The NSA
Verizon
Everything you need to know about the NSA phone scandal. "On Wednesday, The Guardian released a classified court order requiring Verizon to turn over records of all domestic phone calls to the National Security Agency. The revelation has led to a renewed debate over the legality and policy merits of indiscriminate government surveillance of Americans." Timothy Lee at Wonkblog.
What you should know about the government's massive domestic surveillance program. "The Guardian newspaper revealed on Wednesday night that the National Security Administration (NSA) is collecting information about the telephone records of millions of Americans through a warrant obtained in a secret court under authority granted in the Patriot Act. This is the first public confirmation that widespread surveillance of Americans, initiated under President George W. Bush in the aftermath of the World Trade Center attacks, has continued under the Obama administration. The program captures phone numbers and other information, but not the content of the conversations." Igor Volsky at Think Progress.
Why you (probably) shouldn't expect anything to change. "Undoubtedly, there is concerted opposition among civil libertarians to much of our 'national security state,' and much concern among journalists about the investigations of the AP and Rosen. And I don’t mean to suggest that there is no reason for concern ... But the presence of a fairly sturdy bipartisan elite consensus on domestic surveillance—whether it is motivated by partisanship ... or by a sincere belief in the value of the policy—makes it hard to imagine that revelations about the NSA-Verizon agreement will lead to dramatic changes in policy." John Sides at the Monkey Cage.
The American public is to blame. "In a normative sense, such an unusually broad act of surveillance is beyond the pale — or at least, probably should be. The reality, though, is that what the NSA did is perfectly legal. Moreover, Congress even went out of its way to keep the legal justification for it a secret. The problem isn’t that the NSA is obeying the law: the law itself is the problem. And no matter the public outcry now, we not only supported that law when it was being created, we probably won’t change anything now that its most extreme practices are being exposed." Joshua Foust at Medium.
How the Verizon court order runs counter to the rule of law. "In a democracy, the laws are and must be public ... When the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act court granted the order here ... it appears to have applied the broadest possible reading of the law ... But the problem is that we had no way of knowing it was even in effect. A law only exists as it is interpreted by the courts ... That is why legal interpretation needs to be public -- because it has the same effect as lawmaking. When it is secret, we have in effect secret law. And secret laws don't belong in democratic systems." Noah Feldman at Bloomberg.
But, technically speaking, it's not illegal. "We can complain about the policy choice, but the lack of limits in the law’s language does constitute a policy choice, not an administration 'going rogue' outside the law ... We could blame the rushed process by which the act was passed in October 2001, given the stress ... of the time, but since then this text has been renewed at least three times ... and there has been quite a lot of argumentation over Section 215 ... Congress has signed off on this language quite explicitly." Andrew Rudalevige at the Monkey Cage.
PRISM
PRISM. "The National Security Agency and the FBI are tapping directly into the central servers of nine leading U.S. Internet companies, extracting audio and video chats, photographs, e-mails, documents, and connection logs that enable analysts to track foreign targets ... The program, code-named PRISM, has not been made public until now. It may be the first of its kind ... Equally unusual is the way the NSA extracts what it wants, according to the document: “Collection directly from the servers of these U.S. Service Providers: Microsoft, Yahoo, Google, Facebook, PalTalk, AOL, Skype, YouTube, Apple.” Barton Gellman and Laura Poitras in the Washington Post.
It appears that the program became law by Congresspeople that didn't realize what they were voting for. "On Sept. 11, 2007, the National Security Agency signed up Microsoft as its first partner for PRISM, a massive domestic surveillance program whose existence was reported by the Washington Post today. That’s barely a month after Congress passed, and President George W. Bush signed, the Protect America Act. The Bush Administration portrayed the PAA as a technical fix designed to close a gap in America’s surveillance capabilities that had been opened by a then-recent ruling of the secretive Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC). It proved to be much more than that." Timothy Lee at Wonkblog.
PRISM, by the numbers. Elias Groll at Foreign Policy.
Middle East
Egypt
Kerry signed off on a large arms transfer to Egypt, despite human rights violations. "While employees of American NGOs sat in Egyptian prisons, Secretary of State John Kerry quietly waived the law that would prevent the U.S. from sending the Egyptian military $1.3 billion worth of weapons this year ... The law that allows the State Department to give Egypt $1.3 billion each year ... specifies that to get the money, the secretary of State must certify that Egypt is ... 'supporting the transition to civilian government...' Several members of Congress said ... Egypt’s sentencing of American NGO workers ... flew in the face of that very law, meaning that Egypt should not get the money." Josh Rogin at the Daily Beast.
Iran
What we can learn from Iran's next election. "Turnout at the polls will indicate how many Iranians still have an interest in the world's only modern theocracy ... Reaction to the results will signal whether the public deems the election process itself legitimate ... The new president ... may indicate who is capturing the public imagination ... The big issue for the regime, however, is the level of political engagement. Half of Iran's electorate was born after the revolution ... Since youth played a huge part in the 2009 protests, their interest in voting, their choices at the polls, and their reaction to the results could also be disproportionately important -- and potentially decisive." Robin Wright at Foreign Policy.
Syria
France and Britain confirm sarin use in Syria. "France said Tuesday it has confirmed that the nerve gas sarin was used 'multiple times and in a localized way' in Syria, including at least once by the regime. It was the most specific claim by any Western power about chemical weapons attacks in the 27-month-old conflict. Britain later said that tests it conducted on samples taken from Syria also were positive for sarin ... The French and British findings, based on samples taken from Syria, came hours after a U.N. team said it had 'reasonable grounds' to suspect small-scale use of toxic chemicals in at least four attacks in March and April." Greg Keller and Karin Laub at the Christian Science Monitor.
Qusayr is important - because of the non-Syrian players. "Hezbollah's open military intervention in Syria partly explains the publicity the Qusayr battle has received ... The battle for the town carried important consequences for the balance of power within the Syrian opposition. Qusayr is arguably the first battle in Syria to be completely sponsored by Saudi Arabia ... Riyadh has now taken over Qatar's role as the rebels' primary patron: In one sense, the Saudis can also claim a victory in Qusayr, as they have successfully put various rebel forces under the command of their ally in the Free Syrian Army (FSA), Chief of Staff Gen. Salim Idriss." Hassan Hassan at Foreign Policy.
Guess who's back? "Russia announced on Thursday that it will keep a fleet of about dozen navy ships in the Mediterranean Sea, a move President Vladimir Putin said is needed to protect his country’s national security. Putin said the plan should not be seen as saber rattling, but it comes as Moscow is serving as a key ally and arms supplier to Syrian President Bashar Assad during that nation’s civil war. The only naval base that Russia has in the Mediterranean and anywhere outside the former Soviet Union is located in Syria ... The statements by Putin and other officials mark an attempt to revive a Soviet-era practice, when Moscow had a permanent navy presence in the waterway." Associated Press.
Israel hit by missiles from Syria. "Two missiles from Syria landed in Israel Thursday as fighting between President Bashar Assad’s forces and rebels raged on the Golan Heights ... No one was injured on the Israeli side, but two wounded Syrians who came to the border were taken to hospitals in Israel, an IDF spokeswoman said. 'There were two projectiles that landed earlier in open areas in the north and central Golan Heights near the border of Israel and Syria,' she said. 'Initial reports suggest … the missiles were the result of the domestic situation in Syria,' she added, saying the 'assumption at the moment' was they had not actually been fired at a target in Israel." Ian Johnston and Yael Factor at NBC.
Turkey
Erdogan's future isn't looking so bright. "Erdogan still relies on 'his 50%' ... But I do not see him recovering from this easily. He and his party collected votes not only from the party’s main base of religious conservatives, but also from the very people that he calls 'looters' and 'alcoholics' ... In the last few days, Turkish stocks market saw the largest single day drop of 10% in the last decade, several labor unions stopped work and people of all ages, ethnic, socioeconomic and political backgrounds are still chanting 'Tayyip, resign!' despite outrageous police brutality. This is not good news for Erdogan." Bahar Leventoglu at the Monkey Cage.
Erdogan's party may end up winning in Turkey ... without him. "This last week might be a bridge too far ... Although it is unlikely that the protests will force Erdogan to resign, it is also unlikely that he will survive the uproar with enough political capital to realize his presidential ambitions next year ... His handling of the crisis has significantly strengthened the position of his rival. Several polls have already put Gul ahead of Erdogan in a hypothetical contest ... It is Gul and possibly a refreshed AKP that will emerge from the scuffle in Taksim Square as the ultimate winners." Halil Karaveli at Foreign Affairs.
Elections
2013 - Massachusetts
2013 - Virginia
Why the 2013 Virginia election matters - for 2014. "If McAuliffe can generate enthusiasm among core Democratic voters—African Americans, Latinos, women and young people — and if he can bring them to the polls, then he stands a strong chance of winning ... More broadly, if McAuliffe can replicate Obama’s strategy, then it might be possible for other candidates in contested races across the country to do the same. In other words, Virginia has become the place where Democrats can use the lessons learned from 2010 and 2012 in test runs for next year. And if they’re successful, 2014 might be less painful for Democrats than we expect." Jamelle Bouie at the Plum Line.
8 GOP governors that rode the Tea Party wave - and are now up for re-election in Obama-friendly states. "Eight new GOP governors were elected in 2010 in states that had voted for Barack Obama two years earlier and would vote for him again two years later ... They won amid angst about high unemployment and fevered opposition to the Affordable Care Act ... Now these freshman Republican governors are expected to seek second terms in their solidly blue or battleground states: Florida, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin." Susan Page at USA Today.
Chris Christie and the presidency. "Since being aggressively pursued to run in the spring of 2012, Christie has racked up numerous 'sins' against the party ... Christie may be popular among a national swath of Republican voters, but the only GOP voters that matter in 2015 and early 2016 are those who vote in GOP primaries. And ... there will be plenty of conservatives who will be more than happy to 'educate' Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina voters about the Governor's apostasy ... Christie’s win in 2009 was hailed by Republicans as proof that they could win in blue states. But ... to keep the seat, Christie can’t act like a Republican partisan." Amy Walter at the Cook Political Report.
Susana Martinez rules out a White House run. "New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez has been a rising star in the GOP ever since first being elected in 2010. Last year, after Mitt Romney clinched the GOP nomination, her name was often mentioned as a potential running mate. Now, her name is on many people’s list of potential Presidential candidates. Martinez, though, says she’s not interested: Gov. Susana Martinez has a one-word answer for anyone who asks whether she’ll run for president: No." Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.
2014
8 GOP governors that rode the Tea Party wave - and are now up for re-election in Obama-friendly states. "Eight new GOP governors were elected in 2010 in states that had voted for Barack Obama two years earlier and would vote for him again two years later ... They won amid angst about high unemployment and fevered opposition to the Affordable Care Act ... Now these freshman Republican governors are expected to seek second terms in their solidly blue or battleground states: Florida, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin." Susan Page at USA Today.
2016
Chris Christie and the presidency. "Since being aggressively pursued to run in the spring of 2012, Christie has racked up numerous 'sins' against the party ... Christie may be popular among a national swath of Republican voters, but the only GOP voters that matter in 2015 and early 2016 are those who vote in GOP primaries. And ... there will be plenty of conservatives who will be more than happy to 'educate' Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina voters about the Governor's apostasy ... Christie’s win in 2009 was hailed by Republicans as proof that they could win in blue states. But ... to keep the seat, Christie can’t act like a Republican partisan." Amy Walter at the Cook Political Report.
Susana Martinez rules out a White House run. "New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez has been a rising star in the GOP ever since first being elected in 2010. Last year, after Mitt Romney clinched the GOP nomination, her name was often mentioned as a potential running mate. Now, her name is on many people’s list of potential Presidential candidates. Martinez, though, says she’s not interested: Gov. Susana Martinez has a one-word answer for anyone who asks whether she’ll run for president: No." Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway.
Miscellaneous
Gallup's comeback. "The details in the report suggest that those additional improvements might be substantial ... all could contribute to a Gallup comeback. The survey is extremely well-funded and has huge samples, especially over a multi-week period. They’ve brought in a highly regarded team of survey methodologists, and their commitment to transparency means that analysts should ultimately be able to confirm that their efforts have paid dividends. It just might be enough to restore confidence in America’s oldest polling firm." Nate Cohn at the New Republic.
Politics
Congress
The new longest-serving Congressman. "In an institution where seniority has long been prized, Representative John D. Dingell Jr. of Michigan is about to set a new standard with 57 years, 5 months and 26 days of House service — a remarkable tenure that spans more than a quarter of the existence of Congress. On Friday, Mr. Dingell, 86, the former Democratic powerhouse who asserted jurisdiction over vast expanses of federal policy as the intimidating chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee, will become the longest-serving member of Congress in history with his 20,997th day as a representative, surpassing the record held by Senator Robert C. Byrd, Democrat of West Virginia." Ashley Parker + Video in the New York Times.
And the newest member of the Senate. "New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) on Thursday appointed state Attorney General Jeff Chiesa as an interim replacement for the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D). Chiesa will only serve for a few months, until the October special election decides who will serve until the November 2014 general election." Sean Sullivan at the Fix.
Defense
Smarter defense cuts. "We have identified seven categories of business and management issues ... that must be reformed in order to ensure that the U.S. military can continue to conduct its core missions. We estimate that reforms in these seven areas could save between $340 billion and $490 billion over the next 10 years, which would offset some, if not all, of the currently planned cuts to DOD spending ... Addressing the Seven Deadly Sins of defense reform ... will require ... support from Congress. DOD already has the authorities it needs to address the first three sins -- overhead, business practices, and acquisition costs -- but the others will require congressional authorization. " David Barno and Nora Bensahel at Foreign Policy.
7 things to know about the House's defense bill. Hayes Brown at Think Progress.
The Economy
LGBT couples are less wealthy than straight ones. "Gay and lesbian Americans are often portrayed and stereotyped as disproportionately affluent, but it's more likely that relatively affluent gay people are simply more visible. A new report by V. Lee Badgett, Laura E. Durso, and Alyssa Schneebaum for the Williams Institute at UCLA shows that in many respects LGBT couples are actually more economically stressed than their straight counterparts." Matthew Yglesias at Slate.
Education
The debate we should be having on student loans. "At a time when overall student debt approaches $1 trillion, the facts reveal that student loans aren’t loans ... in the traditional sense. They exhibit none of the qualities of modern consumer financial instruments, and are often sold under false pretenses, with the promise of a lifelong benefit that never materializes. We need to change how these loans work and have a broader conversation about what we should be doing ... to help future generations obtain a quality, affordable education, which is critical to our economic future. The roughly two-thirds of U.S. students who take out loans ... can end up in a situation most resembling ... indenture." David Dayen at Salon.
Energy and the Environment
'Miles per gallon' distorts fuel economy savings. "The returns to boosting fuel economy are smaller when starting from a higher level: Studies have found that the vast majority of people aren’t aware of this. Which is why many experts think that 'miles per gallon' is a somewhat misleading metric for cars and trucks ... This 'MPG illusion' could have huge implications for the auto market. Many people who are set on buying SUVs, say, appear to underrate the fuel savings that come from buying a slightly more efficient SUV. But ... those gains are often quite large." Brad Plumer at Wonkblog.
SMRs. "Near the banks of the Clinch River in eastern Tennessee, a team of engineers will begin a dig this month that they hope will lead to a new energy future. They'll be drilling core samples, documenting geologic, hydrologic, and seismic conditions—the initial step in plans to site the world's first commercial small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs)." Will Ferguson at National Geographic.
Financial Reform
Dodd-Frank may have passed in 2010, but implementation is really, really slow. "Only 153 (38.4 percent) of the 398 required rules in the bill have been finalized. That’s despite the fact that 70.1 percent were supposed to be finalized by this past Monday: What happened to the other 245 rules? Well, 117 have been proposed but not finalized. But 128 haven’t even been proposed yet. More concerning still, regulations around banking, asset-backed securities, and 'liquidation authority' ... the regulations most directly related to the causes of the 2007-08 crisis and bailout — are particularly slow in being implemented." Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog.
Fiscal Fights
The true goal of the deficit hawks. "The medium-term debt and deficit projects look very different in the spring of 2013 ... spending cuts have been enacted ... taxes have been raised ... factors have reduced debt service costs ... interest rates have been lower than expected ... health care spending projections have fallen ... The actual deficit and debt situation is totally different ... and yet the political dialogue on the subject doesn't seem to have changed at all ... The dialogue hasn't changed because the elites steering the discourse don't care, even slightly, about deficits or debt. What they care about is reducing the federal government's fiscal commitment to bolstering the living standards of elderly people." Matthew Yglesias at Slate.
More spending on watchdogs would make government more efficient. "The federal government needs to be more efficient ... Suggestions usually focus on getting the government to do less. Getting it to do the same things better receives little attention ... One good way to improve efficiency is to spend more on inspectors general of federal agencies, eligibility reviews for government benefits and the Government Accountability Office. ... Spending on this task usually pays for itself. Inspectors general, disability reviewers and the GAO cover their costs many times over ... If Congress were rational, it would pay for more work of this kind." Evan Soltas at Bloomberg.
GOP
The 'war on women' continues. "So how's the outreach to women going? Not great, either. In just the last week, Sen. Saxby Chambliss has said that military sexual assaults are caused by the 'hormone level created by nature;' Mississippi governor Phil Bryant has argued that problems in our education system began when 'the mom got in the workplace,' and Erick Erickson, a leading conservative pundit and activist, has appeared to argue that science dictates men should be dominant over women ... It's enough to make you recall the heady days of 'legitimate rape' last summer." Zachary Roth at Maddowblog.
Health
The ACA's newest ally: Republican Governor Jan Brewer. "Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer has become an unlikely warrior for Obamacare. Brewer is a conservative Republican who sued to topple the health law, refused to set up a health insurance exchange ... But now she’s so determined to put the Obamacare Medicaid expansion in place in her state that she’s vetoing any legislation that reaches her desk until the Republican Legislature caves ... Brewer says it’s been quite the firestorm, but she insists that expansion saves money and saves lives — and that everybody would realize that if they weren’t so 'hung up on the fact' that it was part of Obama’s health law." Kyle Cheney at Politico.
Hypocrisy. Lots of hypocrisy. "Even before President Obama signed the Affordable Care Act into law, Republicans were vowing to repeal it ... The GOP-controlled House has voted no fewer than thirty-seven times to repeal Obamacare in the three years since it was enacted. Now letters produced by a Freedom of Information Act request reveal that many of these same anti-Obamacare Republicans have solicited grants from the very program they claim to despise. This is evidence not merely of shameless hypocrisy but of the fact that the ACA bestows tangible benefits that even Congress’s most extreme right-wing ideologues are hard-pressed to deny to their constituents." Lee Fang at the Nation.
Why polling on the ACA doesn't matter. "In terms of policy-making, there’s really not much at stake in the variations of ACA’s popularity. Democrats are not going to abandon the law, at least not while Barack Obama is president. On the other side, no matter what the polls say, Republicans are extremely unlikely to give up their intense opposition and continuing demand for total repeal. Does anyone think that if the numbers on the law were reversed that Republicans would agree to allow technical fixes through the House, or to fully fund implementation, or to drop their opposition to Medicaid expansion? I didn’t think so." Jonathan Bernstein at the Plum Line.
Immigration
It's all down to the border. "A closed-door meeting of over 100 Senate and House conservatives ... on immigration reform made at least one thing clear: Republicans don’t want to do anything before nailing down the border security issue. Lawmakers — including Senate Gang of Eight members Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) — were unified in saying border security must come first. 'The discussion is very, very centered on border security,' said Rep. John Fleming (R-La.). 'There’s a consensus in that room that that is a litmus test.' Tarini Parti and Seung Min Kim at Politico.
A majority backs the pathway to citizenship, including Republicans. "The NBC/WSJ poll shows a slight majority -- 52 percent -- saying they support a proposed pathway to allow undocumented immigrants to become U.S. citizens. When told that the proposed pathway to citizenship under the legislation includes requirements to pay fines, back taxes and pass a background security check, the percentage favoring it jumps up to 65 percent, including 58 percent of Republicans." Mark Murray at NBC.
The GOP is playing a dangerous game, with electoral consequences. "The health care angle adds another dimension, one that underscores that Republicans are seriously at risk of setting back their efforts to repair relations with Latinos even further. After all, Mitt Romney recently diagnosed his own 2012 loss by flatly admitting that his campaign had underestimated the appeal Obamacare has for minorities. Now Republicans are at risk not just of killing immigration reform, but of killing it in part because of their hostility towards Obamacare ... That doesn’t seem like a particularly good 'story' for Republicans, does it?" Greg Sargent at the Plum Line.
Nominations
The balancing act. "President Obama’s defiant selection of Susan E. Rice as his new national security adviser ... underscored the newly assertive approach he has taken to appointments ever since he abandoned a potential cabinet nominee named Susan E. Rice ... The unapologetic selections reflect a conclusion in the West Wing that when it comes to choosing personnel, the president can never satisfy Republicans who will find almost anyone objectionable. But his choices also highlight the complicated second-term balancing act for a president unconstrained by re-election concerns and therefore freer to challenge Congress, yet still hoping to forge deals by courting the opposition." Peter Baker at the New York Times.
Scandals
So much for policymaking - scandal summer continues. "The Great Gun Convergence of 2013 didn’t happen ... Comprehensive immigration reform is now in very deep trouble ... The President’s Dinner Series with Senate Republicans did not ... produce any progress on budget discussions ... So all the promising prospects that were going to make this a Year of Miracles in Washington are dead or dying or irrelevant. And instead we’ve got a multi-pronged IRS investigation, never-ending Benghazi! hearings, rhetorical Molotov Cocktails being hurled into the White House by journalists over its efforts to fight leaks, and on tap for July, a good, vicious fight over Senate rules." Ed Kilgore at the Washington Monthly.
And data contradicts the Nixonian theory. "In the continuing search for the actual harm inflicted by the IRS’ extra scrutiny of 501(c)(4) applications by certain kinds of conservative groups, a new data point has popped up that’s a bit hard to square with the election-related-witch-hunt hypothesis ... conservative groups dominated the list of groups approved for tax-exempt status." Ed Kilgore at the Washington Monthly.
Maybe we should appreciate the IRS more. "Here are some things for readers to consider. The Internal Revenue Service is stocked with employees who have to keep ahead of extraordinarily complex and ever-changing tax laws, while also dealing with tax lawyers, tax experts, and accountants who make millions of dollars to find ways to subvert, exploit, or distort the law for their clients. By the standards of those tax experts, the IRS employees are overworked and underpaid, not to mention despised by many Americans for what they do ... But the knee-jerk journalistic and political grandstanding here is shameful." Norm Ornstein at the Atlantic.
SCOTUSwatch
Why the Section 5 case is important. "The Supreme Court will rule this month on ... Section 5, a key provision of the Voting Rights Act. Based on comments at February's oral arguments, most court-watchers expect the justices to strike it down. Section 5 requires jurisdictions with a history of racial discrimination in voting—meaning most southern states ... to get approval from the U.S. Justice Department before making any change to their election system. If DoJ thinks the change could reduce the voting power of racial minorities, it can block it ... And if Section 5 goes down, conservatives ... will have a far freer hand to thwart the rising power of America's minorities." Zachary Roth at Maddowblog.
International
Central America
Nicaragua and China are building an alternative to the Panama Canal. "Nicaragua has awarded a Chinese company a 100-year concession to build an alternative to the Panama Canal, in a step that looks set to have profound geopolitical ramifications. The president of the country's national assembly, Rene Nuñez, announced the ... project, which will reinforce Beijing's growing influence on global trade and weaken US dominance over the key shipping route between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans." Jonathan Watts at the Guardian.
Polisci
How voting rules influence electoral outcomes. "Voting rules matter ... Political scientists and political theorists can debate which voting rules produce the 'best' or most 'fair' translation of votes into seats. But the overarching fact remains the same: Changing the rules for election members of Congress (or any other legislature) potentially changes the composition of the legislature." Thomas Schaller at Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Science
Too realistic. "A robotic bird created for the U.S. Army for use as a miniature spy drone is so convincing that it has been attacked by hawks and eagles, according to researchers." Shaun Waterman at the Washington Times.
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