -- CuidadoDeSalud.gov -- launched more than two months late. It doesn't look like the Obama administration used the extra time wisely. The Associated Press reports 'the translations were so clunky and full of grammatical mistakes that critics say they must have been computer-generated.' The situation is even worse when applicants begin digging into then nitty-gritty of the plans. "When you get into the details of the plans, it's not all written in Spanish. It's written in Spanglish'."  Ezra Klein at Wonkblog.


North Dakota


North Dakotan politicians vs ... the oil industry?  "After train accidents involving North Dakotan crude oil, the state’s political leaders are putting pressure on the Obama administration to improve railroad safety regulations, with some even urging a slowdown in drilling until safety solutions are found. The drive by both state Republican and Democratic leaders is creating fissures among them and the oil industry, and between rail and oil interests, about what should be done to avoid future accidents."  Clifford Krauss and Matthew L. Wald at the New York Times.


SCOTUSwatch


Oral arguments in NLRB v. Noel Canning didn't seem to go well for the White House.  "Seeming a bit troubled about allowing the Senate to have an on-off switch on the president’s power to temporarily fill vacant government posts, the Supreme Court on Monday indicated that it may yet allow just that. Even some of the Justices whose votes the government almost certainly needs to salvage an important presidential power were more than skeptical. A ninety-three-minute hearing ... was ... a ... exploration of whether history or constitutional text should govern the extent of that power. On balance, text seemed to be winning out, and that appeared to favor the Senate more than the White House."  Lyle Denniston at SCOTUSblog.

In the case of appointments, originalism is a pretty useless standard.  "The Court has never before applied its interpretive gloss to the Recess Appointments Clause and thus is deprived of its usual tools in answering these vital questions about how the other two branches relate to one another. As a result …  our Founding-era past will predictably exert an almost gravitational pull over the minds of the Justices … But there are no easy or clean answers to be found. We learn that the terms of the Recess Appointments Clause were ambiguous in the eighteenth century, just as they are now … The Founding generation itself was deeply divided on the question."  Carl Cecere at SCOTUSblog.

Appointment power to be the next test case for the conservative activism theory.  "Eliminating the recess power altogether, however (as the D.C. Circuit decision did), would turn a constitutionally prescribed presidential power into a dead letter, something that the Supreme Court should be extremely reluctant to endorse. Moreover, if the Supremes do affirm the lower court ruling, or that part of it, we can permanently retire the argument over whether the current conservative justices are 'activists.' Surely, reading a clause out of the Constitution in defiance of practice going back to the very first Congresses would qualify."  Jonathan Bernstein at Bloomberg.

A victory for pro-choice abortion rights.  "The Supreme Court has declined to take up the state of Arizona’s ban on abortion at 20 weeks … That’s good news for pro-choice advocates, who had successfully argued at the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals that the law violated the standard set by Roe v. Wade ... The Court’s choice to let that decision stand means that Arizona’s ban, which drew the line two weeks earlier than other states with such bans did, won’t be enforced, nor will a similar one in Idaho, which also falls in the Ninth Circuit."  Irin Carmon at MSNBC.

The Court denied release of Bin Laden photos.  "The U.S. Supreme Court refused to order the release of photos of Osama bin Laden’s corpse and burial at sea, leaving intact the CIA’s classification of those images as top-secret … The Obama administration and Central Intelligence Agency said release of the photos would damage national security by inflaming tensions overseas and leading to retaliatory attacks against Americans. The lawsuit involved 52 images of bin Laden after he was killed during a raid by U.S. special operations forces on his compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, in May 2011."  Greg Stohr at Bloomberg.


The States


Blue and red states are wildly divergent.  "These days, when residents cross the bridge, they enter starkly different political territories. Since Republicans in Wisconsin took control … and since Democrats gained full dominance in Minnesota last year, people here have watched essential elements of their daily lives — their savings plans, job expectations, personal relationships and health insurance — veer apart … Thirty-six states are now controlled entirely by a single political party, the largest number in six decades … One-party control has turned state capitals into feverish testing grounds for the nation’s most-debated policies, on the left and even more so on the right."  Monica Davey at the New York Times.


West Virginia


Chemical cleanup continues.  "Tap water service in this region should be restored in the next few days as a chemical that tainted the supply has begun to dissipate after causing widespread worry and inconvenience since Thursday, officials said Sunday. Authorities said tests Sunday showed the situation improving and that they were moving to the next stage of the cleanup. The chemical had been tested at below one part per million, an amount deemed safe, for 24 hours and it was no longer detected at the water treatment plant, which is downstream from the site of the spill, officials said Sunday. But they weren't ready to allow people to use or drink the water."  Eric Morath and Jennifer Levitz at the Wall Street Journal.

Knowing me, you should've guessed this was coming - so, more regulation, please?  "The site of a West Virginia chemical spill that contaminated the water supply for 300,000 people operated largely outside government oversight, highlighting gaps in regulations ... The storage facility … was subject to almost no state and local monitoring, interviews and records show. The industrial chemical that leaked into the river, 4-methylcyclohexane methanol, isn't closely tracked by federal programs. A state regulator had said earlier that, before last week's spill, environmental inspectors hadn't visited the site since 1991."  Alexandra Berzon and Kris Maher at the Wall Street Journal.





Wisconsin


Here's one (unethical) way to get around a court ruling.  "After Michael Eisenga, a wealthy GOP donor and Wisconsin business owner, failed to convince several courts to lower his child support payments, he came up with an inventive plan B—he recruited a Republican state legislator to rewrite Wisconsin law in his favor. A set of documents unearthed ... by the Wisconsin State Journal shows Eisenga and his lawyer … supplying detailed instructions to Republican state Rep. Joel Kleefisch on how to word legislation capping child support payments from the wealthy."  Molly Redden at Mother Jones.



International


Global


The stats of global religion.  Pew Research - Religion and Public Life Project.

Three positive developments for the world's poorest from 2013.  Isobel Coleman at the Council on Foreign Relations.  

Yet another shakeup in the Catholic Church.  "Pope Francis took one of his biggest steps yet to reshape the Roman Catholic Church's hierarchy by appointing a batch of new cardinals hailing largely from the developing world. The pontiff's choices—including priests from Asia, two African countries and Haiti, marks a departure from his predecessor Pope Benedict XVI's tendency to appoint cardinals from Western countries and resumes a decades long push by earlier popes to tilt the College of Cardinals away from the rich world. The shift reflects both the Catholic world's changing demographics and Pope Francis's emphasis on the pastoral mission of the church."  Deborah Ball, Liam Moloney, and Tamara Audi at the Wall Street Journal.

The new authoritarian media strategy.  "Governments ... use state-controlled media to help themselves stay in power … through selective censorship of political expression and by using state media to influence crucial audiences ... Most authoritarian regimes today do not seek total domination of all means of mass communication. Instead, they want 'effective media control' ... to convey their strength and puff up claims to legitimacy while undermining potential alternatives … Aspirations to economic modernization won’t work alongside wholesale repression and the restrictions on information flow that this would require. No smart authoritarian wants to rule the next North Korea."  Robert Orttung and Christopher Walker at the Washington Post.


Africa


M-23 is back again.  "Congolese rebel group M23 appears to be regrouping just two months after the Tutsi-led insurgency was defeated by Congolese troops and U.N. peacekeepers, the top U.N. official in the Democratic Republic of Congo said on Monday. Martin Kobler told the U.N. Security Council there were 'credible reports of emerging M23 activities in Ituri in northeastern Congo' and called on the Congolese government to speed up the disarmament, demobilization and reintegration of ex-M23 fighters, who ended their 20-month revolt in November."  Michelle Nichols at Reuters.

The new CAR president is attempting to crack down on religious violence.  "Central African Republic's new interim leader ordered the deployment of hundreds more troops in the capital ... with instructions to shoot troublemakers 'at point blank range' in a bid to end months of religious violence. Fighting, attacks on mosques and the looting of Muslim-owned shops have persisted in Bangui since the resignation of rebel leader-turned-president Michel Djotodia last Friday."  Paul-Marin Ngoupana at Reuters.

This is disgusting.  "Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan signed a bill on Monday that criminalizes same-sex relationships, defying Western pressure over gay rights and provoking criticism from the United States. The bill, which contains penalties of up to 14 years in prison and bans gay marriage, same-sex 'amorous relationships' and membership of gay rights groups, was passed by the national assembly last May … While European countries, most recently France, have moved to offer same-sex couples the same legal rights enjoyed by heterosexuals, many African countries are seeking to tighten laws against homosexuality."  Felix Onuah at Reuters.


Asia


India has eradicated polio.  "More than 50 years since Jonas Salk discovered the first successful polio vaccine, the disease persists in developing countries. According to the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, 372 cases were reported in 2013, up from 223 in 2012. So it's encouraging that India — which had 741 cases as recently as 2009 — appears to have finally eradicated the illness, with the last reported case occurring three years ago."  Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog.

But their prime minister is fleeing, stage right.  "As news flashes go, Manmohan Singh's Jan. 3 announcement that he intends to 'hand over the baton to a new prime minister' was hardly earth shattering. Given his unpopularity after nearly a decade in office -- Singh's favorability rating hovers at about 5 percent -- the 81-year-old already looked as likely to snag a third term as to win India a medal for skiing at the Sochi Olympics."  Sadanand Dhume at Foreign Policy.

Asia's new taste for whiskey.  "The news that Japanese whiskey giant Suntory is purchasing Jim Beam is still raising some eyebrows … The move seems aimed at meeting a growing global thirst for whiskey, particularly among affluent Asians. Singapore, for instance, is now the world’s largest consumer of Scotch, at a staggering 13 bottles per person per year ... By some measures, India is now the world’s largest whiskey market overall, consuming 150 million 9-liter cases per year."  Joshua Keating at Slate.


Middle East


RIP Ariel Sharon. "Ariel Sharon, one of the most influential figures in Israel’s history, a military commander and political leader who at the height of his power redrew the country’s electoral map, only to suffer a severe stroke from which he never recovered, died Saturday in a hospital near Tel Aviv. He was 85."  Ethan Bronner at the New York Times.

Sharon's funeral.  "The funeral, attended by leaders from Israel and around the world, began ... with an official ceremony at the Knesset, where Sharon's body lay in state on Sunday. Keynote speeches were delivered at the ceremony by President Shimon Peres, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Vice President Joe Biden. Other world dignitaries who arrived in Israel for a day of ceremonies include Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, former British Prime Minister and Quartet envoy to the region Tony Blair, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Czech Prime Minister Jiří Rusnok."  Haaretz.

The quote that best explains Ariel Sharon.  "It is worth attempting to understand the worldview of Sharon … Here is that quote: 'Today, the Jews are in less danger because Israel is strong. But would I rely on the world with respect to the Jews? No. I don’t rely on anyone in this matter.' … It does reveal much about him: an almost pathological concern with security (one that some see as appropriate, others as at best counterproductive), a direct connection between Israeli politics and the history of the Jewish people, a refusal to trust anyone and a realpolitik tenacity that may have driven much of the actions that shaped his legacy."  Max Fisher at WorldViews.



Science


Anti-GMO policies are pointless and counterproductive.  "GMOs ... are neither less safe nor less 'natural' … Humans have been engaging in 'genetic modification' through selection and hybridization for millennia … Everyday varieties of corn, oats, pumpkin, wheat, black currants, tomatoes, and potatoes … could not exist in nature … No cases of harm to humans or disruption to ecosystems have been documented … The GMO classification has encouraged unscientific regulatory approaches that are not commensurate with the level of risk, and that …  inhibit agricultural innovation that could reduce strain on the natural environment and enhance global food security."  Henry I. Miller at Project Syndicate.

On snow-diving foxes.  Robert Krulwich + Video at NPR.

Debunking myths about dingos.  Sarah Zielinski at Science News.

Looking inside the Tarantula Nebula.  Science 2.0 



Miscellaneous


Now I've heard everything.  "Iran's semi-official news outlets have something of a reputation for taking conspiracy theorism to the next level … On Sunday, the hard-line semi-official Fars News dropped one of its biggest bombshells yet: The United States government has been secretly run by a 'shadow government' of space aliens since 1945. Yes, space aliens. The alien government is based out of Nevada and had previously run Nazi Germany. It adds, for timeliness, that the controversial NSA programs are actually a tool for the aliens to hide their presence on Earth and their secret agenda for global domination. This is all asserted as incontrovertible fact with no caveats."  Max Fisher at WorldViews.

What Niagara Falls looks like without water.  Alexis C. Madrigal at the Atlantic.

Beowulf in 100 tweets.  Elaine Treharne at Text Technologies.

The first elected Pastafarian.  "Christopher Schaeffer, a Pastafarian minister, was sworn into the Pomfret, N.Y. Town Council last week wearing a colander, the Observer reported on Friday. Schaeffer is a member of the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster, a group founded by an atheist in 2005 that has adopted the spaghetti strainer as its symbol."  Ashley Alman at the Huffington Post.


Monday, January 13, 2014

Friday: 1/10/14


The Economy


The Overview


Glass half full.  "Record exports and the smallest trade deficit in four years. Healthier consumer spending, including the strongest annual increase in automobile sales since 2007, spurred by a booming stock market and an improving housing sector. And a slow but steady pickup in job creation that has pushed unemployment to its lowest level since 2008. The confluence of all these forces in recent weeks has prompted economists to sharply revise their expectations for growth in late 2013 and early 2014, and prompted hopes that a more sustained economic expansion has finally arrived."  Nelson D. Schwartz at the New York Times.

Better than Bush.  "Now that we have 12 months of job data, we can ask a different question: how did 2013 shape up? In all, the U.S. economy added 2.186 million jobs last year, while the private sector created 2.213 million. Looking back over the last couple of decades, that means when it comes to the overall economy, 2013 was the best year for jobs in the United States since 2005 and the second best year since 1999. That’s right: last year, the economy created more jobs than seven of the eight years Bush/Cheney was in office. This is not to say 2013 was a banner year for jobs; it’s more the result of the job landscape struggling badly during the Bush/Cheney era."  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

The unemployment rate is improving - for the wrong reasons.  "The headline unemployment rate number fell 0.3 points to 6.7% This is the lowest unemployment rate since October 2008, one month after Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy. The number of adults reported as unemployed fell 490,000, also reaching a low not seen since October 2008. Unfortunately, less than a third of the decline can be traced to an increase in the number of adults who say they are employed. The other two-thirds was due to a drop in the size of the labor force … Over the past 12 months the U.S. labor force has shrunk almost 550,000 and the labor force participation rate has dropped 0.8 percentage points."  Gary Burtless at Brookings.

Three theories explaining the decline of the labor force.  Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.

On the lack of economic consensus in Congress.  "The contention over unemployment insurance and the minimum wage reflects the larger problem in American politics. Rather than discussing what we need to do to secure our future, we are spending most of our energy re-litigating the past. A substantial part of the conservative movement is now determined to blow up the national consensus that has prevailed since the Progressive and New Deal eras. The consensus envisions a capitalist economy tempered by government intervention to reduce inequities and soften the cruelties that the normal workings of the market can sometimes inflict."  E.J. Dionne Jr. at the Washington Post.


Federal Reserve


Breaking another glass ceiling, with a difficult task ahead.  "The Senate confirmed Janet L. Yellen as the chairwoman of the Federal Reserve on Monday, marking the first time that a woman will lead the country’s central bank in its 100-year history. As a Fed official, Ms. Yellen, 67, has been an influential proponent of the Fed’s extraordinary measures to revive the economy, even though interest rates are already close to zero. But as chairwoman, Ms. Yellen will face the arduous task of overseeing the gradual unwinding of those measures, despite an uncomfortably high unemployment rate of 7 percent and subdued inflation."  Annie Lowrey at the New York Times.


Housing


The most successful housing program that you've never heard of.  "Of all of the various government housing programs run by various federal agencies -- Federal Housing Administration, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Housing and Urban Development and, of course, Fannie Mae -- HARP is the most effective and efficient one out there. Odds are you have never even heard of the Home Affordable Refinance Program. And that is a shame, because it is doing what it was designed to do: Help qualified homeowners refinance underwater homes and avoid foreclosure."  Barry Ritholtz at Bloomberg.


SNAP


The health consequences of SNAP cuts.  "Doctors have a message for congressional lawmakers inching toward a compromise farm bill that would cut food stamps by nine billion dollars: It’s a terrible idea. “If you’re interested in saving health care costs, the dumbest thing you can do is cut nutrition,” Dr. Deborah Frank of Boston Medical Center explained … Doctors and researchers say that additional cuts on the horizon could increase the incidence of medical problems stemming in part from food insecurity, particularly diabetes and its related conditions."  Sy Mukherjee at Think Progress.

5 facts about SNAP.  Fred Dews at Brookings.


Unemployment Benefits


The fight to extend unemployment benefits continues.  "Negotiations over the extension of unemployment benefits for the long-term jobless suffered a major setback in the Senate … as competing plans to pay the costs of the extension began to emerge ... Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid ... scheduled a showdown vote on the new proposal for next Monday. Democrats need at least five GOP senators to cross the aisle and support the plan, but they appear to lack the support of several of the key six Republicans who previously supported advancing the bill and have now said they are very likely to vote against the new proposal."  Paul Kane at the Washington Post.

Dems are skeptical of horse-trading for the extension - for good reason.  "Republicans are throwing a wrench into the debate over unemployment benefits by insisting that spending cuts offset any extension of federal aid for the long-term jobless … For Democrats, setting a precedent that federal long-term unemployment benefits must be paid for opens up a can of trouble. It means that the benefits are no longer driven by economic and employment conditions but by the condition of the federal budget. Generally, tight-employment economies translate to tight budgets, which means it becomes infinitely harder for lawmakers to approve additional benefits."  Fawn Johnson at the National Journal.

Reid's take-it-or-leave-it approach may harm Senate passage.  "Mr. Reid's move, though intended as a compromise, didn't put the legislation on a clear road to passage. Republicans who might join in backing the bill said they were enraged that Mr. Reid was pushing it through the Senate without allowing them to offer amendments of their own during floor debate … Even before Republicans could engage on the substance of the bill, they were angered when Mr. Reid blocked any further amendments—a strategy that leaders of both political parties have used, but which has drawn increasing fire from Republicans during Mr. Reid's tenure as Senate leader."  Janet Hook at the Wall Street Journal.

And the House is about as useless as usual. "President Barack Obama’s desire to renew emergency jobless benefits is running into a familiar avalanche of indifference: the House. House Republicans are showing little appetite, urgency and interest in extending the program, and are hinting that they are content to let the issue disappear if the Senate fails to pass its own legislation."  Jake Sherman at Politico.


War on Poverty


Here's where we stand, thanks to the GOP.  "What hasn’t changed is the ... Republican economic agenda in either the long run or the short run ... The near-term agenda remains completely unaltered. Republicans remain unified in their desire to cut food stamps and end emergency unemployment benefits unless offset by other cuts to domestic spending. Nearly all support ongoing state-based campaigns to deny Medicaid coverage to uninsured people too poor to qualify for tax credits to buy private insurance. The awkwardness of the current moment is that Republicans have yet to agree on any kind of alternative policy framework for anti-poverty policy."  Jonathan Chait at New York Magazine.  

The War on Poverty worked, and the GOP is wrong.  "The Great Society brought federal billions to schools, made college possible for millions of kids from modest means, educated innumerable doctors, and so much more … The political problem is that Americans don’t know about or focus on these successes. They just know that we tried, and poverty still exists. Thus has the 'war' frame ended up being extremely handy for conservatives, who will always be able to point to the existence of poor people and therefore to make the claim that the whole thing has been a failure."  Michael Tomasky at the Daily Beast.

Anti-poverty programs have been quite successful during the recession.  "Yet poverty still exists. The official measure stands at 15 percent … This benchmark really gets to the question of the effectiveness of anti-poverty policies — absent those policies, the 2012 rate would be 29 percent, meaning that the value of food stamps, unemployment benefits, the earned-income tax credit, housing subsidies and more lifted 13 percent of the population — 40 million people — out of poverty that year … The American safety net is actively helping millions of economically disadvantaged families, and we should protect and improve it."  Jared Bernstein at Economix.  

We can't fully overcome poverty until we overcome inequality.  "And if progress against poverty has ... been disappointingly slow — which it has — blame rests not with the poor but with a changing labor market, one that no longer offers good wages to ordinary workers … The bottom third of the American work force has seen little or no rise in inflation-adjusted wages since the early 1970s ... This wage stagnation, not social decay, is the reason poverty has proved so hard to eradicate … The problem of poverty has become part of the broader problem of rising income inequality, of an economy in which all the fruits of growth seem to go to a small elite, leaving everyone else behind."  Paul Krugman at the New York Times.


Miscellaneous


This can't be good.  "Even dollar stores are getting too expensive for low-income shoppers. Family Dollar Stores Inc. ... said Thursday that it has to lower prices and ditch a strategy of using promotions to woo customers … The tactical shift led Family Dollar to cut its profit outlook for the year and highlights the continuing pressure on lower-income shoppers, who continue to suffer from tepid job growth, higher payroll taxes and the loss of government assistance programs like food stamps."  Paul Ziobro at the Wall Street Journal.

The Target hacking scandal gets worse.  "Target has updated its estimate of the number of customers affected by a massive data breach last month, saying that the personal information of as many as 70 million people was compromised as a result of the hack. The type of information breached now includes names, phone numbers and postal and e-mail addresses, according to a Target blog post. The new figure is separate from the 40-million-person breach Target announced last month. Not everyone who was affected by the previously-reported breach may be affected by this new revelation, though there is likely to be overlap between the two groups."  Brian Fung at the Switch.



Chris Christie


The story thus far.  "A contrite New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie apologized Thursday for a scandal that threatens his political future, announcing that he had fired a senior aide and banished his top campaign adviser for their roles in days of traffic jams orchestrated to punish a small-city Democratic mayor. Christie ... insisted he had no involvement in shutting down a pair of access lanes to the heavily trafficked George Washington Bridge over four days in early September. The Republican governor said he was 'blindsided' by this week’s release of e-mails and text messages detailing his office’s role in the plot to create severe gridlock in Fort Lee, N.J."  Robert Costa and Philip Rucker at the Washington Post.

The end of Christie 2016?  "His scandals would make him vulnerable in a general-election matchup … Why would they circle around a candidate teeming with corruption scandals, when they could instead nominate a more conservative alternative with a more attractive personal image? … Christie faces enormous, interrelated vulnerabilities … Christie's post-Sandy personal embrace of Obama … issue deviations on Obamacare and guns, and his potentially large number of scandals look like separate problems. To a Republican voter, they are many aspects of the same thing: a man who can't be trusted."  Jonathan Chait at New York Magazine.

The governor's political assets are becoming weaker.  "His longer-term political problem is likely to be from his own party, where the scandal is giving a legion of under-the-radar Christie skeptics room to criticize the governor … The other factor that fueled the Christie boomlet ... was a perception that he's the most electable Republican presidential candidate … His broad campaign coalition, winning over Hispanics and women, was viewed as a model for successful national candidates to emulate. If Christie's sky-high popularity begins to fray, he loses the very assets that propelled him into the national conversation."  Josh Kraushaar at the National Journal.

10 things you should know about Bridge-Gate.  Aaron Blake at the Fix.

The traffic study excuse is about as incoherent as it gets.  "Traffic studies, which forecast the effect of new developments or changes in roadway configurations on the flow of vehicles, can sometimes be political documents. Usually, the consultants who prepare the studies are paid by the people building the project for which they're required, so they have every incentive to show the project won't have any noticeable impact. In this case, however, the traffic study should never have been a viable excuse -- anybody who knows anything about them would realize that a traffic study could never turn a bridge into a parking lot, because traffic studies rarely involve actually doing anything to traffic."  Lydia DePillis at Wonkblog.

Maybe it wasn't about the gubernatorial election - toward an alternate theory of the Christie scandal.  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.



















Politics


Abortion


GOP anti-abortion tactic is super useless, according to the data.  Shocker.  "Forced ultrasound laws have become a popular tactic at the state level ... Abortion opponents claim this step is necessary because, if women have the opportunity to see an image of their fetus, they’ll suddenly change their mind about ending a pregnancy. But the actual scientific evidence ... doesn’t back up that claim. According to a new study published in the journal Obstetrics & Gynecology ... the vast majority of women who seek out abortion services have already made up their mind. Looking an images of an ultrasound doesn’t sway them."  Tara Culp-Ressler at Think Progress.


Congress


Don't blame polarization for gridlock.  "Pronouncements about the 'polarized' electorate as the cause of stalemate seem too simplistic … 'Polarization doesn’t mean the public is evenly divided in its support for both parties’ positions. On many important issues, including raising the minimum wage, extending unemployment benefits, raising taxes on upper income Americans as part of a deficit reduction deal, and increasing spending on education and infrastructure, substantial majorities of voters, including large numbers of Republicans, support the Democratic agenda. The gridlock in Congress is largely the result of polarization that is asymmetric.'"  Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.

Well, this is a new milestone.  And not a good one.  "For the first time in history, more than half the members of the House and Senate are now millionaires, according to a new analysis of financial disclosure reports filed last year. The median net worth for lawmakers in the House and Senate was $1,008,767 — up 4.4 percent, according to the analysis, conducted by the nonprofit Center for Responsive Politics, which examines the influence of money on politics in Washington. Over all, at least 268 of the 534 current members of Congress had an average net worth of $1 million or more in 2012."  Eric Lipton at the New York Times.


DOD


Helicopter truck.  I repeat, helicopter truck.  "It's a lot easier to 'leave no man behind' when the rescue crew is robotic. Advanced Tactics, an El Segundo-based firm, plans to test a remotely operated, transforming, flying, driving evacuation vehicle early this year. It's not quite a drone, but it's not really a truck or a helicopter either. It's called the Black Night Transformer ... The transformation is relatively subtle—eight rotors, four on each side, will spring out for takeoff, fold in for driving through tighter streets, and tilt forward in the air for faster flight."  Kelsey D. Atherton at Popular Science.

Navy drones sound pretty cool.  "The Navy has been seeking … a way to do underwater what the Air Force has been doing in the sky: prowl stealthily for long periods of time, and gather the kind of data that could turn the tide in war. The Navy’s goal is to send an underwater drone, which it calls a 'glider,' on a roller-coaster-like path for up to five years. A fleet of them could swarm an enemy coastline, helping the Navy hunt down minefields and target enemy submarines. Unlike their airborne cousins, Navy gliders are not powered by aviation fuel. Instead, they draw energy from the ocean’s thermocline, a pair of layers of warm water near the surface and chillier water below."  Mark Thompson at Time.

Um… This is concerning.  "Two missileers from the 341st Missile Wing at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Mont., have been implicated in a narcotics investigation ... The incident is the latest in a string of embarrassments for the Air Force’s nuclear missile force ... The former commander of 20th Air Force in charge of the nation’s nuclear missiles … was removed from command after a series of drunken incidents ... RAND Corp. last fall released the findings of an Air Force-commissioned study that found deep morale issues in the nuclear missile force, including burnout and a court-martial rate among the missile force in 2011 and 2012 that was more than twice as high as the overall Air Force rate."  Andrew Tilghman and Brian Everstine at the Air Force Times.


Elections


The lie that is the 'independent.'  "You won’t see a large number of successful independent candidates next November, nor will many Democratic or Republican candidates distance themselves from their own party … Despite the apparent rise in independent identification, Americans are actually becoming more rather than less partisan in their behavior. Yes, even 'independents.' … When pressed, the vast majority of Americans who initially identify themselves as political independents acknowledge that they lean toward one party or the other. Almost three-fourths of independents surveyed by Gallup during 2013 indicated that they leaned toward one of the two major parties."  Alan Abramowitz at Politico.

A growing number of liberals.  "Liberal identification edged up to its highest level since Gallup began regularly measuring ideology ... in 1992 … Americans' perceptions of their political views -- if not the views themselves -- are undergoing unmistakable change ... Now, the plurality of Democrats consider themselves to be politically liberal, whereas a decade ago, Democrats were most likely to say they were moderate. That could be because Democrats are now more comfortable calling themselves 'liberal' ... even if their ... views on issues are similar. But it could also reflect an evolution in their views to favor more traditionally liberal issue positions."  Jeffrey M. Jones at Gallup.

Americans may not love their own political parties, but they hate the other side. "Political scientist Alan Abramowitz … finds that although voters do not identify with their own political party more strongly than they did in the late 1970s, the intensity of their preference for their own party has surged during that period. The reason is clear: Disapproval of the opposing party has risen sharply. In 1978, almost 30% of the electorate felt as warm about the opposing party as about their own. By 2012, fewer than 15% felt that way, while the percentage of voters expressing extreme antipathy to the opposing party tripled." William Galston at the Wall Street Journal.

Embracing Obamacare.  "The rollout of Obamacare in Kentucky may represent the most interesting experiment in the politics of health care in the country right now. Dem governor Steve Beshear is perhaps the most outspoken defender of the Affordable Care Act in the south. This, in a deep red state where the reform known as 'Obamacare' is deeply unpopular; where the leading foe of the President’s agenda is on the ballot this year; and where the need for reform is urgent … Beshear offered fellow Dems ... some startling advice: Stand up for Obamacare because it’s the right thing to do. What’s more, Beshear insists, Republicans are wrong: the health law will be a political positive for Dems next fall."  Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.

Battle lines are being drawn in Hawaii.  "The biggest test of this cycle comes in Hawaii, where Sen. Brian Schatz (D) is fighting to keep the seat Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) appointed him to over the dying wishes of Sen. Daniel Inouye (D). The revered senator’s deathbed request was that Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D) take his place … Now, Hanabusa is giving up her safe seat to mount a campaign against Schatz, and she has the enthusiastic blessing of Inouye’s family and his widow, Irene Hirano Inouye … Whoever prevails though, Republicans have no chance of winning in the heavily Democratic Hawaii."  Jessica Taylor at the Hill


Foreign Policy


The Iran deal moves forward.  "Iran and a group of six world powers moved closer on Friday to carrying out the nuclear agreement reached in November, with the Iranian side saying all outstanding issues have been resolved. The agreement, which still requires final approval by all the governments, would temporarily halt some of Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for billions of dollars in sanctions relief."  Rick Gladstone at the New York Times.

US deploys military advisers to Somalia to fight Al-Shabab.  "The U.S. military secretly deployed a small number of trainers and advisers to Somalia in October, the first time regular troops have been stationed in the war-ravaged country since 1993, when two helicopters were shot down and 18 Americans killed in the 'Black Hawk Down' disaster. A cell of U.S. military personnel has been in the Somali capital of Mogadishu to advise and coordinate operations with African troops fighting to wrest control of the country from the al-Shabab militia, an Islamist group whose leaders have professed loyalty to al-Qaeda, according to three U.S. military officials."  Craig Whitlock at the Washington Post.


Health


Obamacare will now cover breast cancer prevention drugs.  "Certain medications that are intended to prevent breast cancer will be fully covered under Obamacare, in new guidance set to be issued by the Department of Health and Human Services Thursday morning. Women at increased risk of breast cancer can receive so-called chemoprevention drugs, including tamoxifen and raloxifene, without a co-pay or other out-of-pocket expense."  Amanda Terkel at the Huffington Post.


LGBT Rights


Hey, House GOP - can we not do this?  Because this is unbelievably stupid. "A good chunk of the House Republican caucus has come up with an idea: DOMA, the sequel. Rep. Randy Weber (R-Texas) and 27 other Republicans have proposed legislation that would prevent the federal government from recognizing same-sex marriages for couples who live in states that do not permit these unions."  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

Federal government to recognize Utah marriages while the legal battles continue.  "The federal government will recognize the marriages of same-sex couples who married in Utah in recent week … Approximately 1,360 same-sex couples married between Dec. 20, 2013 — when U.S. District Court Judge Robert J. Shelby found the state’s ban on same-sex couples’ marriages to be unconstitutional — and this Monday, when the Supreme Court put new marriages of same-sex couples on hold pending the state’s appeal of Shelby’s ruling."  Chris Geldner at Buzzfeed


SCOTUSwatch


Everything you need to know about National Labor Relations Board v. Noel Canning.  Lyle Denniston at SCOTUSblog.

The impact of appointment powers.  "At issue is the scope of the president’s power under the Constitution’s 'Recess Appointments Clause,' through which the president can make temporary executive and judicial appointments during Senate recesses, without Senate confirmation … The loss of this important tool would profoundly alter the balance of power between the president and the Senate … A future Senate majority hostile to the president could dramatically impede the confirmation process for nominated executive officials and judges … As has been true throughout history, the Recess Appointments Clause thus plays an important role as a backstop to ensure functioning government."  Alicia Bannon and David Earley at the Brennan Center for Justice.

Conservative hypocrisy at its finest.  "Two authors of the Speaker’s brief … are certainly familiar with the recess appointments issue. After all, they argued the complete opposite in 2004, when they submitted a brief supporting the validity of President George W. Bush’s recess appointment of William Pryor ... Conservatives have not only switched their position, they have come out in force in an attempt to stymie President Obama’s ability to do his job … This hypocrisy and flip-flopping is all the more strange because ... it’s been conservatives … who have been pushing for a broad reading of powers granted to the President. That seems to have gone out the window with President Obama."  Elizabeth B. Wydra at the Constitutional Accountability Center.


Space


Everything you need to know about the International Space Station - and the decision to extend its lifespan.  Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.


The States








West Virginia








International


Global


Human trafficking isn't just for sex anymore.  "If most people think human trafficking is all about sexual exploitation, the mistake is understandable … As an International Labor Organization study found in 2012, more than three-quarters of trafficking victims in the global private economy are exploited for labor ... Much of this is tied to … the grim world of illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing. Vessels engaged in illegal, unregulated fishing not only steal precious food resources off the coasts of poor countries, engage in drug smuggling and damage marine ecosystems — they also prey on human beings, trapping workers on boats as slaves."  Mark P. Lagon at the Washington Post.

Global child marriage.  "International conventions prohibit child marriage and define eighteen as the age of adulthood. These laws are based on the argument that children and adolescents are not mature enough to make choices about marriage, and that marrying too young can lead to lasting emotional, physical, and psychological harm. Moreover, development experts say child marriage stunts girls' educational opportunities and income-earning prospects, and perpetuates poverty … Child marriage transcends regional and cultural boundaries. Across developing countries, an estimated one in three girls is married before turning eighteen, and one in nine before fifteen."  The Council on Foreign Relations

Global obesity is mostly occurring in poor countries, not wealthy ones.  "A new report from the Britain-based Overseas Development Group on changing global diets finds that there are now more than twice as many overweight or obese people living in the developing world as in wealthy countries. Overall, the number of affected people in developing countries 'more than tripled from around 250 million people in 1980 to 904 million in 2008. By contrast, the number of people who were overweight or obese in high-income countries increased 1.7 times over the same period.'"  Joshua Keating at Slate.


Africa


Not all failing states imply genocide.  And that difference is important.  "When France decided to send soldiers to the Central African Republic … it did the right thing for the wrong reason … The country doesn’t face genocide; it is experiencing state collapse and limited intercommunal killings after a military takeover by a coalition of undisciplined militiamen … There haven’t been large-scale and systematic massacres, and the killings are driven by the contingencies of fear, not a deeply nurtured intent to destroy another ethnic group … Most important, if the label 'genocide' is readily applied to any situation of ethnic strife and governmental breakdown, it will lose its ... special moral force."  Alex de Waal at the New York Times.

The leaders of the CAR resign.  "Central African Republic's interim leaders caved in to international pressure and resigned on Friday after failing to halt inter-religious violence, prompting street celebrations but also questions over who would step in to take charge. The resignations of President Michel Djotodia and Prime Minister Nicolas Tiangaye came at a two-day summit of the Economic Community of Central African States (CEEAC) in neighboring Chad … Thousands of people have been killed and a million displaced since abuses by Djotodia's mainly Muslim rebels, known as Seleka, prompted the creation of Christian self-defense militia after he seized power in March."  Madjiasra Nako and Paul-Marin Ngoupana at Reuters.

And the EU is considering intervention.  "Draft plans for a European Union military mission in the Central African Republic envisage the deployment of hundreds of ground troops to buttress African and French forces struggling to prevent a bloodbath there, according to diplomats briefed on the proposal … While EU member states backed a similar mission to Mali last year in just a couple months, some EU diplomats have been more skeptical about the goals of this mission, suggesting it could take longer to reach consensus—if one is reached at all."  Laurence Norman at the Wall Street Journal.

The death toll in South Sudan is increasing.  "As fighting continued to rage across South Sudan on Thursday, a new estimate raised the death toll in the conflict significantly … The International Crisis Group said Thursday that the number of dead from the conflict was close to 10,000 people, a major increase from earlier estimates by the United Nations."  Nicholas Kulish at the New York Times.

Critical time for West African lions.  "Back in 2005, before the survey began, West African lions were believed to live in 21 different protected areas. But now a paper about the survey, published today in PLoS One, confirms that lions actually exist in just four of those sites. Worse still, the researchers estimate that the total population for West African lions is only about 400 animals, including fewer than 250 mature individuals of breeding age."  John R. Platt at Scientific American.


Asia


Thailand is a political powder keg.  "Thailand is no stranger to political turmoil but the current unrest looks set to be a protracted and especially bitter affair, raising the very real possibility of civil war. The stage seems set for a showdown between anti-government forces, backed by powerful vested interests, and a flawed but democratically elected government that enjoys mass support, especially in its rural heartlands. The conflict is being waged between rival factions of the elite, but also on class, ethnic and regional fronts. Predicting the future in Thai politics is futile, but more mass protests and bloodshed on the streets seem inevitable."  Mark Fenn at the Diplomat.


Middle East


Syria just became much more dangerous.  "Since early January 3, members of three militant fronts -- the largely nationalist Syrian Revolutionaries Front; the moderately Islamist Jaish al-Mujahideen; and the Salafist Islamic Front (IF) -- have engaged in sustained clashes with the extremist Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) … Hostilities have affected at least 40 separate municipalities … While ISIS appears to have been incurring strategic withdrawals ... its chief spokesman announced … that all individuals and groups linked to the Western-backed Syrian National Coalition (SNC) and the Syrian Military Council (SMC) were now legitimate targets, effectively amounting to a declaration of war."  Charles Lister at Foreign Policy.

The Bahrain national dialogue is off the rails once again.  "Bahrain's government has officially suspended national reconciliation talks, which had already been boycotted by the main opposition group. The Sunni-led government said it made the decision because of the refusal of groups from the country's Shia majority to attend the talks. The talks were intended to resolve tensions after the government repression of mass protests in 2011."  Bill Law at BBC.



Polisci


On polarization and partisan warfare.  "Party polarization and partisan warfare … Real analytic leverage can be brought to our understanding of how the current Senate operates and how it is evaluated if these dimensions are pulled apart … Texas ... reinforces the distinction ... Of the 279 votes that senators took in 2013, Ted Cruz and John Cornyn disagreed less than 9 percent of the time ... In terms of ideology, they are both very conservative ... The difference between my senators is that when John Cornyn shows up for a meeting with fellow senators, he brings a pad of paper and pencil and tries to figure out how to solve problems. Ted Cruz, on the other hand, brings a battle plan."  Sean Theriault at the Monkey Cage.



Science


In favor of uploading yourself to a supercomputer.  George Dvorsky at i09.

The BMI isn't a great scientific tool.  "Recent findings have cast doubt on the BMI’s value. For example, although the BMI is associated with fat mass in obese people, there is little or no association with that of normal or underweight individuals. At any given BMI score, fat mass varies widely, and other variables, such as gender or age, further distort findings ... Although the BMI is an unscientific way to characterize a person’s nutritional status, it is ... used as a measure of total body fat mass in medical practice and epidemiological studies … because it is easy to calculate and document."  Manfred J. Muller at Project Syndicate.



Miscellaneous


Policy lessons from the Beatles.  Neil Irwin at Wonkblog.

The U.S. population, as measured in Canadas.  Wonkblog.

Only in Texas.  "Moreau and the driver quickly grabbed can after can of the beer—Coor's Banquet, in case you were wondering—and dumped them onto the tire, which eventually exploded. But the beer extinguished the fire before it could spread to the rest of the truck."  Taylor Berman at Gawker.