Thursday: 5/23/13

Elections

Colorado

Tancredo is running again in Colorado - another politician not aiding the GOP's rebranding operation with Latinos. "Tom Tancredo is running for governor of Colorado, and will almost certainly be the front-runner for the GOP nomination ... For the many Republicans who believe de-toxifying the party’s image among Latino voters is central to its short- and long-term political prospects, a Tancredo run for statewide office is very bad news. ... Tancredo has major issues with levels of legal immigration, and insists the GOP and the conservative movement must advocate ... forced deportation—of millions of undocumented workers." Ed Kilgore at the Washington Monthly.

Virginia

Assessing the Virginia gubernatorial race. "Both Cuccinelli and soon-to-be Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffe, who is unopposed in the primary, have issues that could normally prove fatal in a Virginia general election. Yet one of them has to win ... Until now, I’d probably have given the edge to Cuccinelli. But in light of developments at the state Republican convention, I’d probably put a thumb on the scale for McAuliffe at this point." Sean Trende at RealClearPolitics.

The next LGBT rights battleground. "Welcome to the gay rights battleground of Virginia. ... A state that once leaned solidly to the center-right has become the newest focal point in the national debate over same-sex relationships. A gubernatorial race ... has grown even more contentious since ... Virginia Republicans nominated as their lieutenant governor ... a firebrand minister who has called gays 'very sick people psychologically' ... In a New South battleground where Democrats have traditionally won by carving out independent, non-partisan reputations, it’s Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe who’s most eager to keep gay rights on the political front burner." Alexander Burns at Politico.

The 20 craziest tweets from the GOP's candidate for lieutenant governor.  "If you were to put the dregs of conservative Internet comment sections into a pot, boil them down to their essence, then run the resulting product through a sieve to get it to its rawest, most pure form of vitriol, it would probably look something like E.W. Jackson’s Twitter feed."  Scott Keyes at Think Progress.

The Issues

Are background checks a wedge issue for 2014? "The Senate’s rejection of a popular expansion of background checks for firearms last month marked an abrupt end to the campaign for gun restrictions ... But the 'no' votes of 46 senators also represented a political gamble ... The risk may be significant, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Thirty five percent of registered voters say they could not support a candidate who voted against expanding background checks at gun shows and on the Internet — even if they agreed with him or her on other issues. By comparison, 14 percent of voters would rule out a candidate who voted for expanded checks." Scott Clement and Sean Sullivan at the Fix.

Miscellaneous

Dems have an edge on the generic ballot.  "It was therefore interesting to see the new Washington Post/ABC News poll ask the generic-ballot question: 'If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your congressional district?' ... Democrats lead Republicans on the generic ballot by eight points, 48% to 40%. ... I remain skeptical of House Dems being able to pick up a net gain of 17 seats ... but so long as they enjoy an advantage this large over the GOP, it's at least possible."  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

The rural/urban divide and the House of Representatives. "The rural/urban divide in American presidential politics is pronounced, and it extends to the U.S. House.Generally speaking, Republicans win the districts that are geographically large, and Democrats win the districts that are geographically small. ... This clustering becomes readily apparent with just a cursory glance at a map of House results. Based on U.S. census data, the 234 Republican House members represent districts that cover four-fifths (80%) of the United States’ land mass, while the 201 Democrats in the House hold just about 20% of the country’s land. " Kyle Kondik at Sabato's Crystal Ball.

War on Terror

Obama's Speech and Future Policy

The 4 key points of Obama's counterterrorism speech.  John Hudson at Foreign Policy.

And here's the entire transcript.  Wonkblog. 

Some GOP responses are less than productive...  "Obama’s ... counter-terrorism policy ... marked a win for al-Qaeda, according to Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA).  ... 'Rather than continuing successful counterterrorism activities, we are changing course with no clear operational benefit. We knew five years ago that closing Guantanamo was a bad idea and would not work. Yet, today’s speech sends the message to Guantanamo detainees that if they harass the dedicated military personnel there enough, we will give in and send them home, even to Yemen. ... GITMO must stay open for business.'"  Zack Beauchamp at Think Progress.  

It's not just principles - it's policy.  "The president gave a ringing endorsement of an America that uses resilience and unity, rather than fear and profiling, as the fundamental touchstones of its security ... This view is broadly shared across the national security establishment. But how those touchstones translate into policy, and how they play out, looks dramatically different from the point of view of local police, Muslim Americans, telecoms companies or rural Yemenis."  Heather Hurlburt at US News and World Report.

Obama's counterterrorism policy, by the numbers.  Elias Groll at Foreign Policy.

The revamp is just like the 1990's.  "The new 'comprehensive counter-terrorism strategy' Obama laid out has three broad components: Targeted action against terrorists; Effective partnerships; and Diplomatic engagement and assistance.  These criteria suggest that the President is curtailing drone strikes by placing them alongside many other policies: expanding foreign aid ... and democracy promotion. ... U.S. strategy will evolve from just responding to terrorism to trying to preempt it with social and economic initiatives. ... If this sounds familiar, that’s because such policies largely defined American foreign policy during the 1990s."  Joshua Foust.

Drones

Americans aren't very concerned about drones.  "On drones writ large, most Americans just don't seem to care, and aren't paying attention to the news. Those who are paying attention mostly favor the program, which fits with the overall public support of using drones to kill non-US citizens overseas. The polling is more split on killing citizens in other counties, but it seems that more American support than oppose the policy."  Harry Enten in the Guardian.

The military tried to wrest control of the drone program away from President Obama.  And they failed.  "President Obama announced reforms that would dramatically ratchet down the administration’s drone program. But one thing that will not change... is Obama’s singular involvement in making individual kill decisions ... despite the fact that the military made an aggressive push to wrest back control over final targeting calls from the commander in chief. In fact, it is likely that Obama’s role in deciding who will die and who will be spared will actually increase over time."  Daniel Klaidman at the Daily Beast.

Politics

Energy

7 facts about carbon taxes - courtesy of the CBO.  Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.

GOP

The crazies and the rest.  "Tea Party lawmakers have ... decided that they no longer have any obligation to engage in basic governing. ... The fact that McCain has now denounced their antics — as did Susan Collins ... in such harsh terms suggests that allowing the Tea Party ... to continue calling the shots may be increasingly untenable. This poses a very simple test for Republicans who like to think of themselves as moderate. How many of them will do what McCain and Collins have done and call out this lunacy among their far right colleagues? ... The post policy nihilism that has taken over large swaths of the GOP is the real reason compromise in Washington has become impossible."  Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.

I don't even...  "Pennsylvania’s Republican Governor Tom Corbett seems unusually proud that his Administration has no Latinos in it ... Corbett, asked at a Philadelphia forum hosted by the Spanish-language newspaper ALDIA News Media if he had any Latinos serving in his administration, responded that he did not.  'No, we do not have any staff members in there,' he said. 'If you can find us one, please let us know.' ... Corbett is already in serious re-election trouble. This is unlikely to help."  Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway. 

Health

Small business vs. contraceptive coverage - and some rather specious judicial reasoning.  "Religiously devout business owners are waging a broad rebellion against providing their employees with contraceptive coverage, bringing dozens of lawsuits that seem certain to land the issue before the Supreme Court.  The company owners say their religious beliefs take precedence over a new federal requirement, contained in President Obama’s Affordable Care Act, that they give employees insurance that covers contraceptives."  Robert Barnes in the Washington Post.

The rise of health IT.  "Substantial numbers of doctors and hospitals are now using electronic health records (EHRs) to provide better coordinated care, federal health officials reported Wednesday. The Health and Human Services (HHS) Department said that EHR use by doctors rose from 17 percent to more than 50 percent between 2008 and this year.  The rise was even more dramatic among hospitals, from 9 percent up to more than 80 percent using EHRs."  Elise Viebeck at the Hill.

Immigration

The hunt for Senate votes is on.  "Getting immigration reform to the Senate floor ... was the easy part. Many of the almost two dozen Republicans identified as possible supporters by the Gang of Eight are demanding changes that would make the bill significantly more conservative. ... Go too far ... and liberal Democrats ... begin to pull away.  Meanwhile, a handful of conservative Democrats, who have been asked to cast several tough votes this year already, won’t commit to the bill unless they secure many of the same fixes that Republicans are seeking."  Carrie Brown and Manu Raju in Politico.

The Senate and House might clash over border security.  "Reflecting the concern of many House and Senate conservatives, Goodlatte said he was not convinced the Gang bill would sufficiently secure the border. The Senate legislation requires a series of security benchmarks before undocumented immigrants can transition into a provisional status and, a decade later, obtain a green card.  But for a swath of Republicans, that’s not a strong enough trigger. In the House ... negotiators have settled on a trigger that would halt the legalization process if E-Verify is not up and running in five years."  Seung Kim at Politico.

And the House is wrestling with healthcare.  Again.  "A key House Republican negotiator on immigration is warning Democrats that the health care law – a favorite boogeyman of the GOP – could be the downfall of comprehensive immigration reform. ... House Democratic leaders are uneasy with the idea of blocking undocumented immigrants from accessing publicly-subsidized care ... Republicans, however, are insisting that no public dollars ... will fund the tab for health coverage for the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants."  Seung Kim at Politico.

Nominations

Hey, the Senate finally did something on judicial nominations!  But ... not enough.  "The Senate voted unanimously ... to confirm President Obama’s nominee to the second most powerful court in the country. The 97-0 vote to make Sri Srinivasan a judge on the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals gives the White House an important victory. ... Srinivasan will be the first ever Indian-American appellate court judge. ... No judge has been confirmed to it [the DC Appeals Court] since 2006 due to Democratic and Republican filibusters. Even after Srinivasan’s confirmation, three of 11 active seats remain vacant."  Sahil Kapur at Talking Points Memo.

Scandals

Why the root causes of the recent IRS and AP scandals won't be fixed.  "Unfortunately, for those who would like to see these policy problems resolved, the wrong party is angry about them and the wrong party is complacent. ... We have a party eager to exploit scandal and one that has plausible (if dormant) solutions to the underlying problems. They’re just not the same party."  Ezra Klein at Bloomberg.

But maybe we can resolve some of the problems in a bipartisan manner.  "A bipartisan group of House members advocated for a shield law Wednesday to protect the press in light of two recent cases in which the Justice Department obtained journalists’ records."  Tarini Parti at Politico.

Are conservatives the real cause of the IRS scandal?  "When you take a step back from the IRS scandal, there does appear to be something slightly sinister going on. Except that the scheming is on the right and not the left. Since the Republican House takeover in 2010, conservatives have laid the groundwork for a cynical two-step: First, squeeze funding for government programs, making it harder for civil servants to do their jobs. Then, when the inevitable screw-up comes, use it as further justification for cuts. Against this backdrop, the IRS scandal looks like only the latest step in the conservative long-game."  Noam Scheiber at the New Republic.

It probably isn't Obama's fault, despite Boehner's assertions.  "Speaker John Boehner ... said he believed it was 'inconceivable' that President Obama did not learn sooner about the Internal Revenue Service's political targeting of Tea Party groups.  He keeps using that word, but I do not think it means what he thinks it means.  It really isn't inconceivable at all. The president is the chief executive of a very large federal bureaucracy, filled with all kinds of departments and agencies. He's also the president during a time of war and economic crises, so it stands to reason that Obama doesn't have a lot of time to micromanage a division of an IRS office in Cincinnati."  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

FAQ: Everything you need to know about Obama's war on leakers.  Timothy Lee at Wonkblog.

International

Europe

The EU and the prisoners' dilemma.  "Throughout the eurozone, rising income inequality has created an underclass that is increasingly suspicious of the monetary union. As the post-war generation ages ... the remaining support for integration is waning.  Against this background, most European leaders are afraid that their electorates will reject anything that seems to imply more integration. It is a classic prisoner’s dilemma: all countries are better off if they contribute to a common cause, but the pressure of national elections impedes politicians’ ability to champion that cause."  Gene Frieda at Project Syndicate.

Consider this pattern.  First, vaccine scare.  Then, epidemic that should have been controlled by said vaccine.  Brilliant.  "Great Britain is in the midst of a measles epidemic, one that public health officials say is the result of parents refusing to vaccinate their children after a safety scare that was later proved to be fraudulent.  More than 1,200 people have come down with measles so far this year, following nearly 2,000 cases in 2012."  Nancy Shute at NPR.

Middle East

Forget Sunni-Shiite sectarianism.  The Sunnis can cause plenty of problems by themselves.  "Sunni identity is hardly unifying Egypt, Libya, or Tunisia ... The rise of Islamist movements since the Arab uprisings, especially the public emergence of ... noxiously anti-Shiite prejudices, has certainly introduced a new edge to the region's sectarianism. But that's nothing compared to how it has affected intra-Sunni politics. Muslim Brothers and Salafis are at each other's throats in Egypt, while Tunisia's Ennahda Party has just cracked down hard on its own Salafi challengers."  Marc Lynch at Foreign Policy.

Fears of Syrian spillover.  "Secretary of State John Kerry said Wednesday that the United States was increasingly concerned that the escalating fighting in Syria might slip across the border with Lebanon and destabilize that country. ... The decision by Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia and Iranian ally, to join the battle for the strategic city of Qusayr in Syria, and the prospect that the Syrian rebels might respond by carrying the fight to Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon, has alarmed the Obama administration."  Michael Gordon and Mark Landler in the New York Times.

A new Syrian peace proposal.  Too bad it's a pipe dream.  "Former Syrian National Coalition President Moaz al-Khatib presented a 16-point initiative ... that would pave the way for a political transition in Syria. It calls for Assad to hand over power ... and to leave the country with 500 people of his choosing. The Syrian government would then remain in place for 100 days ... after which a transitional authority would replace it. Those fighters who engaged in 'legal military action' during the conflict would be granted a pardon -- but Assad and ... departing supporters would be provided with no legal protection.  That would be a great deal for the opposition. ... They just aren't going to get it."  David Kenner at Foreign Policy.

A guide to Iran's eight presidential candidates.  Marya Hannun at Foreign Policy.

Economics

The neuroeconomics revolution.  "Efforts to link neuroscience to economics have occurred mostly in just the last few years, and the growth of neuroeconomics is still in its early stages. ... Neuroeconomists ... conduct research that is well beyond their conventional colleagues’ intellectual comfort zone, for they seek to advance some of the core concepts of economics by linking them to specific brain structures. ... Glimcher and his colleagues ... have yet to find most of the fundamental brain structures. Maybe ... because such structures simply do not exist, and the whole utility-maximization theory is wrong, or ... in need of fundamental revision. If so, that finding alone would shake economics to its foundations."  Robert Shiller at Project Syndicate.

Military

The first flight of the Navy's new Triton recon drone.  "Northrop’s land-based MQ-4C Triton drone made its first flight ... The unmanned aircraft, unlimited by human endurance, will provide superior long-endurance, long-duration coverage of wide areas. ... Triton 'will have a set of sensors and mission systems on it to take over approximately 30 percent ... of the ISR [intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance] mission set that has historically been tasked to the maritime patrol aviation community.'"  Sydney Freedburg Jr. at Breaking Defense. 

Science

The science of mental maps.  "About 40 years ago, researchers first began to suspect that we have neurons in our brains called 'place cells.' They’re responsible for helping us ... find our way in the world, navigating the environment with some internal sense of where we are, how far we've come, and how to find our way back home. All of this sounds like the work of maps. But our brains do impressively sophisticated mapping work, too."  Emily Badger at the Atlantic Cities.

Miscellaneous

The National Zoo welcomes Bozie the elephant.  "Officials from the National Zoo and the Baton Rouge Zoo agreed that the move was the best thing for Bozie. It is not healthy for elephants to be alone, and in Washington, she will have an opportunity for romance.  The National Zoo has three Asian elephants, including a young male. There’s also a female about Bozie’s age. It also has a roomy state-of-the-art elephant complex with an indoor rec center, a 5,700-square-foot barn and a quarter-mile walkway through woods."  Michael Ruane in the Washington Post.

Pandas be crazy.  "Former French President Valery Giscard d'Estaing has revealed he was once jumped on by a panda when he dared himself to enter its cage. ... He had been visiting Vincennes Zoo in Paris, where his daughter was on work experience, when he decided to test his 'presidential courage'. ... A panda leapt on him and staff had to free him from its claws ... An expert at Edinburgh Zoo told the BBC the ex-leader had had a lucky escape.  'Although they are vegetarian bears, obviously at the end of the day pandas are still very powerful and muscular bears with teeth and claws to match,' Iain Valentine, director of giant pandas at the zoo, told the BBC News website."  BBC.

Oceans be crazier.  "The Lembeh Strait ... is known to divers as 'the planet’s most intriguing and bizarre square mile of ocean floor.'"  Video.

Care to join me on a Fox News polling adventure?  "C'mon. Does anyone seriously believe an independent poll would ask whether respondents feel like 'the federal government has gotten out of control'? ... As a rule, professional news organizations put a great deal of care into how they word polling questions. To get reliable results that accurately reflect public attitudes, surveys have to be careful not to guide respondents or skew their answers.  It's possible Fox is less concerned about accurately reflecting public attitudes."  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

The Boy Scouts of America voted to admit openly gay members.  "Capping off several months of controversy and debate, the Boy Scouts of America’s governing body has voted to open membership to those who are openly gay ... a step its chief executive called 'compassionate, caring and kind.'  The decision, which followed years of resistance and wrenching internal debate, was widely seen as a milestone for the Boy Scouts ... More than 1,400 volunteer leaders from across the country voted, with more than 60 percent approving a measure that said no youth may be denied membership 'on the basis of sexual orientation or preference alone.'"  Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.

We've lost the first web page.  "Given the World Wide Web's ubiquity, you might be tempted to believe that everything is online. But there's one important piece of the Web's own history that can't be found through a search engine: the very first Web page.  Now a team at the lab where the World Wide Web was invented is seeking to restore that page, and other pieces of memorabilia from the earliest moments of the http:// era. They're on the hunt for old hard drives and floppy disks that may hold missing copies of early, valuable files."  Geoff Brumfiel at NPR.

Operation Swill: complete, for now.  "At one bar, a mixture that included rubbing alcohol and caramel coloring was sold as scotch. In another, premium liquor bottles were refilled with water — and apparently not even clean water at that. State officials provided those new details Thursday on raids they conducted a day earlier as part of a yearlong investigation dubbed Operation Swill. Twenty-nine New Jersey bars and restaurants ... were accused of substituting cheap booze — or worse — for the good stuff while charging premium prices."  AP.