NSA
The Overview
First things first - blame Congress. "There is, to be sure, plenty of blame to go around. The NSA has pushed the limits; federal courts approved the surveillance programs; George W. Bush got this ball rolling; President Obama kept this ball rolling; and telecoms have clearly participated in the efforts. But save plenty of your blame -- perhaps most of your blame -- for Congress. Did you notice the word I used in each of the other cases? The key word: law ... Everything that happened here was fully within the law. So if something was allowed that shouldn't have been allowed, the problem is, in the first place, the laws. And that means Congress." Steve Benen at Maddowblog.
Sooner or later, the public will (probably) stop caring about this. "In reality, the collective reaction was probably something closer to this: Meh ... Privacy is sort of like the deficit: In the abstract, voters rate it a serious concern. But drill down, and they don’t want to cut the entitlements that balloon federal spending — or end programs that have prevented terrorist attacks. Especially if Americans don’t believe their own computers and phones are being monitored, they are willing to give the government a long leash." James Hohmann at Politico.
How much privacy should Internet users expect? "Following last week's NSA surveillance revelations, several tech writers have advanced the argument that anyone who regularly uses services such as Facebook or Gmail or carries a smartphone is kidding themselves if they believe their information will be kept private. Indeed, in a National Journal poll taken before the most recent story broke, 85 percent of respondents said they believe it is likely that personal online data and phone records 'available for businesses, government, individuals, and other groups to access without your consent.'" Joshua Keating at War of Ideas.
Partisanship and the NSA. "The shifting views of Democrats and Republicans between 2006 and 2013 is reminiscent of many other trends noted on this blog ... But there’s one way in which these results show how there isn’t partisanship in everything ... In the 2013 poll, there are only muted partisan differences in views of the NSA’s surveillance program ... There is bipartisan support for this program at the elite level, and unsurprisingly the public reflects this consensus." John Sides at the Monkey Cage.
Congress's priorities are quite obvious. "Cantor said Obama administration officials would start briefing Capitol Hill today on how information about the NSA program was revealed by Edward Snowden, the 29-year old Booz Allen Hamilton contractor who was working with the NSA ... But while many are outraged at the existence of the NSA program itself, Cantor indicated that Congress will focus on whether Snowden broke any laws when he revealed its existence. Cantor said programs like the one run by NSA are needed to help thwart ongoing terrorist threats against the United States." Pete Kasperowicz at the Hill.
Was Congress out of the loop? Not exactly. "Amid the ongoing controversy over the administration’s surveillance programs, many are asking to what extent Congress was kept in the loop. Now there’s a partial answer: National security officials briefed lawmakers 13 times between 2009 and 2013 about Section 215 of the Patriot Act, according to a senior administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the classified nature of some of the meetings." Juliet Eilperin at the Washington Post.
On FISA courts and 'rubber stamping.' "Timothy Edgar, who was a top lawyer with the American Civil Liberties Union, said he believed the FISA court was a rubber stamp until he saw the process firsthand when he became a senior civil-liberties official in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence ... "It's definitely not a rubber stamp," he said in an interview Sunday ... It's just more complicated than that." The reason so many orders are approved, he said, is that the Justice Department office that manages the process vets the applications rigorously ... getting the order approved by the Justice Department lawyers is perhaps the biggest hurdle to approval." Evan Perez at the Wall Street Journal.
Inside 'Q Group,' the directorate hunting down Edward Snowden. "The people who began chasing Snowden work for the Associate Directorate for Security and Counterintelligence ... The directorate, sometimes known as 'the Q Group,' is continuing to track Snowden now that he’s outed himself ... The ... directorate serves as the NSA’s internal police force ... watching the agency’s watchers for behavior that could pose an intelligence risk. It has the authority to interview an NSA contractor or employee’s known associates, and even to activate a digital dragnet capable of finding out where a target travels, what the target has purchased, and the target’s online activity." Eli Lake at the Daily Beast.
Inside TAO, the NSA's top-secret China hacking group. "A highly secretive unit of the National Security Agency (NSA) ... called the Office of Tailored Access Operations, or TAO, has successfully penetrated Chinese computer and telecommunications systems for almost 15 years ... TAO's mission is simple. It collects intelligence information on foreign targets by surreptitiously hacking into their computers and telecommunications systems, cracking passwords, compromising the computer security systems protecting the targeted computer, stealing the data stored on computer hard drives, and then copying all the messages and data traffic passing within the targeted email and text-messaging systems." Matthew Aid at Foreign Policy.
Booz Allen and Beyond
Snowden's employer made its money from government contracts. "Edward J. Snowden’s employer, Booz Allen Hamilton, has become one of the largest and most profitable corporations in the United States almost exclusively by serving ... the government of the United States. Over the last decade, much of the company’s growth has come from selling expertise, technology and manpower to the National Security Agency and other federal intelligence agencies. Booz Allen earned ... 23 percent of the company’s total revenue, from intelligence work during its most recent fiscal year." Binyamin Appelbaum and Eric Lipton at the New York Times.
Seven facts about Booz Allen Hamilton. Neil Irwin at Wonkblog.
Everything you need to know about intelligence contractors. Hayes Brown at Think Progress.
Edward Snowden
Who is Edward Snowden? "He had worked for the CIA and as a contractor for the NSA, he wrote, and had lived a 'comfortable and privileged life.' But he was also deeply uncomfortable with the knowledge that had already been afforded to him in his brief career — knowledge about the U.S. surveillance that officials said they were carrying out to keep America safe ... Snowden, who identified himself Sunday as the main source behind recent disclosures of sweeping government surveillance programs, worked for years inside the U.S. intelligence community. As he did so, he said, he became disillusioned with American government policies." Barton Gellman and Jerry Markon at the Washington Post.
And his legal strategy seems risky. "Among the crimes listed on the U.S.-Hong Kong agreement as within the bounds of extradition, one offense in particular stands out: 'the unlawful use of computers.' ... In short, Snowden's legal strategy depends on convincing a judge that he is the victim of political persecution, a legal strategy that has little precedent in Hong Kong ... Taken together with the fact that Snowden could have fled to a country without an extradition treaty with the United States -- or followed in the footsteps of Julian Assange and sought asylum in Ecuador -- Snowden's decision is extremely perplexing." Elias Groll at Foreign Policy.
PRISM
PRISM and the media hype. "A central point ... as the NSA data mining story has unfolded is how little we actually know. It’s increasingly clear that key details of what thought we knew are wrong ... Many facts reported by The Guardian‘s Glenn Greenwald and The Washington Post, who broke most of the initial story, were at best exaggerated ... While some very key details of what has been reported are wrong, the updated story is hardly uninteresting. The federal government is still collecting massive amounts of information on its citizens ... That it’s apparently not doing it in real time and that the private companies are apparently applying at least some scrutiny to what they hand over doesn’t change that." James Joyner at Outside the Beltway.
Verizon
Majority of Americans approve of NSA phone tracking. "A majority of Americans – 56% – say the National Security Agency’s (NSA) program tracking the telephone records of millions of Americans is an acceptable way for the government to investigate terrorism, though a substantial minority – 41% – say it is unacceptable. And while the public is more evenly divided over the government’s monitoring of email and other online activities to prevent possible terrorism, these views are largely unchanged since 2002, shortly after the 9/11 terrorist attacks." Pew Research Center.
Miscellaneous
Elections
2013 - NYC
Things look good for Quinn in New York City, historically speaking. "The early Democratic front-runner in recent New York City mayoral races has a near perfect record in going on to win the party’s nomination, according to an analysis of public opinion surveys conducted since 1989. If that pattern holds true in this year’s race, Speaker Christine C. Quinn of the City Council will very likely win the Democratic nomination in September. She has led in every primary poll conducted in 2013." Micah Cohen at FiveThirtyEight.
2013 - New Jersey
Booker is in the New Jersey Senate race. "To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Newark Mayor Cory Booker announced his entry into the race for the Democratic nomination for the late Frank Lautenberg’s Senate seat today ... The 44-year-old Booker had previously filed paperwork to run in the 2014 Senate election, but had not officially declared his candidacy when Lautenberg died. Many in the political world considered it all but a certainty he would win a Democratic primary next year ... Booker has distinct advantages, but not as many as he would have in 2014.” Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.
And he appears to be a juggernaut. "Cory Booker remains far ahead of the rest of the pack ... 53 percent of self-described Democrats say they’ll vote for Booker, while 10 percent pick Rep. Rush Holt ... and 9 percent back Rep. Frank Pallone ... To some extent ... this early poll reflects the value of Booker’s name recognition ... Booker’s opponents ... will have to find a way to simultaneously increase their own name recognition and take Booker down a peg or two. All of this during a time period when a lot of voters are unlikely to be paying a lot of attention to politics. That’s not going to be easy, and it may well turn out to be pretty much impossible." Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.
2013 - Virginia
2014
2016
Miscellaneous
Fewer Americans identify as economic or social conservatives in 2013. "Forty-one percent of Americans now characterize their economic views as 'conservative,' or 'very conservative,' the lowest since President Barack Obama took office in 2009 ... This ... has been accompanied by an uptick in the percentage identifying as economically moderate -- now 37% of Americans, up from 32% last year ... The percentage of Americans describing their social views as 'liberal' or 'very liberal' has achieved a new peak of 30% -- in line with Gallup's recent finding that Americans are more accepting on a number of moral issues." Gallup.
The electoral implications of single mother demographics. "Single mothers are on the rise ... according to a new study by the Pew Research Center. That growth, coupled with the overwhelmingly Democratic nature of single moms, provides another fascinating lens through which to view the changing demographics of the United States — and the challenges those changes pose for a Republican Party hoping to reclaim the White House ... Dig further into the exit polling from 2012 and you see Obama heavily overperforming among single mothers across all demographic groups, not just those that tended to favor him in November." Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post.
Politics
Congress
Breaking down the Senate by appearances on Sunday news shows. The New York Times.
DOD
Well, this looks like a step in the right direction on sexual assault. "A two-star general who commands U.S. Army forces in Japan has been suspended from his duties for allegedly failing to report or properly investigate an allegation of sexual assault ... Until the investigation ... is completed, Maj. Gen. James C. Boozer will take his place in Japan, the Army said ... Typically, an officer who has been suspended rather than relieved of command could be reinstated in his job if cleared of all allegations. But this won't happen in Harrison's case because Boozer already was scheduled to take over the command in Japan next week, which is sooner than the investigation is expected to be completed." Robert Burns at the Associated Press.
5 myths about sexual assault in the military. Lindsay Rosenthal and Katie Miller at Real Clear Politics.
The Economy
Employment in the US is lagging, internationally speaking. "The American economy may be the world’s biggest, but when it comes to job creation since the recession hit at the end of 2007, it is far from a leader ... The United States economy is performing relatively well by some yardsticks ... but the robust job market ... remains out of reach. While several European countries have fared worse, Canada, Sweden and even Britain, which is trapped in yet another recession, have enjoyed healthier job gains than the United States. In fact, of the nine countries surveyed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, only perennially-troubled Italy and Japan performed worse." Nelson Schwartz at the New York Times.
And bad priorities may prevent the economy from growing further. "Many ... mistakenly believe that the ultra-wealthy are the source of American prosperity ... Consumption is what drives investment, not the other way around ... But consumption is constrained by the continuing impoverishment of the middle class due to wage stagnation and high unemployment ... There appears to be no support for an expansionary fiscal policy, a federal jobs program, or a more stimulative monetary policy. Sadly, this means there is no end in sight to middle class malaise, which means that economic growth likely will be stuck where it is for the foreseeable future." Bruce Bartlett at the Fiscal Times.
Why isn't unemployment a bigger deal? "Why isn’t reducing unemployment a major policy priority? One answer may be that inertia is a powerful force, and it’s hard to get policy changes absent the threat of disaster ... Another answer is that the unemployed don’t have much of a political voice. Profits are sky-high, stocks are up, so things are O.K. for the people who matter, right? ... A third answer is that ... the monetary hawks ... who keep warning that low interest rates will have dire consequences ... have ... gotten even more vociferous ... There’s nothing normal or necessary about mass long-term unemployment." Paul Krugman at the New York Times.
More austerity, more inequality. "Just what do austerity policies really do to an economy? ... For those with no trouble borrowing, austerity may have a much simpler and more sinister result: greater inequality ... The answer will depend in large part on what happens to incomes. A lower tax burden is wonderful as long as your income doesn't fall as well -- yet that's exactly what may happen to the long-term unemployed ... There can be no better recipe for greater inequality. In the long term, it will depress economic growth, worsen social problems, and erode our meritocracy. Austerity policies may come clothed in the vestments of virtue and responsibility, but they will hurt our economies." Daniel Altman at Foreign Policy.
Energy and the Environment
Obama to lift federal protection of gray wolves. "The Obama administration ... proposed lifting most remaining federal protections for gray wolves ... a move that would end four decades of recovery efforts but that some scientists said was premature ... Today more than 6,100 wolves roam portions of the Northern Rockies and western Great Lakes ... In the past several years ... protections were lifted in states where the vast majority of the animals now live: Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and portions of Oregon, Washington and Utah ... Protections would remain only for a fledgling population of Mexican gray wolves in the desert Southwest." Matthew Brown and John Flesher at the Associated Press.
Farm Bill
What you need to know about the Senate (and House) farm bills. Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.
The Vitter amendment is ... screwed up policy. "In today’s Senate debate on the farm bill, Senator David Vitter offered — and Senate Democrats accepted — an amendment that would ... bar from SNAP (food stamps), for life, anyone who was ever convicted of one of a specified list of violent crimes at any time ... Given incarceration patterns in the United States, the amendment would have a skewed racial impact. Poor elderly African Americans convicted of a single crime decades ago by segregated Southern juries would be among those hit. The amendment essentially says that rehabilitation doesn’t matter and violates basic norms of criminal justice." Robert Greenstein at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
Fights on direct payments split farmers on regional lines. "The latest proposal for the farm bill ... It's designed to save more than $23 billion over the next 10 years, in part by getting rid of direct payments to farmers. The direct payment program alone costs taxpayers $5 billion per year. The Senate is proposing to replace it with crop insurance and revenue protections in case of falling prices. Midwest corn and soybean farmers generally support the plan, while peanut, cotton and rice farmers in the South argue they are getting a raw deal." Jonathan Ahl at NPR.
The upcoming House fights. "The major issues that supposedly stopped the House leadership from bringing the bill to the floor have been known for two years: whether the House will consider the Agriculture Committee’s $20.5 billion cut to food stamps over 10 years too much or too little; whether a majority will go along with a proposal for a dairy program ... beloved by dairy farmers, or prefer an alternative ... favored by dairy processors; and finally, whether the full House will go along with the Agriculture Committee’s generosity toward crop insurance or want to restrict subsidies and impose conservation compliance, as the Senate has done." Jerry Hagstrom at the National Journal.
Why you should care. "It's not just about farmers. The farm bill is an all-encompassing piece of legislation comprising everything from farm subsidies and crop insurance — which have an indirect impact on food prices — to energy, forestry, food stamps and school lunches." Scott Neuman at NPR.
Financial Reform
Is this what reform looks like? "When Sherrod Brown and David Vitter introduced a bill ... to crack down on big banks, it was met with great fanfare and excitement from reform advocates ... So far, only two co-sponsors have gotten behind the legislation, and one of them says he is having second thoughts. The lukewarm reception to the Brown-Vitter bill illustrates the difficulty that advocates of tougher rules for the largest banks have in advancing their cause on Capitol Hill. In fact ... the only financial regulatory bills showing any sign of life in Congress are a set of proposals that would scale back parts of the 2010 Dodd-Frank law — those concerning derivatives markets." MJ Lee at Politico.
Foreign Policy
Foreign policy in the second term. "Obama wants to play offense, not defense ... He's encouraged Kerry ... to restart negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians ... He's moving toward a new round of nuclear arms reductions with Russia ... He's considering a ... proposal ... to reduce economic sanctions and improve diplomatic relations in exchange for a verifiable freeze in Tehran's nuclear program ... And there's still a long list of unfinished items from the first term: defining the complicated U.S. relationship with China, drawing down U.S. forces in Afghanistan, supporting the sputtering new democracies of the Arab Spring and preventing Syria's civil war from becoming a regional disaster." Doyle McManus at the LA Times.
US and China make progress on North Korea, climate change. "President Obama and President Xi Jinping of China ended two days of informal meetings ... moving closer on pressuring a nuclear North Korea and addressing climate change ... China and the United States agreed to discuss ways to reduce emissions of hydrofluorocarbons, known as HFCs, that are used in refrigerants and insulating foams ... The two presidents held a long discussion on North Korea ... 'They agreed that North Korea has to denuclearize, that neither country will accept North Korea as a nuclear-armed state' and that their two nations would work together to achieve that through pressure on Pyongyang, Mr. Donilon said." Jackie Calmes and Steven Lee Myers at the New York Times.
GOP
Young voters and economic policy. "The most significant finding in the survey was the wholesale rejection of the national Republican Party’s economic agenda ... A majority of young people believe Republican policies played either a major role or the biggest role in bringing about the Great Recession, giving Democrats a 16-point advantage ... After decades of pushing bigger and bigger tax cuts ... Republicans must face the fact that only 3 percent of the next generation wants more tax cuts for the wealthy. Three percent. In a survey taken after the January budget deal that raised taxes on the richest Americans, a majority of young voters still believe those taxes should be even higher." Jon Favreau at the Daily Beast.
Guns
What the CDC would study on guns, if it had federal funding. "Back in January, President Obama signed an executive order directing the Centers on Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to start studying 'the causes of gun violence.' The idea was to restart federal research into the topic after a longtime freeze.But that still left a key question unanswered: What would the CDC actually study, if it could? ... Quite a bit, it seems ... Topics would include the effects of media portrayals of violence and a look at whether 'smart guns' that only fire for registered users could decrease accidents." Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.
I wonder how this could go badly... "Oak Forest is the first neighborhood in the country being trained and equipped by the Armed Citizen Project, a Houston nonprofit that is giving away free shotguns to single women and residents of neighborhoods with high crime rates ... The nonprofit and its supporters say gun giveaways to responsible owners are actually a better way to deter crime. The organization, which plans to offer training classes in Dallas, San Antonio, and Tucson, Arizona, in the next few weeks, is working to expand its giveaways to 15 cities by the end of the year, including Chicago and New York." USA Today.
Health
Medicaid expansion and mental health. "Less than half of Americans living with mental illness receive the treatment they need—a failure that lands large numbers of mentally ill people in jails, emergency rooms, and on the streets. One provision of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, a.k.a Obamacare, would help fix the problem. Under the law, states will get hundreds of billions in federal money over the next ten years to provide health care to 2.7 million poor mentally ill people who are currently uninsured. But 17 states—including some states with among the worst mental-health programs in the country—are rejecting these funds." Erika Eichelberger + charts at Mother Jones.
Feds to allow over-the-counter Plan B sales. "The Obama administration will comply with a court order to allow over-the-counter emergency contraceptive sales to women and girls of all ages ... While the Department of Justice initially appealed this policy, it has now asked a judge with the Eastern District Court of New York to withdraw that challenge, provided he approves the federal government’s plan for compliance." Sarah Kliff at Wonkblog.
Immigration
Media, you frustrate me. "The press really, really, really needs to learn how to talk about what’s happened to the Senate. Everything is being filibustered. Everything. And still newspapers get it wrong ... Sixty votes are needed to defeat a filibuster. The reason 60 are needed is that opponents will filibuster the immigration bill, just as they are filibustering against every bill and every nomination. Ever since January 2009, every single measure has needed 60 senators to support allowing a final vote ... That, in the modern Senate, is a filibuster. Hey, reporters! You’ve had years to learn this. Get it right. Sixty votes are needed to defeat a filibuster. And there’s always a filibuster." Jonathan Bernstein at the Washington Post.
6 problems for immigration reform. Gavin Aronsen at Mother Jones.
And Obamacare is only one. "The question of whether taxpayer-subsidized healthcare should be available to undocumented immigrants with provisional resident status under a proposed comprehensive immigration reform bill drove a wedge between lawmakers ... Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) ... opposed the idea of offering tax-subsidized care like Medicaid to undocumented immigrants or those with provisional status ... Under the Senate bill, those who entered the country illegally would only be eligible for access to Obamacare subsidies after they have been under provisional status for 10 years and have obtained their permanent resident green card." Yumi Araki at Talking Points Memo.
It all depends on the Republicans. "Ultimately, the prospects for real reform may well come down to this question: Can enough Republicans accept immigration reform that does not require unworkable enforcement triggers to precede citizenship, and instead ties the path to legalization to conditions that are reasonable and not designed to scuttle reform before it gets off the ground? Either Rubio can accept that, or not. Either Boehner will allow a House vote on that, or not." Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.
Some reasons for optimism. "The prospects of passage have probably never looked stronger ... Paul Ryan endorsed the House bill. Rubio ... communicated, that he’s not trying to back away but remains as committed as ever ... Republican senator Kelly Ayotte — a vulnerable purple-state Republican, but not one given over to bipartisanship — announced her support for the Senate bill ... John Boehner is beginning to sketch out a road map to try to pass some version of an overhaul in his chamber — a welcome sign for proponents of immigration reform.” The back-from-the-brink signals sent out by Establishment Republicans suggest Boehner and the party’s Establishment don’t want to kill it." Jonathan Chait at New York Magazine.
IRS
Rep. Cummings, 1. Rep. Issa, 0. "House Oversight Committee interview transcripts that clear the White House of wrongdoing ... 'a self-described ‘conservative Republican’ has told investigators that no one at the White House directed the Internal Revenue Service to target tea party groups.' The Maryland Democrat released a transcript Sunday of the committee investigators’ interview with a manager of the IRS’ Cincinnati office. The unidentified man told investigators that workers ... instigated the reviews on their own, that he was unaware of a political motivation ... and that there was no evidence of any White House involvement." Joan Walsh at Salon.
Seriously. It has - nothing - to do with Obama. "A U.S. Internal Revenue Service manager, who described himself as a conservative Republican, told congressional investigators that he and a local colleague decided to give conservative groups the extra scrutiny that has prompted weeks of political controversy ... The manager said he and an underling set aside 'Tea Party' and 'patriot' groups that had applied for tax-exempt status because the organizations appeared to pose a new precedent that could affect future IRS filings." David Morgan and Kim Dixon at Reuters.
Libertarianism
Libertarianism doesn't work. I promise. We already tried this. "We had something close to a small-government libertarian utopia in the late 19th century and we decided it didn’t work. We realized that many Americans would never be able to save enough for retirement and, later, that most of them would be unable to afford health insurance when they were old. Smaller government meant that too many people were poor and that monopolies were formed too easily. And when the Great Depression engulfed us, government was helpless, largely handcuffed by this anti-government ideology until Franklin D. Roosevelt came along." E.J. Dionne Jr. at the Washington Post.
Prisons
International
Global
Global pilgrimages and a possible pandemic are a recipe for disaster. "The Muslim month of fasting, Ramadan, begins July 9 and could draw as many as two million people from around the globe to the holy sites of Saudi Arabia ... Infectious disease control at mass gatherings is always a challenge, but this year even more so. Saudi Arabia is currently waging battle with MERS ... MERS triggers severe pneumonia and kidney failure ... It is a cousin of SARS ... Health officials do not want to pull out the big hammers used during the SARS outbreak ... On the other hand, no one wants umrah and the even larger hajj pilgrimage that will follow in October to trigger a pandemic." Helen Branswell at Scientific American.
Africa
Nelson Mandela hospitalized. "Former President Nelson Mandela has been admitted to hospital in South Africa with a lung infection. A presidential spokesman said he is in a 'serious but stable condition', although he was able to breathe on his own – a 'positive sign'. Mr Mandela, 94, has been ill for some days but deteriorated overnight and was transferred to a hospital in Pretoria. He led the fight against apartheid and is regarded as the father of democratic South Africa." Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.
Pipeline problems. "Sudan's official news agency says the country's president has ordered the closure of pipelines exporting South Sudanese oil ... in response to South Sudan's funding of rebels ... South Sudan, which became independent of Khartoum in 2011, has denied supporting rebels. The two sides had just agreed in March to resume crude exports after a shutdown caused by disputes over oil transit fees. South Sudan must export its oil to international markets through pipelines owned by Sudan that run through its territory." Mohamed Osman at the Associated Press.
Middle East
Is Syria at another turning point? "The Syrian conflict has entered a critical phase with the fall of the town of Qusair to regime troops backed by Hezbollah fighters ... Both sides have made gains and suffered losses over the past six months, so this should be no different. But the discrepancy between the regime’s underlying strengths and the armed opposition’s enduring weaknesses is starting to tell. If the strategic equilibrium that has emerged since November 2012 tips further, it will be a decisive shift in the regime’s favor. The political and military wings of the opposition must address their most serious shortcomings. If they do not, they will be in retreat, if not full flight, by the end of 2013." Yezid Sayigh at the Carnegie Middle East Center.
Syrian rebels refuse to attend peace talks until they receive arms. "The Syrian opposition will not attend the proposed Geneva conference on the crisis in Syria unless rebel fighters receive new supplies of arms and ammunition, the top rebel military commander said Friday. 'If we don’t receive ammunition and weapons to change the position on the ground, to change the balance on the ground, very frankly I can say we will not go to Geneva,' Gen. Salim Idris said in a telephone interview from his headquarters in northern Syria. 'There will be no Geneva.'" Michael Gordon at the New York Times.
The US has about 5,000 troops near Syria. "The Pentagon totally pinky-swears that this has nothing to do with Syria. It just happens to have sent 5,000 troops to neighboring Jordan to participate in a nine-day air defense, disaster relief and humanitarian assistance exercise ... The timing is awfully convenient. The fighting in Syria has started to spill over that nation's borders into Lebanon and Israel. Meanwhile, Congress is continuing to pressure the White House to do something to aid the Syrian rebels in their fight against the Assad regime who has been helped by a recent influx of fighters from Hezbollah." John Reed at Killer Apps.
Turkey and Twitter. "Social networking sites, such as Twitter ... appear to be playing a prominent role in the coordination of the still ongoing protests in Turkey. There is abundant evidence suggesting that social media have been pivotal in the spread of information, especially in the absence of coverage by traditional media [1]; to recruit and mobilize protesters [2]; to coordinate the movement without the infrastructure of formal organizations [3]; and to draw the attention and support of the international community [4] ... The protests in Turkey add up to a long list of popular uprisings and massive demonstrations around the globe that took shape and gained momentum with the help of social media. " Sandra Gonzalez-Bailon and Pablo Barbera at the Monkey Cage.
Pollution is being sent across state lines, purposefully. "Political scientists ... report that air polluting facilities in the United States are disproportionately likely to be located near downwind borders. When the breeze picks up, noxious emissions are hustled out of state and become someone else’s problem. The pattern highlights one of the difficulties facing pollution control efforts in the country. States play a major role in implementing U.S. environmental policies, but they also have an incentive to export the environmental and health costs of economic development across state lines." Danny Hayes at Wonkblog.
6 changes Hillary Clinton made to her Twitter bio. Hunter Schwarz at Buzzfeed.
The funniest reactions to Putin's divorce announcement. The Atlantic.
Syrian rebels refuse to attend peace talks until they receive arms. "The Syrian opposition will not attend the proposed Geneva conference on the crisis in Syria unless rebel fighters receive new supplies of arms and ammunition, the top rebel military commander said Friday. 'If we don’t receive ammunition and weapons to change the position on the ground, to change the balance on the ground, very frankly I can say we will not go to Geneva,' Gen. Salim Idris said in a telephone interview from his headquarters in northern Syria. 'There will be no Geneva.'" Michael Gordon at the New York Times.
The US has about 5,000 troops near Syria. "The Pentagon totally pinky-swears that this has nothing to do with Syria. It just happens to have sent 5,000 troops to neighboring Jordan to participate in a nine-day air defense, disaster relief and humanitarian assistance exercise ... The timing is awfully convenient. The fighting in Syria has started to spill over that nation's borders into Lebanon and Israel. Meanwhile, Congress is continuing to pressure the White House to do something to aid the Syrian rebels in their fight against the Assad regime who has been helped by a recent influx of fighters from Hezbollah." John Reed at Killer Apps.
Turkey and Twitter. "Social networking sites, such as Twitter ... appear to be playing a prominent role in the coordination of the still ongoing protests in Turkey. There is abundant evidence suggesting that social media have been pivotal in the spread of information, especially in the absence of coverage by traditional media [1]; to recruit and mobilize protesters [2]; to coordinate the movement without the infrastructure of formal organizations [3]; and to draw the attention and support of the international community [4] ... The protests in Turkey add up to a long list of popular uprisings and massive demonstrations around the globe that took shape and gained momentum with the help of social media. " Sandra Gonzalez-Bailon and Pablo Barbera at the Monkey Cage.
Polisci
Miscellaneous
6 changes Hillary Clinton made to her Twitter bio. Hunter Schwarz at Buzzfeed.
The funniest reactions to Putin's divorce announcement. The Atlantic.
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