Fiscal Fights
The Overview
Why Dems are united in the fiscal battles. "Republicans have several ... goals in the current government-shutdown impasse. Democrats ... have just one. It's called 'break the fever.' Breaking the fever is code for ending the cycle of recurring, last-minute crises over spending bills and increases in the nation's borrowing limit—the debt ceiling. The White House believes these crises give outsize power to a minority of conservative House Republicans who don't have the strength to push their agenda into law but can, in a crisis, stop the action. More important, Democrats are convinced they must break the cycle now, or see much of the Obama second-term agenda sink away." Gerald F. Seib at the Wall Street Journal.
Still the GOP's fault. "Make no mistake: It’s paranoia. Despite all the hype, members of the House hardly ever lose renomination, at least outside of redistricting cycles ... Sure — some paranoia about elections is actually a very useful thing in a democracy. But this goes way beyond healthy. At any rate, the key point is that the reason the government is closed, and the reason a debt-limit breach is very possible, is because mainstream House conservatives who believe these things are a terrible idea are refusing to do anything about it." Jonathan Bernstein at the Washington Post.
The supercommittee plan is as ridiculous as ever. "Why is this supercommittee idea ridiculous ... First, we've tried this, over and over again ... 'Here is a partial list of bipartisan budget negotiations we've had since 2010: The Simpson-Bowles Commission.The Domenici-Rivlin commission. The Cantor-Biden talks. The Obama-Boehner debt-ceiling negotiations. The Gang of Six talks. The 'Supercommittee.' The Obama-Boehner fiscal-cliff talks. All these negotiations have one thing in common: They ultimately failed.' ... They failed because Republicans refused to consider concessions as part of a larger compromise. Has that position suddenly changed? Not even a little." Steve Benen at Maddowblog.
The list of things that Obama has compared the Republicans to - spoiler alert, the list is pretty negative. Josh Voorhees at Slate.
7 habits that will cause the GOP to lose the battles. David Frum at the Daily Beast.
Shutdown
Why we might be in for a prolonged shutdown, in one graph. Derek Thompson at the Atlantic.
The GOP accomplished a lot, just not its 'goal.' "What have House Republicans managed to accomplish in a week of government shutdown? Damage the livelihood of millions of Americans? Check ... Waste billions of taxpayer dollars? Check ... Interfere with key government operations? Check ... Rattle the markets, slow an economy in recovery, interrupt potentially lifesaving research at the National Institutes of Health? Check, check and check. Derail the hated Obamacare? Ch . . . — oh, no, wait a minute. That was the GOP’s ostensible purpose for this travesty of misgovernment, but the online insurance markets created by that law opened on schedule last week and continue to operate." The Washington Post Editorial Board.
The State Department dodged the blow. "John Kerry’s State Department appears to have largely avoided the pain. At Foggy Bottom ... only 340 employees have been sent home. The department recently informed Congress of several plans to spend money on non-critical items ... In addition, its Iran negotiating team is fully funded and moving forward with plans to meet Iranian government officials ... Members of Congress and administration officials say the State Department has been able to shield the blow ... because it still has money left from the last fiscal year and its funding mechanisms allow for most programs to carry money over during the crisis." Josh Rogin at the Daily Beast.
And the CIA is getting back to work. "Starting Wednesday ... the Central Intelligence Agency will begin recalling some employees 'who are necessary to carry out the CIA's core missions,' ...Those missions include foreign intelligence collection, all-source analysis, covert action, and counterintelligence. Approximately 12,500 CIA employees have reportedly been out of work since the government shutdown began." Shane Harris at Killer Apps.
10 ways the shutdown is making us less safe. Lydia DePillis at Wonkblog.
Shutdown is bad - disease outbreaks. "While the government is shut down, with food-safety personnel and disease detectives sent home ... a major foodborne-illness outbreak has begun ... The Food Safety and Inspection Service of the US Department of Agriculture announced that 'an estimated 278 illnesses … reported in 18 states' have been caused by chicken contaminated with Salmonella Heidelberg ... This is the exact situation that CDC and other about-to-be-furloughed federal personnel warned about last week ... That means that the lab work and molecular detection that can link far-apart cases and define the size and seriousness of outbreaks are not happening." Maryn McKenna at Wired.
Shutdown is bad - food. "If the shutdown drags on past Nov. 1, many state governments will not have the money to cover their citizens’ food stamps. Another nutrition program, Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), could also run out of money ... On top of all that, more Head Start programs, which often provide free meals to infants from low-income families, may be forced to close due to lack of federal funds, All of these lost meals will cause more people to turn towards the nation’s food banks, at a time when they are less equipped than ever to deal with increased demand." Ned Resnikoff at MSNBC.
Shutdown is bad - college sexual assault investigations. "Victims of sexual assault are also experiencing the ripple effects of the government shutdown. According to an Education Department spokesman, the federal government shutdown has temporarily suspended investigations by the Office of Civil Rights, the unit at the Department of Education responsible for handling sexual assault cases on college campuses." Clare Kim at MSNBC.
Shutdown is bad - military death payments. "Less fortunate have been the families of those killed in service of their country ... What the federal shutdown has done, however, is make it so that the Pentagon is unsure of its ability to pay for the deceased’s families to fly out to Delaware to meet them. Nor will their families receive the automatic 'death gratuity' ... The $100,000 payment, usually wired electronically within 36 hours and meant to cover the expenses of funerals and other financial expenses, is on hold until the Congress passes a budget and reopens the federal government." Hayes Brown at Think Progress.
Oh come on... "Head Start programs have been shuttered, small businesses can’t get loans and hundreds of thousands of federal government employees are furloughed. But the exclusive gyms available only to members of Congress have remained open throughout the shutdown ... The House gym features a swimming pool, basketball courts, paddleball courts, a sauna, a steam room and flat screen TVs. While towel service is unavailable, taxpayers remain on the hook for cleaning and maintenance, which has been performed daily throughout the shutdown. There are also costs associated with the power required to heat the pools and keep the lights on." Judd Legum at Think Progress.
Debt Ceiling
Explaining the debt ceiling crisis. Heidi Moore at the Guardian.
How the debt ceiling fight might end. "Senate Democrats will move a clean bill to raise the debt ceiling. They'll be joined by a handful of Senate Republicans who are furious over the shutdown ... and genuinely scared that the debt ceiling might be breached ... House Republican aides ... thought it mattered if the Senate passed a clean debt-ceiling increase ... If the Senate didn't pass a clean debt-ceiling increase it would embolden House Republicans ... If House Republicans really can't figure out a solution and really can't find a way to turn the polls or negotiate with President Obama, it would provide a vehicle that more mainstream Republicans could ultimately flee to." Ezra Klein and Evan Soltas at Wonkblog.
Politics
Abortion
Elections
Looking inside the Romney campaign - despite the post election narrative, they knew they were toast. "Immediately after the November election, all of the reporting suggested that the Romney camp was in total shock ... Well, that wasn’t true — even within the Romney campaign ... One senior Romney strategist told us that his simulations based on the campaign’s internal polls gave Romney an 18% chance of winning by the end. This same strategist told us that these simulations never showed Romney being more likely to win than Obama, even after the first debate when the polls narrowed." John Sides at the Monkey Cage.
The shutdown might help Dems in the House. "Rep. Steve Israel ... told Dem lawmakers ... that GOP shutdown shenanigans were giving Dems a big recruiting boost, by prompting reluctant Dem candidates to express renewed interest in running in very tough GOP-held districts ... If there is anything that can put the House GOP majority at risk, it is a protracted governing crisis ... Beyond the question of whether the House GOP majority is invulnerable, it’s not inconceivable that better Dem recruiting could have at least a chance of reducing the size of that majority, which could make things even more of a nightmare for Speaker John Boehner than they are now." Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.
But it probably won't be enough. "Whether Democrats can translate public opposition into significant gains in the House is far less clear ... There are plenty of reasons for caution. The combination of gerrymandering, strong Republican incumbents, and weak Democratic recruiting make it very difficult for the Democrats to take the House. And if the polling is clear on anything, it’s that President Clinton was better positioned than President Obama—yet Democrats didn’t come close to taking back the House in 1996. So although it’s clear that the public is more upset at Republicans than Democrats, it remains to be seen whether the GOP will suffer great costs." Nate Cohn at the New Republic.
Or, Dems might absorb most of the political damage. "The political arguments over the shutdown and debt ceiling fight may not matter that much at all ... It's consumer sentiment that tends to have the greatest impact on approval ratings and hence elections. After the last go-round on the debt ceiling, the economy had started to pick up by the end of October 2011, and Obama's approval rating followed. But the lesson for Democrats who may be thinking smugly that the Republicans will take the biggest hit for the federal shutdown and government default angst is that if the economy goes south as a result, then it'll likely be the Democratic president who sustains the most damage." Harry J. Enten at the Guardian.
McAuliffe lead over Cuccinelli grows in Virginia's gubernatorial race. "Democrat Terry McAuliffe has opened up a significant lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli in the Virginia governor’s race amid broad public disapproval of the federal government shutdown ... McAuliffe, the former national Democratic Party chairman, is now 9 points ahead of Cuccinelli, the current state attorney general, in a race that also includes Libertarian nominee Robert Sarvis ... McAuliffe drew support from 44 percent of Virginians versus 35 percent for Cuccinelli and 12 percent for Sarvis. Four weeks from Election Day, McAuliffe also leads Cuccinelli in a one-on-one contest, 52 percent to 42 percent." Alexander Burns at Politico.
Federal Reserve
Janet Yellen for Fed Chair. "President Barack Obama nominated Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen ... to run the world's most influential central bank, praising her consensus-building skills and saying more needed to be done to boost U.S. employment. Yellen, an advocate for aggressive action to stimulate economic growth through low interest rates and large-scale bond purchases, would replace Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, whose second term ends on January 31. The nomination will put Yellen on course to be the first woman to lead the institution and the first to head a central bank in any Group of Seven industrial nation." Jeff Mason and Mark Felsenthal at Reuters.
Here is the biggest challenge she faces. "President Obama's decision to nominate Janet Louise Yellen to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve System is an endorsement of this simple idea: That the central bank's expansive efforts to support economic growth and bring joblessness down are helping the recovery, and should continue ... Her great challenge as Fed chair, if confirmed, will be to decide when and how the central bank should make the pivot from its current orientation, going all-out to try to fight a weak economy, toward one of worrying more about the after-effects of their six years of interventionism." Neil Irwin at Wonkblog.
Foreign Policy
This is big. Like, really big news. "The Obama administration will announce curbs on a significant part of nonessential military aid to Egypt ... marking a shift in America’s relations with one of its key Arab allies ... The primary focus will be a hold on the shipment of a dozen AH-64D Apache helicopters from an order placed four years ago. Provision of crucial spare parts for the extensive U.S. military equipment that Egypt already has and training for the country’s armed forces will continue ... Aid that supports counterterrorism initiatives and Egypt’s relations with Israel, including security efforts in the Sinai Peninsula and monitoring along the border with the Gaza Strip, would also continue." Anne Gearan and Scott Wilson at the Washington Post.
How the US is interrogating the Al Qaeda suspect we captured in Libya. Charlie Savage and Benjamin Weiser at the New York Times.
Don't rush the South Korea OPCON transfer. "Pressure is mounting on the general to ensure that South Korea takes charge of most elements of alliance command responsibilities by 2015. That date, already a delay from the original plan developed in the Bush administration to transfer command by 2012, seems overdue to some on Capitol Hill, where clamors for more allied burdensharing in a time of American austerity are obviously mounting. But ensuring fair burdensharing is not the principal prism through which this issue should be viewed ... In Korea, our preeminent concerns need to be unity of command and effectiveness of our combined deterrent against a still very potent North Korean threat." Michael E. O'Hanlon at Brookings.
GOP
The shutdown is a reflection of a splintered GOP. "The struggle has exposed a rift between the party’s confrontational, populist, tea party wing and its traditional business and establishment wing. These tensions reflect fundamental questions about the direction of a party whose rightward shift ... has helped intensify the political conflict and changed the calculus of governance generally ... Republicans are divided about whether to be a party of 'no' or a party that can fashion a more positive vision for conservative governance. The shutdown has brought these differences into even sharper focus. But if there is an obvious resolution, party leaders haven’t found it." Dan Balz at the Washington Post.
Understanding the Tea Party. "The Tea Party is better understood as a reactionary conservative force. It prefers the sorts of dramatic changes that threaten the stability traditional conservatives usually seek to preserve. Reactionary conservatives fear losing their way of life amid social change. To preserve their group’s social prestige, they’re willing to undermine long-established norms and institutions. Furthermore, reactionary conservatives are more likely to subscribe to conspiracy theories ... Reactionary conservatives will, therefore, claim that their 'enemies' are destroying their way of life. Compromise is commensurate with defeat, not political expediency." Christopher Parker at the Monkey Cage.
The anti-compromise party. "YouGov, polling for The Economist, asked Americans whether they want a member of Congress who 'compromises to get things done' or one who 'sticks to their principles no matter what.' Democrats and independents, by wide margins, chose compromise. But a slim majority of Republicans preferred standing on principle. Republicans, it seems, are different: They value compromise far less and principle far more than other Americans. In refusing to give ground, then, Republican politicians are reflecting their base's priorities." Molly Ball at the Atlantic.
Health
The Affordable Care Act is here to stay. "While Republicans were throwing their silly tantrum, Obamacare became a fact. There is no turning back. The point of no return was reached when millions of people crashed the websites of the new Affordable Care Act exchanges trying to buy health insurance ... Someday, if the GOP captures the presidency and both houses of Congress, President Obama's health care law could be altered or even repealed. But it would be replaced by some new program that does the same thing, because there is no politically viable way to snatch away the medical insurance that customers are buying through the exchanges." Eugene Robinson at the Washington Post.
The Affordable Care Act and social mobility. "The policy goal of the Affordable Care Act—high quality, affordable health care—is vitally important, not only in itself, but also for social mobility. The United States historically has had large differences in quality of health and care across income and socioeconomic groups, also known as health inequality ... If a child’s health had no impact on their education or future wages, health inequality might be less of concern (at least for those interested in social mobility). But there’s lots of evidence that prenatal and childhood health matters a lot for life chances." Joanna Venator and Richard V. Reeves at Brookings.
How the Supreme Court undermined the ACA. This is disgraceful. "Remember a year and a half ago when the court narrowly upheld the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act? Turns out, it didn’t -- at least not for the 8 million poor Americans in 26 states who now won’t get coverage as a direct result of the decision. The rollout of Obamacare’s health-insurance exchanges this month has made clear just how far conservative activism has gone to thwart the law’s intent ... It is ... absurd ... that the law will now subsidize coverage for Americans well-off enough to buy coverage from the insurance exchanges while doing nothing for people who are too poor to participate." Noah Feldman at Bloomberg.
Immigration
SCOTUSwatch
The possible McCutcheon disaster. "McCutcheon v. FEC will be the Court’s most significant campaign finance decision since Citizens United. The McCutcheon decision could strike down the aggregate contribution limits that have been a staple of our campaign finance regulations since the 1970s. And in doing so, the decision may have far-reaching consequences for how our nation’s elections are financed. Without adequate additional safeguards, the decision has the potential to further undermine the transparency of our elections, and to exacerbate the dependence of our elected officials on the nation’s super-wealthy elites." Jen Heerwig and Kate Shaw at the Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics.
Treasury Department
Five things you should know about the new hundred dollar bill. Ylan Q. Mui at Wonkblog.
Virginia
Goodbye, idiotic sodomy law. Also worth pointing out, that attorney general is the GOP candidate for governor of Virginia. "The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday denied a petition by Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli seeking to appeal a lower court ruling declaring the state’s Crimes Against Nature or sodomy law unconstitutional. By refusing to hear the case, the high court allowed a decision in March striking down the law by the Fourth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals in Richmond to stand, ending efforts by Cuccinelli and other officials to get the state’s ban on oral and anal sex between consenting adults reinstated." Lou Chibbaro Jr. at the Washington Blade.
Voting Rights
Voter suppression by any other name... is still voter suppression. "Remember this phrase: two-tier voting. You may be hearing more about it. Officials in Arizona and Kansas are making preparations for elections with two categories of voters. There will be those who provided proof of citizenship when they registered to vote, and will therefore be able to vote in all local, state, and federal elections. And then there will be those who did not provide proof of citizenship when they registered. Those people will only be able to vote in federal contests -- if at all." Eric Lach at Talking Points Memo.
International
Global
Five global health concerns. Laurie Garrett at the Atlantic.
And one global health problem that might become less of a problem. "British drug maker GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) is set to seek regulatory approval for the world’s first malaria vaccine after trials with the drug caused a 50 percent drop in the number of malaria cases in African children. The nearly 50 percent drop in childhood malaria cases, while dramatic, traditionally wouldn't make a vaccine a sure thing, as most childhood vaccines provide at least 90 percent protection ... But, the sheer scope of the devastating impact of malaria, particularly in the developing world, makes grading on a curve more than acceptable, says GSK." Elliot Hannon at Slate.
Asia
The North Korean hunger epidemic. "The large number of chronically hungry North Koreans stands as a challenge to ... World Food Day on October 16. North Korea in 1981 pledged ... to realize the 'fundamental right of everyone to be free from hunger' and to an adequate standard of living, 'including adequate food.' ... Yet according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) ... as many as 7.6 million North Koreans, or 31 percent of the population of 24.5 million, were estimated to be 'undernourished' from 2011 to 2013, that is, unable to acquire enough food." Roberta Cohen at Brookings.
At least their nuclear reactors are up and running ... oh wait, that's bad. "North Korea restarted its Yongbyon nuclear reactor, a South Korean lawmaker said, as the North put its troops on high alert and said it’s 'ready to confront' the U.S. and the South over naval drills set for this week ... The finding backed up satellite-imagery analysis this month that indicated the North resumed nuclear activity there. The imagery from last month showed water being released into the Kuryong River from the reactor facility at North Korea’s main nuclear complex." Cynthia Kim and Andrew Davis at Bloomberg.
The shutdown hits Indonesia relations. "An unfortunate casualty of ... Obama’s cancelled trip to Asia was the missed opportunity to cement stronger U.S. ties with Indonesia, the emerging giant of Southeast Asia. The bilateral relationship will survive, of course, as will the 'comprehensive partnership' ... But the president’s no-show ... deprived the United States of a symbolic occasion to highlight how much unites these two boisterous democracies. It also sowed doubts among Indonesian elites about how seriously they should take the U.S. 'pivot' to Asia ... The Obama administration should recall that the key to success in diplomacy ... is mostly just showing up." Stewart M. Patrick at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Maldives elections 2.0 "The Maldives Supreme Court has annulled results from the first round of voting in presidential elections, and called a fresh ballot by 20 October. The Court had postponed the second round of voting amid allegations of electoral fraud." BBC.
Europe
Europe, admit it. You're way behind on drone tech. "A tally of unmanned aircraft owned by various European air forces tells a different story: all the large and advanced drones in service in Europe were imported from the U.S. or Israel. Though they make smaller drones, European suppliers have flown only experimental big machines and haven't manufactured any large drones to offer for sale. That is because governments have been unwilling to earmark funding for development programs, and even five years ago military-procurement agencies weren't pushing hard to get homegrown products into the air." David Pearson at the Wall Street Journal.
Middle East
Egypt: still a land of violence. "The lethal conflict between Egypt’s military-backed government and its Islamist opponents escalated on Monday, with an expansion of attacks against government targets, signs that the authorities have failed to secure the streets and that both sides refuse to back down." David D. Kirkpatrick at the New York Times.
Polisci
The myth of Congressional moderates. "Too narrow a focus on rules obscures a more profound political reality ... In general, Congressional moderates are more closely aligned to their parties than is understood. Often their defections from party ranks occur when it is clear that their party does not need their votes to prevail on a given issue. Moderates frequently represent constituencies in which their parties are not very popular. This gives them a political incentive to create the impression of a certain distance between themselves and their party. Leadership understands this and does not punish legislators for such behavior." David Karol at the Monkey Cage.
Fact checkers are doing their jobs, and having a measurable impact. "Political fact-checkers ... are in an unenviable position. There so many politicians and pundit spreading so many misinterpretations, misleading characterizations, and outright falsehoods that it'd be impossible for the checkers to catch them all. They'd be forgiven for occasionally wondering if their project was actually useful. Turns out it is. Two political scientists — Brendan Nyhan at Dartmouth and Jason Reifler at the University of Exeter — have conducted a field experiment ... that shows that state legislators really are less likely to mislead the public when they know fact-checkers are watching." Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog.
Science
Self-assembling robots. The future is now. "They're called M-Blocks and the tiny, cubical robots that can spin, flip and jump their way into new configurations are the brainchild of scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology." Scott Neuman + Video at NPR.
Explaining the central limit theorem, with bunnies and dragons. Video at i09.
A breakthrough for nuclear fusion. "Researchers at a US lab have passed a crucial milestone on the way to their ultimate goal of achieving self-sustaining nuclear fusion. Harnessing fusion ... could provide an unlimited and cheap source of energy. But to be viable, fusion power plants would have to produce more energy than they consume, which has proven elusive. Now, a breakthrough by scientists at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) could boost hopes of scaling up fusion ... During an experiment in late September, the amount of energy released through the fusion reaction exceeded the amount of energy being absorbed by the fuel - the first time this had been achieved at any fusion facility." Paul Rincon at BBC.
Explaining the coral / dead zones phenomenon. "The mystery of how coral reefs thrive in 'ocean deserts' has been solved, scientists say. Reefs are among Earth's most vibrant ecosystems, yet they flourish in waters lacking nutrients - a phenomenon known as Darwin's Paradox. A team found that sponges keep the reef alive - by recycling vast amounts of organic matter to feed snails, crabs and other creatures." James Morgan at BBC.
Miscellaneous
The United Sports of America, in map form. Josh Levin at Slate.
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