Wednesday: 6/19/13

Politics

Abortion

Ohio is the next ultrasound state.  "Ohio Republicans would like to get in on state-mandated, medically unnecessary ultrasound craze. A new bill sponsored by Republican state Representative Ron Hood -- and co-sponsored by more than half the majority Republican caucus -- would require women seeking an abortion to get an ultrasound as a condition of exercising that constitutionally protected right."  Laura Conaway at Maddowblog.

Democrats

Despite decline, Democrats are still beating the Republicans in the court of public opinion.  "Americans still rate the Republican Party less favorably than the Democratic Party, 39% vs. 46%. But both parties' ratings are down from November 2012. The Democrats' rating dropped more, from 51% just after President Barack Obama won re-election. Americans' ratings of the Democratic Party are now more on par with readings earlier in 2012, while their ratings of the GOP are the lowest since May 2010."  Andrew Dugan at Gallup.  

The Economy

In favor of a $15 minimum wage. "Perhaps the most powerful and elegant antidote is ... a spike in the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour. True, that sounds like a lot ... Yet consider this: If the minimum wage had simply tracked U.S. productivity gains since 1968, it would be $21.72 an hour -- three times what it is now ... Raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour would inject about $450 billion into the economy each year. That would give more purchasing power to millions of ... Americans, and would stimulate buying, production and hiring ... That’s 81 million people ... 64 percent of the workforce, and their families who would be more able to buy cars, clothing and food from our nation’s businesses."  Nick Hanauer at Bloomberg.

The benefits and drawbacks of the Texas economic model.  "Perry’s ad pitches business owners on a low-tax environment free of 'overregulation.' That’s certainly true. If you want the freedom to buy gigantic non-diet sodas in a single cup, a notorious regulation Perry’s ad prominently mocks, you don’t want to live in New York. Of course, Texas’s lax regulatory environment has other features, like exploding fertilizer plants located next to schools, the appeal of which will greatly vary depending on your desire to open an unsafe fertilizer plant versus your desire to not die in a fertilizer explosion."  Jonathan Chait at New York Magazine.

Bailouts ... for casinos?  "Earlier this week, Delaware’s casinos got a surprise windfall ... Gov. Jack Markell (D) proposed that $8 million of the state’s budget surplus be distributed amongst its three struggling establishments, to forestall the layoffs that at least one of them had threatened. That would seem to defeat the purpose of casinos: Generating revenue for states. The problem is, for the past decade ... gamblers aren’t keeping up ... There’s ... diminishing overall utility to state governments as markets near their saturation points. But ... Delaware, which derives eight percent of its budget from gambling revenue, feels it can’t afford to let neighboring states drink its proverbial milkshake entirely."  Lydia DePillis at Wonkblog.

The Fed is terrible at predicting the future - in graphs.  Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog.

Bank of America, the housing crisis, and new evidence of wrongdoing. "Bank of America’s mortgage servicing unit systematically lied to homeowners, fraudulently denied loan modifications, and paid their staff bonuses for deliberately pushing people into foreclosure: Yes, these allegations were suspected by any homeowner who ever had to deal with the bank to try to get a loan modification – but now they come from six former employees and one contractor, whose sworn statements were added last week to a civil lawsuit filed in federal court in Massachusetts."  David Dayen at Salon.

Elections

Independents are generally not who they claim to be.  "The three myths [about independents] are: 1) Independents are the largest partisan group. 2) Independents are actually independent. 3) Change in the opinions of independents is always consequential ... Our political behavior ... demonstrates considerably partisan behavior -- most of us, most of the time, do in fact for party, not candidate."  Jonathan Bernstein at A Plain Blog About Politics.

Energy and the Environment

The newest effort to quantify the social cost of carbon.  "The Obama administration is making a second attempt to systematically account for the dollar damage from greenhouse gas pollution ... The new effort is an update to an estimate for the ... 'Social Cost of Carbon,' a range of costs ... that carbon dioxide emissions are thought to impose on future generations. When the government totes up costs and benefits for ... proposed regulations, the Social Cost of Carbon is plugged into the calculation ... The new price, used for the first time last month in establishing a standard for energy efficiency in new microwave ovens, is 50 percent to 100 percent higher per ton than the one developed in 2010."  Matthew Wald at the New York Times.

Farm Bill

FBI

Foreign Policy

A thematic guide to Obama's Berlin speech.  Elias Groll at Foreign Policy.

Human trafficking leads to State Department sanctions on China, Russia.  "The State Department on Wednesday declared China and Russia among the worst offending countries on human trafficking, a designation that will lead to sanctions against both countries. With the release of the State Department’s 2013 report on Trafficking in Persons ... the State Department officially downgraded China, Russia, and Uzbekistan to the lowest possible rating ... along with Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Sudan, and Zimbabwe ... The new designations require the State Department to prepare a package of sanctions for China and Russia."  Josh Rogin at the Daily Beast.

GOP

The clown car drives on. "They’ve waxed philosophic about 'legitimate rape,' reflected on the economic role of 'wetbacks' and denounced the actions of 'brazen, self-described illegal aliens.' They’ve lamented that 'mom got in the workplace' and called out the United States attorney general for casting 'aspersions on my asparagus.' Call them the clueless caucus of the Republican Party. As ... the GOP strains to implement a post-2012 course correction, the party has found itself stymied over and over by ... a tiny rump of ham-fisted pols with a knack for stumbling onto cable news ... Another Republican lawmaker was blunter ... 'These are the same people who try to drive a wagon with a square wheel.'"  Alexander Burns and Jake Sherman at Politico.

Guns

Now, I'm no NRA fan - but this sort of thing is ridiculous.  "A teenage boy in West Virginia finds himself facing criminal charges that include jail time ... because he wore a t-shirt supportive of the National Rifle Association to school ... It was the image of a gun printed on Jared’s t-shirt that ... ended with Jared suspended, arrested and facing two charges, obstruction and disturbing the education process ... Turning this into a criminal case strikes me as incredibly over the top ... The-shirt that Marcum was wearing didn’t actually violate the school’s dress code ... Getting the police involved ... seems like both an abuse of that authority and an over-reaction. "  Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.

Health

The ACA exchanges are falling behind schedule.  "Government officials have missed several deadlines in setting up new health-insurance exchanges for small businesses and consumers—a key part of the federal health overhaul—and there is a risk they won't be ready to open on time in October, Congress's watchdog arm said. The Government Accountability Office said federal and state health officials still have major work to complete, offering its most cautious comments to date about the Obama administration's ability to bring the centerpiece of its signature law to fruition."  Louise Radnofsky and Sarah Needleman at the Wall Street Journal.

Democrats like health reform better when it's called 'Obamacare.'  Everyone else, not so much.  "Support for the health law among Democrats jumps dramatically when labeled 'Obamacare,' vs. the plain old 'health reform law' ... Favorability of the law jumps from 35 percent to 42 percent when the term 'Obamacare' is used. That’s almost entirely due to the enthusiastic reception it gets from Democrats ... Independents in the poll reacted about the same to both descriptors ... Among Republicans, 76 percent responded unfavorably to 'the health reform law.' That number jumped to 86 percent when 'Obamacare' was used."  Sandhya Somashekar at Wonkblog.

Hey, vaccine skeptics, take a hike.  "The prevalence of dangerous strains of the human papillomavirus — the most common sexually transmitted infection in the United States and a principal cause of cervical cancer — has dropped by half among teenage girls ... a striking measure of success for a vaccine against the virus ... There are about 12,000 cases of cervical cancer and 4,000 deaths ... in the United States. At current vaccination rates, the vaccine would prevent 45,000 cases of cervical cancer and 14,000 deaths among girls now age 13 and younger ... according to C.D.C. estimates. Increasing the rate to 80 percent could prevent an additional 53,000 cancers and nearly 17,000 deaths."  Sabrina Tavernise + Video at the New York Times.

Immigration

The short and long term collide for House GOP.  "One of our two major parties ... is on the cusp of having to weigh what is good for its congressional wing in the short term versus what is good for its aspirations to reclaim the presidency over the long term ... The vast majority of individual GOP House members ... know that voting for immigration reform with said path [to citizenship] is risky for them politically ... And thus we have it: something that would obviously be good for their party in the long run, supporting reform so that they can start the process of appealing to Latino voters, is dangerous in the short run."  Michael Tomasky at the Daily Beast.

The CBO kills the economic case against reform.  "According to the Congressional Budget Office, the Senate immigration bill grows the economy, cuts deficits, raises wages ... makes the American workforce more productive, and adds more than 10 million workers to an aging economy ... Few critics of immigration reform really base their opposition on concerns about the ... economy. Their real concern ... is cultural and sociological. But that’s dangerous political ground ... That’s the real damage the CBO did to the anti-immigration caucus. It took the bloodless language of the budget away from them. It left them only with their real concerns — the ones they’d prefer not to emphasize."  Ezra Klein and Evan Soltas at Wonkblog.

Boehner seems to be adhering to the Hastert Rule.  Maybe  "The fate of the sprawling immigration reform proposal winding its way through Congress may now be in the hands of some of the most conservative members of the Republican Party. House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) said Tuesday that he will not advance any bill that did not have the support of a majority of the House GOP ... Despite his closed-door comments, Boehner didn’t rule out relying on Democrats to pass a final version of immigration legislation that could be negotiated between the House and the Senate in the coming weeks."  Ed O'Keefe at the Washington Post.

An attempt to explain Boehner's 'leadership' on immigration.  "His policy and political instincts are generally quite sound ... The Speaker didn't want to hold 38 floor votes to repeal the Affordable Care Act, didn't want to ... hold the debt-ceiling hostage, didn't want to reject President Obama's 'Grand Bargain' offer, and doesn't want to kill immigration reform. But whatever the merits of Boehner's instincts, he's simply too weak to follow them. The Speaker isn't a right-wing ideologue ... But now that he leads a radicalized caucus, Boehner seems to have determined that the only way to keep power ... is to allow himself to be pushed around."  Steve Benen at Maddowblog.

The Gang of Eight bill would be DOA in the House.  "Most House Republicans don’t care. They view the Senate ... with intense distrust ... Recently, they were forced to pass the Senate’s fiscal cliff deal, which raised taxes on the rich. Gerrymandering means the political realities of 2012 haven’t caught up with House members. The Senate is operating in a different political environment ... Conversations throughout the House Republican Conference ... lay bare a reality diametrically different from the conventional wisdom that’s led people to believe that the Senate bill could pass muster in the House."  Jake Sherman and Seung Min Kim at Politico.

IRS

Finally, a constructive response to the IRS 'scandal.' "Rep. Chris Van Hollen ... said Tuesday that he and two campaign finance watchdog groups would sue the IRS, challenging regulations that allow nonprofit groups to be involved in politics if they're 'primarily' devoted to a social welfare purpose ... that he said was at odds with the law, which requires certain groups to 'exclusively' engage in social welfare to earn nonprofit status. The IRS regulation permitting groups 'primarily' engaged in social welfare allows the organizations to participate in an undefined amount of political activity."  Paul Blumenthal at the Huffington Post.

LGBT Rights

Lisa Murkowski becomes the third Republican Senator to endorse same-sex marriage.  "Following in the footsteps of Ohio’s Mark Portman and Illinois Mark Kirk, Lisa Murkowski has become the third Republican Senator to endorse same-sex marriage ... Murkowski had previously said her views on same-sex marriage were 'evolving,' using the language President Barack Obama had once used to describe his own views before endorsing marriage rights. She had been one of the few Republicans to support the repeal of 'Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.'"  Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.

But don't expect a whole wave of GOP support.  "This morning, Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski became the latest Republican to endorse same-sex marriage. Murkowski’s shift aligns with that of the country as a whole. But it does not align with that of the GOP as a whole ... Social conservatives are a large and important element of the GOP coalition. A handful of Republican lawmakers can safely endorse same-sex marriage. But there’s no space — at all — for a broad shift. Republicans need fierce support from social conservatives, and in the short term, that means broad opposition to marriage equality."  Jamelle Bouie at the Plum Line.

New study finds significant same-sex bias in housing markets.  "A new study released Tuesday by the Department of Housing and Urban Development found that same-sex couples were treated less favorably than heterosexual couples in the online rental housing market ... The department studied 50 metropolitan markets from June to October 2011 and concluded that same-sex couples were 'significantly less likely than heterosexual couples to get favorable responses to e-mail inquiries about electronically advertised rental housing.' More specifically, 'heterosexual couples were favored over gay male couples in 15.9% of tests and over lesbian couples in 15.6% of tests.'"  Clare Kim at MSNBC.

NSA

The NSA programs are not the Orwellian state you're looking for.  "The information leaked by Snowden should cause alarm as should the loose legal oversight governing the NSA’s massive data-mining campaign. Nevertheless, the invocations of Orwell are not unlike ... the Tea Party’s frequent panting that Obama is indistinguishable from Fidel Castro. A few points of similarity ... do not establish the literary analogy. The rule here is simple: If you are invoking 1984 in a country in which 1984 is available for purchase and can be freely deployed as a rhetorical device, you likely don’t understand the point of 1984."  Michael Moynihan at Newsweek.

President Obama

The country is more satisfied with the president than the direction of the US.  "President Barack Obama's job approval rating thus far in 2013 has averaged 24 percentage points higher than Americans' satisfaction with the direction in which the country is going. This gap is typical for the Obama presidency, but represents a much greater presidential job approval premium than most other presidents since Ronald Reagan have enjoyed ... Since the start of his presidency in 2009, Obama's average job approval rating has been running 26 points higher than Americans' average level of satisfaction with the nation, and has ranged from 22 to 30 points higher each year."  Lydia Saad at Gallup.

Prisons

Good news. "The U.S. incarceration rate for youths has actually dropped 32 percent over the past decade, according to a new report ... from the National Juvenile Justice Network and Texas Public Policy Foundation. And there’s good reason to think the numbers can keep falling. Some of the drop has been driven by the general decline in crime and arrests across the country ... Importantly, another chunk of the drop is due to the fact that nine states ... have been experimenting with new policies to keep kids who commit minor offenses out of jail. These nine states have all seen an even bigger drop in their youth confinement rates since 2000."  Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.

War on Drugs

International

Global

Internet censorship isn't just for dictators anymore. "It's no longer entirely accurate or useful to associate internet censorships solely with authoritarian regimes ... Censorship functions identically when America redirects access ... to domain names about Cuban culture or hip hop music and when Vietnam redirects ones about political minorities. While one can distinguish between the legitimacy of the actions of these two states, both countries plainly censor the Internet ... We're entering a period where the debate is not so much about whether the Internet can or should be censored, but when censorship is appropriate and who will have authority to do it."  Joshua Keating at War of Ideas.

Europe

Families of those killed in Iraq can sue the UK, Supreme Court rules.  "Families of soldiers killed in Iraq can pursue damages against the government, the Supreme Court has ruled. Legal action was brought by relatives of three men killed by roadside bombs while in Snatch Land Rovers and another killed while in a Challenger tank. The judges ruled the families could make damages claims under human rights legislation and sue for negligence."  BBC.

Middle East

Syrian rebels have 'heavy weapons' at Aleppo.  "Rebel sources said Russian-made 'Konkurs' anti-tank missiles had been supplied by America’s key Gulf ally, Saudi Arabia. They have already been used to destructive effect and may have held up a promised regime assault on Aleppo. A handful of the missiles were already in use and in high demand after opposition forces looted them from captured regime bases. More have now arrived, confirming reports that the White House has lifted an unofficial embargo on its Gulf allies sending heavy weapons to the rebels."  Richard Spencer and Kafra Hamra at the Telegraph.

Syrian spillover.  "Violent sectarian spillover from the Syrian conflict reached across southern Lebanon on Tuesday, with armed clashes by rival groups of Sunni and Shiite militia members in the Mediterranean port of Sidon that left at least two people dead and forced the Lebanese Army to seal off the area ... The Sidon tensions underscored the fragility of Lebanon’s patchwork of sects, which has further weakened because of the conflict in Syria, raising the risk of destabilizing the country and the broader Middle East."  Hania Mourtada and Rick Gladstone at the New York Times.

Record numbers of refugees as a result of the Syrian conflict.  "The Syrian civil war contributed to pushing the numbers of refugees and those displaced by conflict within their own nation to an 18-year high of 45.2 million worldwide by the end of 2012, the U.N. refugee agency said Wednesday. Those are the highest numbers since 1994, when people fled genocide in Rwanda and bloodshed in former Yugoslavia."  John Heilprin at the Associated Press.

Turkey arrests dozens in a new crackdown.  "The Turkish authorities arrested dozens of people in several cities early on Tuesday as part of a determined and intensifying effort to stamp out weeks of antigovernment protests ... Turkey’s Interior Ministry said more than 70 people had been detained in the sweeps in Istanbul and Ankara on Tuesday. The semiofficial state news agency said those detained were alleged to be 'members of terror organizations who destroyed public property, incited the public and attacked the police.'"  Kareem Fahim and Sebnem Arsu at the New York Times.

North America

Morris is the best new politician in the world.  And he's a cat.  "It started as a joke between friends, but Morris the cat's bid to become mayor of the Mexican city of Xalapa, the capital of the state of Veracruz, has now turned into a social media phenomenon with a serious message about political disenchantment ... The Facebook page for the Candigato (gato means cat in Spanish) now has more than 130,000 "likes" – far more than those accrued by any of the candidates registered to stand in the Xalapa election, and more too than those of Veracruz's current governor. Mexico will hold local elections in around half of the country on 7 July."  Jo Tuckman at the Guardian.

South America

Extradition.  "The Chilean Supreme Court has approved the extradition of a former Argentine judge accused of human rights abuses during the 1976-1983 military rule. Otilio Romano has been accused in Argentina of complicity in forced disappearances, torture and illegal raids while serving as a state prosecutor in the city of Mendoza. He fled to Chile when the allegations emerged two years ago."  BBC.

Brazil deploys police to control riots.  "Brazil's government says it will deploy a national security force to five major cities after a wave of protests which has seen almost a quarter of a million people demand better public services. The national force will be sent to Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, Fortaleza and the capital, Brasilia. All of the cities are hosting games in Fifa's Confederations Cup. The announcement comes after riot police and protesters clashed in fresh protests on Tuesday in Sao Paulo."  BBC.

Economics

Sometimes, government intervention really is more effective than 'free markets.'  "Many people on the political right believe that free markets are the solution to most any problem ... ​Free, unregulated markets are not always the answer, however. It’s true that competitive markets have desirable properties, but very special conditions must be present for competitive markets to emerge. When these conditions are not met, as is often the case in the real world, free markets can perform very poorly. In these cases ... government intervention that eliminates troublesome 'market freedoms' can often be used to move these markets closer to the competitive ideal."  Mark Thoma at the Fiscal Times.

Science

This is neat.  "3D printing can now be used to print lithium-ion microbatteries the size of a grain of sand. The printed microbatteries could supply electricity to tiny devices in fields from medicine to communications, including many that have lingered on lab benches for lack of a battery small enough to fit the device, yet provide enough stored energy to power them."  Dan Ferber + Video at the Wyss Institute.

Miscellaneous

Flopping, basketball, and game theory.  "No one likes flopping, but it is not going away anytime soon ... The logic is as you might think–players flop to dupe officials into mistakenly calling fouls. There is a surprising result, however. When flopping optimally, 'good' officiating becomes impossible–referees are completely helpless in deciding whether to call a foul. Worse for the integrity of the game, a flopper’s actions force referees to occasionally ignore legitimate fouls."  William Spaniel.

The Captain Crunch scandal.  "A new scandal is consuming the U.S. Navy and one of the world’s most venerated captains:Cap’n Crunch. The legendary cereal icon’s status as a captain has come under fire after eagle-eyed writers noticed that Cap’n Crunch only wears the bars of a Navy commander, not those of a captain. In the U.S. Navy, captains wear four bars on their uniforms, while commanders — one rank below captain – have three bars."  Dion Nessenbaum at the Wall Street Journal.