The Economy
The Aftermath of the Recession
The rating agencies and their role in the financial crisis. "The nation's two top ratings companies, Moody's and S&P, have for many years been shameless tools for the banks, willing to give just about anything a high rating in exchange for cash ... The financial crisis happened because AAA ratings stopped being something that had to be earned and turned into something that could be paid for ... 2008 was to the American economy what 9/11 was to national security ... If you can imagine a post-9/11 scenario where there were no metal detectors at airports and people could walk on carrying chain saws and meat cleavers, you get a rough idea of what was done to reform the ratings process." Matt Taibbi at Rolling Stone.
So much for fixing the mortgage system. "The federal government took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ... in 2008, and here’s what Congress has done since then ... Nothing. To make matters worse, the mortgage agencies have ... become astoundingly profitable, weakening political enthusiasm for reform even further. If the status quo continues, the consequences aren’t pretty ... The federal government ... would take a huge hit if the housing market were to collapse ... People who can’t qualify under the government’s lending parameters have a hard time finding private financing. Finally an effectively nationalized system is a terrible environment for innovation." Lydia DePillis at Wonkblog.
Casinos
Domestic Violence
You can be fired for being a victim of domestic violence in all but six states. "Just six, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, New York, Oregon, and Rhode Island, have laws on the books that bar employment discrimination against victims of domestic abuse or sexual assault ... State Senators in California introduced a non-discrimination bill in February, which has been referred to committee ... The Bureau of Labor Statistics has found that only about 15 percent of employers have a workplace policy that specifically addresses domestic violence ... The loss of a job thanks to abuse can end up cutting off a lifeline ... Three-quarters of women report staying with their abuser ... because of economic reasons." Bryce Covert at Think Progress.
Exports
They might be about to take a hit. "After Fed chairman Ben Bernanke’s press conference on Wednesday, the dollar started climbing against major developed nation currencies as well – rising nearly a percent against the euro and the British pound, and around 1.5 percent against the Japanese yen. The dollar index, measuring its value against six other major currencies, rose 1 percent Wednesday and was up another 0.5 percent Thursday. If that global trend continues, it makes U.S. products – from soybeans to trucks and airplanes – more expensive overseas." Howard Schneider at the Washington Post.
Internships
The moral problem of unpaid internships. "Last week, a federal judge ... ruled that three unpaid internships for Fox Searchlight Pictures were in violation of the Fair Labor Standards Act ... Unfortunately, Pauley’s decision didn’t address the biggest moral objection to unpaid internships: they’re starkly inegalitarian. Wealthier kids are in a much better position to work free of charge than non-wealthy kids, especially when you take into account the burden of college debt. Giving the rich more opportunities for career advancement than the poor isn’t against the law ... But rigging career success to favor rich kids does violate most people’s innate sense of fairness." Timothy Noah at MSNBC.
Tax Policy
Our tax system targets workers. "Imagine a society with two tax systems. One taxes the wealth people have accumulated. The other taxes the labor people perform. This society seems to be getting along well enough, raising enough tax revenue to finance the public goods and services that voters ... want to see supported. Now imagine that lawmakers have decided to cut the tax rates on wealth and raise them on labor. At the same time, the amount of wealth subject to the lower tax rates is rising as income from labor is shrinking. That society ... is asking for trouble. In real life, would any society choose to take such an unsustainable course? One already has — the United States since 1980." Bob Lord and Sam Pizzigati at the LA Times.
Miscellaneous
People are mean to their unattractive co-workers. "A study led by an associate management professor at Michigan State University sought to answer the Question of Our Time: are people mean to the less attractive? The study is simple. Very simple. 114 workers at one workplace ... were surveyed to find how often they felt picked on or victimized by their coworkers. Those 114 workers were photographed. Then a group of unrelated people, who had never met the workers before, ranked their attractiveness. As it turned out, the results of Hot or Not: Science-ish Edition confirmed that those workers deemed less attractive also rated their treatment at the hands of their coworkers most harshly." Dan Nosowitz at Popular Science.
Politics
DOD
How the military is getting equipment out of Afghanistan. Or, not out of Afghanistan. "The U.S. military has decided that it will scrap some $7 billion in military equipment rather than incurring the costs and logistical nightmares associated with bringing it home from Afghanistan ... Military planners have determined that they will not ship back ... about 20 percent of what the U.S. military has in Afghanistan — because it is no longer needed or would be too costly to ship back home ... Much of it will continue to be shredded, cut and crushed to be sold for pennies per pound on the Afghan scrap market." Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.
Education
Concerns about teacher performance are intertwined with race. "A new study published by the journal American Politics Research looked at the way state legislators respond to measures of teacher quality and student achievement. The results were depressing, to say the least. The research seemed to point to legislators being highly responsive to declines in white student achievement, but they were hardly responsive at all in declines in African-American student achievement." Kay Steiger.
Elections
A new era of polarization. "We as a country continue to self-sort into ideological islands ... 'In 1976, only about a quarter of America’s voters lived in a county a presidential candidate won by a landslide margin. By 2004, it was nearly half.' And ... seismic demographic and cultural shifts threaten to make our tribalism permanent ... These new realities have changed the conversation about the role and size of government ... the line between individual liberty and the collective good ... the meaning of personal ... and societal responsibility ... We’re now at a point where people may not worry as much about all of America as about their slice of America ... We may be becoming a nation divided against itself." Charles Blow at the New York Times.
Governors display the same trend. "On taxes, gun control, abortion and a host of other issues, Democratic-controlled states are moving in entirely different directions from their Republican-led neighbors. What is unusual is that governors are often the ones leading the way. Traditionally, governors have been among the least partisan figures in big-league American politics, concentrating less on ideology than the managerial tasks of paving roads and funding schools. Today, whether fueled by their own presidential ambitions or pressured by interest groups that figure they can get more action in states than from a gridlocked Congress, governors have become more polarizing figures." Alan Greenblatt at NPR.
Previewing 2014: gubernatorial edition. "If you’re looking for a major difference between the last midterm election in 2010 and the one coming up in 2014, we’ve got one for you: gubernatorial incumbency — the lack of it in ’10 and the abundance of it in ’14 ... Approximately 30 of the 36 incumbents will be on the November ballot — the largest number in over a half-century ... Why does this matter? Because since 1960, about four of every five incumbent governors who made a general election ballot have in fact been reelected." Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley at Sabato's Crystal Ball.
The 2016 invisible primary has started. "Several ... probable contenders are already making overt moves to court activists in key states and build organizations that can transition easily to a presidential campaign. Their maneuvers are less than subtle: Sen. Rand Paul ... has already traveled to Iowa; he'll be back for a state-party fundraiser in July. Sen. Ted Cruz ... has already visited South Carolina; he'll attend the July fundraiser in Iowa with Paul. Sen. Marco Rubio ... first went to Iowa way back in November 2012 ... All three, along with other potential contenders including ... Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Sen. Rick Santorum ... have been invited to an August forum in Ames, Iowa." Reid Wilson at the National Journal.
Energy and the Environment
Obama's climate priorities. "President Obama will outline his plan to address climate change in 'the weeks ahead,' an effort that will focus on at least three broad areas in which the administration’s rule-making powers can have significant impact, the White House’s top adviser on energy and the environment said Wednesday ... Zichal, deputy assistant to the president for energy and climate change, ... outlined three areas that are likely to be the focus of the administration’s attention: reducing carbon emissions from power plants, improving the energy efficiency of appliances and expanding the development of clean energy on public lands." Lenny Bernstein at the Washington Post.
Farm Bill
The House farm bill is a piece of garbage. Seriously. "Take a minute if you will to savor the gory details of the farm bill the U.S. House of Representatives is passing this year. It sharply cuts the SNAP program that gives money to poor people so they can buy food but preserves ample funds to subsidize American farmers. There's not a ton to be said about this, but suffice it to say that farmers have higher incomes than the average American while SNAP recipients have lower incomes than the average American. So basically instead of having the federal government redistribute income to the poor, the House farm bill will redistribute tax dollars to the wealthy. It's outrageous." Matthew Yglesias at Slate.
Luckily, it got voted down. Here's what was in it. Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.
What happens if the House can't pass a farm bill? "In theory, the country would eventually revert to the agricultural rules written back in 1949, when the last permanent farm bill was enacted (subsequent bills have all been temporary). That 1949 act was crafted for a very different United States, with smaller crop production and higher consumer prices. So, for instance, dairy prices would skyrocket once outdated price supports came back into effect. Not everything would revert, though: Other programs, such as food stamps and crop insurance, would continue indefinitely without changes, since those are permanent programs." Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.
Spending hypocrisy. "Unfortunately, even though congressional Republicans are looking to cut domestic spending, most of them regard agriculture subsidies as an especially meritorious program, not an especially awful one. Some of them want to cut it deeply or even do away with it, but not enough. And the main dynamic that prevents reform, and the reason the farm bill ultimately went down on the House floor today, is that the conservatives who do want to cut agriculture subsidies will only do it if they can also kick the living crap out of the poor." Jonathan Chait at New York Magazine.
FBI
The FBI uses surveillance drones. "The head of the Federal Bureau of Investigation acknowledged Wednesday that his agency uses drones to conduct surveillance in the United States, but said it does so rarely. Asked about drones at a Senate hearing, FBI director Robert Muellersaid the agency uses them 'in a very, very minimal way, very seldom.' Federal agencies have been using drones for years to monitor the northern and southern borders of the U.S., and those drones have occasionally been deployed to help domestic law-enforcement agencies like the FBI." Devlin Barrett at the Wall Street Journal.
Fiscal Fights
Just because the deficit is decreasing doesn't mean big business will stop clamoring for entitlement cuts. "If you thought that recent good news about the federal budget deficit would calm elite clamoring for cuts to Social Security and Medicare, the US Chamber of Commerce has other news for you. Today Bruce Josten, their executive VP for government affairs, delivered a speech and launched a new initiative around the urgent need to cut these programs." Matthew Yglesias at Slate.
Guess what's taking a hit from the sequester? "Due to a shortfall in funding, the Pentagon has been forced to forgo its usual investigations to update security clearances for contractors who work on some of the most highly classified projects in the country. As a result of sequestration, the Pentagon is implementing across-the-board, untargeted cuts of approximately $41 billion in 2013. One of the programs hit by these blunt reductions is theDefense Security Service (DSS), the section of the Defense Department (DOD) tasked with issuing security clearances to the thousands of civilian staffers and contractors who work within the Pentagon." Hayes Brown at Think Progress.
The case for a cigarette tax, in one graphic. Ezra Klein at Wonkblog.
GOP
What rebranding? "What have Republicans shown the nation lately? There was a ... big fight over an anti-abortion bill that can't pass. In the states, we see a focus on culture-war issues, including state-mandated, medically-unnecessary ultrasounds. On Capitol Hill, most Republican lawmakers are running around talking about 'amnesty' and 'illegals,' ... On the horizon, many in the GOP are already planning another debt-ceiling crisis ... Party leaders hoped to apply some lessons from 2012 and move the party forward, but half-way through 2013, it's clear Republicans are moving backwards." Steve Benen at Maddowblog.
Congress is endangering the rebrand. "If the House GOP wants to block immigration reform ... the GOP rebrand is in trouble ... There’s the well-known problem with Hispanics ... But the failure of immigration reform bodes poorly for the GOP’s 'rebrand,' even beyond the direct consequences with Hispanic voters. It suggests that Republicans are more interested in preventing the passage of legislation than improving the party's chances in national elections ... Obstruction is hurting the GOP rebrand ... The GOP’s stubborn resistance to ... background checks has added a new, losing wedge issue to the 2016 election. Now ... immigration reform threatens an opportunity to get rid of another losing issue." Nate Cohn at the New Republic.
Don't expect any changes. "It's as if they didn't learn a thing from the 2012 elections. Republicans are on the same suicide mission ... trying to block immigration reform ... roll back the clock on abortion rights ... and stop gay marriage ... Why can't Republicans learn? ... The real answer is the Republican base is far more entrenched, institutionally, than was the old Democratic base. And its power is concentrated in certain states -- most of the old Confederacy plus Arizona, Alaska, Indiana, and Wisconsin -- which together exert more of a choke-hold on the Republican national party machinery than the old Democrats, spread widely but thinly over many states, exerted on the Democratic Party." Robert Reich at the Huffington Post.
The farm bill debacle shows Boehner needs Pelosi. "This is useful ... as a reminder of the degree to which the House GOP leadership needs Democrats to get things done, given its inability to count on the support of House conservatives ... 'This underscores that Boehner cannot pass bills on his own,' ... 'He can’t do anything with only Republicans. The real power center in the House is not Boehner. It’s not Cantor. It’s not Ryan. It’s not McCarthy. It’s the extreme right. This shows the real dilemma ahead for a Speaker who is very weak and very conscious of his weakness within the party.'" Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.
Guns
Sen. Joe Manchin vs the NRA. "If you want to get a sense of whether the Manchin-Toomey expansion of background checks has any chance of passing the Senate ... keep an eye on the one-man war Senator Joe Manchin has launched against the NRA. The NRA had aired an ad targeting Manchin over his advocacy on behalf of expanded background checks, apparently to show that he’d pay a price for his apostasy in the deep red state of West Virginia. Manchin’s response? To hit back hard — and go straight for the NRA’s throat. If it works, Manchin could end up proving that an NRA onslaught can be survived and ... defeated, which could put some backbone in other red state Democrats going forward." Greg Sargent + Video at the Plum Line.
Health
Good news: Obamacare premiums are lower than expected, thanks to the exchanges. "The monthly cost of health insurance under President Obama's healthcare law is consistently coming in lower than expected. Premiums for a middle-of-the-road policy have come in below earlier estimates in all nine states that have released their initial rate information. A new analysis from Avalere Health says the lower-than-expected prices show that the central piece of the healthcare law — new insurance exchanges in each state — is working as intended." Sam Baker at the Hill.
Bad news: A lot of people don't know about the exchanges. "Few uninsured people have heard more than a little about ObamaCare's new health insurance marketplaces, highlighting the task facing the Obama administration ... According to a new poll, only about one in 10 uninsured people have heard 'some' or 'a lot' about the exchanges, which will begin signing up participants in October. Another third say they've heard 'only a little' about the new opportunity for healthcare coverage. Half say they've heard nothing at all ... The health insurance marketplaces are the centerpiece of the Affordable Care Act, and their success is vital to the law's mission of providing coverage to the uninsured." Elise Viebeck at the Hill.
Idaho
This is disgusting. "On Saturday, the Idaho Republican State Central Committee passed a resolution recommending that legislators make unenforceable ordinances that expand Idaho's existing anti-discrimination policy to protect sexual orientation." Sven Berg at the Idaho Statesman.
Immigration
The ball is in the court of the House GOP. "In the House at the moment, tomorrow is always another day. What will matter is not how many Republican votes he gets but whether a majority of his caucus quietly decides that passing immigration reform is better for the party than blocking it is. Many in such a majority might actually vote against a bill they privately want to see enacted. By doing so, they could satisfy their base voters back home while getting the immigration issue off the political agenda and ending the GOP’s cold war with Latino voters." EJ Dionne at the Washington Post.
Strong, broad public support for immigration reform. "A majority of Americans would vote for each of six different policy changes that Congress is considering as part of a comprehensive immigration reform bill. Support ranges from a high of 87% for a multifaceted pathway to citizenship that includes a long waiting period, taxes and a penalty, background checks, and learning English, to a low of 53% for a law that would vary the number of immigrants the U.S. lets into the country, depending on economic conditions ... Five of the six immigration policy measures receive majority support from Democrats, independents, and Republicans." Frank Newport and Joy Wilke at Gallup.
Maine
Nominations
Call for Obama to appoint permanent IGs. "Some of the government's largest cabinet agencies, including the departments of Defense, State, Interior and Homeland Security, haven't had permanent inspectors general in place for one to five years, raising concerns ... that the Obama administration isn't sufficiently policing itself ... Some large departments haven't had permanent watchdogs in place for years ... While the departments ... have acting officials or deputies in place, some people say that a permanent leader would likely be more effective ... Sen. Tom Coburn ... and 15 other senators wrote to President Barack Obama ... to urge him to nominate people to fill the vacancies." Jared Favole at the Wall Street Journal.
North Carolina
Bad policy. "North Carolina's governor, hoping to resume executions in his state, on Wednesday signed the repeal of a law that has allowed death row inmates to seek a reduced sentence if they could prove racial bias affected their punishment. The Racial Justice Act, the only law of its kind in the United States, had led to four inmates getting their sentences changed to life in prison without parole after taking effect in 2009. Supporters said the historic measure addressed the state's long record of racial injustice in its capital punishment system." Colleen Jenkins at Reuters.
President Obama
Partisanship prevents large shifts in Obama's approval rating. "Here’s the truth about President Obama’s job approval numbers: They don’t move around all that much ... New numbers ... are remarkably unchanged ... despite the fact that the past five and a half months have seen the failure of the White House’s attempt to change gun laws, the IRS scandal, evidence of an improving economy, the NSA revelations and plenty of other 'major' news events ... And, there’s a very simple explanation ... It’s partisanship ... At least 80 percent of Republicans disapprove ... At least 80 percent of Democrats approve ... Independents are almost evenly split ... That’s true regardless of any external events." Chris Cillizza at the Fix.
Prisons
The economics of the death penalty. "A death penalty trial costs the state ... millions of dollars more than a non-capital trial ... It costs more to execute a criminal in the United States than to lock him up in prison for life ... Death row inmates must be held in expensive maximum security prisons ... and that the methods of execution, such as lethal injection, have been challenged in court as inhumane. But the main reason is that court cases seeking the death penalty cost more than an ordinary trial: they take more time, require the jury be more carefully vetted, necessitate more expert witnesses, and invite more appeals ... The financial costs of the death penalty are enormous." Alex Mayyasi at Priceonomics.
SCOTUSwatch
Another ruling to help big business. "In ... American Express v. Italian Colors Restaurant, the Supreme Court ... issued yet another decision making it easier for big corporations to ... screw over consumers and small businesses. Thursday's 5-3 decision affirmed the right of big corporations to use mandatory arbitration clauses in contracts to force small businesses to challenge monopolistic practices in private arbitration rather than ... class actions ... Justice Antonin Scalia ... boils down to this ... If a big company breaks the law and screws you, but you signed a contract with an arbitration clause giving away your right to sue or bring class action, you don't have a case, even if federal law says you do." Stephanie Mencimer at Mother Jones.
The States
The new liberal federalism. "Historically, federalism has often meant conservative states asserting their sovereignty in the face of the federal government—most damningly, in the bad old days of Jim Crow. But that traditional understanding of state power no longer matches the country’s political reality. Think of the states advancing causes like gay marriage (12 and counting) or the legalization of marijuana (18, including those allowing medical marijuana) ... Racial and other minorities—the groups that progressives worry about most—are actually thriving at the state and local levels." Emily Bazelon at the Atlantic.
Wisconsin
International
Global
MERS is bad. And it's spreading. "A mysterious new respiratory virus that originated in the Middle East ... appears more deadly than SARS ... More than 60 cases of ... MERS, including 38 deaths, have been recorded by the World Health Organization in the past year, mostly in Saudi Arabia ... Cases have continued to trickle in, and there appears to be an ongoing outbreak in Saudi Arabia. MERS cases have also been reported in Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Tunisia ... MERS appears far more lethal. Compared to SARS' 8 percent death rate, the fatality rate for MERS in the Saudi outbreak was about 65 percent." Maria Cheng at the Associated Press.
Asia
6 reasons that Kim Jong Un is in trouble. Sokeel Park at the Atlantic.
Europe
The first female Czech prime minister? "The ruling Czech Civic Democrats have proposed lower house speaker Miroslava Nemcova as the next prime minister following the resignation of Petr Necas in a corruption scandal, the party said on Wednesday. The popular Nemcova, 60, would be the Central European country's first woman prime minister, but the center-right party needs the consent of coalition partners and President Milos Zeman to have her lead the cabinet." Jan Lopatka and Jason Hovet at Reuters.
Middle East
Assad is facing currency problems. "Even as President Bashar al-Assad of Syria is proclaiming battlefield momentum ... he appears to be facing a new threat: a rapidly weakening currency ... The Syrian pound, fell about 30 percent in value against the dollar over the weekend ... Money traders and economists said the plunge might have been accelerated by the apparent unwillingness — or inability — of Syria’s Central Bank to halt it by buying pounds with dollars or euros, suggesting the government’s supply of foreign exchange reserves is running low." Rick Gladstone at the New York Times.
Don't hold your breath on Iranian reform. "The upside is that Hasan Rowhani won on Friday's election because Iranian voters were intent on showing their leaders that they prefer as their president a man who suggests even the most minute revisions reigning order ... But the fact remains that, even if Rowhani wanted to implement even more far-reaching changes, Iran's current power structure gives the president minimal space to do so. Iranian voters may have signaled their desire for reform by voting for Rowhani, but that doesn't mean they're any likelier to get it." Christian Caryl at the Democracy Lab.
Taliban power sharing? "The Taliban have expressed their readiness to share power in Afghanistan a day after the hard-line Islamic group opened a political office in Qatar." Radio Free Europe.
Not if they're only talking to themselves. "A fresh effort to end Afghanistan's 12-year-old war was in limbo on Thursday after a diplomatic spat about the Taliban's new Qatar office delayed preliminary discussions between the United States and the Islamist insurgents. A meeting between U.S. officials and representatives of the Taliban had been set for Thursday in Qatar but Afghan government anger at the fanfare surrounding the opening of a Taliban office in the Gulf state threw preparations into confusion." Amena Bakr at Reuters.
Conclusions from the Arab Spring - it's better to be a monarch. "Despite the pining for democracy by the Muslim masses, it's comparatively safe to be a king or sultan. Royal families have survived better in this age of upheaval than secular autocrats, despite the latter's pretension to revolutionary traditions. No Arab royal family has been toppled, and most have made deft adjustments in the face of public unrest. Compare that with military dictators and security service thugs who have either been killed, driven into exile or who are fighting quite bloodily for their survival." Robert Kaplan at Stratfor.
North America
Canada is the latest country to institute a mask ban. "The list of oppressive countries legislating the wearing of masks keeps growing: the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and now ... Canada. Yes, Canada ... The new law, which takes effect immediately, makes it illegal to wear a mask in Canada 'during a riot or unlawful assembly.' ... Those caught wearing masks during riots could spend up to six months in jail, not including additional charges for rioting; masked miscreants caught 'inciting' a riot face a potential 10-year sentence. CBC reports that 'exceptions can be made if someone can prove they have a 'lawful excuse' for covering their face such as religious or medical reasons.'" J. Dana Stuster at Foreign Policy.
Science
The science of why people don't believe science. "An array of new discoveries in psychology and neuroscience has further demonstrated how our preexisting beliefs, far more than any new facts, can skew our thoughts and even color what we consider our most dispassionate and logical conclusions. This tendency toward so-called 'motivated reasoning' helps explain why we find groups so polarized over matters where the evidence is so unequivocal: climate change, vaccines, 'death panels,' the birthplace and religion of the president ... and much else. It would seem that expecting people to be convinced by the facts flies in the face of, you know, the facts." Chris Mooney at Medium.
Miscellaneous
Google admits that brainteasers aren't useful for making hiring decisions. "Google has admitted that the headscratching questions it once used to quiz job applicants (How many piano tuners are there in the entire world? Why are manhole covers round?) were utterly useless as a predictor of who will be a good employee. 'We found that brainteasers are a complete waste of time,' Laszlo Bock, senior vice president of people operations at Google, told the New York Times. 'They don’t predict anything. They serve primarily to make the interviewer feel smart.'" Adam Pasick at Quartz.
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