Monday: 9/16/13

Federal Reserve

The list of Fed Chair candidates, after the exit of Larry Summers.  "The path for the next Fed chair seemed clear as recently as a week ago. Obama was inclined to appoint Summers. He would face some opposition in the Senate, but surmountable opposition. In the last seven days, as an appointment started to appear imminent, opposition to him started to galvanize, and Summers has elected to pull himself out of the running rather than put the president in a difficult spot. Now we get to see what direction the president wants to go now that his favored candidate is out of the picture."  Neil Irwin at Wonkblog.

Where does the power lie in the Fed confirmation fight?  "The last blow to Summers came from Senator Jon Tester, a centrist red state Democrat from Montana ... Two elements of Tester’s Friday afternoon statement opposing Summers are worth noting. First, the opposition to Summers went beyond coastal liberals who disagreed with his past stance on deregulation; Tester’s opposition reminds us of historical tension between the Main Street and Wall Street wings of the Democratic Party. Second, the close party ratio on the Banking panel places enormous leverage in the hands of its far left Democrats, including Senators Jeff Merkley, Elizabeth Warren, and Sherrod Brown."  Sarah Binder at the Monkey Cage.

Liberal Senate Dems taking on Wall Street.  "Wall Street, which has typically counted on the United States Senate to moderate public anger, found itself reckoning Monday with a new reality: A key Senate panel stacked with liberals immune to its blandishments. Larry Summers, a former top aide to Clinton and Obama who defended large financial institutions in the first years of the Obama Administration from lawmakers who would have seen them broken up, withdrew his bid to lead the Federal Reserve Sunday after failing to win over senators Sherrod Brown, Jeff Merkley, and Elizabeth Warren."  Matthew Zeitlin at Buzzfeed.

Markets rally after the contentious Summers nomination gets taken off the table.  "What was actually known about a Summers nomination was this: His Senate confirmation would have been polarizing and contentious, with the outcome in the air until the final vote count. And his views on monetary policy have largely been kept secret ... Both of those point to more uncertainty about the future under Summers than under Yellen, who would likely face a simpler confirmation process and has been crystal-clear in her views on monetary policy ... Markets are rallying because the prospect of months of being whipsawed by uncertainty over the Fed's future direction have diminished."  Neil Irwin at Wonkblog.

What qualities should we look for in the next Fed Chair?  Jared Bernstein at Economix.

Five reasons Janet Yellen should be Fed Chair.  Ezra Klein at Wonkblog.

Three reasons Christina Romer should be (but won't be) Fed Chair.  Matthew Yglesias at Slate.

Health

The Affordable Care Act

The ACA wars rage on. "Obamacare has come to fill the place in the conservative psyche once occupied by communism and ... taxes ... The law has ... opened a fissure over the role of government deeper than any since the New Deal. Obamacare threatens America’s unique status among advanced economies as a country where access to regular medical care is a privilege that generally must be earned ... The Obamacare wars have progressed from the legislative to the judicial to the electoral fronts, gaining intensity at every step ... Obamacare will come online in the midst of an unprecedented quasi-campaign atmosphere, with Republicans waging a desperate political and cultural war to destroy it."  Jonathan Chait at New York Magazine.

No, not everyone wants to sabotage Obamacare.  "It continues to go overlooked in the Beltway argument over Obamacare, but one of the most fundamental factors shaping the politics of all of this is that disapproval of the Affordable Care Act does not ... translate into support for Republican efforts to undermine or sabotage the law. Republicans and conservatives constantly justify either their repeated votes to repeal the law, or ... to defund or delay it, by citing public dissatisfaction with it as proof the public supports their efforts. Yet there’s little to no polling evidence to suggest one translates into support for the other. Indeed, there’s evidence the opposite is true."  Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.

How to expand Medicaid while still denying it.  "So there’s considerable satisfaction ... at the news that embattled PA Governor Tom Corbett is reversing field and preparing to announce next week a plan to expand Medicaid coverage under the options offered by the Affordable Care Act, making the Keystone State the 27th to go along with this key provision of Obamacare ... Like other Republican governors who have gone in this direction, Corbett is at pains to deny he’s 'expanding Medicaid.' Oh no: he’s engaged in 'entitlement reform,' at the expense of the feds, of course."  Ed Kilgore at the Washington Monthly.

The ACA, employment, and the left-right divide. "Obamacare will also lead to big changes for workers ... Workers will find it easier to change jobs, and to enter and leave the labor force at will, without worrying that doing so will cause them to lose access to health insurance. In other words, Obamacare will tilt power in the labor market away from employers and toward employees. This is a big deal, and it's a sleeper issue that animates the left-right fight over Obamacare even though it is rarely discussed in the open."  Josh Barro at Business Insider.

Texas, the ACA, and the information gap.  "In 18 days, Americans will start signing up for medical coverage through the Affordable Care Act’s online exchanges ... You wouldn’t know it in Texas. Distrustful of the U.S. government, with a defiant and independent heritage, Texans are largely unsupportive of a law they little understand. While no state has a higher proportion of uninsured, the Republican governor, Rick Perry, has refused to help build or promote an insurance exchange in the state and he won’t expand Medicaid, the joint state-federal health plan for the poor, to care for more people."  Alex Wayne at Bloomberg.

Five questions explaining the union attacks on the ACA.  Brett Norman at Politico.

Miscellaneous

Antibiotic resistant bacteria need to be taken more seriously in health debates.  "Washington spends a lot more time arguing about how to finance health insurance than how to deliver health. But if you're securely in the middle class with employer-sponsored health insurance, these debates probably don't affect you much. What does affect you is the possibility of dying of a hospital-acquired superbug ... These kinds of quality issues get a lot less attention in the Beltway, but ... affect more people. And, in theory at least, preventing superbugs shouldn't be the kind of thing that Democrats and Republicans disagree over."  Ezra Klein at Wonkblog.

Politics

Alabama

Reminder: It is 2013.  "University of Alabama ... officials are set to announce a deal that would clear the way for black women to be admitted to the school’s prestigious and historically white Greek organizations ... after a story last week in the school’s student newspaper ... about a highly qualified black student being denied a bid ... The young woman — who requested that her name not appear in the paper’s story — was reportedly blocked by alumnae. The sole reason, according to current sorority members: she was black. Another black woman was also denied a bid. Some alumnae even threatened to pull financial support from their sororities if they accepted black members."  Victor Luckerson at Time.  

The Economy

The new economic normal.  "According to ... the Bureau of Labor Statistics ... employers added 169,000 jobs in August, about the same monthly pace of job creation that has prevailed over the past three years. This pattern of modest growth is also reflected in ... the unemployment rate, which has steadily edged down from 8.1 percent in August 2012 to 7.3 percent last month ... These actions appear to reflect policymakers’ dramatically reduced expectations for what constitutes the new normal of economic recovery. The tepid jobs growth of the last five years has discouraged many workers, who have dropped out of the labor force altogether or chosen not to enter the job market in the first place."  Michael Greenstone and Adam Looney at Brookings. 

The five worst things about this last jobs report.  Ezra Klein at Wonkblog.

What we get wrong when we talk about the 'financial crisis.'  "The focus on Lehman obscures the fact that there were really three crises ... There was also the ongoing financial crisis that would have happened even if Lehman’s failure didn’t cause any troubles. Meanwhile, there’s still a crisis of confidence over whether or not our financial markets are actually benefiting the economy as a whole. This isn’t just academic. Emphasizing Lehman biases the conversation over financial reform in a subtle but powerful way. The implication is that if Dodd-Frank can prevent the events of fall 2008 from happening, then our work here is done. That view is dangerously wrong."  Mike Konczal at Wonkblog.

Poverty is projected to decrease as the recovery continues.  "Poverty rates will decline over the next ten years. Why? Because the unemployment rate is projected to decline over the next ten years. A more robust economy means more people joining the labor force and finding jobs, more hours and weeks worked, and higher earnings ... As our economy slowly recovers from the Great Recession, the number of people leaving poverty should outnumber those entering poverty and poverty rates should fall."  Isabel Sawhill at Brookings.

Elections

The Democratic presidential advantage.  "Democrats begin each presidential contest with a significantly larger Electoral College base ... Republicans begin each presidential election with a base of 206 electoral votes, 51 fewer than do Democrats ... Even more important, our tally of each party’s base leaves only five states unaccounted for: Colorado (9 electoral votes), Nevada (6), Florida (29), Ohio (18), and Virginia (13)—the super-swing states. Unless the Republicans can somehow pry states away from the Democratic base, they must win all three of the large super-swings (Florida, Ohio, and Virginia), while Democrats can prevail by winning any one of them."  William Galston and Elaine Kamarck at Democracy.

Republicans are still favored to win in West Virginia, but things are looking better for the Dems.  "Democrats finally have a candidate in the Mountain State’s open Senate race: Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D) will reportedly enter the contest Tuesday morning. Her entry ... gives Democrats a credible opponent for Rep. Shelley Moore Capito ... the likely Republican nominee. We are changing the rating in this race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. With a successful statewide elected official now running, Democrats have kept the race on the competitive board, but it would still be a significant surprise if Republicans fumbled away one of their best pickup opportunities in the country." Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley at Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Good news for Dems in North Carolina.  "North Carolina's GOP Senate field could hurt Republicans’ chances to knock off Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.), pushing the candidates to the right and forcing them to use resources better saved for the general election ... The growing field could give Republicans headaches by forcing the mostly unknown candidates to spend money early instead of saving it for Hagan, whose seat is viewed as the tipping point for GOP Senate control. The party needs to pick up a net of six seats to win the majority."  Cameron Joseph at the Hill.

Energy and the Environment

The EPA and the coal industry prepare for all-out war.  "Following up on President Obama’s pledge in June to address climate change, the Environmental Protection Agency plans next week to propose the first-ever limits on greenhouse gas emissions from newly built power plants. But even before the proposal becomes public, experts on both sides of the issue say it faces a lobbying donnybrook and an all-but-certain court challenge. For a vast and politically powerful swath of the utility industry — operators of coal-fired plants, and the coal fields that supply them — there are fears that the rules would effectively doom construction of new coal plants far into the future."  Michael Wines at the New York Times.

In defense of pandas.  "Well, panda haters, watch out. Pandas are about to do something, and it's not just eating bamboo. And it's possible it might be prove to be of economic value? A team of scientists have begun studying whether certain microbes in panda feces might be the key to a more efficient way to produce biofuels. And it all has to do with panda's dietary decisions: All bamboo, all the time."  Sarah Kliff at Wonkblog.

Fiscal Fights

Next level fiscal maneuver or next level blunder?  "A debt ceiling vote is creeping its way into the government funding fight. The House Republican leadership, facing rank-and-file GOP lawmakers skeptical that the party is willing to defund or delay Obamacare, is weighing ways to tie an increase in the $16.7 trillion debt ceiling to a government funding bill, which must be enacted before Oct. 1, according to several leadership aides involved in the discussions."  Jake Sherman and John Breshanan at Politico.

Republicans go after food stamps - new day, same old playbook.  "House Republicans are planning to vote soon on a bill that could push millions of people off food-aid programs that have expanded since the economic downturn, potentially burdening charities that help feed the hungry. The $40 billion in cuts to nutrition programs over 10 years included in the bill would be a 5.2 percent reduction from what the Congressional Budget Office estimates would be spent under current policy ... The food-assistance bill would end benefits to as many as 6 million low-income people, according to an August report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities."  Derek Wallbank at the Washington Post.

Except this fight is ... quite a bit larger than the last time.  "Democrats look at the food-stamp program and see an essential piece of a fraying safety net. Republicans see entitlement spending gone wild. This fierce debate is to be joined soon in the House, where Republicans plan to take up a mean-spirited measure that would cut spending on the program by a whopping $40 billion over the next decade — twice the original House proposal and 10 times the trims envisioned by the Senate."  Ruth Marcus at the Washington Post.

In defense of state-run welfare / why Christian libertarians are wrong. "Because the state separates giver from receiver, it prevents ... prejudice and exclusion based on doctrinal disagreements (e.g. LGBT issues, religious differences) ... By lowering a veil between the payer and the paid, our good will to provide for the poor is stripped of any ill we might wish them if we knew who they were, or vice versa ... And when the state taxes, it does so with sensitivity to where wealth is concentrated ... which is a step toward avoiding the problem of relegating the poorest communities to paradoxically spare more for their own members."  Elizabeth Stoker.

Foreign Policy

The Syria story.  "This account of an extraordinary 24 days in international diplomacy ... is based on more than two dozen interviews with senior White House, State Department, Pentagon and congressional officials and many of their counterparts in Europe and the Middle East ... Through mixed messages, miscalculations and an 11th-hour break, the U.S. stumbled into an international crisis and then stumbled out of it. A president who made a goal of reducing the U.S.'s role as global cop lurched from the brink of launching strikes to seeking congressional approval to embracing a deal with his biggest international adversary on Syria, Russian President Vladimir Putin."  Adam Entous, Janet Hook, and Carol E. Lee at the Wall Street Journal.

Sprinting towards a deal on Syria.  "The United States and Russia reached a sweeping agreement on Saturday that called for Syria’s arsenal of chemical weapons to be removed or destroyed by the middle of 2014 and indefinitely stalled the prospect of American airstrikes ... 'This situation has no precedent,' said Amy E. Smithson, an expert on chemical weapons at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. 'They are cramming what would probably be five or six years’ worth of work into a period of several months, and they are undertaking this in an extremely difficult security environment due to the ongoing civil war.'"  Michael Gordon at the New York Times.

Humanitarian nightmare zone.  "Assad. Why is this agreement a victory for him? ... 1. So long as he doesn’t use chemical weapons on his people, he’ll be safe from armed Western intervention. Roughly 98 percent of the people who have died in the Syrian civil war so far have not been killed with chemical weapons, so obviously Assad and his regime have figured out ways to cause mass death in conventional ways. It’s safe to assume that he’ll increase the tempo of attacks on rebels and civilians, knowing now that he can do so with impunity. Obama won’t be outlining any further 'red lines,' it would seem."  Jeffrey Goldberg at Bloomberg.

The mess that is Syria policy - the public doesn't believe the diplomatic option will work, but they'll support it anyway.  "As U.S. and Russian diplomats reached an agreement over the weekend to dismantle Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles, the public expresses support for a diplomatic approach to the crisis but is skeptical about its effectiveness. By a 67% to 23% margin, the public approves of Barack Obama’s decision to delay military airstrikes and pursue a diplomatic effort to convince Syria to give up its chemical weapons. However, just 26% think Syria will give up control of its chemical weapons, while 57% think it will not."  The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.

We shouldn't be complacent about this - Syria doesn't exactly play by the rules.  "When it comes to weapons of mass destruction and international agreements, Syria has been a liar, a cheat, and a games player ... In just the last two years, the International Atomic Energy Association ... declared that Assad was in noncompliance with its agreements under ... the Safeguards Agreement ... to guarantee that countries are in compliance with their treaty obligations with regard to the manufacture and use of nuclear materials."  Kurt Eichenwald at Vanity Fair.

Guns

Gun battles continue in the states.  "High hopes have been tempered by a series of losses, most notably in April when the Senate defeated several measures to strengthen gun restrictions and then last week in Colorado, where two state senators who had backed stronger gun laws lost recall elections. The greatest successes of gun control supporters came in the form of sweeping new laws in a handful of Democratic-led states, including Maryland and New York, as well as in politically mixed Colorado ... Now those on both sides in the debate are raising money, developing new strategies and turning their focus to potential battles in at least half a dozen states."  Erica Goode at the New York Times.

The intensity gap is still an issue.  Embarrassing.  "The intensity gap is precisely the problem ... When respondents were asked if they’d refuse to vote for a candidate who disagreed with them on guns, those whose priority was to protect gun rights were more likely to say yes than those who thought it more important to control gun ownership. Even more significant, 12 percent of the gun-rights partisans said they had given money to groups on their side of the issue, compared with only 3 percent who believed in regulating gun ownership. The gun lobby has a large base. Those seeking more sensible gun laws still need to build one."  E.J. Dionne at the Washington Post.

The post-Newtown gun matched death tally: 8,334.  Chris Kirk and Dan Kois at Slate.

LGBT Rights

This is pretty disgraceful.  "The U.S. gay-rights movement has achieved many victories in recent years - on marriage, military service and other fronts. Yet one vestige of an earlier, more wary era remains firmly in place: the 30-year-old nationwide ban on blood donations by gay and bisexual men. Dating from the first years of the AIDS epidemic, the ban is a source of frustration to many gay activists, and also to many leading players in the nation's health and blood-supply community who have joined in calling for change."  David Crary at the Associated Press.

The Navy Yard Shooting

What we know about alleged shooter Aaron Alexis.  Richard Esposito, Micahel Isikoff, Hannah Rappleye, and Aliza Nadi at NBC.

"I told you so..."  "Six months ago, the admiral in charge of naval base security across the U.S. homeland said that funding cuts were reducing physical security inspections and emergency response times at naval bases ... The instruction noted that security forces and emergency crews at naval facilities in the Washington D.C. area, including Naval Support Activity Washington D.C., which includes Washington Navy Yard, 'will have slower response times because they will not be able to repair vehicles.' It added: 'Physical security and explosive safety programs will not be able to do inspection preparations,' the newspaper reported."  Robert Beckhusen at Medium.

Military facilities aren't as secure as you might think.  "Key details of the massacre at Washington's Navy Yard are just beginning to emerge, but the attack offers an unsettling reminder that many military facilities have soft underbellies when it comes to security ... At military posts like the sprawling Marine base in Quantico, Virginia, for instance, virtually anyone with one of the Common Access Cards (CAC) issued to troops, civilian Defense Department employees, and government contractors can enter the facility without being patted down or made to go through a metal detector."  Yochi Dreazen at Foreign Policy.

The single most useful thing Reddit has done during its useless existence.  "A section for finding the Navy Yard shooters on the popular online community reddit has been banned. The shooting at the Washington Navy Yard on Monday morning left at least 12, including a gunman dead. But police say there may be another suspect at large, and they 'have reason to believe' this individual was involved in shootings. Reddit became a gathering place for amateur sleuthing in the aftermath of the Boston Marathon bombing earlier this year, fueling what some reports called 'online witch hunts' that resulted in some people being falsely identified as the bomber."  Andrea Peterson at the Switch.

The State Department

The place to work if you want to improve your poll numbers.  "Long held in contempt by big chunks of the political cognoscenti, and exposed to ridicule during the last week for 'stumbling' into a Russian diplomatic initiative over Syria, Secretary of State John Kerry is actually bidding fair to become one of the federal government’s best-liked public servants, per a new Gallup survey ... Given Hillary Clinton’s robust approval ratings for most of her tenure as Kerry’s predecessor, it’s beginning to look like service as Secretary of State is a tonic for long-serving pols: see the world, burnish your approval ratings."  Ed Kilgore at the Washington Monthly.

International

Global

10 winners and losers of the Syria deal.  Aaron David Miller at Foreign Policy.

Meet the obscure UN body that will decide Syria's fate.  "A diplomatic deal between the U.S. and Russia will hinge on whether an obscure body within the U.N. system says Syria is living up to its promises ... Syria has made itself subject to the authority of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) ... While OPCW’s trained chemical weapons inspectors will be doing the work on the ground to aid in removing the chemical agents and their precursors, they won’t be the ones to decide whether Syria is cooperating fully. Instead, that responsibility falls on the Executive Council, a 41-member panel that makes the political decisions of the organization."  Hayes Brown at Think Progress.

Africa

Africa vs. the ICC.  "Kenya is canvassing support for a possible walk-out by African states from the International Criminal Court, whose prosecution of elected Kenyan leaders has revived accusations ... that the court unfairly targets Africans. The start last week of the trial for crimes against humanity of Kenyan Deputy President William Ruto, with President Uhuru Kenyatta's trial due in November, has stirred a growing backlash against the Hague-based court from some African governments, which see it as a biased tool of Western powers. ICC prosecutors accuse Ruto and Kenyatta of fomenting ethnic bloodletting that killed about 1,200 people after a disputed election in December 2007."  Pascal Fletcher and Edmund Blair at Reuters.

Somalia - conflict and metaphors all around.  "Donors have pledged 1.8bn euros ... at a conference in Brussels to help Somalia end more than two decades of conflict. The money is part of a 'New Deal' for what is widely regarded as a failed state, officials said. Al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabab dismissed the meeting as 'Belgian waffle'. Al-Shabab is fighting to oust Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's government, the first to be recognised by the US in more than 20 years. The group controls most of southern Somalia, but it has been driven out of the main cities and towns, including the capital Mogadishu, by an African Union (AU) force backing the government."  BBC.

Asia

Kaesong is back up and running.  "Hundreds of South Koreans resumed their cross-border morning commute into North Korea on Monday as a jointly run industrial park that closed after inter-Korean tensions flared earlier this year restarted some operations. The factories of more than 20 companies were scheduled to begin operations at the Kaesong Industrial Complex on Monday ... according to Seoul's Ministry of Unification, which handles inter-Korean affairs. North Korean staff also showed up for work, the ministry said. In April, the North withdrew all of its 53,000 workers from the plant, the first complete stoppage at the nine-year-old Kaesong complex."  Jeyup Kwaak at the Wall Street Journal.

Middle East

Meeting the Syrian opposition.  "Opposition forces battling Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria now number around 100,000 fighters, but after more than two years of fighting they are fragmented into as many as 1,000 bands. The new study by IHS Jane's ... estimates there are around 10,000 jihadists ... fighting for powerful factions linked to al-Qaeda. Another 30,000 to 35,000 are hardline Islamists who ... are focused purely on the Syrian war rather than a wider international struggle. There are also at least a further 30,000 moderates belonging to groups that have an Islamic character, meaning only a small minority of the rebels are linked to secular or purely nationalist groups."  Ben Farmer and Ruth Sherlock at the Telegraph.

For chemical weapons inspectors, Syria is a whole new ballgame.  "The job of an international chemical weapons inspector is one of the most dangerous in the world. Inspectors have to seek out some of the most poisonous substances known to mankind and dismantle bombs filled with deadly nerve gas. So it is remarkable that, after more than two decades ... not a single inspector has been killed. But Syria presents a new kind of challenge ... The inspectors could soon be embarking on a task that has never been attempted: disarming a country of its weapons of mass destruction in the midst of a war."  Julian Borger and Ian Sample at the Guardian.

Turkey still has Syria problems.  "Turkey said its warplanes shot down a Syrian helicopter on Monday after it crossed into Turkish airspace and the government warned it had taken all necessary measures to defend itself against any further such violations. Turkey scrambled two F-16 jets along the border between its southern Hatay province and Syria after warning the Mi-17 helicopter it was approaching Turkish airspace ... Syria called the reaction 'hasty' and accused Turkey of trying to escalate tensions along the border."  Saif Tawfiq at Reuters.

Bets on whether this happens?  "Iran’s hunt for its next animal astronaut may turn to the distinctive and locally named Persian cat, an official said Monday, in another possible step by the country’s ambitious aerospace program that has also raised Western concerns about spillover military applications. The report by the official IRNA news agency comes seven months after Iran claimed it launched a monkey out of earth’s atmosphere and successfully returned it home. The account, however, faced international questions after photos appeared to show different monkeys in pre- and post-launch images."  Associated Press.

South America

I've seen a lot of trends, but this one is real bad.  "In Venezuela, 17 women have died in the past 12 months as a result of liquid silicone buttock injections. The procedure, which ... an estimated 30 percent of Venezuelan women aged 18 to 50 have undergone, attempts to achieve a figure thought to be more attractive ... The death toll resulting from these injections has risen since they became widely available in 2008 ... Despite being illegal in Venezuela ... the country’s Association of Cosmetic Surgeons estimates that 2,000 women every month are receiving injections of this biopolymer, either at home or illegally at unlicensed businesses."  Alasdair Baverstock at the Atlantic.

Miscellaneous

The downfall of Elizabeth O'Bagy.  "Elizabeth O’Bagy, the Syria researcher at the center of a week-long controversy surrounding her academic credentials ... admitted for the first time ... she was never enrolled in a Ph.D. program despite representations she made to the press and multiple organizations for whom she worked. O’Bagy ... was fired from her job as the lead Syria researcher at the Institute for the Study of War on Sept. 10 after it was revealed that she misled her bosses by telling them she had completed a dissertation defense for a Georgetown Ph.D."  Josh Rogin at the Daily Beast.