Elections
2014
Increased African-American turnout could be the 2014 game changer. "Blacks waited — and waited— for their opportunity to vote in the last election. The gutting of the Voting Rights Act ... should only bolster their resolve ... Anger over the acquittal of George Zimmerman ... The motivation to send the president’s political enemies packing ... A House of Representatives returned to Democratic control and the Democratic majority hanging on in the Senate would allow Obama to get his agenda through ... All that’s required is for the 2014 electorate to be less white than it has ever been ... African Americans must vote as they have in the last two ... elections to render 'past patterns' obsolete." Jonathan Capehart at the Washington Post.
Graham and McConnell will win their primaries. "The numbers suggest ... that both McConnell and Graham are likely going to beat their primary opponents ... Right now, there are not really any signs that McConnell or Graham are in trouble with the Republican base ... Both Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham should be considered moderate-to-strong favorites to win their primaries. Few senators lose primaries. McConnell and Graham's early polling numbers among the primary electorate are relatively strong, and their ideological positioning is much more in-line with the base than incumbents who have lost." Harry Enten at the Guardian.
2014 - Arkansas
Arkansas's Senate race will be close. "The problem for Pryor is threefold ... A large part of the southern realignment has been generational, and it has hit the rural South especially hard ... As the Democrats have moved toward a more urban, upscale coalition, and ... paid an increasing price with downscale, rural voters ... Most important, running against Cotton in an off-year election is a ... demographic nightmare for Pryor ... He won’t be able to count on a surge in African-American turnout in the east ... None of this is to say that Pryor is an easy target ... Republicans should be happy that Cotton ran ... This is a tough race, and they shouldn’t pop the champagne bottles just yet." Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics.
2014 - Georgia
Georgia might be just the Senate race that the Democrats are looking for. "No matter who emerges from the Republican scrum, it will be someone with baggage and damage and quite possibly a depleted treasury. That’s why national Democrats (and more quietly, national Republicans) talk of Georgia as a red-state wild-card in 2014. And with the Senate landscape tilting steadily away from Democrats in recent months ... it could become a very big deal next year. That Nunn begins on even ground before her Republican rivals begin tearing each other apart and trying to outflank each other on the right is a good if very early sign for Democrats." Ed Kilgore at the Washington Monthly.
2014 - Texas
Wendy Davis is now the vanguard of Democratic hopes for Texas. "Texas Sen. Wendy Davis’s (D) decision on whether to jump into the state’s gubernatorial race has implications for more than just control of the governor’s mansion. She rose to national prominence this month following an 11-hour filibuster of a restrictive abortion bill that, though it failed, sparked speculation that she could be the party’s best shot at the gubernatorial race ... Her decision on whether to run could be both a catalyst for, and a progress check on, a growing Democratic movement to turn the longtime red state purple." Alexandra Jaffe at the Hill.
But, it's much safer to be a pessimist on her chances. "Texas is an extremely red state. There aren’t many swing voters, since a majority of the state is either non-white or white evangelical Christian. Until the state’s demographics change, Democrats will need a candidate who can make big inroads into the state’s massive white, conservative base. That's especially true in a midterm election. And Wendy Davis isn’t that candidate." Nate Cohn at the New Republic.
2016
Chris Christie is in a good spot for the 2016 primaries. "Christie checks the crucial boxes of the religious and business wings of the Republican Party. He’s pro-life and he’s against gay marriage. He has solid credentials opposing taxes and attacking unions ... His great acts of moderation are on immigration, where many of the contenders are on the sage page, or on guns, which isn’t anything close to a litmus test—especially in the states Christie is counting on ... It’s surprisingly easy to envision Christie winning the nomination. His conservative credentials are pretty good, so now all he needs to do is get Republicans to remember." Nate Cohn at the New Republic.
Miscellaneous
Politics
Congress
Hey Congress, I'm gonna let you finish, but - come on, do your jobs for a change. "The 112th Congress was one of the least productive Congresses ever. The current, 113th Congress is ... not doing much better. Twenty-two bills have been passed and sent to the White House since this Congress convened in January ... The bills that have made it into law have largely been small: There's been no big new jobs program, no actual repeal of Obamacare, no immigration reform through both chambers. But there's at least one thing that Congress has been able to come together and take action on: the regulation of commemorative coins." Matt Berman at the National Journal.
DEA
The DEA is under investigation for 'parallel construction'. "The Justice Department is reviewing a U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration unit that passes tips culled from intelligence intercepts, wiretaps, informants and a large telephone database to field agents ... Agents who use such tips are trained to 'recreate' the investigative trail to effectively conceal the DEA unit's involvement from defense lawyers, prosecutors and even judges, a policy many lawyers said could violate a defendant's right to a fair trial. Federal drug agents call the process of changing the true genesis of an arrest 'parallel construction,' according to a training document." John Shiffman and David Ingram at Reuters.
Democrats
Obama and the Dems aren't uniquely alienating white voters. "Douthat has tried ... accusing Democrats of willfully repelling non-college educated white voters ... via extremism on guns, abortion and environmental issues ... Has Obama, whose main thrust on guns has been a background check bill ... really been more 'liberal' on gun issues than Clinton, who championed ... an assault weapon ban? ... I seem to recall gnashing my teeth ... during the 2012 ... election at Obama’s ... pandering to coal-state sensibilities ... And on abortion, Douthat’s focus on Clinton’s famous 'safe, legal and rare' formulation allows him to forget that Clinton’s actual policies on abortion were more or less identical to Obama’s." Ed Kilgore at the Washington Monthly.
The Economy
The ACA: Still not a job killer. "Friday’s employment report showed that the U.S. job market continues to add jobs at a moderate pace. Employers are creating enough jobs to slowly reduce the unemployment rate, which fell to 7.4 percent — the lowest it has been since December 2008. But many of the jobs added in recent months have been part-time, and this has led critics of Obamacare to argue that the implementation of health-care reform is the culprit ... The critics are mistaken: Recent data provide scant evidence that health reform is causing a significant shift toward part-time work." Jared Bernstein and Paul Van de Water at Politico.
FBI
Fiscal Fights
Obamacare shutdown or bust for GOP activists. "His office pointed to at least a dozen bills that Pittenger has co-sponsored that involve the repeal of Obamacare ... Of course, all the Obamacare repeal bills ... are no longer good enough. Nor is the claim that defunding Obamacare is unrealistic ... A heckler responds to Pittenger’s suggestion that Harry Reid won’t let the Senate defund Obamacare by saying: 'It doesn’t matter...' Simply arguing against Obamacare and even advocating for its repeal no longer count as real opposition to the law. If you are not willing to shut down the government — doing untold damage in the process ... your opposition to Obamacare is now suspect." Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.
We're getting really good at cutting the wrong programs. "Congressional appropriators are once again trying to reduce America’s ... debt by slashing President Obama’s $52 billion foreign operations budget request. The budget includes everything from embassy security ... vaccination programs ... humanitarian aid ... and United Nations ... peacekeepers ... Though the foreign operations budget constitutes only one percent of the federal budget, House Republicans devote a disproportionate amount to time cutting it dollar by dollar each year. This does not makes a dent in reducing the federal deficit, and negatively impacts U.S. national security interests around the world." Micah Zenko and Amelia Wolf at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Sequestration and the justice system. "The sequester is often described as an 'across the board' spending cut–a term that implies shared sacrifice. For the criminal justice system, however, the cuts are one-sided. According to estimates from around the country, the sequester is hitting public defenders and courts far harder than prosecutors. Whether by design or default, the sequester is systematically magnifying inequities in the courts–and potentially undermining constitutional rights. The details vary by region, but in many federal districts, public defenders are facing cuts that are double to quadruple the size of their opponents across the court room. " Ari Melber at MSNBC.
Politifact, I truly despise you. "This Cantor example should be an easy one. Cantor said the deficit is growing; the deficit is shrinking; so even PolitiFact can't ignore the straightforward arithmetic ... But the House Majority Leader can make a claim that's the polar opposite of reality and it's 'half true' ... In theory, I'm not reflexively opposed to the idea of websites fact-checking important claims made by political figures, but if you're going to have the word 'fact' in your name, you have a responsibility to get the details right. And too often, PolitiFact just isn't good at its job ... What incentive do political leaders have to tell the truth when you tell the public their patently false claims are 'half true'?" Steve Benen at Maddowblog.
Foreign Policy
This is the eighth time Al Qaeda in Yemen has threatened US embassies. "Based on the U.S. response to the threat and AQAP's track record, it wouldn't be surprising if U.S. embassies were discussed. According to the private U.S. counterterrorism intelligence company IntelCenter, AQAP has mentioned the United States in its messages 16 times this year alone -- making America far and away AQAP's favorite target ... In a separate analysis, IntelCenter found that AQAP has publicly discussed attacking embassies seven times since December 2009 ... It's clear these diplomatic posts are in AQAP's crosshairs." J. Dana Stuster at Foreign Policy.
GOP
Still can't govern. "The extreme wing of the Republican Party wants to use its control of the House to force Obama to bend to its will by threat of inflicting economic and governing chaos ... It seems like there ought to be some possible deal which 1) improves on the status quo, and 2) is acceptable to Obama. But that debate is completely invisible on the right. Conservatives have enthusiastically debated the distant future of their party ... Most of that debate involves imaginary future political coalitions and abstract philosophical decisions. But in the meantime ... The only debate conservatives are actually having about that is whether to blow everything up unless Obama surrenders to them." Jonathan Chait at New York Magazine.
Where are the women? "When the House Judiciary Committee passed a late-term abortion ban in June, Republican leaders scrambled to find a female, media-savvy lawmaker to bring the legislation to the floor. Their biggest problem: Not a single Republican woman was represented among the committee's 23 GOP members ... The episode underscored a growing problem that is worrying Republicans: Women are badly underrepresented within their party in the Congress. Only 8 percent of House Republicans are women, and the Senate has only four female Republicans. Of the long list of potential 2016 GOP presidential contenders, not a single woman is on it." Sarah Mimms at the National Journal.
Health
Some good health news for a change. "This map, out today from the Center for Disease Control, is startling, and good, news. It shows obesity among low-income preschoolers between ages 2 and 4 dropping in 19 states – and increasing in just three. This and other recent reports suggest that we might just be turning a corner on childhood obesity, an epidemic that has grown steadily in recent years." Sarah Kliff at Wonkblog.
The ACA is on its way back to the Supreme Court. "The next clash may be over the requirement that employer-provided insurance plans include contraceptive coverage; a case involving that issue could reach the high court this year. Hobby Lobby, a family-run craft store chain, and at least 34 other companies have sued for an exemption. They say the birth-control mandate violates their religious freedom, forcing them to provide something they consider immoral ... The core legal question is whether companies can assert the same rights as people—the very issue that drove an ideological wedge through the court in the 2010 Citizens United case." Greg Stohr at Bloomberg.
The demographics of the Obamacare divide. Bill Gardner at the Incidental Economist.
Even churches can't get the GOP to constructively engage the ACA. "An effort by Democrats to fix a glitch under Obamacare that harms small churches is ... expected to be blocked by Republicans, in ... the latest example of GOP efforts to undermine President Obama’s signature legislative achievement by refusing to fix technical problems ... The problem is that under the law clergy and church employees at smaller churches cannot apply their Obamacare subsidies toward the premiums for church insurance plans because those plans do not qualify." Sahil Kapur at Talking Points Memo.
The seven craziest Obamacare conspiracy theories. Erika Eichelberger at Mother Jones.
Immigration
Immigration might go up in flames, but it isn't DOA in the House. "Immigration reform advocates and Dems in talks with House Republicans believe ... we need to take seriously the fact that House Republicans have been genuinely committed for a long time to the position that any form of citizenship ... represents rewarding lawbreaking, period, full stop ... While it will be very difficult for them to get from there to supporting reform, the possibility that they are trying to get there should not be dismissed ... The school of thought that immigration reform is inevitably doomed ... may be just flat out wrong. It may die in the end, but that doesn’t mean that was preordained." Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.
Ohio
This is so stupid, it's painful. "A lily-white Ohio suburb is doing everything it can, including risking millions in federal highway funding, to keep mostly minority bus-riders from a nearby city from entering their community. The showdown began ... when the Greater Dayton Regional Transit Authority proposed adding three new bus stops in Beavercreek, a largely white suburb ... The Beavercreek City Council began enacting as many hurdles as they could ... Among the dozen roadblocks included mandating ... features that would be hugely expensive and are not common at other stops. Unsurprisingly, these demands couldn’t be met and the council rejected the expansion." Scott Keyes at Think Progress.
Trayvon Martin
That Zimmerman civil rights probe still probably won't result in anything. "Since the end of the George Zimmerman trial, many of those dismayed by the not guilty verdict have pushed for the Department of Justice to press federal civil-rights charges against Trayvon Martin’s killer ... Indeed, soon after the verdict was read in mid-July, Attorney General Eric Holder launched an inquiry into whether civil-rights charges should be filed against Zimmerman. But unless the investigation uncovers evidence that was not publicly available at the time of the trial, it is almost certain that the federal government will decline to prosecute Zimmerman." Scott Lemieux at the American Prospect.
Voting Rights
We need the VRA now more than ever. "The Supreme Court’s decision ... invalidating Section 4 of the VRA threatens to roll back much of the progress made over the past forty-eight years. Since the ruling, six Southern states previously covered under Section 4 have passed or implemented new voting restrictions ... The latest assault ... comes on the heels of a presidential election in which voter suppression attempts played a starring role, with 180 bills introduced in forty-one states to restrict access to the ballot in 2011–12 ... The broad scope of contemporary voting discrimination is why John Lewis testified before Congress last month that 'the Voting Rights Act is needed now like never before.'" Ari Berman at the Nation.
War on Crime
The abuse of forfeiture law. "A system that proved successful at wringing profits from drug cartels and white-collar fraudsters has also given rise to corruption and violations of civil liberties. Over the past year, I spoke with more than a hundred police officers, defense attorneys, prosecutors, judges, and forfeiture plaintiffs from across the country. Many expressed concern that state laws designed to go after high-flying crime lords are routinely targeting the workaday homes, cars, cash savings, and other belongings of innocent people who are never charged with a crime." Sarah Stillman at the New Yorker.
War on Terror
The Al Qaeda 'clothing bomb' is about as much of a threat as a dime. "The panic over an alleged al Qaeda plot went into overdrive Monday night, when ABC News reported that terrorists in Yemen were experimenting with a new and virtually undetectable bomb-making technique: dipping their clothes into liquid explosive that then dries and can be ignited. The cries of doom began almost immediately after the story went online. But people shouldn't have been so quick to scream. A clothing bomb would almost certainly never work, explosive experts tell Foreign Policy." Shane Harris and Noah Shachtman at Foreign Policy.
International
Africa
No violence yet in Zimbabwe, but the post-election environment is tense. "Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe and his party ZANU-PF have consistently used repression to remain in power. The aftermath of the July 31 elections is no exception. According to SW Radio Africa, 'ZANU-PF youth militia are threatening to punish anyone who witnessed electoral fraud and speaks about it.' ... Thus far, there has been no violence. Principal opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai says that his MDC-T party will contest the election results in the courts, boycott any contact with the government, and lobby the African Union ... and the Southern African Development Community ... to overturn the elections." John Campbell at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Botswana breaks with most of Africa, condemns the Zimbabwe election. "Botswana emerged Tuesday as a rare African voice of criticism of Zimbabwe’s disputed election, saying it was unfair and warning the region not to flout its own guidelines by accepting the result ... Botswana said the region 'should not create the undesirable precedent of permitting exceptions to its own rules' ... Botswana said its 80 poll observers concluded that conditions for free and fair elections were not met because of widespread irregularities." Associated Press.
Uganda cracks down on political expression. "Uganda's parliament ... passed a contentious bill ... following months of confrontation between the authorities and activists ... The 'Public Order Management Bill' was passed ... after opposition lawmakers staged a fierce attempt to filibuster its passage amid concerns it gives Ugandan police dictatorial powers to decide who can stage a public event of a political nature ... The law gives the police powers to control public meetings, including the use of force to break up gatherings held without prior authorization. Even meetings of a political nature held between three people must be authorized by the police." Rodney Muhumuza at the Associated Press.
The Tunisia situation is still a little shaky, but things could be much worse. "Tunisia's ruling Islamist party is willing to go to referendum over whether to preserve transitional governance institutions, the party chief said on Monday, but he stood firm against secular opposition efforts to oust the government. Rachid Ghannouchi said his Ennahda party was open to dialogue to modify Tunisia's political transition. But he refused to consider removing the prime minister or dissolve a temporary Constituent Assembly, now weeks away from finishing a draft constitution and electoral law." Tarek Amara and Erika Solomon at Reuters.
Caribbean
New study blames UN peacekeepers for the outbreak of cholera in Haiti. "The study argues that the scientific evidence of the UN's responsibility is now beyond doubt: 'Scientific study of the origins of the cholera epidemic in Haiti overwhelmingly demonstrates that U.N. peacekeeping troops from Nepal introduced the disease into the country. No cases of active transmission of cholera had been reported in Haiti for at least a century prior to October 2010 ... The peacekeeping troops ... at the time of the outbreak were deployed from Nepal, where cholera is endemic and an outbreak occurred just prior to their departure, increasing their likelihood of exposure and transmission.'" David Bosco at the Multilateralist.
Middle East
Syrian rebels strike deep into Assad's territory in addition to other recent victories. "Syrian rebels have captured several villages during a surprise offensive in Latakia province, the heartland of President Bashar al-Assad's minority Alawite sect, activists say. Deadly clashes have been reported between opposition fighters and troops for a second day in the coastal region. Latakia is the ancestral home of the Assad family. The offensive comes after loyalist forces made recent gains in the cities of Damascus, Homs and Aleppo. Also on Tuesday, rebels claimed they had captured a key military airport near the border with Turkey." BBC.
Afghanistan and the Taliban restart the peace process. "The Taliban have held secret talks with representatives of Afghan President Hamid Karzai to try to jumpstart a peace process that stumbled and stalled at the starting gate, according to Afghan officials and a senior Taliban representative. The discussions with members of the Afghan High Peace Council have so far been unofficial and preliminary, seen as an attempt to agree on conditions for formal talks. But they do suggest an interest on both sides in proceeding, or at least toying, with a peace process that has been mired in controversy since the official opening of a Taliban political office in June in the Gulf nation of Qatar." Associated Press.
Egypt's new government might begin reconciliation with the Muslim Brotherhood. "Egypt's army and government will offer to free some Muslim Brotherhood members from jail, unfreeze the group's assets and give it three ministerial posts in a bid to end the country's political crisis, a senior military source said on Monday." Reuters.
Egypt's economy and the foreign aid dilemma. "Egypt may have dodged a bullet last month when a handful of Gulf states pledged $12 billion in emergency aid to prop up the country’s flagging economy, which has been battling inflation while running dangerously low on foreign currency reserves. But the bailout underscored the extent to which perverse political incentives have become Egypt’s biggest economic problem. As long as the country can count on foreign revenue streams, its leaders will continue to put off much-needed economic reforms — a dangerous dynamic that sets Egypt on the path to financial ruin." Adeel Malik and Ty McCormick at the New York Times.
Science
Dolphins are awesome. Really, really awesome. "Allie and Bailey knew each other when they both lived in Florida. More than 20 years later, Allie lives near Chicago and Bailey lives in Bermuda, but Allie’s name still rings a bell for Bailey. That would not be breaking news, except that Allie and Bailey are not people: they are dolphins. Bailey’s recollection of Allie’s name — or more precisely, of her 'signature whistle', which functions as a name among dolphins — is the most durable social memory ever recorded for a non-human." Karen Ravn + Video at Nature.
Miscellaneous
Happy Birthday, Curiosity! "NASA’s Curiosity Rover just celebrated the galaxy’s loneliest birthday, 'singing' to itself in a Martian crater, 208 million miles from home ... Monday marked the one-year anniversary of the rover’s landing on the Red Planet ... In its first year on Mars, Curiosity has taken more than 70,000 images, fired more than 75,000 laser shots to check soil and rock composition, and driven ... an entire mile. While that may not seem very far, NASA says it’s enough to determine that Mars could have once supported life and to lay the groundwork for a future manned mission to Mars." Caitlin Dewey at the Switch.
The five most controversial Wikipedia pages in ten languages. "When disputes arise on Wikipedia ... often an 'edit war' ensues: a change is repeatedly done by one person and undone by another—known as a 'revert.' These reverts represent the most controversial articles ... The results in some ways confirm cultural stereotypes. Americans bicker over politics and professional wrestling; among the top French squabbles is Freud." The Economist.
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