Thursday, June 13, 2013

Friday: 6/7/13

NSA


The Overview


Understanding Obama's priorities. "'When I came into this office, I made two commitments that are more important than any commitment I made: Number one, to keep the American people safe; and number two, to uphold the Constitution. And that includes what I consider to be a constitutional right to privacy and an observance of civil liberties.' Note which one Obama listed first. Right or wrong, that’s how he’s defined the role. National security comes first. Everything else makes sense once you accept that basic fact. Now, you may see this as a false choice, which is fine; but Obama’s straight up declaration of his priorities is still key to understanding this whole debate." Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.

Which are, more or less, standard priorities shared by leaders of both major parties.  "Basically, Obama's record on national security and civil liberties issues has been crystal clear for a long time: He falls squarely into the mainstream of the elite, bipartisan, Beltway consensus on this stuff. He always has, just like every president before him. This isn't the fourth term of the George Bush presidency, as so many people like to put it, but more like the 16th term of the Eisenhower presidency."  Kevin Drum at Mother Jones.

Security still trumps liberty. "The 'security > privacy' equation has governed decisions made by a Republican and now a Democratic Administration since Sept.11, 2001. Barring a wholesale change in public sentiment, which seems extremely unlikely, that same approach is likely to predominate not only through the final three years of Barack Obama’s presidency but also in the next administration — no matter which party wins the White House in 2016." Chris Cillizza at the Fix.

NSA leaks pit Obama against the left. "Revelations the National Security Agency seized millions of Americans’ phone records under President Obama's watch is pitting the White House against the political left ... Unlike some of the other recent controversies, the NSA program runs the risk of pushing away some members of Obama’s political base, who have long perceived Obama as being a departure from President George W. Bush on the war on terror." Justin Sink at the Hill.

How to fix the NSA: The factors preventing reform and some possible changes to resolve concerns. Joshua Foust.


Verizon


Government phone surveillance for dummies.  Megan Garber at the Atlantic.


PRISM


Will PRISM damage tech companies' reputations for secrecy?  "Privacy is a big selling point for tech firms, particularly those that are asking to host your personal data. That’s what’s so potentially damaging about reports ... that the U.S. government has broad access to data of nine leading Internet firms as part of a surveillance program known as PRISM.  Apple, Google, Microsoft, Yahoo and Facebook have denied that they have granted the government access to their servers. But the fallout from the revelation of PRISM — regardless of whether the companies knew about the program — takes some of the shine off of these firms’ reputations."  Hayley Tsukayama at Wonkblog

The federal government's pushback on PRISM begins.  "A secret U.S. intelligence program to collect emails that is at the heart of an uproar over government surveillance helped foil an Islamist militant plot to bomb the New York City subway system in 2009, U.S. government sources said on Friday."  Mark Hosenball at Reuters.



The Economy


Jobs Day!


Everything you need to know about the May jobs report.  Wonkblog.

The jobs report, in charts.  Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog.

The jobs report and the sequester. "The Labor Department announced today that the economy added 175,000 jobs in May, a pretty good result marred by a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 7.6 percent ... The bad news here is that we had a slight (~12,000 jobs) downward revision to the previous two months.  Per usual, the private sector added jobs while the public sector shed them. But ... local government actually added quite a few jobs—13,000 in fact, of which more than 7,000 were teachers—but the increase in local government employment was offset by a large decline in federal employment ... We seem ... to be seeing some of the direct employment impact of sequestration."  Matthew Yglesias at Slate.

Jobs and musical chairs. "What we have here is a high stakes game of musical chairs, as payrolls grow at a steady, if not-that-impressive, clip, essentially adding chairs to the game. Meanwhile, more players are coming off the sidelines looking for places to sit. Last month, there were more new players than seats ... The music, of course, is employer demand and while it hasn’t been the blues of late ... neither has it been particularly up-tempo. The Federal Reserve continues to try turn up the volume ... But Congress is pushing back the other way, allowing fiscal headwinds like the sequester to slow the rate at which chairs are added to the circle."  Jared Bernstein at On the Economy.

Even as the unemployment rate increases, the report is still good news.  "The economy added a solid 175,000 jobs last month, according to new government data released Friday morning, a reassuring sign that the recovery remains stable.  The Labor Department reported that the jobless rate ticked up slightly to 7.6 percent, about the level it has been for the past three months. But the details of the data were encouraging: More people were seeking work and fewer were giving up hope of finding a job."  Ylan Mui at the Washington Post.

But wages are still stagnant.  "That doesn’t mean there are no dark clouds. The jobs being added are concentrated ... in low-paying sectors ... It is not a great sign that fully 37 percent of job creation could be attributed to these low-paying sectors. That also helps explain why wage growth has been in a rut; that is exactly what is to be expected if low-paying employers are adding jobs faster than high-paying ones ... Over the past year, average hourly earnings are up 2 percent, which only barely keeps up with inflation. Yes, jobs are being added, but for the fifth straight year American workers are not seeing any real increase in their pay."  Neil Irwin at Wonkblog.

And the long-term unemployment are being hit hard.  "Long-term unemployment remains a very dark shadow in the May jobs report: 4.4 million workers have been out of a job for more than six months ... The longer you have been out of a job, the bleaker the picture gets.  The number of people who report being out of work for less than five weeks has returned to almost the same level as in 2007. But the number of people unemployed 5 to 14 weeks is about 25 percent higher. For those out of a job 15 to 26 weeks, it is 78 percent higher. And the number of long-term jobless, those unemployed for more than 27 weeks, is a whopping 257 percent higher."  Annie Lowrey at Economix.



Politics


Boston





Congress


A profile of John Lewis.  "Lewis, now a thirteen-term congressman from Atlanta, was a leading participant in nearly all of the pivotal events of the civil rights movement—the Nashville sit-ins, the Freedom Rides, the March on Washington, the Mississippi Freedom Summer. But his signature achievement is the VRA. Of all the surviving leaders of the movement, Lewis is most responsible for its passage and its overwhelming reauthorization four times by Congress. He is the soul of the voting rights movement and its most eloquent advocate."  Ari Berman at the Nation.


DOD


So much headdesk.  "The Pentagon has been paying hundreds of millions of tax dollars a year to people and companies that don't deserve it, but its financial management shortcomings are so severe that it's made little progress in halting the errors or even measuring their magnitude ... Although the Defense Department reported making over $1.1 billion in overpayments in FY 2011 to military personnel and retirees, civilian defense workers, contractors, and others, investigators from the Government Accountability Office said that figure is not credible due to missing invoices and other flawed paperwork, as well as errors in arithmetic."  Richard Sia at Foreign Policy.

The Air Force names a woman to head their branch's sexual assault prevention program.  "The Air Force on Friday announced that it had named a woman to head its troubled Sexual Assault Prevention program, herself a much higher rank than the former director who was himself arrested on charges of sexual assault ... Maj. Gen. Margaret H. Woodward was named the new director of the Sexual Assault Prevention and Response Office within the Air Force ... where she will implement the Pentagon’s programs to lower the vastly troubling rate of assaults in the military."  Hayes Brown at Think Progress.


Elections


The difference between midterm elections and presidential elections.  "Republicans have a problem with young voters. Democrats have a problem with young nonvoters.  That simple equation, which applies equally to minority voters, helps explain why Republicans could enjoy another strong midterm election in 2014 without solving any of the underlying demographic challenges that threaten them in the 2016 presidential race ... The new twist is that changing voting patterns have vastly raised the partisan stakes in those participation trends, creating systematic challenges for Democrats in midterm elections and for the GOP in presidential years."  Ronald Brownstein at the National Journal.

Georgia, the next purple state?  "Given the demographic shifts underway nationally, there are several opportunities for Democrats and several headaches for Republicans. Population trends can change and parties can re-position themselves, but after a decade of states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado becoming legitimate swing states, Georgia could certainly be the next state to move from red to purple -- and potentially blue."  Zac McCrary and Brian Stryker at the Huffington Post.

Ed Markey will probably defeat Gabriel Gomez in the Massachusetts Senate special election.  "So far, there isn’t any sign of movement toward Gomez. The most recent PPP survey shows Markey ahead by 8, one point better than Markey’s 7-point lead two weeks ago. Such a lead isn’t insurmountable, especially in a special election. In particular, it will be interesting to see whether Gomez’s advertisements move the race back in his direction. And Markey’s campaign has been uninspiring to date, so it’s possible a few flubs ... could jeopardize his chances. But there are just 18 days until the election, and this is Massachusetts."  Nate Cohn at the New Republic.

Hey, you mean voter ID and spending cuts aren't a surefire way to win re-election in a blue state?  Whoops.  "Pennsylvania governor Tom Corbett is in deep trouble as he gets set to face re-election next year. Corbett trails the two leading Democrats in the race by ten and eight points. Fifty-two percent of respondents said Corbett doesn't deserve re-election ... So, to sum up: Cutting popular programs that people count on in order to avoid breaking a promise to Grover Norquist that you'll never raise taxes; and signing and defending a law that threatens to disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of voters, then seeing that law blocked by a court: Not a great political strategy."  Zachary Roth at Maddowblog.

The North Carolina dilemma.  "In 2016 and beyond, North Carolina will be fertile ground for Democratic presidential campaigns. Republicans, though, will maintain their advantage in most of the state’s legislative and congressional seats for a few more election cycles. After that, they will have to moderate their message—and policies. Conservative Republicans know that they’re working on borrowed time. That knowledge is spurring them to push public policy further and faster to the right while they still can. What happens when a state becomes more progressive and more conservative at the same time? North Carolinians are finding out."  Chris Kromm and Sue Sturgis at the American Prospect.


Energy and the Environment


Secretary of the Interior says no to drilling in the Atlantic Ocean - House Republicans are planning to push for it anyway. "Interior Secretary Sally Jewell said ... the White House won’t allow drilling in the Atlantic Ocean while House Republicans are putting the finishing touches on legislation to do so ... President Obama’s five-year drilling plan, which runs through 2017, doesn't offer any lease sales in Atlantic or Pacific coastal waters ... following the Gulf of Mexico oil spill ... Jewell’s remark hints strongly that Obama would veto the bill should it ever get to his desk — but Republicans plan to forge ahead regardless."  Zack Colman at the Hill.


Fiscal Fights


What you need to know about the latest sequestration fights.  Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog.

A consistent demagogue is one thing...  "Tim Huelskamp of Kansas has been one of the most vocal tea-party-backed conservatives in the House, but his calls to shrink the size of government didn’t apply when it came to bringing a new Department of Homeland Security lab to his district ... Just as lawmakers used to promote earmarks, Huelskamp and the rest of Kansas’ GOP delegation have touted the potential economic benefits of bringing the animal disease research facility to Kansas."  Steven Dennis at Roll Call.


GOP


Obamacare, the opiate of the GOP.  "To put the problem in Marxian terms, Obamacare has become the opiate of the GOP. By its own admission, the party must broaden its appeal to Latinos, gays, and young voters. It needs an economic agenda that encompasses more than tax cuts for the rich and brutal spending cuts. It has to persuade voters it’s more than just a nihilistic force bent on triggering global financial apocalypse if it doesn’t get its way in Washington. And yet, when party leaders so much as broach these liabilities, conservatives revolt and the leadership caves, appeasing them with an issue whose political utility peaked two-and-a-half years ago."  Noam Scheiber at the New Republic.

Romney is still having gaffe problems.  "Mitt Romney said he wishes Hurricane Sandy hadn't wreaked havoc on the East Coast a week before the election, telling CNN in an interview that aired Thursday the storm gave President Barack Obama 'a chance to be presidential' ... 'I wish the hurricane hadn't happened when it did because it gave the President a chance to be presidential and to be out showing sympathy for folks. That's one of the advantages of incumbency,' Romney said."  Tom Kludt at Talking Points Memo.


Health


Medicaid and the GOP.  "Last year’s Supreme Court decision ... gave states the right to opt out of ... a federally financed expansion of Medicaid. Sure enough, a number of Republican-dominated states seem set to reject Medicaid expansion ... Medicaid rejectionism will deny health coverage to roughly 3.6 million Americans ... living near or below the poverty line ... This would mean a lot of avoidable deaths: about 19,000 a year ... It’s one thing when politicians refuse to spend money helping the poor and vulnerable; that’s just business as usual. But here we have a case in which politicians are, in effect, spending large sums, in the form of rejected aid, not to help the poor but to hurt them."  Paul Krugman at the New York Times.

Why rate increases on young healthy people as a result of the ACA won't be that bad. "Most of the young, healthy people whose premiums will rise under President Obama's healthcare law will be eligible for tax credits to help with the added costs, according to a new analysis.  The analysis, released Thursday by the consulting firm Avalere Health, found that two-thirds of young, uninsured adults will be eligible for subsidies under the healthcare law. Young, healthy people are critical to the law's success — the law aims to bring them into the system to help offset the costs of guaranteeing coverage to people with pre-existing conditions."  Sam Baker at the Hill.

And the rebates policy in the ACA is allowing Americans to spend less on insurance premiums. "The requirement that insurers issue consumer rebates when they fall short of spending a certain portion of premium dollars on health care and quality improvement expenses ... are one of the more tangible ways consumers have benefited from the law ... This year, individual market insurers are expecting to issue $241 million in rebates ... bringing the total estimated savings for 2012 to $2.1 billion ... Taking into account both premium savings and estimated rebates, people purchasing insurance on their own in 2012 spent 7.5% less on average on insurance than they might otherwise have."  Cynthia Cox, Gary Claxton, and Larry Levitt at the Kaiser Family Foundation.     


Immigration


The House futilely rejects Obama's policy on DREAMers. "The GOP-held House has voted to halt the Obama administration’s policy of deferring deportation of young adults brought to the country illegally as children ... It is unlikely to become law — appropriations measures must be negotiated with the Senate, which will resist the amendment.  But the 224 to 201 vote, which broke along party lines, is an ominous sign for the future of immigration reform efforts. Efforts to normalize the status of so-called DREAMers have been the most consistently popular parts of changes to immigration law.  Republicans have opposed the Obama policy since he introduced deferred deportations in June 2012."  Rosalind Helderman at the Washington Post.

Which doesn't bode well for reform in the House.  "The immigration debate reflects a continuing rift between a Republican establishment that sees the path back to the White House through the fast-growing Hispanic community and the more ideological and conservative wing of the party. For many House Republicans who represent mostly white, conservative districts, immigration reform looks like political suicide.  But Thursday's vote suggested that even GOP members representing large Latino populations aren't willing to budge."  Beth Reinhard at the National Journal.

Reid sets a July deadline for immigration reform. "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) has set an end-of-month deadline for Senate passage of immigration reform, giving the chamber three weeks to debate legislation on the floor. 'We are going to finish the bill before the July 4 recess,' Reid said Thursday. 'We need to finish this bill and we’re going to do it as quick as we can.'"  Alexander Bolton at the Hill.

Dems unite against the Cornyn amendment. "Senate Democrats have privately decided that the amendment offered by Senator John Cornyn to strengthen border security — the latest high-profile effort by Republicans to shift the bill dramatically to the right — is too onerous and is unacceptable ...  The move is important, because Cornyn’s amendment has emerged as a key new demand among Republicans as part of their effort to make the bill acceptable to conservatives ... If Dems stick to their vow to kill the Cornyn amendment, it will send an encouraging sign that Dems really do intend to hold the line against any Republican efforts to undermine the core of the bill, i.e., the path to citizenship."  Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.






LGBT Rights


The 'inevitability' of same-sex marriage.  "The killer number to come out of the Pew Research Center’s survey on attitudes toward marriage equality is 72. Meaning, 72 percent of those polled believe that same-sex marriage is 'inevitable.' That’s an incredible statistic to ponder, especially as we wait for the Supreme Court to hand down rulings in the Prop 8 and DOMA cases."  Jonathan Capehart at the Washington Post.


SCOTUSwatch


One (depressing) prediction for the voting rights case.  "This time around the Court will decide ... that the way in which Congress chose the current states and jurisdictions which are targeted ... is unconstitutional. I expect this position to garner 5 votes and a strong dissent from 4 Justices. I expect the majority to try to downplay its decision as merely striking the coverage formula and not section 5 itself, but I don’t expect fairminded observers to buy it: because of intense polarization in Congress and controversy over the DOJ itself, I cannot imagine the current Congress passing a new set of jurisdictions subject to Section 5 preclearance. This will mean that Section 5 will effectively be dead."  Rick Hasen at Election Law Blog.

This question should be left to Congress.  "Congress overwhelming passed these laws ‑ making a judgment that the laws are still needed.  There’s good reason to think they are: Just look at how Texas tried to pass the strictest voter ID law in the nation, as well as a redistricting plan that could have ripped the economic guts out of districts represented by minority legislators. Courts blocked both laws, and these cases are on appeal to the Supreme Court.  If Section 5 really is no longer needed, that’s a judgment for Congress to make ... There’s no reason now for the Supreme Court to substitute its judgment for that of Congress."  Rick Hasen at Reuters.

Section 5 ensures that race is part of election discussions.  "Section 5 ... has changed the discourse around race ... by requiring that electoral decision-makers are not only aware of race but also are conscious of the racial impact of their actions and avoid racial harm ... This framework also informs the voting rights discourse beyond Section 5 ... If the Supreme Court strikes down Section 5, the ... do-no-harm spirit it embodies would disappear from the general lexicon of election law. Moreover, race would no longer have the same constructive presence in the rooms of electoral decision-making."  Janai Nelson at Reuters.

And it's been absurdly effective.  "90 percent of the 4,141 incidents and 93.4 percent of the 3,775 'successful' incidents – those that resulted in changes to election law that advanced minorities’ voting rights – took place in the jurisdictions covered by Section 5 ... In other words, five-sixths or more of the cases of proven election discrimination from 1957 through 2013 have taken place in jurisdictions subject to Section 5 oversight."  Morgan Kousser at Reuters.

One recent (reversible) example from Texas.  "Texas argued that the ID law, known as S.B. 14, was a legitimate attempt to combat fraud. No one could be disenfranchised, the state argued, because state IDs were being made available for free. The court disagreed. 'Many Hispanics and African-Americans who voted in the last election will, because of the burdens imposed by S.B. 14, likely be unable to vote in the next election,' a three-judge panel, comprised of two Republicans and a Democrat, wrote in their ruling last August, blocking the law ... 'If Section 5 is struck down, the Voter ID law takes effect,' Lauren Bean, a spokeswoman for the Texas Attorney General’s office, told MSNBC."  Zachary Roth at MSNBC.  


War on Drugs


Vermont is decriminalizing marijuana.  "Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) signed a bill on Thursday decriminalizing the possession of small amounts of marijuana. The new law, which goes into effect on July 1, will remove criminal penalties on possession of up to an ounce of cannabis and replace them with civil fines."  Nick Wing at the Huffington Post.



International


Africa



Another Somali pirate attack thwarted.  "The European Union Naval Force says Somali pirates who took control of a cargo vessel with 14 Indian sailors on board fled after counter piracy ships from the EU and NATO responded ... The number of attacks has dropped considerably due to anti-piracy patrols and armed guards on ships.  The EU Naval Force says Somali pirates haven't hijacked a ship since May 2012. The force says pirates have attacked four ships this year, none successfully."  Abdi Guled at the Associated Press.


Europe


The return of Russian repression.  "The first year of Vladimir Putin’s third presidential term has also been eventful: many protesters arrested, Alexei Navalny, an opposition leader, facing prison, and Memorial, a human-rights group ... under assault with other NGOs.  The former president ... has not yet been fired, but he has been weakened. His deputy, Vladislav Surkov, who favoured co-option over repression, has gone. And the political elite is being purged of 'unreliable elements'."  The Economist.

Combined with a petro crisis.  "Russia faces two challenges that will affect ... its ability to wield oil and gas as geostrategic tools. New technologies are helping other countries develop their own natural resources more easily and inexpensively, threatening billions of dollars of Russian state revenue. At the same time, to maintain the current level of production, not to mention increase it, Russia must make huge investments in exploring and recovering oil from virgin deposits ... of the east Siberian region and the Arctic shelf. The likely result is a significant thinning of oil and gas rents — jeopardizing the stability of the regime and perhaps even its survival."  Leon Aron at the American.

And Putin's divorce.  "Russian President Vladimir Putin and his wife said Thursday they are separating after nearly three decades of marriage, setting the stage for the first divorce of a Russian leader since Peter the Great and bringing an end to years of speculation about the state of the couple's union."  Gregory White and Paul Sonne at the Wall Street Journal.


Middle East


Assad sets his sights on central Syria.  "With fresh momentum from the capture of a strategic town in western Syria, President Bashar Assad's forces have turned their sights to driving rebel fighters from the country's densely populated heartland, including the cities of Homs and Aleppo.  The latest battlefield success, due in large part to Lebanese Hezbollah fighters' increasing role and the West's continued reluctance to arm the rebels, raises the possibility that Assad can cling to power for years, even if he won't be able to recapture all of the country."  Albert Aji and Zeina Karam at the Associated Press.

The UN peacekeeping mission in the Golan Heights appears to be collapsing.  "The U.N. Security Council struggled this evening to prevent the collapse of a beleaguered mission that has helped maintain peace between Israel and Syria along the Golan Heights for nearly 40 years.  The fate of the mission -- the U.N. Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) -- was placed in jeopardy this week when the Austrian government announced plans to withdraw the largest national contingent, some 380 Austrian peacekeepers, from the mission, which currently has 913 troops."  Colum Lynch at Turtle Bay.

Democracy is the problem in Turkey, not Islam. "For some observers, Turkey’s upheaval provides new evidence that Islam and democracy cannot coexist. But Mr Erdogan’s religiosity is beside the point. The real lesson of these events is about authoritarianism: Turkey will not put up with a middle-class democrat behaving like an Ottoman sultan ... There are many in Mr Erdogan’s party who ... disapprove of the prime minister’s authoritarianism and find his interpretation of democracy too narrow ... The problem is not Islam but Mr Erdogan. He has a majoritarian notion of politics: if he wins an election, he believes he is entitled to do what he likes until the next one."  The Economist.

The Saudi transition.  "In the last year, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has transitioned its top security posts from the generation that had been in office for a half century to a younger generation of princes who are now poised to inherit the last absolute monarchy in the world ... The promotion of so many younger princes into senior positions is unprecedented in the kingdom’s history, and is a reflection of the passing of the generation of Ibn Saud’s sons, who dominated the country for well over a half century. The new ministers are experienced hands; many have been functionally running their aging fathers' portfolios for years."  Bruce Riedel at Al-Monitor.



Miscellaneous


The floating forest.  "Homebush Bay in Sydney, Australia is home to the remnants of a ship-breaking yard that operated during the mid 20th-century ... One such ship was the SS Ayrfield, a 1,140-tonne behemoth built in 1911 as a steam collier that was later used during WWII as a transport ship. In 1972 it was brought to Homebush Bay to be dismantled, but fate would decide differently ... This century-old transport ship would be transformed by time into a floating forest, a peculiar home for trees and other vegetation that have since sprouted over the last few decades."  Story + Images at Colossal.

Abandon all hope, ye that enter cars.  You can't hide from the bears.  Video.

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